A reminder, I won’t be posting Fri - Sun and may be late on Monday. On the road. If I do see something critical rearing its head I’ll try to get word out.
Economy -
The traditional Thanksgiving dinner may be skyrocketing out of reach for many Americans this year. The bird flu pandemic that has killed tens of millions of our chickens and turkeys was supposed to go away during the hot summer months, but that didn’t happen. And now that the weather is starting to get colder again, there has been a resurgence of the bird flu and this is “devastating egg and turkey operations in the heartland of the country”. As a result turkeys are selling for record high prices ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Turkey hens are $1.82 a pound this week, according to Urner Barry, compared to $1.42 last year and $1.01 before the pandemic. Meanwhile, wholesale egg prices are at $3.62 a dozen as of Wednesday, the highest ever, up from a previous record of $3.45 a dozen set earlier this year, said John Brunnquell, chief executive officer of Egg Innovations, one of the biggest US producers of free-range eggs. Consumers have seen prices for eggs at grocery stores triple this year, while turkey meat rose a record-setting 60%, according to a Cobank report.
Meanwhile, supplies of butter are steadily getting tighter as well. Lower milk production on U.S. dairy farms and labor shortages for processing plants have weighed on butter output for months, leaving the amount of butter in U.S. cold storage facilities at the end of July the lowest since 2017, according to the Agriculture Department. Here in the Redoubt prices have surged to more than $4/lb for butter.
OBSERVATION - Its just Thanksgiving right? It is an indicator of a food industry that is on a delicate balance and can tip with the right push. All is interconnected in one way or another - food, fuel, fertilizer, disease, etc. See Europe / NATO on the collapse of the European steel industry
Hurricane Ian has been brutal to Florida, with initial damage estimated to exceed 70 billion. That price tag, according to Bloomberg citing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, would make Ian among the costliest storms in US history, as the top end of that range would rank Ian as the sixth-costliest US hurricane. Difficulties in getting needed material and supplies to victims due to snagged supply chains are likely to raise costs even further.
OBSERVATION - Lack of preparation on the parts of the people and insurance companies may leave many out to dry. Additionally, much of the damage is flood related, not covered by regular insurance. So if owners didn’t pay attention to their policies they will be out even more. The draw on reconstruction resources will likely cause inflation to spike - particularly in the southeast, but could be reflected across the rest of the country one way or another.
BTW - You know the action is hot when Jim Cantore shows up and is even hotter when he gets hit by a flying tree branch during hurricane report. He was lucky.
The U.S. economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter in the three months ended June, according to the final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, meeting the criteria for a so-called technical recession as raging inflation and higher interest rates weighed on spending. The updated report, released Thursday, showed that gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, shrank by 0.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter. That is below the initially reported 0.9% decline and unchanged from the second reading of a 0.6% decline.
OBSERVATION - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is trying to spin this by modifying their definition of a recession. I don’t think the population is going to accept that spin. Non-govt banking and economists keep saying we are peering into a maul of a major recession - contra the federal narrative.
The Washington Post is spewing out article how we should be happy to be going into recession.
Biden / Harris watch -
Waiting to see what gaffs harris made in S K.
CW2/Domestic violence -
A growing partnership between third party data brokers and law enforcement agencies is raising alarm bells among civil liberties lawyers. In a little noted trend, law enforcement agencies at every level of government are increasingly buying data from private, third-party data brokers on Americans’ phone and internet activities in order to track them, often without a warrant. Govt entities like law enforcement hav been using a tool, Fog Reveal, a product of the company Fog Data Science, which claims it has “billions” of data points about “over 250 million” devices that can be used to learn where people work, live, and associate, going back months in time.
OBSERVATION - Tracking ‘threats’ (yep that’s you and me constitution loving American “domestic terrorists”). A major step in controlling the population.
A 38-year-old Antifa member and career criminal in San Diego is the first to be convicted over a violent Antifa conspiracy to attack Donald Trump supporters and beachgoers at Pacific Beach in January 2021. Erich Louis Yach, of San Ysidro, Calif., admitted to conspiracy to riot, assaulting multiple persons and unlawfully using tear gas as a weapon, plus other felonies in court on Wednesday.
