Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

New week, new madness.

Economy -

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.29 percent for the week ended Sept. 22, according to data from the mortgage lender Freddie Mac. This is the highest level since 2008, when the United States was going through a recession.

IN RELATED - According to the recent report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, builder sentiment in September fell for the ninth consecutive month.
Declining by three points, the index hit its lowest level since May 2014, at 46, with only a dip during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 being the sole exception.
A reading below 50 is considered negative. In January, the builder sentiment index had registered a value of 83. It began to decline after the Fed started raising interest rates and made mortgage borrowing expensive.

OBSERVATION - Needless to say this will tank the housing market even harder and deeper.

Invasion of Illegals -

Governor Greg Abbott today issued an executive order designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations and instructing the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) to take immediate action to keep Texans safe amid the growing national fentanyl crisis. At a roundtable discussion and press conference in Midland today, the Governor also sent a letter to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris requesting federal terrorist classifications for the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel, as well as other cartels producing and distributing deadly fentanyl.

OBSERVATION - You will only get crickets from biden et al. The chaos at the border is exactly what they want.

Biden / Harris watch -

biden repeated the bogus claim about the muzzle velocity of an AR-15 / 5.56 round.

China -

Some are still trying to make something out of the conclusively proven untrue ruors about a coup against Xi.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the their defeat, Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Retreat of Russian forces have reversed 5 months worth of effort and resulted in huge losses of equipment.

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Bad days continue for putin.

Assessment of the ongoing mobilizaton by sources ‘friendly’ toward putin and the war effort - state that its been ugly, the quality of the reservists poor, and their motivation to fight likely even worse.

Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s close ex-Soviet partners, will not recognise the possible annexation of Ukraine’s eastern regions by Russia through referendums held there, the Central Asian nation’s foreign ministry said on Monday...”As for the holding of referendums ... Kazakhstan proceeds from the principles of territorial integrity of states, their sovereign equivalence and peaceful coexistence,” ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said.

Another Russian ‘friend’ Serbia won’t recognize Russian annexation ‘referendums’ in occupied Ukrainian areas.

Russian air activity has reduced significantly with daily sorties as low as 50 some days, despite good weather conditions. This is about 75% lower than around the start of the invasion.

NUKE WATCH - I’ve added this section because of the increased discussion around the news and interwebs about the potential use of nukes by Russia. There is a lot of ‘what if’ going on out there that deserves evaluating.

US officials say they don’t see any signs that Russia is dispersing or otherwise preparing to use nuclear weapons. “While the strategic threat of nuclear use has been there, we just have not seen anything tactical to suggest there is a proximate or elevated risk at this point.”.

RUMINT -
Thoughts being bantered about on the interwebs that the progression of escalation by putin following the results of these “referendums” will be to give Ukraine an ultimatum to stop attacking Russian terroritories and if not they will not, putin will use nuclear weapons of some scale to defend mother Russia.

Russian Personnel Issues - - PROPAGANDA WARNING - Unconfirmed reports that Russia is sending newly mobilized conscripts directly to frontline.
- More military enlistment offices are being set on fire in Russia amid mobilization. Enlistment office was attacked with Molotov cocktails in Uryupinsk, another set on fire in Irkutsk region of Russia
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian contract soldiers in Zaporizhia Oblast have been informed that the terms of their contracts are no longer relevant and that they will have to continue to serve at the discretion of the military command.
- Head of military enlistment office wounded in shooting attack in Ust-Ilimsk
- A Russian draft commissioner was shot and wounded in the city of Úst-Ilimsk, Irkutsk Oblast.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”

The first NASAMS System has been delivered to Ukraine The NASAMS is made by USA and Norway , the system protects Washington D.C, and is the first Advanced NATO Air Defense System delivered to Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Russian aircraft have been getting shot out of the sky in larger numbers this past couple of weeks. This will make it even more lethal for them to be flying CAS in the future.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine has continued to make progress in surrounding Lyman to the north by making a direct advance towards the key transportation of Kreminna. Ukraine forces are also pressing eastward from Kupiansk towards Svatove - another key transportation hub.

Russian forces continue to press their attacks on Bakhmut.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic Russian artillery continues

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
See 24 hr roundup.

Reports of Russian reinforcements arriving to Luhansk via train from(?) Rostov.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Overnight there were strikes on Russian ammunition depot in Alchevsk. ~60km from the front line.
Widespread damage in Zaporizhzhia to civilian areas, as result of Russian missile strikes overnight

Russian forces launched several small scale attacks along the Bahkmut region with no success.

Crimean front ———
Ukraine continues to methodically advance on three axises towards Kherson.

Ukraine Military Southern command HQ in Odessa was hit by multiple Iran made Shahed 136 drones yesterday.
Russia attacked Odesa with several drones overnight, 2 hit military target, causing fire and detonations of ammunition, 1 was shot down by air defense

Ukrainian missile strike at Chulakivka and the Antonovsky bridge in the Kherson region

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
In Melitopol yesterday a VBIED detonated near a Russian military post. Partisan activity continues to intensify and diversify in its capability across the occupied regions as referendum activity increases.

OUTLOOK ——
Increasing mud conditions will soon put the brakes on the Ukrainian offensive until the ground freezes hard this winter. There is still no evidence that Russia has solved its logistics systems shortcomings in getting cold/wet weather gear to soldiers. This will degrade Russian troop capability and moral - especially as reluctant reinforcements arrive to the combat zones, equally poorly equipped.

Conditions still favor the continued offensives undertaken by Ukraine and there is a strong possibility that Lyman may fall by the end of the month.

The “referendum” is expected to wrap up today or tomorrow - a scam to justify Russia’s incorporation of those occupied Ukrainian lands as part of Russia. That and the mobilization will effectually prevent any off ramp for putin to stop the war. He’s doubling down on a failed operation.

Hopefully, before I hit the road this weekend I can give some opinions on putin’s nuclear options - should the mad man press the button.

Belarus -

Belarus President Lukashenka of met with Putin in Sochi. No word out on the content of their discussions.

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Europe / NATO General -

A right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party looked set for a clear majority in the next parliament, exit polls said on Sunday after voting ended in an Italian national election. The polls, if confirmed, would give Italy its most right-wing government since World War Two, with Meloni expected to become the country’s first woman prime minister.

OBSERVATION - An interesting shift in political leanings that could indicate a possible swing in general European leanings.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Serbia won’t recognize Russian annexation ‘referendums’ in occupied Ukrainian areas.
Serbian Foreign Minister Nikola Selakovic said that Serbia, a country considered a close ally of Russia, would comply with international law and the UN Charter.

OBSERVATION - Ouch! Russia is losing friends fast over this dumpster fire.

Iran -

Protests entering their 10th day with no signs of slowing down and they actually appear to be spreading even more.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Sunday defended the administration’s continuing quest to revive the Iran nuclear deal, arguing that it was committed to doing so and at the same time stand up for the Iranian people protesting against the regime.
Biden is seeking to return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). President Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and a U.S. return would require Biden to lift the sanctions which Trump reimposed on the region when he exited the deal.
“I was asking you, though, about the offer to lift sanctions off of Iran in regard to its nuclear program,” Brennan said, “because that would allow for the regime to have a financial lifeline.”
Sullivan recalled that President Reagan had been willing to negotiate an arms control agreement with the Soviet Union even as he characterized it as an “evil empire.”
“So that’s – that is what we’re talking about here,” he said.

OBSERVATION - The reference to Reagan is disingenuous - the cornerstone of his negotiations and agreement was “Trust but Verify”. As it stands, the biden plan has neither.

Wild morning - had to fix a bunch of things before I could finish this.

Globalism / Great Reset -

California has made yet another step on its way to complete reliance on renewable energy by banning the use of gas-powered water heaters and furnaces from 2030. Now, with the gas furnace ban, Californians will have to familiarize themselves with heat pumps: all-electric heating appliances that are gaining popularity in Europe as an alternative to traditional heating methods.
Touted as the way forward in heating technology, heat pumps are praised for efficiency and emission footprint but they do have constraints such as temperature and they add to electricity consumption, which could strain a grid designed for a certain—lower—level of consumption.

OBSERVATION - Once again, ill thaught out push for ‘green’ will not end well. heat pumps are simply the reverse operation of air conditioning units and their efficiency levels - even for kalifornia - are far lower than natural gas. kanifornia would do far better mandating newer high efficiency gas furnaces (95% plus efficient). /Their grid cannot handle charging their electric cars let alone increased appliance demands.

While addressing the UN General Assembly, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern warned about “disinformation,” going as far as arguing it should be regulated like guns, bombs, and nuclear weapons.
Ardern said that “a lie online or from a podium” might not kill people like previous weapons but eventually it could be as dangerous.
“But what if that lie, told repeatedly, and across many platforms, prompts, inspires, or motivates others to take up arms. To threaten the security of others. To turn a blind eye to atrocities, or worse, to become complicit in them. What then?” she asked.

OBSERVATION - Lets take this to heart, starting with all those fakebook bot attachments to wuhan articles stating that the jab has been proven to be “safe and effective” - a claim that has been proven false many times over. Too easy. But the GGR/WEF powers that be recognize the need for Orwellian control of the narrative - very evident from the wuhan pandemic as well as increasing bleats on climate change. They cannot afford to allow contrary views fo it will result in exposure that the emperor has no clothes.

Wuhan virus -

Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday that they have submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization of a booster dose of their bivalent COVID-19 vaccine for children ages 5 to 11.

OBSERVATION - Least at risk group from wuhan, high risk from the jab itself. No need at this stage for ANY emergency authorizations.

Economy -

(Bloomberg) — The US dollar’s recent rally is creating an “untenable situation” for risk assets including stocks, and in the past this kind of dollar strength has led to some kind of financial or economic crisis, according to one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears.
“While hard to predict such ‘events,’ the conditions are in place for one,” Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note, referencing the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2012 sovereign debt crisis and the end of the tech-stock bubble in 2000. The US Dollar Index has risen 19% this year, while US stocks have plunged 23%.
Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp. strategists, citing EPFR Global data, said on Friday that investors are flocking to cash and shunning almost every other asset class as they turn the most pessimistic since the global financial crisis.
“What’s amazing is that this dollar strength is happening even as other major central banks are also tightening monetary policy at a historically hawkish pace,” Morgan Stanley’s Wilson wrote. “If there was ever a time to be on the lookout for something to break, this would be it.”

OBSERVATION - Folks on the front lines so to speak of the economy are seeing the signs, and they just don’t match up with the administration’s narrative. Last sentence above says volumes - “If there was ever a time to be on the lookout for something to break, this would be it.”

The world is heading toward the tightest grain inventories in years despite the resumption of exports from Ukraine, as the shipments are too few and harvests from other major crop producers are smaller than initially expected, according to grain supply and crop forecast data.
Poor weather in key agricultural regions from the United States to France and China is shrinking grain harvests and cutting inventories, heightening the risk of famine in some of the world’s poorest nations.

By the end of the 2022/23 crop year, the world’s buffer stocks of corn will be enough for just 80 days’ worth of consumption, down 28% from five years ago and the lowest level since 2010/11, according to figures compiled for Reuters by the International Grains Council, an intergovernmental organization.
That would be fewer days of corn stocks than the world had in 2012, when the last global food crisis spurred riots.
In related - The USDA’s Emergency Relief Program (ERP) payments increased more than $170 million (2.5%) in the last week following worsening harvest expectations for corn and wheat.

OBSERVATION - Concern is growing (no pun intended) over next years harvest. Continuation of La Nina and global conflicts could push food supplies over the edge. Already this year alone major food exporters like Ukraine and India have not been able to meet their historic export levels - Ukraine because of the war and India due to droughts. Add to it the lack of fertilizer and the outlook becomes even more challenging.

