Pre-Fed Status: 100% Probability Of US Recession In 2023, Mortgage Rate Steady (US Yield Curve Now Inverted For 116 Straight Days, Implied Rate Hike Of +50 BPS To 4.50%)

Confounded Interest ^ | 12/12/2022 | Anthony B. Sanders

[Kaiser8408a]

Fun week ahead. US inflation numbers are out on Tuesday (forecast? CPI YoY = 7.3%, Core CPI YoY = 6.1%) and The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision is on Wendesday.

So, where are we sitting on Monday?

First, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve has been inverted (a precursor to recession) for 116 straight days). Second, the likelihood of recession in 2023 is 100%. Third, with the forecast of core inflation at a still numbing 6.1%, The Fed seems dead set on raising their target rate by 50 basis points to 4.50% on Wednesday.

dddd

So, as The Fed debates recession versus fighting inflation (partly caused by The Fed), we have Kevin Malone from The Office debating Angela versus double-fudge brownies:

“I hear Angela’s party will have double fudge brownies. But it will also have Angela. Double fudge.. Angela.. double fudge….. Angela. Hmm..” I am betting on risking a recession by raising the Fed’s target rate by 50 basis points.

[Kaiser8408a]

Of course, raising rates may kill the economy, but the elites in DC (and Frankfurt Germany) don't care. Klaus Schwab (aka, Dr Evil) has called for people to euthanize their household pets to "save the planet." Sick, sick man. He should run for the US Senate!

[EEGator]

A “Gavrilo Princip” is needed for Schwab and Soros(Schwartz).

[goodnesswins]

We already have a Recession...it’s the coming Depression we need to worry about...but, me, worry?