The 10 other alleged Antifa members charged over the Pacific Beach attack for various felonies are: Alexander Akridge-Jacobs, 31, Jesse Merel Cannon, 32, Joseph Austin Gaskins, 21, Brian Cortez Lightfoot Jr., 25, Christian Martinez, 23, Luis Francisco Mora, 30, Samuel Howard Ogden, 24, Bryan Rivera, 20, Faraz Martin Talab, 27, and Jeremy Jonathan White, 39.
In June, a secret grand jury indicted Yach and 10 other alleged Antifa members accused of being part of a network of violent cells in southern California that planned and carried out brutal attacks during a riot in Pacific Beach, Calif. on Jan. 9 last year. Video recorded at the riot showed the mob in black bloc assaulting multiple victims with weapons. Trump supporters, minors, a photojournalist and a man and his dog walking on the beach were all hurt during the attacks. Multiple weapons and firearms were seized from suspects during executed search warrants.
OBSERVATION - The SD Dist Atty case is the first time prosecutors sought to unmask Antifa cells in California. Were this to have occurred in Portland or Seattle this would have never happened. This kind of push back has been desperately needed.
POLITICAL FRONT -
House Democratic leadership’s stock ban bill, which covers spouses and dependent children, might not see a vote before the November election takes place.
OBSERVATION - No accountability for the chosen ones.
China -
Chinese Navy / Army has been practicing landing operations using massive civilian ferrys much bigger capacity than landing ships (LSD). It is probable that these would be used as follow on waves after the assault area is secured.
North/South Korea -
South Korea’s military says North Korea has fired at least one ballistic missile toward its eastern waters.
The launch on Thursday came hours after Vice President Kamala Harris departed from South Korea, the last stop of a four-day Asian trip.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the their defeat, Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Reports of completely untrained conscripts from the latest ‘mobilization’ on the font lines already.
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Bad days continue for putin.
Putin’s spokesperson announced that ceremony to annex occupied Ukrainian lands tomorrow (Sep 30) at 15:00 Moscow time, Putin is expected to make a statement at that time. It is suspected that putin will now restate the reason for the ‘special operation’ and give a warning to Ukraine and NATO to cease attacking Russian territory.
NUKE WATCH -
One key aspect that rolls through the head is how willing are Russia’s generals in the nuclear chain of action going to be to actually follow an order from putin to unleash the nuclear genie. One cannot expect conventional wisdom that they would halt the order and put putin out of power. That just doesn’t seem to be in the cards considering the continued support of the Ukrainian meat grinder. What has Russia done so far in the war that might give a clue. Russia has indiscriminately bombed civilian and residential targets throughout most of the war. If they are willing to raze cities to the ground with conventional weapons (which they are getting close to running out of) The level of destruction that a tactical nuke would inflict in a similar way would not be much greater - depending on the size of the bomb.
The rhetoric of his MSM and other supporters has long gone on dehumanizing the Ukrainian people, making such an application easier for the Russian populace to accept.
If Russia were to do the ‘unthinkable’, I suspect that it would use its strategic bombers to launch the strike. Easier access to a nuclear stockpile to load up a missile with little intelligence footprint, versus transporting a ground or sea launched warhead into the theatre. As I push aside my normalcy bias, I’m seeing a lot of pieces of the nuclear puzzle that if they align could set off a nuclear conflict.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- More evidence that recently mobilized conscripts are being immediately put on the front lines comes from the Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai says the first mobilized Russian troops have arrived on the frontlines
As they arrived one week after mobilization, they have no training at all and are being used to stabilize the frontlines in Donbas.
- Hundreds of thousands of conscript qualified Russians have fled the country. Most appear to be highly educated or from well off families that can afford to get them out.
- Russia has redeployed up to 80 percent of troops from its borders on the Baltic states and Finland to plug losses in Ukraine, according to officials. European officials said there could be just 6,000 Russian troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics.