(Bloomberg) — Monday brought a stark warning for Wall Street daredevils: Stocks are still in free fall and bearish sentiment is far from getting exhausted — especially with hawkish central bankers rattling recession-obsessed markets. The S&P 500 just sank to the lowest since December 2020, bringing this month’s losses to nearly 8%, as the pound weakened to records while commodities buckled under the weight of a hulked-up dollar. US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year rate climbing as much as 21 basis points to 3.898%, its highest level since April 2010.
Ned Davis Research now sees a 98% chance of a looming global recession while Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett warns earnings optimists are sleepwalking off a cliff. With bad news around the world piling up, selling pressure is still coming thick and fast for an equity market that’s already enduring its worst performance since 2008.

OBSERVATION - All these indicators are running contrary to the WH narrative of happy days are here again. Forces are in motion that may cause an economic implosion by election day. How Americans will respond is yet to be seen.

FedEx has announced plans to increase its general tariff rates by its biggest margin as the company grapples with inflation and slowing business.
“Effective January 2, 2023, FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, and FedEx Home Delivery rates will increase by an average of 6.9 percent,” the company said in a news release on Sept. 22. The general rate increase of 6.9 percent is the largest annual hike in the company’s history, according to FreightWaves.

OBSERVATION - These rate increases just point out that the wave of current high inflation is no where near complete and that pressures that will continue inflation are projected to keep up well into 2023.

CW2/Domestic violence -

MSNBC’s national affairs analyst John Heilemann said Monday on “Morning Joe” that former President Donald Trump supporters were ready to take up arms and press the tactics that lead to a civil war.
Heilemann said, “He knows the path for him forward is always about division, anger, energy. The division, dividing the country, reducing the core of his base down but at the same time making that into a sauce of a kind, right? It’s like he reduces it down. It gets stronger, more virulent, more toxic, also more energized, and also more violent.”

OBSERVATION - So far the only ones who’ve committed violence have been predominantly the left. Media bias purposefully fails to report that fact. Lets be honest. Many on the right are prepared for violence from the left - we won’t start the fight, but we sure will finish it.

The Elmer Geronimo Pratt Gun Club (EGPGC), an armed black identitarian group, held a march for reparations with the Foundational Black Americans movement in Austin, Texas, over the weekend. They called for an end to illegal immigration and demanding that President Biden close the borders.
Some of the activists chanted ‘close the borders’ and ‘take your a** home’ as they marched toward the Texas Capitol in the ‘Second Amendment Unity Walk’ on Saturday.
The march was led by The Elmer ‘Geronimo’ Pratt Pistol & Rifle Gun Club. Their demands also included reparations for descendants of enslaved people and a hate crime bill protecting Black Americans.

OBSERVATION - Another evolution of leftist preparation for domestic violence. Since 2020, BLM/Antifa et al have been pushing gun ownership and training and have made progress in incorporating weapons into their protest ‘doctrines’. However, this protest has an interesting twist in that they are very anti-illegal immigration. Suggesting that there is a schism between violent elements of BLM affiliated groups like ‘Geronimo’ and Antifa wich has been very pro-illegal of recent.

Two volunteers campaigning for Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott were reportedly attacked on Saturday by a man who damaged their car. The incident, which occurred near Houston in Humble, Texas, involved an unidentified man allegedly chasing the volunteers through a neighborhood and trying to drag them out of their car. The man allegedly struck both side view mirrors before police were called and responded at the scene.

OBSERVATION - No word on the specifics on the culprits, who were arrested. However, expect political violence to increase as the midterms get closer. Expect it from the left - clearly documented to be the source of such violence - counter to the DoJ/FBI claims. As you attend political rallies this year, keep your heads on a swivel, go in a group, park knowing you may have to run the gauntlet of leftists and carry alternative self defense items (since most rallies may screen for CCW and even pepper spray), such as canes/walking sticks, etc.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

A recent Pentagon report says that 75% of Americans aged 18-24 are fit for military service, with most being overweight or needing waivers for other medical or criminal issues. The report also says that only 10% of Americans that age are considering service in the military.

OBSERVATION - The current ‘woke’ military created by biden and the perfumed princes in the pentagon have chased away the most qualified.

U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted a Chinese Guided Missile Cruiser about 75 miles off the Alaskan coast earlier this month. The crew later identified two other Chinese military vessels and four Russian military vessels within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. Later additional Russian and Chines military vessels were identified in the area.

OBSERVATION - The article reads like the USCG was surprised by not only the encounter but the numbers of Chinese/Russian vessels involved. Exercises like these serve to provide intelligence to enemies on our readiness status and surveillance abilities. For upwards of 9 combat vessels to approach the US that closely and apparently without early detection is not a good thing.

China -

Chinese and Russian officials announced Russia’s Digital Rouble currency will be utilized alongside the Chinese Digital Yuan in mutual financial settlements

OBSERVATION - China and Russia have been leading efforts to wean their areas of influence away from commerce between nations using the dollar. This has both a economic challenge and attack towards the US as well as developing a mechanism to work around future sanctions.

North/South Korea -

South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo met with VP Harris this morning in Tokyo. He confirmed Harris will tour the DMZ during her visit later this week to South Korea.

Japan -

Japan has accused Russia of blindfolding and restraining one of its diplomats.
Motoki Tatsunori, Japan’s consul in Vladivostok, was freed from custody today after being accused of espionage.
Russia claims Tatsunori received secret information about its co-operation with another unnamed Asian country.
But Japan denies the allegations and says the detention was carried out in “an intimidating manner”.
The diplomat is expected to leave Russia by Wednesday.

OBSERVATION - This is huge, and unprecedented attack on a recognized diplomat from another country. I expect this to reverberate around the halls of the UN and further alienate Russia ‘friends’ that have recently pulled back their support in the face of the invasion and the mobilization.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

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Bad days continue for putin.

“Referendums in the occupied Ukrainian territories is slated to be completed today. Putin is expected to to address the Russian DUMA on the 30th to announce results of the referendum and annexation of territories. Putin hopes that any accession announcement will be seen as a vindication of the ‘special military operation’ and will consolidate patriotic support for the conflict.

NUKE WATCH -
Russian State-controlled media broadcasts say a coming nuclear war with NATO is “a given” as the West “pushes us into a corner,” warning “everyone will be destroyed.”
Russian Personnel Issues -
- On September 26, Russian media reported on the burial of Colonel Boris Totikov, head of the missile forces and artillery of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the Russian armed forces, on the territory of the Russian Federation. Also earlier, Russian sources reported that before the offensive near Balakleya, Ukrainian troops launched powerful strikes on the headquarters of Russian troops in the then-occupied Izyum in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna was in Kyiv on Tuesday on an unannounced visit to Ukraine.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic Russian artillery continues

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces are making even more headway in surrounding Lyman. Ukraine continues to make successful gain towards the towns of Svatov and Kreminna further to the north.

Donetsk Oblast ——

Heavy fighting continued east of Bakhmut where Russian private contractors Wagner Group are taking heavy losses and their offensives continue to be repelled. More Russian attacks north of Donetsk, also repelled.

Sporatic and scattered Russian artillery fire all along the LOC, concentrated mostly around Bakhmut and north of Donetsk.

Crimean front ———
Russia is increasing its attacks using Iranian drones across the Odesa region with mixed successfulness.
Ukrainian forces continue to destroy Russian resupplies, defenses and reinforcements with another barge on the Dnipro destroyed yesterday.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

OUTLOOK ——
I see no changes to the current situation unless Russian defenses around Lyman suddenly crumble.

Much of the future depends on putin does with the illegal ‘referendums’ and that only on a strategic level. He has no ground forces capable of changing the tactical situation and little impact is expected when the first of the 300,000 make it to the theatre.

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Europe / NATO General -

Yesterday evening, pressure in the undersea Nord Stream 2 pipeline suddenly collapsed, and gas could be seen bubbling to the surface of the Baltic Sea near the Danish island of Bornholm. Shortly afterwards, reports came of a total collapse in the pressure of our other major undersea pipeline connection to Russia, Nord Stream 1, indicating a further rupture. Government officials assume that the damage is intentional, and the result of an attack by foreign forces.
Currently, there’s a big who dunnit game going on. If sabotage, it would have to be carried out with special forces – for example, by navy divers or a submarine. Some thin it may be a false flag operation by Russia to turn the screws on Europe over its support of Ukraine. There are others who view the US as the culprit, given biden’s statement “If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”.

UPDATE - European countries say all indications are that the pipelines were blown up on purpose.

OBSERVATION - The European gas crisis is expected to worsen, and Americans can expect to pay higher prices as countries compete for supply heading into winter.
UPDATE - Some RUMINT out there that Russia did the deed both to harm Europe but to potentially cover deployment of boomers to the Atlantic.

Pakistan -

Pakistan Finance Minister Miftah Ismail unexpectedly announced his resignation on Saturday following a meeting with the former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Ismail is the fifth finance minister to quit in less than four years.

OBSERVATION - Pakistan’s economy has been facing a double whammy caused by the recent massive flooding. Pakistan is also embroiled in two insurgencies with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army. Ismail’s sudden resignation is a sign that efforts to stave off a sovereign debt default may have collapsed, and Pakistan is headed for an expanding economic crisis similar to that of regional neighbor Sri Lanka. A very touchy situation for a nuclear armed nation to find itself in.

Israel -

Just weeks now from the new elections, indicators are that Benjamin Netanyahu coalition (Likud, Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism) will succeed in winning 61 seats.

Iran -

Key Iranian military leaders may be endorsing President Ebrahim Raisi to succeed Ali Khamenei as Iran’s next supreme leader.
This endorsement coincides with reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s declining health, sparking an intra-regime debate over who will succeed him. This letter indicates that the military leadership may support Raisi as the next supreme leader.
Raisi would likely pursue similar, if not more aggressive, policies than Khamenei’s. Raisi is just as radical as Khamenei, if not more so, and has a long history of persecuting political dissent and consolidating the regime’s power.

Rioting continues across the nation, with Iran losing control of several cities and most of several provinces.

Syria -

Russian warplanes bombard the vicinity of refugee camps north of Sarmada city in Idlib countryside, and there are casualties among civilians.

Turkey -

Turkey summons Greek Ambassador to the foreign ministry and protests the latest deployment of armoured vehicles to Lisbos and Chios.
Turkey also hands a protest note to the US Embassy for the deployment of US provided tactical vehicles

Venezuela -

Venezuelan officials denounced the United Nations Human Rights Council accusing the organization of “slandering” the Venezuelan government. The accusations come after the UN’s International Independent Mission for Venezuela presented findings of crimes against humanity and human rights violations committed by various Venezuelan governments, including President Nicolas Maduro and state intelligence and security services.

Misc of Note -

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) projects Hurricane Ian will make Florida landfall Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as a Category 3 hurricane.

OBSERVATION - Little seen or heard on FEMA preparations like prepositioning equipment and responders as was done by Trump No doubt this will be a cluster for huge proportions and I suspect that Federal support may be politicized due to Florida’s red state status and governor.

Black Swans -

Economy -

The US government expects households to see their heating bills increase by 54% compared with last winter. U.S. consumers will spend more to heat their homes this winter than last year due to surging energy prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its winter fuels outlook on Wednesday.
US natural gas has climbed to its highest price since 2014 and is up roughly 90% over the last year. The wholesale price of heating oil has more than doubled in the last 12 months.
The biggest reason for this winter’s higher heating bills is the recent increase in prices for energy commodities after they dropped to multi-year lows in 2020. Demand has simply grown faster than production. Another reason for the rise is how global the market for fuels has become.

OBSERVATION - With the destruction of NS 1 &2, there will be higher demand for US LNG.

30-Year US Mortgage Rises Above 7% For The First Time Since 2000; Fastest Surge In History. Home prices fell 2.9% during July, the largest single-month decrease on record for the Case-Shiller Index. As the Fed continues to hike rates, expect any savings from the reduction in home prices to be absorbed by increases in mortgage rates and the real estate market to lean in favor of cash buyers.

OBSERVATION - it will take multiple years for the housing market to recover. NOTE - Cash buyers are being lead by WEF shills like BlackRock who have the cash.

