Posted on 10/05/2022 6:22:08 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
Ukraine presses on while Putin retreats: On the 224 of the war, the Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the east and the south while the Russian military seems to be in full retreat.
The Ukrainian Way of War
After weeks of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, a pattern is emerging. The Ukrainian military has been launching a two-prong attack from the north and south, aiming at an enemy-occupied city. Once it is threatening to envelop or has enveloped the city, the Russian forces retreat, often under heavy artillery fire, and the Ukrainian military captures the city and then repeats the process.
Using this town-hopping approach, the Ukrainians have managed to liberate large swaths of territory in the east. The Ukrainian forces have already done this four times, most notably in Kupyansk, Izium, and Lyman, and are setting the conditions for repeating it two more.
The Ukrainian military now has the proper manpower and weapon systems, especially long-range precision capabilities in the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), to fix the Russian forces on a particular position but also generate preponderant power at weak spots on the Russian defenses and achieve tactical depth penetration.
As a result, the Ukrainian forces have consolidated a large area east of the Oskil River close to Kharkiv in the east. The Russian military would have hoped to create a new defensive line on the Oskil after its harried retreat from Kharkiv, but the Ukrainian forces didn’t allow that. Now, the Ukrainians are approaching Svatove, which is a major logistical base.
“Politically, Russian leaders will highly likely be concerned that leading Ukrainian units are now approaching the borders of Luhansk Oblast, which Russia claimed to have formally annexed last Friday,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
Making things worse for the Russian military is the fact that with every mile that the Ukrainians advance, they are able to bring their deadly long-range weapon systems, most notably the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and its heavier cousin, the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), closer to the frontlines and thus threaten additional Russian units and lines of communication and supply that were out of range previously.
The Russian Casualties in Ukraine
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Wednesday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 61,000 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 266 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 232 attack and transport helicopters, 2,435 tanks, 1,414 artillery pieces, 5,038 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 341 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 15 boats and cutters, 3,841 vehicles and fuel tanks, 177 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,032 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 132 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 246 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Are the Russkies really retreating or pulling the old Scythian Retreat?
DPR News Oct. 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtK1t6vdafU
Yes, skepticism is in order. It should be applied to both sides.
Considering the fact the Russians are leaving their weaponry behind, that speaks more to a chaotic, fearful withdrawal.
“am not on any sides on this, they are all wrong. Not the us socialists, not the ukraine socialists, and not the russian socialists. They are all wrong and will drag the rest of the world into their mess.”
That’s my position as well. Actually I would have been in favor of Ukraine winning...if they can do it without a cent of US tax dollars. If not, too bad. They should just be grateful they won’t have BLM and trans agenda there whoever is in charge.
Second, let me tell you what I think is going on with the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Let me start with Captain Obvious–Russia is grudgingly giving up territory in Kharkov, Donetsk and Kherson, but is avoiding set piece battles. What do I mean? Consider what happened at Liman, for example. Five hundred Russian allied troops help off over 6000 Ukrainians for more than a week and then conducted a tactical retreat. It is true that Ukraine has deployed more forces to these areas than the Russians. But Russia, through its superior fire power with artillery and combat air, slows these attacks and inflicts heavy casualties on the Ukrainians in terms of men and equipment. At the same time, Russia is suffering minimal casualties. This certainly is a break with the sad tradition Soviet troops established in World War II. Millions of Soviet soldiers were killed and wounded in the battles of Kursk and Bagration, for example. Conserving force was not a priority then, but it is now.
The United States and NATO are having a field day with these events, touting these successes as “proof” that Russian troops are poorly led, poorly supplied and lacking motivation. But that is having little effect in rallying public support in the United States and Europe. That lackluster support among the general populace will fade even more in the coming months as inflation, unemployment and recession escalate in those nations. Ukraine capturing a city that most Americans cannot spell is not a recipe for whipping up public support among Americans for sending more billions of dollars to Kiev while prices at home soar and the economy grinds to a halt.
Ukraine’s so-called victories are illusory. Yes, they are occupying territory once held by Russia but they are doing so without the benefit of air support and minimal artillery fires. Ukraine is relying on attacking lightly manned Russian positions with a larger force. This comes at a great cost however, in the loss of men and material that Ukraine cannot easily nor quickly replace. Every country in a war suffers casualties. This means a country at war must have a system in place to call up reserves, train them, equip them and deploy them. Ukraine is outnumbered dramatically by Russia on this count. If (or when) the “Special Military Operation” is finally acknowledged as a war by Russia’s leaders, Putin and his generals have far greater human resources at their command. The current Russian special mobilization is calling back to duty experienced soldiers.
Ukraine does not have a secure training facility where it can assemble and train new recruits because Russia has demonstrated repeatedly over the last 7 months the ability and willingness to attack and destroy those centers. That means Ukraine must rely on one or more NATO countries to host a training base. Even with a secure training base someplace in Europe, new Ukrainian recruits will need a minimum of three months of instruction before they are minimally prepared to go to the front to replace lost personnel. I do not believe that Europe has the capability or the will to host 200,000 new Ukrainian recruits. In short, Ukraine has no real chance of replacing the troops already lost in the front lines.
The training requirements for the Russian reservists called back to duty is far less daunting. The Russian soldiers already know how to wear a uniform, march in formation, maneuver as a unit, clean and operate their weapons, and communicate within a chain of command.
The biggest disadvantage for Ukraine is its lack of an economic base to fund the war and to produce the weapons, vehicles, food and medical supplies required to sustain an army in the field. Ukraine is now entirely dependent on the United States and NATO. Those lines of communication must remain open and flowing. Otherwise, their soldiers will be left defenseless in the field.
ussia, by contrast, has a robust economy that is producing all that its army and air force requires to operate. Its factories are operating 24-7 and it is quite competent, despite western propaganda stating otherwise, to move needed troops, tanks, munitions and vehicles to the front.