Economic Impact -
- Prior to the the current war, it is estimated that Russia spent over a billion dollars a year to subsidize the civilian economy in occupied Donbas. If allowed to get away with the annexation, that price could easily go an order of magnitude higher.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine make more gains around Lyman while repelling Russian attacks on Bakhmut and north of Donetsk. Russian unleashed a large missile attack on Ukranian cities in southern Ukraine hitting principally civilivan and residential areas.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Continued sporatic Russian artillery fire along the border areas.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukrainian military gained control of Seredne , a village approximately 20 KM northwest of Lyman. Russian artillery supporting Lyman defenders was reported to be more intense than previous days.
Donetsk Oblast ——
More Russian attacks in the Bahkmut to Donetsk line. Supporting Russian artillery fire was reportedly less intense than previous days.
Crimean front ———
Big explosion in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region as Ukraine continues to target logistics and ammo sites.
Ukraine OPSEC leaves a lot of current tactical operations silenced, but OSINT and other analysts indicate that the Kherson offensive is still ongoing, with much of the recent fighting appearing to be Ukraine setting its self up for positions from which to gain the advantage over Russian forces. Russian forces west of the Dnipir River are still assess as being critically short of fuel, ammunition and other supplies, being essentially cut off from the main force.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Explosions were reported in Belgorod, possible due to failed missile launch or air defense launches.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR
OUTLOOK ——
The clock is ticking and Lyman will soon be cut off. At what time will the Russian forces realize they are screwed, break and try to escape to the east? All indicators are that the forces there are not the same highly motivated troops that the Ukrainians were when they held out for months. Russia is sorely been out maneuvered but it seems the generals want those troops to die in place.
The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk & western Luhansk oblasts & may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border & in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
Belarus -
Just coming out that in late July Belarus agreed to send 200 soldiers to Syria to replace the many more Russian troops brought back to Russia to replace losses in Ukraine. Belarus has refused Russian requests to send its troops into Ukraine. While Lukashenko is pro-Russia, most Belarussians are not and some openly support Ukraine.
Europe / NATO General -
The United Nations Security Council will convene on Friday at the request of Russia to discuss damage to two Russian gas pipelines to Europe that has caused gas to spew into the Baltic Sea.
According to a report by German magazine Der Spiegel, the CIA warned Berlin about a potential attack on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “weeks ago.”
Citing “several people familiar with the matter,” the publication reports that a tip from the US spy agency was “received in Berlin during the summer.”
OBSERVATION - Fingers continue to point to Russia as being the culprit. Some say why would Russia injure itself financially to do so, all they had to do is turn off the valves. Actually, if by Russia, it just cranked the economic war against NATO/Europe up a notch, making them live by the sanctions while having a degree of ‘plausible deniability “. If/when the Ukraine war gets settled, Russia can sit back and watch the Euros pour in to have the lines repaired - at no cost to Russia.
However, NATO is close to declaring an Article 5 situation.
Steel production in Europe is literally close to collapsing as the continent deals with major spikes in energy costs thanks to having become overly dependent on Russian gas and oil, which is now is without the major supply lines for NS 1 and 2 being destroyed. Such a collapse will cascade across much of their remaining industrial sectors (cars, planes, appliances, etc.) Such a collapse on top of a recession will send shockwaves around the world.
Israel -
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides said he was pleased to hear Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s speech, backing a two-state solution to the Israeli Palestinian Conflict.
OBSERVATION - This should remove any doubt that biden is pushing a two state solution and is pressuring Israel into it.
Iran -
Protests continue throughout Iran now closing in on two weeks. A general strike now has started in several cities. Internationally, Norway police reported that protesters tried to storm Iran’s embassy in O.slo
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Wednesday said that the death of a young woman in custody had “saddened” everyone in the Islamic Republic, but warned that “chaos” would not be accepted amid spreading violent protests over Mahsa Amini’s death.
OBSERVATION - Raisi trying to sooth the angry masses with this so called admission. So far, regime attempts to quell the protests have not gone well as they have continued to spread.