With expectations of continued strength for the U.S. Dollar and predictions of easing oil demand growth, Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for next year by $17.5 per barrel on average, to $108

The potential rail road strike is still on with reports that one of the three railway unions has rejected the deal given by the Biden Administration and the remaining two have yet to decide - projected to be in about 2 months.

And now a butter shortage according to the Wall Street Journal, which recently reported on a dairy shortage in the U.S. due to staffing issues and lower milk production.

Biden / Harris watch -

During a meeting Monday with economic aides, Biden lamented that while crude prices fell sharply last month, it has taken a “long time” for the drop in price to trickle down to the consumer.
“We haven’t seen the lower prices reflected at the pump though. Meanwhile, oil and gas companies are still making record profits — billions of dollars in profit,” the president said Monday.
“My message is simple. To the companies running gas stations and setting those prices at the pump: Bring down the prices you’re charging at the pump to reflect the cost you pay for the product.”
The president exhorted gas stations to pass along savings to customers more quickly.
“Do it now,” Biden said. “Do it now. Not a month from now — do it now.”

Biden’s questionable mental state has come to the forefront again as he tries to find and introduce the recently deceased Rep. Jackie Walorski of Indiana in the audience at a White House event.
“Jackie are you here? Where’s Jackie?”
Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) died in a car accident in August.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - MSM is no longer hiding biden’s mental failings.

POLITICAL FRONT -

President Biden has yet to speak directly to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis despite an impending hurricane that’s set to make landfall on Wednesday, but that won’t impact the way the Biden administration responds to the natural disaster, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said Tuesday.
biden has spoken to democrat mayors, but not a word to DeSantis.

OBSERVATION - biden will exact a revenge against DeSantis by hurting all of Florida.

The Senate voted Tuesday on the motion to end the debate on proceeding to a continuing resolution to avoid a partial government shutdown. The vote was 72-23. In order to get to the vote, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WVA) agreed to pull his permitting reform bill that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer attached as a rider to the continuing resolution.

OBSERVATION - Manchin discovering the scorpion he carried across the river is still a scorpion - and he always knew full well it was.

North/South Korea -

South Korea says North Korea may conduct its 7th nuclear test between October 7th and October 16th, according to Yonhap. Tunnel 3 at Punggye-ri has been completed.

OBSERVATION - They’ve been capable of another test for some time now.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the their defeat, Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Reports of completely untrained conscripts from the latest ‘mobilization’ on the font lines already.

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Bad days continue for putin.

As voting on Russian referendums drew to a close, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia’s priority must be offering “salvation” to the residents of occupied territories. Despite reports of voter fraud and intimidation, Russian authorities announced vote counts indicating that 87-99.2% of the populace of Russian-occupied territories had voted to join Russia. Russian Kremlin officials have announced that the security situation in these territories will “change radically”.

Americans with Russian dual citizenship might be denied the ability to leave President Vladimir Putin’s country so they can be drafted into military service to support the war in Ukraine.
The U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Russia released a statement warning Moscow “may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service.”
The U.S. again encouraged its citizens not to travel to Russia, and said those residing or traveling in Russia should depart the country immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.

NUKE WATCH -
U.S. officials are not counting on getting much notice before the use of a tactical nuclear weapon as Russia has 23 different dual-use weapon systems.

NOTE - By “dual use” we are talking about systems that shoot both conventional and nuclear warheads. Examples are the various cruse missiles., the Iskander missile (and the air launched version - the hyped hypersonic missile). However, those nuclear warheads are commonly stored in secure facilities and not the current battlefield. Any movement should produce a SIGINT or otherwise ‘signature’ indicating movement. But those indicators could be missed.

In other news, Russia has again insisted it has a “right” to use nuclear weapons if its territory is threatened.

OBSERVATION - I am becoming more concerned that the rising pressure by Kremlin hardliners and regime supporters for the use of nukes, combined with recent statements by putin for Russians not to fear going up in a nuclear fireball since they will be headed straight to heaven that he may well be seriously considering using a nuke to win this war. This kind of rhetoric suggests that there may be some mental instability, not one’s a good thing with ones hand on the nuclear button.

RUMINT -
Word from captured Russians is that the untrained soldiers are being sent forward as cannon fodder. Similar tactics reported from Wagner Group mercenaries, where they will push the conscripted from prisons forward. Almost a tactic where they want Ukraine to run out of bullets before Russia runs out of bodies.

Logistics -
- videos coming out that indicate that the conscripts are being told to procure their own winter weather gear.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.
- Russian officials continued to set conditions for the forced mobilization or conscription of Ukrainian civilians in soon-to-be annexed oblasts to fight against the Ukrainian military
- Training the newly mobilized conscripts is expected to be significantly hampered by the lack of instructors, most of which have been sent to the front lines.

Economic Impact -
- Creative work arounds currently has the Ruble at levels higher than pre-war.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The noose around Lyman continues to grow tighter as Urkrain liberates several more villages to the north of the city. The ‘referendums “ went for Russia - no surprise. However now Ukrainian citizens trapped in Russian controlled territory may now face forced conscription to fight against Ukraine.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic Russian artillery continues

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Several more cities north and northeast of Lyman have been liberated. Ukraine continues to make successful gain towards the towns of Svatov and Kreminna further to the north.

The attached link is to a curent map that approximately depicts the ongoing encircling of Lyman

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsZBTJWIBAR5E0?format=jpg&name=large

Russian sources are reporting that Ukrainian artillery fire is successfully interdicting Russian forces’ last logistic route to Lyman, running through Svatove-Makiivka-Terny north of the settlement

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar and Bakhmutske, and south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka, Zaitseve, and Mayorsk.

Crimean front ———
Ground offensive to recapture Kherson continues at a methodological manner with a lot of OPSEC by Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces struck Russian barges operating over the Dnipro River and continued to target Russian efforts to repair the Kakhovka Bridge.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

OUTLOOK ——
Time is running out for Lyman. Still a good chance it may fall this weekend.
However, videos on social media show soil conditions becoming worse, as the fall muddy season starts. It will impact Ukraine less than it will Russia as they are used to the conditions. Russian not so much. As weather turns more miserable, Russia morale will likely go even lower, through a combination of poor supply, poor leadership, disgruntled conscripts and pressure from motivated Ukrainian forces.

Wild card i reluctantly have to note is potential Russian nuclear use. No one in their right mind can believe putin would use such a weapon - but putin may not be in his right mind.

.
Europe / NATO General -

Largest gas supplier in Europe, Norway’s Equinor, has raised emergency preparedness at installations following a suspected sabotage attack on Nord Stream pipelines, per Reuters. Norway also reported mysterious drones coming within 50m of its platforms.

Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks called on NATO and EU states to launch a joint investigation into the series of blasts that caused “unprecedented” damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 Pipelines. The statements followed an announcement from The Swedish Seismological Institute (SNSN) that it had registered two “distinct” underwater explosions along the pipelines. Institute Officials noted the readings indicated the blasts were not caused by natural phenomena.

OBSERVATION - As the guessing game over who blew up NS1 and NS2 continues, Russia remains the biggest suspect. Some wonder why Russia? Well as we’ve seen since at least February, Russia has’t been making the best choices lately.

A reminder, I won’t be posting Fri - Sun and may be late on Monday. On the road. If I do see something critical rearing its head I’ll try to get word out.

Economy -

The traditional Thanksgiving dinner may be skyrocketing out of reach for many Americans this year. The bird flu pandemic that has killed tens of millions of our chickens and turkeys was supposed to go away during the hot summer months, but that didn’t happen. And now that the weather is starting to get colder again, there has been a resurgence of the bird flu and this is “devastating egg and turkey operations in the heartland of the country”. As a result turkeys are selling for record high prices ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Turkey hens are $1.82 a pound this week, according to Urner Barry, compared to $1.42 last year and $1.01 before the pandemic. Meanwhile, wholesale egg prices are at $3.62 a dozen as of Wednesday, the highest ever, up from a previous record of $3.45 a dozen set earlier this year, said John Brunnquell, chief executive officer of Egg Innovations, one of the biggest US producers of free-range eggs. Consumers have seen prices for eggs at grocery stores triple this year, while turkey meat rose a record-setting 60%, according to a Cobank report.
Meanwhile, supplies of butter are steadily getting tighter as well. Lower milk production on U.S. dairy farms and labor shortages for processing plants have weighed on butter output for months, leaving the amount of butter in U.S. cold storage facilities at the end of July the lowest since 2017, according to the Agriculture Department. Here in the Redoubt prices have surged to more than $4/lb for butter.

OBSERVATION - Its just Thanksgiving right? It is an indicator of a food industry that is on a delicate balance and can tip with the right push. All is interconnected in one way or another - food, fuel, fertilizer, disease, etc. See Europe / NATO on the collapse of the European steel industry

Hurricane Ian has been brutal to Florida, with initial damage estimated to exceed 70 billion. That price tag, according to Bloomberg citing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, would make Ian among the costliest storms in US history, as the top end of that range would rank Ian as the sixth-costliest US hurricane. Difficulties in getting needed material and supplies to victims due to snagged supply chains are likely to raise costs even further.

OBSERVATION - Lack of preparation on the parts of the people and insurance companies may leave many out to dry. Additionally, much of the damage is flood related, not covered by regular insurance. So if owners didn’t pay attention to their policies they will be out even more. The draw on reconstruction resources will likely cause inflation to spike - particularly in the southeast, but could be reflected across the rest of the country one way or another.
BTW - You know the action is hot when Jim Cantore shows up and is even hotter when he gets hit by a flying tree branch during hurricane report. He was lucky.

The U.S. economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter in the three months ended June, according to the final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, meeting the criteria for a so-called technical recession as raging inflation and higher interest rates weighed on spending. The updated report, released Thursday, showed that gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, shrank by 0.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter. That is below the initially reported 0.9% decline and unchanged from the second reading of a 0.6% decline.

OBSERVATION - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is trying to spin this by modifying their definition of a recession. I don’t think the population is going to accept that spin. Non-govt banking and economists keep saying we are peering into a maul of a major recession - contra the federal narrative.

The Washington Post is spewing out article how we should be happy to be going into recession.

Biden / Harris watch -

Waiting to see what gaffs harris made in S K.

CW2/Domestic violence -

A growing partnership between third party data brokers and law enforcement agencies is raising alarm bells among civil liberties lawyers. In a little noted trend, law enforcement agencies at every level of government are increasingly buying data from private, third-party data brokers on Americans’ phone and internet activities in order to track them, often without a warrant. Govt entities like law enforcement hav been using a tool, Fog Reveal, a product of the company Fog Data Science, which claims it has “billions” of data points about “over 250 million” devices that can be used to learn where people work, live, and associate, going back months in time.

OBSERVATION - Tracking ‘threats’ (yep that’s you and me constitution loving American “domestic terrorists”). A major step in controlling the population.

A 38-year-old Antifa member and career criminal in San Diego is the first to be convicted over a violent Antifa conspiracy to attack Donald Trump supporters and beachgoers at Pacific Beach in January 2021. Erich Louis Yach, of San Ysidro, Calif., admitted to conspiracy to riot, assaulting multiple persons and unlawfully using tear gas as a weapon, plus other felonies in court on Wednesday.
The 10 other alleged Antifa members charged over the Pacific Beach attack for various felonies are: Alexander Akridge-Jacobs, 31, Jesse Merel Cannon, 32, Joseph Austin Gaskins, 21, Brian Cortez Lightfoot Jr., 25, Christian Martinez, 23, Luis Francisco Mora, 30, Samuel Howard Ogden, 24, Bryan Rivera, 20, Faraz Martin Talab, 27, and Jeremy Jonathan White, 39.
In June, a secret grand jury indicted Yach and 10 other alleged Antifa members accused of being part of a network of violent cells in southern California that planned and carried out brutal attacks during a riot in Pacific Beach, Calif. on Jan. 9 last year. Video recorded at the riot showed the mob in black bloc assaulting multiple victims with weapons. Trump supporters, minors, a photojournalist and a man and his dog walking on the beach were all hurt during the attacks. Multiple weapons and firearms were seized from suspects during executed search warrants.