The west is betting all on the belief that Russia–its leaders, its government bureaucracy and its economy–is a paper tiger that will crumble if only enough pressure is applied. That is a dangerous and risky wager. While Russia is not a utopia, it has invested its capital over the last 20 years in building up its infrastructure, developing modern, cost effective weapons systems and educating its population to a standard that surpasses anything offered by the United States or Europe. Most importantly, it has vast natural resources and minerals and the industrial capability to extract them and manufacture what it needs to fight.
The United States, by contrast, has burned up billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars in fruitless military adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan while American infrastructure deteriorates, its industrial capacity is hollowed out, it is dependent on foreign imports of critical materials to produce key weapon systems and its educational system is in shambles. More time is devoted in U.S. schools, it appears, to learning proper pronouns rather than learning math, biology, chemistry, physics and foreign languages. The recently announced failure of the U.S. Army to meet its recruitment goals (25% below the target) is not an aberration. It is a symptom of societal failure in the west.
So what is Russia waiting for? On paper, it has the full capability to crush Ukraine. I am certain that the events of the last seven months have convinced the Russian leaders and civilians that they face an existential crisis from the west. I believe that Putin’s decision to return the four Ukrainian oblasts to the Russian Federation was not made in desperation. Putin, so far, has shown no sign of panic or alarm. I have seen no evidence to suggest that he is out of touch with reality. Instead, he has worked methodically to shore up relations with China, India and the Gulf States. He realizes he can no longer rely on any hope of a working relationship with the United States and Europe. it appears that the referenda process, which culminated on Tuesday with the acceptance of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporhyzhia as new members of the Russian Federation, now paves the way for Russia to invoke the defense protocols of the CSTO. That means additional troops from allied countries like Belarusia can join the fight if needed.
It very much reminds me of a game of chess.Russia is now sacrificing pawns in the form of strategically useless territory, while Ukraine is rushing forward to seize symbolic territory without having the necessary reserves in terms of trained soldiers and equipment to sustain the attack and defeat Russia. Russia, meanwhile, is moving its Knights, Rooks and Bishops into position for checkmate. The question remains–what is Putin’s gambit?
True. Some combatants ( I mentioned Hamas) are masters of military hyperbole to sway public opinion
Yes that seems the important "tell" to me. Casualties are hard to know. Abandoned and destroyed armored vehicles are hard to hide.
The Russians appear to have lost thousands of armored vehicles (tanks and apcs, scout vehicles, self propelled artillery, etc.
They cannot easily be replaced.
The Russians appeared to be gaining the upper hand with massed artillery fires... until the Ukrainians obtained long range precision munitions to take out massed artillery ammunition depots.
Now the Ukrainians seem to have the upper hand, even dominating the air over Ukraine.
Not much presence of Russian air power beyond the front, and diminishing there.
It could change quickly, with some unknown event.
Time seems to be on the side of the Ukrainians, for now...
What truth?? I don’t see the others ideas, but I guess you just love the corruption
Thanks for your comment. 1945 seems like a credible site that would be acceptable to all:
Led by national security experts who are tired of the same old publications publishing the same tired ideas, our goals as we begin to try and answer this question are simple:
Accordingly, all of our writers and Contributing Editors come from very different backgrounds, many times disagreeing with one another vigorously.
[Sounds like us at FR! LOL]
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19FortyFive seeks to tackle the issues and questions raised above through the lens of national security, defense, military analysis, and international politics through expert analysis and commentary. We also pull together symposiums with experts who often have direct policymaking experience at the high levels of government.
However, we realize that many other issues impact our core niche that we feel we must cover to give our readers the most comprehensive perspective possible.
That is why we also cover U.S. domestic politics, economics, culture, the impact of technology, and even social issues.
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***https://www.19fortyfive.com/category/smart-bombs/
10 varied articles posted on this page in last 9 hrs
You sure the Ukrainians have killed 61000 Russkies. Could be 61001.
“61,000 Russian troops killed” does seem like a lot for just over 7 months of conflict
then again, it would explain the call-up ...
That is the big question, isn't it?
If this is a "strategic retreat" where are the projected gains?
It appears to me, Ukraine is constantly growing stronger, with more trained men, more advanced equipment, better moral.
Reality will show us which view is correct. It shouldn't take more than a few months.
If Russia uses a tactical nuke, it shows the view of Russian strength is false.
P.s How did 1945 fact check the stats pumped out by the UDM? Do they have fact checkers on the ground?
Like I told you earlier: 3-D chess! Genius Russians!
Now all they to do is pull back to their legal borders and proclaim glorious victory! Then they get to keep some of their troops alive.
1945 website claims to be non partisan yet currently featutes two big fat pics of Bidensia Dementus on its home page
“Ukrainians have killed 61000 Russkies. Could be 61001.”
“Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported as of Wednesday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 61,000 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number)”
Well, certainly possible as the article posted at 9:22:08 PM LOL
“1945 website claims to be non partisan”
Yes. The site states: “Led by national security experts who are tired of the same old publications publishing the same tired ideas... Accordingly, all of our writers and Contributing Editors come from very different backgrounds, many times disagreeing with one another vigorously.
[Free Republic is non partisan... just not the Freepers! LOL]
THIS is what the Russians and their propaganda pets need to understand:
https://mobile.twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1577412736811929601
If you going to use a site that claims ‘fact checking’ of the output it puts up, than readers have a right to know when, how and where they fact checked. If the info comes from the UDM how did they go about fact checking it. I personally doubt they bothered and the website mission statemet is hot air
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