See Iraq below
Iraq -
The US Consulate in Erbil on Thursday issued a security alert advising its nationals to refrain from traveling to Iraq following heavy Iranian drone and missile operations that killed at least nine people in the Kurdistan Region on Wednesday
IRGC confirmED firing 72 missiles & drones targeting terrorist Kurdish separatist groups based in ‘Kurdistan’ region north of Iraq after multiple ‘warnings’ to KRG authorities to stop hosting these militants accused of instigating riots & killing Iranians
OBSERVATION - Iran trying to blame Kurds for the ongoing protests and violence.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Taliban forces fire shots into the air to disperse a women’s rally supporting protests in Iran over the death of a woman in the custody of morality police. Chanting the “Women, life, freedom.” mantra used in Iran, Afghan women protested outside Iran’s embassy in Kabul
Central / South America General-
Big election in Brazil coming up, will leftists gain more ground in central/south America?
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Armenia plans to increase its Defense Budget by 47% in 2023.
They waking up to the fact that Russia cannot/will not protect them in the future.
Back again. Interesting weekend at a preparedness expo out of state. Lots happened over the weekend
Globalism / Great Reset -
Late last week the Bank of England narrowly adverted a crisis. Now, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are on the verge of collapse. The combined asset base of the two banks is nearly $2 Trillion which is 3x the asset base of Lehman Brothers at the time of its collapse.
OBSERVATION - “Too Big to Fail” now coming into play. US banks are being challenged as well. The failure of these banks would ripple across the globe and help trigger a significant economic disaster.
The Federal Reserve has taken a major step in the direction of facilitating an ESG compliant monetary network The Fed said in a statement Thursday:
“Six of the nation’s largest banks will participate in a pilot climate scenario analysis exercise designed to enhance the ability of supervisors and firms to measure and manage climate-related financial risks. Scenario analysis—in which the resilience of financial institutions is assessed under different hypothetical climate scenarios—is an emerging tool to assess climate-related financial risks, and there will be no capital or supervisory implications from the pilot.”
The banks involved in this pilot program are Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo.
OBSERVATION - Basing this ‘exercise’ on a climate based scenario is just one component of the eventual ESG based credit system the digital currency will be rooted in. How well can the system track climate related transactions. No statement on just at what level will be evaluated - business or all the way down to the private citizen.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill into law Friday that will allow for physicians to be disciplined for “misinformation” and “disinformation” in relation to Covid, sparking a protest at the State Capitol.
OBSERVATION - It is pretty clear which road this is headed down and it won’t end with just the medical commuunity. Criminalization of medical practice by physicians to best inform their patients of their options and rights is a MAJOR sign of a totalitarian govt. Now at the tail end of the wuhan plandemic, the so called contemporary scientific consensus regarding wuhan has shown to be wrong. It has actually been refuted partially and fully.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation this month announced $200 million in new funding — part of an overall $1.27 billion commitment in support of “global health and development projects” that include creating a global digital ID system. Included in the plans are the inclusion of infrastructure tools such as interoperable payment systems, digital ID, data-sharing systems, and civil registry databases.
OBSERVATION - If your are going to control society, you must have the means of identifying and tracking subjects. Such an ID system is the logical conclusion to the ESG and economic controls the GGR wants to impose. More so, is the plan to use biometrics as a key component of the plan.
Wuhan virus -
President Joe Biden personally thanked a Coast Guardsman for saving a 94-year-old woman in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, but the hero expects to be fired within days for rejecting the COVID vaccine.
OBSERVATION - Were I the coastguardman, I’d definitely throw the call back into biden’s face.
NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital in early September published the 30-second ad, which promoted the medical center’s pediatric services for treating the condition.
The hospital pulled the ad amid public outcry following three CHD.TV episodes featuring discussions about how the ad appeared to normalize and trivialize myocarditis in children. CHD.TV is produced by Children’s Health Defense.
OBSERVATION - One more way to deflect from the direct adverse affects of the jab. Another in the news is creation of the ‘Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS)” to account for all the sudden ‘unexplainable’ deaths of otherwise clearly health individuals - who’ve been jabbed.
Economy -
OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) when it meets on Oct. 5, OPEC sources told Reuters on Sunday.
The figure is slightly above estimates for a cut given last week, which ranged between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd.
OPEC+, which combines OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, is meeting in person in Vienna for the first time since March 2020. The output cuts are being considered on the back of a slide in oil prices from multi-year highs reached in March and market volatility. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, first flagged the possibility of cuts to correct the market in August.