OBSERVATION - The SD Dist Atty case is the first time prosecutors sought to unmask Antifa cells in California. Were this to have occurred in Portland or Seattle this would have never happened. This kind of push back has been desperately needed.

POLITICAL FRONT -

House Democratic leadership’s stock ban bill, which covers spouses and dependent children, might not see a vote before the November election takes place.

OBSERVATION - No accountability for the chosen ones.

China -

Chinese Navy / Army has been practicing landing operations using massive civilian ferrys much bigger capacity than landing ships (LSD). It is probable that these would be used as follow on waves after the assault area is secured.

North/South Korea -

South Korea’s military says North Korea has fired at least one ballistic missile toward its eastern waters.
The launch on Thursday came hours after Vice President Kamala Harris departed from South Korea, the last stop of a four-day Asian trip.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Bad days continue for putin.

Putin’s spokesperson announced that ceremony to annex occupied Ukrainian lands tomorrow (Sep 30) at 15:00 Moscow time, Putin is expected to make a statement at that time. It is suspected that putin will now restate the reason for the ‘special operation’ and give a warning to Ukraine and NATO to cease attacking Russian territory.

NUKE WATCH -
One key aspect that rolls through the head is how willing are Russia’s generals in the nuclear chain of action going to be to actually follow an order from putin to unleash the nuclear genie. One cannot expect conventional wisdom that they would halt the order and put putin out of power. That just doesn’t seem to be in the cards considering the continued support of the Ukrainian meat grinder. What has Russia done so far in the war that might give a clue. Russia has indiscriminately bombed civilian and residential targets throughout most of the war. If they are willing to raze cities to the ground with conventional weapons (which they are getting close to running out of) The level of destruction that a tactical nuke would inflict in a similar way would not be much greater - depending on the size of the bomb.

The rhetoric of his MSM and other supporters has long gone on dehumanizing the Ukrainian people, making such an application easier for the Russian populace to accept.

If Russia were to do the ‘unthinkable’, I suspect that it would use its strategic bombers to launch the strike. Easier access to a nuclear stockpile to load up a missile with little intelligence footprint, versus transporting a ground or sea launched warhead into the theatre. As I push aside my normalcy bias, I’m seeing a lot of pieces of the nuclear puzzle that if they align could set off a nuclear conflict.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- More evidence that recently mobilized conscripts are being immediately put on the front lines comes from the Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai says the first mobilized Russian troops have arrived on the frontlines
As they arrived one week after mobilization, they have no training at all and are being used to stabilize the frontlines in Donbas.
- Hundreds of thousands of conscript qualified Russians have fled the country. Most appear to be highly educated or from well off families that can afford to get them out.
- Russia has redeployed up to 80 percent of troops from its borders on the Baltic states and Finland to plug losses in Ukraine, according to officials. European officials said there could be just 6,000 Russian troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics.

Economic Impact -
- Prior to the the current war, it is estimated that Russia spent over a billion dollars a year to subsidize the civilian economy in occupied Donbas. If allowed to get away with the annexation, that price could easily go an order of magnitude higher.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine make more gains around Lyman while repelling Russian attacks on Bakhmut and north of Donetsk. Russian unleashed a large missile attack on Ukranian cities in southern Ukraine hitting principally civilivan and residential areas.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Continued sporatic Russian artillery fire along the border areas.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian military gained control of Seredne , a village approximately 20 KM northwest of Lyman. Russian artillery supporting Lyman defenders was reported to be more intense than previous days.

Donetsk Oblast ——
More Russian attacks in the Bahkmut to Donetsk line. Supporting Russian artillery fire was reportedly less intense than previous days.

Crimean front ———
Big explosion in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region as Ukraine continues to target logistics and ammo sites.
Ukraine OPSEC leaves a lot of current tactical operations silenced, but OSINT and other analysts indicate that the Kherson offensive is still ongoing, with much of the recent fighting appearing to be Ukraine setting its self up for positions from which to gain the advantage over Russian forces. Russian forces west of the Dnipir River are still assess as being critically short of fuel, ammunition and other supplies, being essentially cut off from the main force.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
Explosions were reported in Belgorod, possible due to failed missile launch or air defense launches.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

OUTLOOK ——

The clock is ticking and Lyman will soon be cut off. At what time will the Russian forces realize they are screwed, break and try to escape to the east? All indicators are that the forces there are not the same highly motivated troops that the Ukrainians were when they held out for months. Russia is sorely been out maneuvered but it seems the generals want those troops to die in place.

The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk & western Luhansk oblasts & may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border & in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.

Belarus -

Just coming out that in late July Belarus agreed to send 200 soldiers to Syria to replace the many more Russian troops brought back to Russia to replace losses in Ukraine. Belarus has refused Russian requests to send its troops into Ukraine. While Lukashenko is pro-Russia, most Belarussians are not and some openly support Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General -

The United Nations Security Council will convene on Friday at the request of Russia to discuss damage to two Russian gas pipelines to Europe that has caused gas to spew into the Baltic Sea.

According to a report by German magazine Der Spiegel, the CIA warned Berlin about a potential attack on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “weeks ago.”
Citing “several people familiar with the matter,” the publication reports that a tip from the US spy agency was “received in Berlin during the summer.”

OBSERVATION - Fingers continue to point to Russia as being the culprit. Some say why would Russia injure itself financially to do so, all they had to do is turn off the valves. Actually, if by Russia, it just cranked the economic war against NATO/Europe up a notch, making them live by the sanctions while having a degree of ‘plausible deniability “. If/when the Ukraine war gets settled, Russia can sit back and watch the Euros pour in to have the lines repaired - at no cost to Russia.
However, NATO is close to declaring an Article 5 situation.

Steel production in Europe is literally close to collapsing as the continent deals with major spikes in energy costs thanks to having become overly dependent on Russian gas and oil, which is now is without the major supply lines for NS 1 and 2 being destroyed. Such a collapse will cascade across much of their remaining industrial sectors (cars, planes, appliances, etc.) Such a collapse on top of a recession will send shockwaves around the world.

Israel -

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides said he was pleased to hear Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s speech, backing a two-state solution to the Israeli Palestinian Conflict.

OBSERVATION - This should remove any doubt that biden is pushing a two state solution and is pressuring Israel into it.

Iran -

Protests continue throughout Iran now closing in on two weeks. A general strike now has started in several cities. Internationally, Norway police reported that protesters tried to storm Iran’s embassy in O.slo

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Wednesday said that the death of a young woman in custody had “saddened” everyone in the Islamic Republic, but warned that “chaos” would not be accepted amid spreading violent protests over Mahsa Amini’s death.

OBSERVATION - Raisi trying to sooth the angry masses with this so called admission. So far, regime attempts to quell the protests have not gone well as they have continued to spread.

See Iraq below

Iraq -

The US Consulate in Erbil on Thursday issued a security alert advising its nationals to refrain from traveling to Iraq following heavy Iranian drone and missile operations that killed at least nine people in the Kurdistan Region on Wednesday

IRGC confirmED firing 72 missiles & drones targeting terrorist Kurdish separatist groups based in ‘Kurdistan’ region north of Iraq after multiple ‘warnings’ to KRG authorities to stop hosting these militants accused of instigating riots & killing Iranians

OBSERVATION - Iran trying to blame Kurds for the ongoing protests and violence.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Taliban forces fire shots into the air to disperse a women’s rally supporting protests in Iran over the death of a woman in the custody of morality police. Chanting the “Women, life, freedom.” mantra used in Iran, Afghan women protested outside Iran’s embassy in Kabul

Central / South America General-

Big election in Brazil coming up, will leftists gain more ground in central/south America?

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Armenia plans to increase its Defense Budget by 47% in 2023.
They waking up to the fact that Russia cannot/will not protect them in the future.

Back again. Interesting weekend at a preparedness expo out of state. Lots happened over the weekend

Globalism / Great Reset -

Late last week the Bank of England narrowly adverted a crisis. Now, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are on the verge of collapse. The combined asset base of the two banks is nearly $2 Trillion which is 3x the asset base of Lehman Brothers at the time of its collapse.

OBSERVATION - “Too Big to Fail” now coming into play. US banks are being challenged as well. The failure of these banks would ripple across the globe and help trigger a significant economic disaster.

The Federal Reserve has taken a major step in the direction of facilitating an ESG compliant monetary network The Fed said in a statement Thursday:
“Six of the nation’s largest banks will participate in a pilot climate scenario analysis exercise designed to enhance the ability of supervisors and firms to measure and manage climate-related financial risks. Scenario analysis—in which the resilience of financial institutions is assessed under different hypothetical climate scenarios—is an emerging tool to assess climate-related financial risks, and there will be no capital or supervisory implications from the pilot.”
The banks involved in this pilot program are Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo.

OBSERVATION - Basing this ‘exercise’ on a climate based scenario is just one component of the eventual ESG based credit system the digital currency will be rooted in. How well can the system track climate related transactions. No statement on just at what level will be evaluated - business or all the way down to the private citizen.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill into law Friday that will allow for physicians to be disciplined for “misinformation” and “disinformation” in relation to Covid, sparking a protest at the State Capitol.

OBSERVATION - It is pretty clear which road this is headed down and it won’t end with just the medical commuunity. Criminalization of medical practice by physicians to best inform their patients of their options and rights is a MAJOR sign of a totalitarian govt. Now at the tail end of the wuhan plandemic, the so called contemporary scientific consensus regarding wuhan has shown to be wrong. It has actually been refuted partially and fully.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation this month announced $200 million in new funding — part of an overall $1.27 billion commitment in support of “global health and development projects” that include creating a global digital ID system. Included in the plans are the inclusion of infrastructure tools such as interoperable payment systems, digital ID, data-sharing systems, and civil registry databases.

OBSERVATION - If your are going to control society, you must have the means of identifying and tracking subjects. Such an ID system is the logical conclusion to the ESG and economic controls the GGR wants to impose. More so, is the plan to use biometrics as a key component of the plan.

Wuhan virus -

President Joe Biden personally thanked a Coast Guardsman for saving a 94-year-old woman in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, but the hero expects to be fired within days for rejecting the COVID vaccine.

OBSERVATION - Were I the coastguardman, I’d definitely throw the call back into biden’s face.

NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital in early September published the 30-second ad, which promoted the medical center’s pediatric services for treating the condition.
The hospital pulled the ad amid public outcry following three CHD.TV episodes featuring discussions about how the ad appeared to normalize and trivialize myocarditis in children. CHD.TV is produced by Children’s Health Defense.

OBSERVATION - One more way to deflect from the direct adverse affects of the jab. Another in the news is creation of the ‘Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS)” to account for all the sudden ‘unexplainable’ deaths of otherwise clearly health individuals - who’ve been jabbed.

Economy -

OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) when it meets on Oct. 5, OPEC sources told Reuters on Sunday.
The figure is slightly above estimates for a cut given last week, which ranged between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd.
OPEC+, which combines OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, is meeting in person in Vienna for the first time since March 2020. The output cuts are being considered on the back of a slide in oil prices from multi-year highs reached in March and market volatility. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, first flagged the possibility of cuts to correct the market in August.

OBSERVATION - Enjoy the slightly lower prices, cause they are not going lower any time soon. in fact, they’ve started to rise again.

More harbingers of a recession as layoffs and a decrease in demand are being reported by several large corporations, including Apple, FedEx, Meta, and Nike.

Possibly related, IDK if it Walmart’s attempt to reduce excess inventory I’ve posted here already, however, last week they started setting up the Christmas materials/decorations. Earliest I’ve ever seen.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned, “This is a moment when there should be increased anxiety,” similar to one year before the financial crisis in 2008. At the same time, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch GFSI (Global Financial Stress Index) Market Risk indicator has jumped to its highest level since March 2020.

