HAS PUTIN BOTCHED THE WAR?

Powerline ^ | February 24,2022 | STEVEN HAYWARD

[Hojczyk]

Here’s an interesting Twitter thread from someone named Riho Terras, a member of the European Parliament, posted a few hours ago. Obviously we’re not in any position to vouch for the accuracy of this thread (and some of it seems dubious), but pass it along in the interest of broad coverage:

THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.

Russians didn’t have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.

If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.

Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.

Russia’s whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered.

[oblomov]

Why (in your view) didn’t we have a follow-up plan?

[NorseViking]

According to the Russian military, Ukraine sent more than a dozen gunboats to sink the ship evacuating them, coordinated by the UFAF Rivet Joint off Crimea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Pkqr6Q9Ig

[Zhang Fei]

[To be fair, why didn’t they mobilize a month ago? I thought Putin was bluffing and it was just a bunch of maneuvers. ]

---

Bottom line, maskirovka is something both countries have in common. Zelensky was stalling for time so his equipment would be in hand before a Russian invasion began, giving Putin the impression that the Russian invasion force had plenty of time to get its ducks in a row. Note that while it is said that the West is continuing to supply Ukraine, there was no guarantee that any of it will get through, given that Russian forces are all over Ukraine. Zelensky’s assumption was presumably that the equipment they got before the Russians entered would be all they got for the duration of the war. Hence the need to stall the Russians by not calling up all able-bodied men for as long as possible.

[Long Jon No Silver]

Last I looked, Uncle Sam lost in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

[Manly Warrior]

State wrongly interpreted the progress estimates at face value-worst case. Best case was about three days longer than it took.

Near the end of WW2, the US sent 10s of Ks of civil servants to conduct governance in both Germany and Japan. State in 03 had no clue that they would have to run a country...

[Long Jon No Silver]

Invitation for German neo Nazis to join the fray. A great look /s

[Vaden]

The whole nation of Russia is botched.

[BenLurkin]

Blast radius of MOAB 500 feet
Blast radius of FOAB 1,000 feet

[saturn]

As Rush said about Putin many times, once KGB always KGB.

[Justa]

So the Russians beat the Chechnyans, the Ukrainians beat the Russians but the Chechnyans will beat the Ukrainians? What, like Rock, Paper, Scissors?

[Manly Warrior]

I wasted most of my youth in uniform. I see little intrinsic value overall. I would not do it again. As I am older than my years and rather tired. I buried men who died in vain, the liberated folks in IRQ could care less. We ought to be strong at home, capable to defeat any threat anywhere, but hold our land a fortress.

I pity the families of the dead and suffer the situation of the citizens in Ukraine. Certainly, no government is without fault, but this mess is rather unwarranted, and Putin is a madman. I hope tier one folks are working a plan to touch base.

[Mr. K]

They have nukes.

What do desperate people do?

[17th Miss Regt]

There appear to be about 200,000 Russian troops involved right now. That is $100,000 per day per man. Very expensive! Or simply incorrect...

[Zhang Fei]

[To be fair, why didn’t they mobilize a month ago? I thought Putin was bluffing and it was just a bunch of maneuvers. ]

---

Zelensky played the role of a bloviating clown to get Putin’s guard down and play for time so Ukraine could obtain the equipment necessary to get the playing field as level as it’s ever going to be. It’s clear, from the way he’s staying in Kiev, that he’s a serious man willing to take hits to his personal dignity to get his men the gear they need to hold off the Russians. Whether it will be enough, who knows?

The Russians thought it would be over by now and the Ukrainians would be welcoming them instead of bushwhacking their convoys. Thus Putin’s bizarre speech last night where he encouraged the Ukrainian army to stage a coup against Zelenski even though there is zero sign of any disloyalty. He thought that Zelensky would take off for Poland in the same way that his personal valet Yanukovich took off for Russia at the first sign of trouble.

[pepsi_junkie]

I hope the Ukrainians are making this expensive and difficult for the Putinists. If they can succeed at holding the Russian off and bleed them dry then there will be no call for us or other NATO countries to get involved directly.

Or.. a jerk like Biden decides 'hey, this is easy! We gotta go in now so I can get credit for winning the war!'

[Rockingham]

Military logistics, readiness, and reliability are chronic Russian weaknesses.

[jmacusa]

The Finns did the same thing to the Russkies in The Winter War of 1939/40.

The Finns knew their territory , they attacked Russian columns on the few roads there were and kept on the move with hit and run tactics.

In the end the Red Air Force pretty much bombed the Finns into surrendering.

I wonder if Putin will do the same thing.

[MinorityRepublican]

Zelensky played the role of a bloviating clown to get Putin’s guard down and play for time so Ukraine could obtain the equipment necessary to get the playing field as level as it’s ever going to be. It’s clear, from the way he’s staying in Kiev, that he’s a serious man willing to take hits to his personal dignity to get his men the gear they need to hold off the Russians. Whether it will be enough, who knows?

He's an actor so he was able to play the part.

[dynoman]

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4041730/posts?page=74#74

[offduty]

Gen. Jack Keane made this point at the beginning of the war. He said the Russians were trying to squeeze Ukraine on 4-fronts and they had no way to re-supply easily.

Looks like Putin underestimated the will of the Ukranian people to fight for their freedom.

This could go very badly for Putin personally, he could have his own Ft. Marcy park rendezvous if this drags on. If the estimate of Russian casualties are correct, there’s going to be a lot of pissed-off Russian families whose sons were “lost” in a great conflict.