OBSERVATION - Enjoy the slightly lower prices, cause they are not going lower any time soon. in fact, they’ve started to rise again.
More harbingers of a recession as layoffs and a decrease in demand are being reported by several large corporations, including Apple, FedEx, Meta, and Nike.
Possibly related, IDK if it Walmart’s attempt to reduce excess inventory I’ve posted here already, however, last week they started setting up the Christmas materials/decorations. Earliest I’ve ever seen.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned, “This is a moment when there should be increased anxiety,” similar to one year before the financial crisis in 2008. At the same time, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch GFSI (Global Financial Stress Index) Market Risk indicator has jumped to its highest level since March 2020.
OBSERVATION - Meanwhile the WH continues to play happy days are here again, hoping to slide thru the midterms without a major economic blow out.
Invasion of Illegals -
In an unbelievable racist statement, during a press conference, Pelosi was asked about Democrats’ refusal to call for tighter border security.
“We have a shortage of workers in our country, and you see in Florida. Some of the farmers and the growers say, why are you shipping these immigrants up north. We need them to pick the crops down here.”
OBSERVATION - Obvious she lives in a palace and the rest of the peons cater to her.
Biden / Harris watch -
Fallout from harris’ hurricane “equity” statement is still reverberating with the WH (and their media mouthpieces) scrambling to walk back her statements.
China -
The Chinese Communist Party has established unofficial police “service stations” in major cities around the world, including in the United States, according to an independent investigation.
OBSERVATION - Calling them ‘police stations ‘ is a bit misleading. The purpose is these ‘stations’ is to facilitate persecution of Chinese who’ve opposed the regime while living overseas. They do this by coercion - threatening the individuals families and relationships still in China if they don’t do what the CCP demands. In many instances is it to return to China and face being jailed for various political crimes. This has been going on for a long time.
More economic woes for China as the yuan, continues a steep and continuing slide against the dollar. The yuan slid 7% from mid-August to last week. Late last week, China’s central bank ordered all state-owned banks to sell dollars in an effort to stop currency investors from shorting the yuan. The yuan’s slide means China must pay more for food, fuel, and manufacturing inputs - coming at a very bad time for China’s economy already suffering from woes created by wuhan shut downs and Evergeen properly melt downs.
OBSERVATION - This is happening at a bad time for Xi who still hasn’t gotten another term as president nailed down.
North/South Korea -
Over the weekend, NK popped off a number of short ranged ballistic missiles, likely in response to US-SK military exercises in the south.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the defeat of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Reports of completely untrained conscripts from the latest ‘mobilization’ on the font lines already. Now the offensive in Kherson looks like it is hitting high gear.
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Bad days continue for putin.
Some guests on heavily-edited Kremlin television programs that aired on October 1 criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex four Ukrainian oblasts before securing their administrative borders or even the frontline, expressing doubts about Russia’s ability ever to occupy the entirety of these territories.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Private Military Company financier Evgeniy Prigozhin have further damaged the Kremlin’s vulnerable narratives during and after the fall of Lyman. Kadyrov published a hyperbolic rant on October 1 in which he accused the Russian military command of failing to promptly respond to the deteriorating situation around Lyman and stated that Russia needs to liberate the annexed four oblasts with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons. Prigozhin reiterated Kadyrov’s critiques of the Russian military leadership.
Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision.
NUKE WATCH -
Still a lot of looking at the tea leaves by many ‘analysts’ on whether or not putin will pull the nuclear trigger. Over all general consensus it that such use is not imminent as the geopolitical conditions are not conducive for such an action - yet. Russia still maintains a full capability to execute an attack(s) on very short notice and with little intelligence warning.
OSIMT sources (Israeli Intelligence firm ImageSat) show the presence of a squadron of Russian nuclear bombers at the Olenya Airbase in the Murmansk region bordering Scandinavia. Imagery revealed that 3 TU-95 heavy bombers and 4 TU-160 strategic bombers had been forward deployed to the region since late August. Some consider this to be ‘unusual’. The base is known to provide storage for tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, including nuclear-capable hypersonic cruise missiles.