OBSERVATION - Meanwhile the WH continues to play happy days are here again, hoping to slide thru the midterms without a major economic blow out.

Invasion of Illegals -

In an unbelievable racist statement, during a press conference, Pelosi was asked about Democrats’ refusal to call for tighter border security.
“We have a shortage of workers in our country, and you see in Florida. Some of the farmers and the growers say, why are you shipping these immigrants up north. We need them to pick the crops down here.”

OBSERVATION - Obvious she lives in a palace and the rest of the peons cater to her.

Biden / Harris watch -

Fallout from harris’ hurricane “equity” statement is still reverberating with the WH (and their media mouthpieces) scrambling to walk back her statements.

China -

The Chinese Communist Party has established unofficial police “service stations” in major cities around the world, including in the United States, according to an independent investigation.

OBSERVATION - Calling them ‘police stations ‘ is a bit misleading. The purpose is these ‘stations’ is to facilitate persecution of Chinese who’ve opposed the regime while living overseas. They do this by coercion - threatening the individuals families and relationships still in China if they don’t do what the CCP demands. In many instances is it to return to China and face being jailed for various political crimes. This has been going on for a long time.

More economic woes for China as the yuan, continues a steep and continuing slide against the dollar. The yuan slid 7% from mid-August to last week. Late last week, China’s central bank ordered all state-owned banks to sell dollars in an effort to stop currency investors from shorting the yuan. The yuan’s slide means China must pay more for food, fuel, and manufacturing inputs - coming at a very bad time for China’s economy already suffering from woes created by wuhan shut downs and Evergeen properly melt downs.

OBSERVATION - This is happening at a bad time for Xi who still hasn’t gotten another term as president nailed down.

North/South Korea -

Over the weekend, NK popped off a number of short ranged ballistic missiles, likely in response to US-SK military exercises in the south.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the defeat of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Reports of completely untrained conscripts from the latest ‘mobilization’ on the font lines already. Now the offensive in Kherson looks like it is hitting high gear.

********
Bad days continue for putin.

Some guests on heavily-edited Kremlin television programs that aired on October 1 criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex four Ukrainian oblasts before securing their administrative borders or even the frontline, expressing doubts about Russia’s ability ever to occupy the entirety of these territories.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Private Military Company financier Evgeniy Prigozhin have further damaged the Kremlin’s vulnerable narratives during and after the fall of Lyman. Kadyrov published a hyperbolic rant on October 1 in which he accused the Russian military command of failing to promptly respond to the deteriorating situation around Lyman and stated that Russia needs to liberate the annexed four oblasts with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons. Prigozhin reiterated Kadyrov’s critiques of the Russian military leadership.

Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision.

NUKE WATCH -
Still a lot of looking at the tea leaves by many ‘analysts’ on whether or not putin will pull the nuclear trigger. Over all general consensus it that such use is not imminent as the geopolitical conditions are not conducive for such an action - yet. Russia still maintains a full capability to execute an attack(s) on very short notice and with little intelligence warning.

OSIMT sources (Israeli Intelligence firm ImageSat) show the presence of a squadron of Russian nuclear bombers at the Olenya Airbase in the Murmansk region bordering Scandinavia. Imagery revealed that 3 TU-95 heavy bombers and 4 TU-160 strategic bombers had been forward deployed to the region since late August. Some consider this to be ‘unusual’. The base is known to provide storage for tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, including nuclear-capable hypersonic cruise missiles.

RUMINT -
More on putin possibly being forced out of power and replaced.

Logistics - - Russian deputy and retired general Andriy Gurulev reported that 1.5 million sets of military uniforms of the Russian Armed Forces, which were intended for the mobilized, disappeared from warehouses in Zabaikalia in an inexplicable way.
In a related issue, recent mobilized forces were given a long list of items they would have to purchase on their own, with many not having the money to do so.

- A survey of Russian anti-aircraft batteries, using commercial satellite photos, has shown that Russia has been shutting down S300 (surface to air missiles) batteries around Russian cities and moving the missiles and launchers to the Ukrainian border, where the missiles are used to attack surface targets At least 500 - S300 missiles have been used so far against surface targets in Ukraine and there are still an estimate 7,000 - S300 missiles available.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Continued chaos as the manpower sweep to get enough men for the mobilization continues. Many of those ‘mobilized’ have found themselves in thrown up tent cities, lacking heat and sanitation facilities as the fall begins it transition to winter.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
More like a weekend round up now that i’m home. And I was right - Lyman fell this weekend and most everything Russian further east is unraveling. But that’s not all folks, things have broken loose in the Kherson front. More to follow.

The defeat of Russian forces in Lyman created another ‘highway to hell’ along the only road out of Lyman to the east (at that time), videos show it lined with destroyed / burned out vehicles of all sorts and bodies of Russian soldiers yet to be policed up.

Russian tactical air support - both fixed and rotary wing - have drastically disappeared over the weekend. Some attribute this to the poor weather, while others state that supply issues are keeping more aircraft grounded. I wonder if the ‘supply’ issues aren’t a cover for the pilots not wanting to be shot out of the sky as airspace over the areas where the Ukraine offensive are occurring have become very lethal to them.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Defense Secretary Gen. Lloyd Austin, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have all gently pushed back against the idea that Ukraine could be granted fast-track accession to the transatlantic alliance.
In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of four Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday announced that Kyiv was applying for “accelerated accession to NATO.”

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Continued sporatic Russian artillery fire along the border areas.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
The Ukrainian Army broke though Russian lines east of Kupyansk and are heading toward Svatove. Another pincer is moving north-east from the Lyman area.

Seems it’s only a question of time before the Russian forces in Borova will get encircled.
The breakthrough at Lyman over the weekend has exposed the soft underbelly of more of the Russian rear area. Ukrainian forces are continuing to exploit.

The following link is to a map depicting the tactical situation as of yesterday. Note that this morning Ukraine is furter east knocking on the door to Kreminna.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeFTZwcXwAE_04_?format=jpg&name=900x900

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults around Bakhmut, Vyimka, and Avdiivka. The doggedness of the Russian attacks in this region continue to cause one to scratch their head. Sportatic Russian artillery across the whole LOC, though with higher concentrations around Bakhmut and associated areas.

Crimean front ———
Several Russian Telegram channels claim that the Ukrainian forces broke through in the northeast of Russia’s Kherson pocket-to-be yesterday and today, and that Russian defenses rolled back to Dudchany - if true it’s a 20km deep breakthrough.
The most cautious assessment of the current position: UA forces have liberated Zolota Balka, Khreshchenivka and Shevchenkivka; Novooleksandrivka, Havrylivka and Dudchany are contested if not already UA-controlled.

Ukraine continues to strike command posts, logistical bases and troop concentrations across kherson oblast.
The following link is to a map I found, current as of yesterday, of the tactical situation around Kherson.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeFqQN4WAAAyWhp?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia stands to lose a lot more terrain in the east with the fall of Lyman and the collapse of Russian defenses in general. Ukraine is wisely pressing the attack before the mud gets too bad and operations have to slow down until it freezes. However, such a pause won’t help Russia as Ukraine has all the key resupply routes into the eastern Donbas region under its guns now.

The place I’m watching this week is the potential break out by Ukrainian forces in the Kherson fight. Pushing from the north to the south (roughly), fleeing Russian troops would be forced to Kherson city - causing chaos in the rear areas of the rest of the Russian defenses. They cannot flee east because of the Dnipir River and the only crossing at Kherson are limited ferry barges. Upwards of 10,000 Russian forces are believed to be essentially trapped west of the Dnipir River. These are ‘better’ quality forces but are lacking fuel, ammunition and reinforcements while Ukraine begins its attempt to duplicate its success in the east by out maneuvering the Russian forces rather than attempting frontal attacks.

Poland -

Poland has completed the construction of a protective barrier on the border with Belarus. Under reported is that muslims and other groups are still attempting to sneak into Poland via Belarus.

.
Europe / NATO General -

Lithuania expels Russia’s chargé d’affaires.

Authorities in Denmark said Sunday that the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipelines have also stopped leaking, a day after officials said that the ruptured Nord Stream 2 pipelines also appeared to stop leaking. Most likely because the remaining gas in the pipeline finally drained out. Finger pointing continues over who actually blew the pipelines up. Investigations still haven’t found a smoking gun tracing back to the culprit.

Germany is warning that they may run out of natural gas this winter.

The heads of nine European NATO members on Sunday issued a joint statement backing a path to membership for Ukraine in the U.S.-led security alliance, and calling on all 30 NATO nations to ramp up military aid for Kyiv. The leaders of Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia published a statement on their websites Sunday saying: “We support Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion, demand (that Russia) immediately withdraw from all the occupied territories and encourage all allies to substantially increase their military aid to Ukraine.” The US is not on board.

Israel -

Israel gave its preliminary nod on Sunday to a draft U.S.-brokered deal demarcating a maritime border with Lebanon that may lead to profit-sharing in a disputed Mediterranean gas prospect.

OBSERVATION - This agreement also attempts to cut Hezbollah out of the arrangement monetarily as well as politically.

Iran -

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Khamenei has not addressed the protests nor made a public appearance since September 21, possibly due to his reportedly worsening health. An unidentified Iranian official told Reuters that intra-regime disagreements over supreme leader succession and protest management are dividing the regime elite. This division suggests that Khamenei is not playing his usual role of cohering the regime during a crisis.

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders struck a more conciliatory tone on October 2 as university students have adopted an increasingly prominent role in the protest movement. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said, “we consider [the protesting youth] our friends, and we will not allow the enemy to attack you.”

Violence increased between Hezbollah militias that came to Iran to support the regime and protestors. Protestors are fighting back.

OBSERVATION - The absence of Khamenei for this extended period of time in the face of nation wide protests does not bode well for the regime. This has given the protest time to get its second wind and now is entrenched oil the country’s universities. Attempts by ‘outsiders’ (Hezebollah) to put it down is only enhancing it.

BREAKING - Khamenei has released audio of an address today, speaking on the riots and other subjects. Gist of the the comments is that the riots were not the ‘right reaction’ and the US was to blame.

The Iranian regime is expecting $7 billion in funds that were frozen because of U.S. sanctions to be released, after it granted a one-week furlough to an imprisoned American citizen and allowed his father, also a U.S. citizen, to leave the country. This money is believed to be currently frozen in S Korean bank accounts.

OBSERVATION - Follow the money. This is just an excuse to have the money freed up.

Lebanon -

See Israel above

The Lebanese parliament fails to elect a president - expect more political instability .

Central / South America General-

“Almost all votes have been counted in Brazil (96.93%) and neither candidate will be able to hit the 50% mark needed to win in the first round. It means there will be a run-off election on 30 October between former President Lula and incumbent President Bolsonaro” -BBC

OBSERVATION - Under most of the radar has been the electoral success of the left in Central and South America. Largely ‘moderate’ at the moment, if they got together they could pose a regional challenge to the US. However, the economic crises bought on by the wuhan shutdown, has the left forced to bring their attention inward for now. The economic issues are part of what is moving the electorate to the left. Question is will Bolsonario be able to reverse the trend and win the runoff.

Misc of Note -

Hurricane Ian damage to Florida and the Southeast is still being assessed. Democrats are trying to make political hay out of it, but is it backfiring. Consequences will ripple across the national economy during the rebuild effort.

Globalism / Great Reset -

“We may be on the verge of a replay of 2008 – but we can’t use the same central bank policy response without creating massive inflation, global Arab Springs, and global chaos.” - Rabobank, Dutch multinational

OBSERVATION - While many of the same signals from 2008 are present, many fundamentals are not the same - for the worst - , and that is what is making economic analysts very nervous. Remember the goal of the GGR is to precipitate or exploit a global economic meltdown to insert their economic controls.