RUMINT -
More on putin possibly being forced out of power and replaced.
Logistics - - Russian deputy and retired general Andriy Gurulev reported that 1.5 million sets of military uniforms of the Russian Armed Forces, which were intended for the mobilized, disappeared from warehouses in Zabaikalia in an inexplicable way.
In a related issue, recent mobilized forces were given a long list of items they would have to purchase on their own, with many not having the money to do so.
- A survey of Russian anti-aircraft batteries, using commercial satellite photos, has shown that Russia has been shutting down S300 (surface to air missiles) batteries around Russian cities and moving the missiles and launchers to the Ukrainian border, where the missiles are used to attack surface targets At least 500 - S300 missiles have been used so far against surface targets in Ukraine and there are still an estimate 7,000 - S300 missiles available.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Continued chaos as the manpower sweep to get enough men for the mobilization continues. Many of those ‘mobilized’ have found themselves in thrown up tent cities, lacking heat and sanitation facilities as the fall begins it transition to winter.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud (Bezdorizhzhia). Bezdorizhzhia pretty much directly translates as “roadlessness”
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
More like a weekend round up now that i’m home. And I was right - Lyman fell this weekend and most everything Russian further east is unraveling. But that’s not all folks, things have broken loose in the Kherson front. More to follow.
The defeat of Russian forces in Lyman created another ‘highway to hell’ along the only road out of Lyman to the east (at that time), videos show it lined with destroyed / burned out vehicles of all sorts and bodies of Russian soldiers yet to be policed up.
Russian tactical air support - both fixed and rotary wing - have drastically disappeared over the weekend. Some attribute this to the poor weather, while others state that supply issues are keeping more aircraft grounded. I wonder if the ‘supply’ issues aren’t a cover for the pilots not wanting to be shot out of the sky as airspace over the areas where the Ukraine offensive are occurring have become very lethal to them.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Defense Secretary Gen. Lloyd Austin, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have all gently pushed back against the idea that Ukraine could be granted fast-track accession to the transatlantic alliance.
In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of four Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday announced that Kyiv was applying for “accelerated accession to NATO.”
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Continued sporatic Russian artillery fire along the border areas.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
The Ukrainian Army broke though Russian lines east of Kupyansk and are heading toward Svatove. Another pincer is moving north-east from the Lyman area.
Seems it’s only a question of time before the Russian forces in Borova will get encircled.
The breakthrough at Lyman over the weekend has exposed the soft underbelly of more of the Russian rear area. Ukrainian forces are continuing to exploit.
The following link is to a map depicting the tactical situation as of yesterday. Note that this morning Ukraine is furter east knocking on the door to Kreminna.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeFTZwcXwAE_04_?format=jpg&name=900x900
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults around Bakhmut, Vyimka, and Avdiivka. The doggedness of the Russian attacks in this region continue to cause one to scratch their head. Sportatic Russian artillery across the whole LOC, though with higher concentrations around Bakhmut and associated areas.
Crimean front ———
Several Russian Telegram channels claim that the Ukrainian forces broke through in the northeast of Russia’s Kherson pocket-to-be yesterday and today, and that Russian defenses rolled back to Dudchany - if true it’s a 20km deep breakthrough.
The most cautious assessment of the current position: UA forces have liberated Zolota Balka, Khreshchenivka and Shevchenkivka; Novooleksandrivka, Havrylivka and Dudchany are contested if not already UA-controlled.
Ukraine continues to strike command posts, logistical bases and troop concentrations across kherson oblast.
The following link is to a map I found, current as of yesterday, of the tactical situation around Kherson.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeFqQN4WAAAyWhp?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Russia stands to lose a lot more terrain in the east with the fall of Lyman and the collapse of Russian defenses in general. Ukraine is wisely pressing the attack before the mud gets too bad and operations have to slow down until it freezes. However, such a pause won’t help Russia as Ukraine has all the key resupply routes into the eastern Donbas region under its guns now.