Melissa Fleming, Under-Secretary for Global Communications at the United Nations at [World Economic Forum] ‘Disinformation’ event: “We partnered with Google,” said Fleming, adding, “for example, if you Google ‘climate change,’ you will, at the top of your search, you will get all kinds of UN resources. We started this partnership when we were shocked to see that when we Googled ‘climate change,’ we were getting incredibly distorted information right at the top. So we’re becoming much more proactive. We own the science, and we think that the world should know it, and the platforms themselves also do.”

OBSERVATION - Orwellian and scary. Control of information

IN RELATED Moderating last week’s “Tackling Disinformation” panel was WEF managing director Adrian Monck, who in recent months has been name-calling critics of the WEF and components of its great reset agenda as white supremacists and anti-Semites engaged in far-right disinformation campaigns.
When addressing CNN’s Rachel Smolkin, Monck said that CNN was part of a political war strategy to “own the narrative.”
“CNN is both an organization that’s trying to make sense of the world and trying to establish the facts; it’s also part of a political war on who owns the narrative,” he said.

Outside of general govt control, MSN et al have shifted the propaganda to the left in an exponential manner over the past 10 years. Just another sector of American life that cannot be trusted - period.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded a malaria vaccine trial study that used genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes to “vaccinate” humans.
A team of researchers at the University of Washington conducted the study, which was published in the Science Translational Medicine journal. The study involved 26 participants who received three to five “jabs” — or bites from a small box containing 200 GM mosquitoes — over a 30-day period.
Sanaria, a company funded in part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), is closely connected to the research, and the researchers involved in the trial use a gene-editing technology heavily promoted by Bill Gates.

OBSERVATION - OMG, so much for informed consent if they try to go full production. What else will Gates put in a mosquito to ‘jab’ us with.

Economy -

(Bloomberg) — Home prices in the US have taken a turn and are now posting the biggest monthly declines since 2009. Median home prices fell 0.98% in August from a month earlier, following a 1.05% drop in July, mortgage-data provider Black Knight Inc. said in a report Monday. The two periods mark the largest monthly declines since January 2009.

OBSERVATION - Again, the housing market is a bellweather indicator for the economy in general. It continues to forecast an economic storm that is on the way.

Leaders of Native American tribes across the country are calling for the Biden administration to allow for their tribes to continue with fossil duel production on their lands.
According to a 2014 study from the Poverty and Environment Research Center, around 20 percent of the nation’s oil and natural gas reserves, 30 percent of the nation’s coal reserves west of the Mississippi River, as well as additional natural materials are located on Native American lands, all of which is worth around $1.5 trillion.
Despite the potential, around 86 percent of these lands with energy and mineral resources remain undeveloped, and just 3 percent of domestic oil production comes from tribal lands.

OBSERVATION - Native tribes are one of the bigger supporters of democrat and democrat policies. In doing so, they’ve been kept in poverty living off what crumbs tossed their way (only exemption being tribes in Kalifornia that went the casino way). With recent moves for greater autonomy tribes are looking at ways to increase funds on their own. Natural resources is one way - now cut off by those same democrats.

The ongoing HPAI season has produced the largest epidemic seen so far in Europe and the US. Millions of chickens and turkeys have been culled to try to prevent the spread. In the US alone, it is estimated that I 50 million birds have killed, which experts say is probably a vast undercount. It is picking up steam now that summer is over. A walk through the supermarket will cause your wallet to cry - massively expensive eggs and poultry, if it is even in stock. And these prices and shortages cascade through other products from industry.

It doesn’t look to get better anytime soon. A turkey shortage may impact what’s on the table this holiday season. Grocers and delis alike are running out of the meat, driving the price of poultry even higher amid inflation.

OBSERVATION - Not good, chicken that sold at about $1.20/lb is now north of $4. A photo of a general frozen turkey had a price over $100. Will this be the year of tofu turkeys?

Increased U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) exports may squeeze domestic supply, increasing prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the U.S. will need to bolster production if it wants to maintain export frequency without causing significant price hikes over both short and long-term outlooks.

OBSERVATION - Crisis in Europe is driving this, along with biden policies shutting down the oil and gas industry.

RELATED - US coal prices have gone over the $200 per ton mark for the first time. Price spike due in part to natural gas demands.

Speaking at a two-day financial conference, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic warned that inflationary pressures would likely remain.

OBSERVATION - Meaning more increases to the Fed rate likely in the foreseeable future.

OPEC is looking at the possibility of cutting production by 2 million barrels / day and increase of one million over previous projections. If this occurs per OPEC schedule, gasoline prices will be spiking just before the midterm elections.

OBSERVATION - Though there is a political angle, the economic angle is stronger. Recessions reduct production demands and those demands reduce oil consumption. In the past, oil producing states took it hard during recessions having a glut of oil no one could buy - thus reducing the prices. OPEC seems to be getting ahead of this curve by reducing production and maintaining prices favorable to them.

Invasion of Illegals -

According to Customs and Border Protection (CBP), arrests by Border Patrol agents of migrants with prior criminal convictions rose from 2,438 in 2020 to 10,778 in 2022. The total for the year will be finalized and later this month.
A source within CBP, not authorized to speak to the media, told Breitbart Texas the count reflects migrants who have prior criminal convictions in the United States. The source says access to foreign criminal databases are limited and time constraints during post-arrest preclude efforts to check violations of foreign laws.
A Customs and Border Protection source reported that the agents witnessed 599,000 migrant “gotaways” in FY2022. Combined with FY2021 numbers, nearly one million ‘getaways’ entered the US. For comparison, Y020 saw only 69,000 gotaways.

Biden / Harris watch -

“I was sort of raised in the Puerto Rican community at home, politically” -
biden lying again - According to the 1970 US Census, Delaware had about 2,154 people who were either born in Puerto Rico or descended from Puerto Rican parents — roughly 0.39% of the First State’s population of nearly 550,000 at the time.

North/South Korea -

North Korea fired a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile from Jagang area yesterday. The missile flew 4,600 km (2,860 miles) before falling in the Pacific Ocean, traveling further than any North Korean missile to date. The flight lasted about 22 minutes. This distance would place Guam in reach.

See Japan for other details below

OBSERVATION - North Korea has been ramping up its escalation with nearly daily short range SLBMs. With this launch speculation has increased about a potential nuclear test.
ADDITIONAL NOTE - Though it may have not been deliberate, OSINT analysts note that the flight path of the missile may have carried it over the USS Ronald Reagan as it was transiting past Japan following its exercise off S Korea. .

Japan -

According to the Japanese govt, the NK missile flew over Japan and into the Pacific. This is the first NK missile test to fly over Japanese territory in five years. Authorities in Japan alerted the public and advised they take shelter.

NHK reporting just now that “the missile has flown over Aomori prefecture” and fallen into the Pacific. Northern most island

OBSERVATION - This will help drive Japan to accelerate its military build up

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
NUKE WATCH -

There is currently no evidence that Russia is moving nuclear weapons into position at this time.

There are reports of a train usually part of Russias 12th directorate MOD responsible for nuclear weapons logistics/maneuvers spotted heading towards Ukraine from central Russia. On board were 4x4 BPM-97 Vystrel light armored vehicles fitted with turrets armed with 30mm cannons. A video and a picture of what may be the same train carrying the BPM-97s, as well as other trucks.

In the Russian military, BPM-97s, in general, are almost exclusively associated with so-called “counter-sabotage” security contingents within the 12th Main Directorate, which is responsible for maintaining, sustaining, guarding, and otherwise overseeing elements of the country’s nuclear arsenal. Units from this directorate, also known by its Russian acronym 12th GUMO, would be tasked with escorting nuclear weapons to operational units if called upon.

OBSERVATION - The general consensus is that this train does not indicate nuclear weapons are being prepared for deployment or use in Ukraine. Most see this as a high likelihood of Russia, once again, stripping assets to support the war in Ukraine. Such a security/police asset would be highly usable in the effort to stem the Ukrainian offensives - particularly actions by guerrilla forces that have been causing so much trouble in rear areas.

There are also reports and concerns that the Russian K-329 Belgorod Nuclear Submarine with significant Nuclear strike capabilities including Poseidon AUVs has left its White Sea base. Associated are reports that NATO has disseminated an urgent intelligence report to all of its members and allies with an alert that Russia is expected to test a nuclear-capable Poseidon AUV, possibly in the Black Sea.

Russian Poseidon AUVs can deliver nuclear warheads originally designed for the destruction of coastal infrastructure as a second nuclear strike option. They are still in the development stage as too is the Belgorod. Intelligence community analysts believe a combat deployment of the Poseidon drone is unlikely at this stage of its development.

OBSERVATION - With all the hype, the Belgorod is still in the testing out phase, much like the USS Ford. As noted above, it is unlikely to have a finished Position and if it did, Turkey, under current prohibitions, would not let it into the Black Sea. Even a test of a separate Position would not be advisable given the numerous US and NATO intelligence assets in the region.

Logistics -
- Social media and OSINT sources tracking equipment losses in the Ukraine war note an increasing number of old T-62 tanks being abandoned in the Kherson region.

Ukraine -

RUMINT -
Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian counter attacks developing in the Bakhmut region.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine has gained new ground in the Kherson region in the towns of Myroliubivka, Lyubymivka, Zolota Balka, Mykhailivka, Shyikivka and Harylivka over the past two days. Initial reports of Russians pulling back in this region to prevent being cut off.

The fewer missile strikes yesterday and overnight were mostly land launched with few aircraft operating. Improved weather conditions in the next 24hrs may see an increase again. The majority of missile strikes now are adapted land launched missiles (S300) or Iranian drones.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian sources reporting that Ukrainian troops liberated Izyumske and Druzhelyubivka, about 25km southwest of Svatove. Kreminna-Svatove highway is under Ukrainian fire control - anything Russian is attacked.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continue to launch attacks on Bakhmut and associate villages to the north and south. The bulk of Russian artillery activity in Ukraine supported the attacks. These attacks are unsuccessful.
See RUMINT above.

Crimean front ———
Activity along the northern Kherson front increased overnight with partially confirmed reports that Russian forces are pulling back along a much broader front in response to the Ukraine breakout. Withdrawal appears to be an attempt to prevent a large portion of the Russian force being cut off as happened in Lyman. However, with this withdrawal, Ukrainian forces have launched new attacks west of the original break out, maintaining pressure on Russian forces, preventing them from establishing defensive positions and rolling up the flank.
It is estimated that as many as 25,000 Russian troops are essentially trapped on the west bank of the Dnipro

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Watching closely the developments both in Kherson as well as the push in the east to capture Svatove and Kreminna. In both, the Russian rear areas are compromised and Ukraine is pushing hard on retreating Russian forces to prevent them from being able to establish any kind of cohesive defense. Kherson could potentially cause the largest Russian losses of the war, while Svatove and Kreminna would serve as a spring board to reverse Russian gains during the “Phase 2” operation to capture the Donbas.

Belarus -

Lukashenka accuses Poland and Lithuania in building up military forces near the Belarusian borders. Blames Ukraine in setting up defense infrastructure and deploying 15 thousands troops on the border. He further said that Belarus is taking part in military operation in Ukraine by protecting Russia in Belarus from Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

OBSERVATION - putin probably put some pressure on Lukashenka when they met as Sochi last week. His statements above suggest that he doesn’t want to get involved in Ukraine proper. His aggressive statements towards Poland, Latvia and Lithuania is probably just talk as well. I don’t think there is domestic support for a fight in that direction.

Poland -

Minister of Defense of Poland Mariush Blashchak aid at the opening of the Warsaw Security Forum that the Lukashenka government should bear equal responsibility along with the Russian Federation for the war against Ukraine

.
Europe / NATO General -

Over 4,000 Norwegian Soldiers have reportedly received orders to be deployed to Strategically Important Locations throughout Norway and the North Sea, the Norwegian Government has said this number may increase alongside the Defensive needs of the Country. Norwegian troops have been deployed to guard oil facilities.