The place I’m watching this week is the potential break out by Ukrainian forces in the Kherson fight. Pushing from the north to the south (roughly), fleeing Russian troops would be forced to Kherson city - causing chaos in the rear areas of the rest of the Russian defenses. They cannot flee east because of the Dnipir River and the only crossing at Kherson are limited ferry barges. Upwards of 10,000 Russian forces are believed to be essentially trapped west of the Dnipir River. These are ‘better’ quality forces but are lacking fuel, ammunition and reinforcements while Ukraine begins its attempt to duplicate its success in the east by out maneuvering the Russian forces rather than attempting frontal attacks.
Poland -
Poland has completed the construction of a protective barrier on the border with Belarus. Under reported is that muslims and other groups are still attempting to sneak into Poland via Belarus.
Lithuania expels Russia’s chargé d’affaires.
Authorities in Denmark said Sunday that the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipelines have also stopped leaking, a day after officials said that the ruptured Nord Stream 2 pipelines also appeared to stop leaking. Most likely because the remaining gas in the pipeline finally drained out. Finger pointing continues over who actually blew the pipelines up. Investigations still haven’t found a smoking gun tracing back to the culprit.
Germany is warning that they may run out of natural gas this winter.
The heads of nine European NATO members on Sunday issued a joint statement backing a path to membership for Ukraine in the U.S.-led security alliance, and calling on all 30 NATO nations to ramp up military aid for Kyiv. The leaders of Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia published a statement on their websites Sunday saying: “We support Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion, demand (that Russia) immediately withdraw from all the occupied territories and encourage all allies to substantially increase their military aid to Ukraine.” The US is not on board.
Israel -
Israel gave its preliminary nod on Sunday to a draft U.S.-brokered deal demarcating a maritime border with Lebanon that may lead to profit-sharing in a disputed Mediterranean gas prospect.
OBSERVATION - This agreement also attempts to cut Hezbollah out of the arrangement monetarily as well as politically.
Iran -
The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Khamenei has not addressed the protests nor made a public appearance since September 21, possibly due to his reportedly worsening health. An unidentified Iranian official told Reuters that intra-regime disagreements over supreme leader succession and protest management are dividing the regime elite. This division suggests that Khamenei is not playing his usual role of cohering the regime during a crisis.
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders struck a more conciliatory tone on October 2 as university students have adopted an increasingly prominent role in the protest movement. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said, “we consider [the protesting youth] our friends, and we will not allow the enemy to attack you.”
Violence increased between Hezbollah militias that came to Iran to support the regime and protestors. Protestors are fighting back.
OBSERVATION - The absence of Khamenei for this extended period of time in the face of nation wide protests does not bode well for the regime. This has given the protest time to get its second wind and now is entrenched oil the country’s universities. Attempts by ‘outsiders’ (Hezebollah) to put it down is only enhancing it.
BREAKING - Khamenei has released audio of an address today, speaking on the riots and other subjects. Gist of the the comments is that the riots were not the ‘right reaction’ and the US was to blame.
The Iranian regime is expecting $7 billion in funds that were frozen because of U.S. sanctions to be released, after it granted a one-week furlough to an imprisoned American citizen and allowed his father, also a U.S. citizen, to leave the country. This money is believed to be currently frozen in S Korean bank accounts.
OBSERVATION - Follow the money. This is just an excuse to have the money freed up.
Lebanon -
See Israel above
The Lebanese parliament fails to elect a president - expect more political instability .
Central / South America General-
“Almost all votes have been counted in Brazil (96.93%) and neither candidate will be able to hit the 50% mark needed to win in the first round. It means there will be a run-off election on 30 October between former President Lula and incumbent President Bolsonaro” -BBC
OBSERVATION - Under most of the radar has been the electoral success of the left in Central and South America. Largely ‘moderate’ at the moment, if they got together they could pose a regional challenge to the US. However, the economic crises bought on by the wuhan shutdown, has the left forced to bring their attention inward for now. The economic issues are part of what is moving the electorate to the left. Question is will Bolsonario be able to reverse the trend and win the runoff.
Misc of Note -
Hurricane Ian damage to Florida and the Southeast is still being assessed. Democrats are trying to make political hay out of it, but is it backfiring. Consequences will ripple across the national economy during the rebuild effort.