Iran -

Protests continue to grow across the country and are gaining supporters from other sectors of the society. Govt supporters called in to help quell the protests are increasingly resorting to lethal measures to try to quell the rebellions.

Iraq -

Iran has been making attacks on Iraqi Kurds for the last ten days. Iran’s mullah regime falsely blames Iraqi and Iranian Kurds for the anti-hijab protests that have taken place for the last two weeks.

Lebanon -

Lebanese Prime Minister says the maritime border demarcation negotiations with Israel are on the right track.

Hump day.
Having challenges getting used to a bluetooth keyboard as the laptop keyboard is showing signs of wearing out.

Wuhan virus -

There are a number of ”reports” on the interwebs claiming linkage of the jab to deaths. However, most do not actually cite a study but another internet personality as the source. While the observations and claims are likely valid given the numbers of peer reviewed studies out there making linkage, I prefer to peruse the original papers as too many times I don’t see the claims matching the information in the papers.

Economy -

The U.S. national debt has passed $31 trillion for the first time in history.
Treasury Department data released Tuesday showed that the total national debt was $31.123 trillion as of Monday.

OBSERVATION - This doesn’t include other obligations on the books. Uncontrolled debt puts us directly on the path of national economic disaster.

According to a survey of 400 leaders of large US companies by consulting firm KPMG, a whopping 91% are predicting a recession in the next 12 months. What’s more, the survey, released Tuesday, found that only 34% of these CEOs think the recession will be mild and short.
“There has been tremendous uncertainty over the past two and a half years,” said Paul Knopp, chairman and CEO of KPMG US, referring to the Covid-19 pandemic and worries about inflation. “Now, we have another looming recession.”

OBSERVATION - Contra to the administration narrative. These people make their living reading the tea leaves - contrary to those in the govt who live in a bubble.

CNN Senior National Security Correspondent Alex Marquardt reported that the White House is “panicking” over the prospect that OPEC will cut oil production and is engaging in a “furious, last-ditch, wide-scale effort” to lobby against a production cut.
RELATED- According to recent AAA data, in California, gas in the last week has risen by 52 cents to $6.412 per gallon. For Arizona, which is seen as a contentious battleground state, the price last week leaped 30 cents. In the swing state of Nevada, the price jumped nearly 40 cents in the past seven days. And for Washington state, which poses an upset for Democrats’ in the Senate race, the price since last Tuesday went up 30 cents.

OBSERVATION - Here in my corner of the Redoubt, prices just jumped 13 cents/gallon. Inflation is the number one issue on the minds of voters and the current transjectory of prices looks to having them spike prior to the mid terms. Not good for democrat chances at the polls.

CW2/Domestic violence -

The proximity to the midterms is getting closer, but there has been no significant action that could be used by Antifa et al to trigger and sustain protests and rioting that could disrupt the elections.

POLITICAL FRONT -

We are 5 weeks from the midterms.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan is returning to the East Sea (Sea of Japan) following North Korea’s IRBM test, according to Yonhap News Agency. Probable purpose is to show the flag and not any military action against NK.

North/South Korea -

South Korea & U.S. fired 4 ground-to-ground missiles (ATACAMS) into East Sea in response to North Korea’s launch of a medium range missile. One missile misfired and exploded at a SK airbase.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Bad days continue for putin.

Putin signed papers on annexation of occupied Ukrainian regions, ratified earlier by State Duma and Federation Council of Russia.

Allies of puttin are taking increasingly negative commentary against putin for his (mis)handling of the Ukranian war and the current mobilization dumpster fire.

NUKE WATCH -
A Russian ICBM test is likely before October 9th. NOTHAM have been issued from Plesetsk to Kura, 05 to 09 October, every day 08:00-14:00 (UTC). NOTAM’s Q8967/22, P8195/22 and P8195/22.

Logistics -
- Social media and OSINT sources tracking equipment losses in the Ukraine war note an increasing number of old T-62 tanks being abandoned in the Kherson region.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov redeployed from Syria to be appointed as the new commander of the Western Military District, replacing Zhuravlev, who is being blamed for the collapse of the Kharkiv sector.
- The ongoing ‘partial’ call up of forces continues to be a cluster. Mismanagement and handling is quickly souring in the peoples mouth and even putin supporters are turning on him.

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts. In some cases, actions were happening too fast keep up with.
Russia appears to have replied to its losses by launching a significant barrage of Iranian made drones against targets near Kyiv and Odesa.

Kyiv front ——
Bila Tserkva, 80 km north of Kyiv, was attacked by at least 12-14 Iranian Shahed-136 drones, six of which were reportedly shot down.

The city council of Kyiv says it is providing evacuation centers with potassium iodine pills in preparation for a possible nuclear strike on the capital.
NOTE- commonly used for nuclear reactor disasters due to the release of radioactive iodine, the pills swamp the thyroid with regular iodine, preventing the absorption of the radioactive isotope. It is not particularly effective against radiation poisoning from a nuclear blast. However, issuing them is likely a way to calm the populous.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery fire.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Minor Russian ground attack at a couple border locations, both repulsed. Scattered artillery as well around Kharkiv.

Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast west of Svatove and have pulled to about 20 km of the town

Ukraine forces keep pushing eastward from Lyman towards Kreminnia

Donetsk Oblast ——
More failed Russian attacks on Bakhmut and associated villages.

Russian sources expressed continued concern that Ukrainian forces may launch a counterattack on the eastern Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast front line in the coming days.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian forces pushed south along the Dnipro River and the T0403 highway, severing two Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in northern Kherson Oblast and forcing Russians south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border toward the Beryslav area. Russian forces are reportedly collapsing under Ukrainian advances in northern Kherson Oblast and fleeing southward.

The following link goes to a twitter page showing a time lapse estimate of the action created by ISW. Theirs is the more conservative of many maps out there trying to document the action.

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1577465666176548864?s=61&t=4EcSCZvntIx5ogjaYGAT-Q

Russia also attacked Odesa with 15 Iranian-made Shahed-136. Ukrainian air-defense forces were able to shoot down 6 of them

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russian forces are quickly coming unglued in the Kherson region and they are having extreme difficulty reorienting their defenses to face the Ukrainian push. As with the action in Kharkiv, large numbers of armor and tanks are being abandoned. Some are thinking that this is due to them running out of fuel.
Analysts are thinking that retreating Russian forces are trying to reach either Kherson or Nova Kakhovka - both places that have a wildly outside chance of being able to cross the Dnipir River. This analysis is depicted in the following link.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeQSiosWAAEvNRC?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

One key note, there is a lot of speculation in this analysis. Russian command and control has gotten so poor that such an organized withdrawal may not be feasible. In either case, Ukraine has river crossings cut off - and the Russians either have to surrender, die in place or risk death fleeing across the river.

Back in the east, Russia is desperately trying to stem the offensive to protect key cities of Svatove and Kreminnia. If Kreminnia falls, then Severodonets’k and Lysychans’k flanks and logistic routes will be compromised and these cities pressured and will likely fall.

Important to watch to see what progress Ukraine’s offensives make today.

Inclosing, just a couple notes about Russia’s current tactics. First, they are still throwing soldiers and equipment in frontal attacks on Bakhmut. It is know that this effort is being lead by Wagner Group mercenaries, but even they should be able to see how fruitless the effort is. This is tying up resources that could be thrown into the defense of other sectors.

Second, the sudden Russian reliance Iranian drones over its own systems. For the past six months we’ve been hearing that they’ve been running out of their cruse and other missiles. This shortfall has become apparent recently with the expanded use of S-300 in a ground attack role and now Iranian drones. Russian interdiction of Ukrainian logistics trains and facilities has dropped to near zero. This is in stark contrast to Ukrainian success. By nearly every metric - Russia’s military is a mess and their actions are only making matters worse.

Iran -

Rioting continues throughout the country. Of note - 40% of Iranians are under 24 yrs old, as that group has come of age they’ve gone sour on the islamic ‘revolution’. What makes this moment different, is that it involves a generation far removed from the 1979 revolution, the via the internet has seen a freer world and that wants change.

News seems to come in surges lately, and this is one of those days. Buckle up for the ride.

Globalism / Great Reset -

Louisiana is pulling $794 million from BlackRock funds, saying the asset-management giant’s views on ESG investing are damaging to the state’s energy industry. The move is part of a continuing backlash against New York-based BlackRock over its advocacy for sustainable investing. In Texas, some lawmakers are seeking to steer money away from BlackRock and other firms they deem harmful to oil and gas companies. Meanwhile, the company has faced criticism from environmental advocates for not doing more to combat climate change.

OBSERVATION - This will be a minor set back for BlackRock and GGR, but they will continue to leverage their assets to force ESG on the world anyway.

The Swiss Central Bank reported a first-half LOSS of $100.08 billion, and now they are closely watching one of its largest banks. Detaches bank is also under watch.

Increasing discussion over the Feds policy to strengthen the dollar in the face of challenges by the Chinese yuan and Russian ruble. While some point to a strong dollar as a means to fight inflation, it causes foreign central banks to print more money to buy more expensive dollars for foreign trade, which drives the dollar’s value even higher. The Federal Reserve’s strong dollar policy is causing global liquidity issues because there aren’t enough dollars to go around. Some are indicating that this is a deliberate act by the Fed, to break the system. The fed policy is linked to the UK’s bond market near meltdown last week is an example of what will hit other countries.

OBSERVATION - A deliberate meltdown of global markets would make it far easier for a global reset to be initiated.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to announce today that U.S. will overhaul the World Bank to meet the needs of the changing global financial landscape.

OBSERVATION - International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s annual meetings are scheduled take place next week and Yellen’s overhaul calls may take firm shape then.

Wuhan virus -

A survey conducted by health policy nonprofit organization Kaiser Family Foundation reported that some two-thirds of American adults in the U.S. do not plan on receiving an updated COVID-19 booster shot. The survey, which polled 1,534 adults from 16th to 26th September, also found that only one-third of those polled said they have already received a booster or plan to get one as soon as possible.

In a study published in JAMA Pediatrics it is being reported that trace amounts of COVID-19 vaccine mRNA were detected in breast milk samples obtained from seven out of 11 lactating women. The journal also tweeted that “caution is warranted regarding breastfeeding infants younger than six months in the first two days after maternal COVID-19 injection.”

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2796427

There are about 648 reports registered in the VAERS system on babies who suffered adverse events after being exposed to COVID-19 vaccines through breastfeeding.

OBSERVATION - The record continues to build on the dangerous and deadly attributes of the jab - the ‘cure’ becoming worse than the disease. I can only hope and pray that Pfizer/Moderna/Fauci et al will be brought to trial over this.

Non-peer reviewed data from VAIERS data in the US as well as similar data in the UK and Canada suggests a linkage to an increase in AIDS and the jab. Needs higher level review to confirm the correlation. It has already been noted in medical journals/publications that the mRNA interferes with the natural immunity system, degrading it significantly, so these separate correlation statistical studies have a basis in current medical reality (though grossly underreported)

Economy -

OPEC + Agrees to Cut Production by 2 Million Barrels a Day (Reuters). Major cut, a snub to US & others, oil prices to go up.
President Biden on Wednesday said he would release 10 million more barrels of oil from the U.S.’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November in a move to counter raising gas prices again.
His decision was announced just hours after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) said it would be cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day. (Only 5 days worth )

OBSERVATION - A huge slap in the face to biden who now has an excuse to drain the stratigic reserve nearly dry. Higher gasoline prices will be like a boat anchor to democrats come midterms.

Data released Tuesday about U.S. job openings in August showed the number fell by more than a million positions compared with July, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Reuters reported the decline of 1.1 million is the biggest drop for the statistic since April 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic was just beginning its murderous march through the country’s economy.
It’s also twice as big a drop as economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted, the news agency reported.

OBSERVATION - Another indicator that businesses are positioning themselves for a recession.

The pace of mortgage applications has fallen to a multi-decade low amid high housing interest rates, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, declined by 14.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ended Sept. 30, 2022, compared to a year earlier. The Refinance Index fell 18 percent from the previous week, while the Purchase Index registered a decrease of 13 percent.
Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, pointed out that overall mortgage application activity dropped to its “slowest pace” since 1997, according to a press release on Oct. 5.

OBSERVATION - There is no turn around in this trend in sight, especially with as much as another 75 point raise in the prime rate by the Fed before the end of the year. the fed has said that it is willing to throw the housing market under the bus in order to get inflation under control. However, they may be cutting off the wrong side of the branch they are sitting on by doing so.

The Fed reports more than half of Americans saw a decrease in wages in the last 12 months, in large part due to inflation. According to the The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, “We find that a majority of employed workers’ real (inflation-adjusted) wages have failed to keep up with inflation in the past year,” the bank said. “For these workers, the median decline in real wages is a little more than 8.5 percent. Taken together, these outcomes appear to be the most severe faced by employed workers over the past 25 years.”
The Fed bank reported that more than half of Americans saw a decrease in wages in the last 12 months.

OBSERVATION - This cannot be good news for biden et al, as inflation is one of the top, if not the top concern for voters in the upcoming midterms.

Invasion of Illegals -

A federal appeals court on Wednesday said the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy violates U.S. immigration law, dealing a blow to an Obama-era program that provides deportation protection and work permits to nearly 600,000 immigrant “Dreamers” who lack legal status.
A three-judge panel for the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals concluded the Obama administration did not have the legal authority to create DACA in 2012, affirming a July 2021 ruling from a federal judge in Texas who barred the Biden administration from enrolling new immigrants in the decade-old program.
Despite its conclusion, the appeals court did not order the Biden administration to shut down DACA completely or stop processing renewal applications, deciding instead to leave in place an order from U.S. Judge Andrew Hanen that left the policy intact for current beneficiaries. The government, however, will continue to be prohibited from approving first-time DACA applications.
Biden blasted “MAGA” Republicans after the court ruling.
“My administration is committed to defending Dreamers against attacks from Republican officials in Texas and other states. This challenge to DACA is just another example of the extreme agenda being pushed by MAGA-Republican officials.”
According to Reuters, Texas and a coalition of states with Republican attorneys general in 2018 sued to end DACA, arguing it was illegally implemented.

OBSERVATION - Since this is at the appeals court level, expect more law fare pushing it to the USSC again.

The Department of Defense (DoD) requested that up to 2,500 members of the National Guard be deployed to the U.S.-Mexico border to assist immigration officials in handling the massive influx of illegal immigrants. Responding states include - Kentucky, South Carolina and Arkansas, as well as Democratic-led states such as Rhode Island and Illinois will all be sending assistance. Other states sending troops include Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, DOD officials said.
“Several other states – Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oregon, Utah and Washington – will be providing National Guard aviation support for border operations, according to the department.”

OBSERVATION - But our border is safe and secure . . . .

Biden / Harris watch -

Many on the Republican side are clamoring to impeach biden when they gain control of congress after the midterms (still very likely barring drastic “October surprise”). IMHO it would be better to force an Article 25 removal for mental incompetence. Such a move would enable republicans to challenge the numerous EOs and laws he has recently signed on the basis of not being mentally competent to do so. This may well blow back to some degree on republican leadership who’ve been silent on the matter.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Far Left outlet Fight Back! News revealed that they intend to protest outside of the 2024 Republican and Democratic National Conventions.

OBSERVATION - While this is two years out, evidence of planning at this time indicates they are planning to go big.

Our Rights DC plans to lead simultaneous marches through the neighborhoods of the six conservative Supreme Court Justices. The marches are protesting the hearing of cases for affirmative action, Alabama redistricting, and the Indian Children’s Welfare Act.

OBSERVATION - Done expect law enforcement to do anything about it.

DoJ is increasingly using the FBI to harass Pro-life activists via accusations of violating the Freedom of Access to Clinic Act (FACE) and conspiracy charges, which could result in up to 10 years in prison. This activity has increased following the USSC’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade. In these instances, large numbers of agents have been observed forcibly entering homes of these advocates with guns drawn.

OBSERVATION - Aggressive tactics by the FBI are designed to scare and intimidate. There is just no reason otherwise. Just another piece of evidence that the DoJ et al have turned enemies of the citizens. Just look at the inaction by the DoJ towards the acts of vandalism and threats made by proaborts or Antifa et al.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Twitter employees in melt down again as Musk’s purchase appears to be moving forward again.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

2,500 U.S. and Philippine Marines began joint combat exercises this week. The exercises, named after the Tagalog word for cooperation, Kamandag, involve amphibious assaults and special operations mission sets.
The U.S. Marines are also conducting related simultaneous joint exercises with Japan’s Self Defense forces on Hokkaido.

Cyber Warfare -

The FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said on Wednesday that both agencies are confident that election infrastructure will not be compromised during the 2022 midterms. “As of the date of this report, the FBI and CISA have no reporting to suggest cyber activity has ever prevented a registered voter from casting a ballot, compromised the integrity of any ballots cast, or affected the accuracy of voter registration information. Any attempts tracked by FBI and CISA have remained localized and were blocked or successfully mitigated with minimal or no disruption to election processes,” the statement said.

OBSERVATION - Thumb drives . . . . . .

China -

The Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense has announced that they will now see any violations of its airspace by the Chinese Military that come within 12 Nautical-Miles of the Island as Beijing launching a “First Strike” that would warrant them to respond with a counterattack.

OBSERVATION - CAREFUL NOTE China has been flooding the air and sea with large numbers of vessels and aircraft since pelosi’s visit. It is believed that they are doing so in order to ‘normalize’ the activity which will be useful in obscuring real activity when China decides to launch its attack. This far more aggressive posture by Taiwan could easily result in a shooting war. However, it would not be to China’s advantage at this stage since it still isn’t prepared to follow up with an invasion force. Additionally, the global and domestic political battlefield (incorporating public opinion) is not ready as well. China may well toe the line and even get shot at but not break into full war just yet. They could implement a blockade instead.

North/South Korea -

Reports North Korea launched what appears to be 2 short-range ballistic missiles likely from Pyongyang overnight.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Bad days continue for putin.

Russia has become the largest weapons supplier to Ukraine. 320 tanks have been transferred to UKR by the west— an additional 421 were abandoned by RU and placed into UKR service. IFVs, 210 from the west, 445 from RU, armored vehicles, 40 from the west, and 192 from RU.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering the seizure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility. Russian officials said, “relevant agencies” of the Russian government will control and operate the facility.

RUMINT -
There appears to be infighting and power plays developing between the Russian general staff and a Prigozhin-Kadyrov alliance (Wagner/Chechen) over Russian failures in Ukraine and the current gaggle of the ‘partial mobilization’. Prigozhin-Kadyrov have been very outspoken of late against the Russian Ministry of Defence and Shoigu specifically. It appears that Shoigu is losing as Putin as he has promoted Kadyrov to Colonel-General amid rumors of a senior new war role for the brutal Chechen leader. The Kremlin loyalist boasted in video that he had been ‘personally congratulated’ by the Russian despot, amid fears the warlord could be poised for even greater responsibility in Ukraine.
This is a very dangerous game because by doing so, putin endangers himself with a potential coup that Prigozhin-Kadyrov would be unable to stop, lacking forces in Moscow.

Logistics -
- Leaked from a classified study by unnamed US officials, the US assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian media reported that mobilized men in the Belgorod region are rebelling because of terrible conditions, lack of food and roof, and that they were given decommissioned weapons. In the videos, they claim that among 500 new drafters many got cold, weren’t assigned to any unit

Economic Impact
- EU Council agreed on a new package of individual and economic sanctions in response to the escalation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. It includes: an oil price cap, trade restrictions and new listings

- Speaking to the media, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia would likely cut oil production in response to any price cap implemented by the EU. The comments came as EU countries debate a potential price cap on Russian oil and gas products that would match that proposed by the G7. Novak said such measures would constitute a “breach of all the market mechanisms” that would negatively impact the oil industry, adding Russia would “be ready to cut production.”

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A slow down of the tactical momentum as Ukraine consolidates its gains in both Kherson and Kharkiv offensives. However, they are not letting up on the pressure. The pressure being exerted on both fronts has Russian occupation authorities scrambling to evacuate.
Russia continues failing attacks against Bakhmut and limited, sporadic artillery attacks along the LOCs.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered Russian artillery strikes along the border reported.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukranian offensive in the region continues. As Ukranian forces press in , Russian authorities announced the evacuation of social and medical facilities from Svatove and Kreminna. Russian is still trying to reorganize its forces that broke and ran from Ukrainian forces over the past month into some sort of credible defense. Untrained mobilized Russians are showing up in the region as well, adding to the confusion.

Ukrainian forces are well established east of the Oskil River and Donets River, eliminating those natural obstacles . Analysts indicate that Ukraine is entering into terrain that favors its combined arms maneuver operations more than Russian defensive tactics (if any)

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian continues frontal attacks against Bakhmut and cities to the north and south. All without success. Attacks supported by relatively heavy artillery - though far less than Russia could deploy only a few months ago.
Sporadic Russian artillery along the LOC further to the south and west of Donetsk.

Ukranian offensive to the north in Kharkiv Oblast may soon be pivoting southward depending on the success of any attack on Svatove and Kreminna.

Crimean front ———
Ukranian forces are taking a slight pause to consolidate given the rapidity of operations the last several days. Forces keep pushing southward from David Brid. Russian sources report Ukranian forces building up northwest of Kherson.

Russians are reportedly suffering significant losses in the Kherson region, hospitals are full of wounded, according to the first deputy head of the regional council Yuriy Sobolevskyi. Heavy helicopter operations noted into and out of Kherson - the only way to get men and supplies into and out of the city.

Russian authorities have declared school holidays beginning today until 21 October to ensure “everybody’s security”. Schoolchildren from Kherson will be evacuated to occupied Crimea.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian Tu-22 M3 bombers launched Kh-22 missiles from Belarusian airspace against Khmelnitsky region earlier today, for the first time since August.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
More bad days ahead for Russian on both fronts. The collapse of Russian forces show that command is in disarray and there are no reserves to fall back on. Any reinforcements seem to be those mobilized and sent immediately to the front. Russian equipment losses are staggering.

Most likely tempo will pick up again towards the weekend as Ukraine is using the slow down in the ground campaign to further target Russian CPs, logistics and troop concentration.

Belarus -

Lukashenka ordered to impose a ban on price increases in Belarus from October 6.

OBSERVATION - He has too many problems at home to be going out and attempting anything militarily against Ukraine.

Poland -

Recent news that Poland suggested to the US that it host nuclear weapons.

Israel -

Tensions remain high in Israel as it enters the Yon Kippor and related holy days.

Iran -

Iranian national police and security forces have been deployed to university campuses across the country after clashes between student protestors and Iranian officials and security forces. Student groups are calling for the dissolution of the Iranian government following the death of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian Masha Amin, who died while in the custody of Iran’s morality police. Protests/riots are in their third week and show no signs of ending.

Lebanon -

An Israeli official stated that the chances of an agreement on the maritime border with Lebanon before the elections are low. Meanwhile, Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati says the maritime border deal with Israel will prevent a regional war.

Syria -

The American forces carried out raid in the village of Molouk Saray, affiliated with the Pro-Assad forces, south of Qamishli, at dawn on Thursday. The raid reportedly killed an Islamic State official hiding out there: Reuters

Misc of Note -

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is purchasing a supply of the drug Nplate from Amgen USA Inc; Nplate is approved to treat blood cell injuries that accompany acute radiation syndrome in adult and pediatric patients (ARS).

OBSERVATION - Back in the Before Times, this action would be cheered as a proactive measure to protect the American people. However today, the govt has squandered that trust and actions like this are now viewed with a great deal of skepticism.

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