Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Heads up - Ill be on the road a lot the second half of the week. No posts Wed - Fri.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

As you read the other categories below, keep this in mind - most of them have a link up here. Then globalist takeover agenda is nothing if not comprehensive. They’re coming at us from every possible angle, and whether we’re talking about biosecurity, finance, housing, health care, energy, transportation or food, all the changes we’re now seeing have one goal, and that is to force compliance with the globalists’ agenda.

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Wuhan virus -

biden’s COVID-19 coordinator, Dr. Ashish Jha, appeared on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, July 17, to voice his support for Los Angeles County bringing back its universal mask mandate on July 29. White House COVID czar Ashish Jha advocates for continuing to wear masks, claiming “It really will make a difference.”

OBSERVATION - Still seeing mind- numbed sheeple wearing masks that do virtually nothing to protect them from wuhan. Just trying to lay the foundation for another attempt to shut the country down prior to the midterms IMHO
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Economy -

As I type, no word if the Rail road union is going to drop the hammer and execute the national strike today

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Invasion of Illegals -

The Mayor of Washington DC, Muriel Bowsersaid on Sunday that the federal government should work to prevent illegal immigrants from being “tricked” into getting on buses headed towards the Nation’s Capitol.
“The Washington Post reported last week that homeless shelters in DC were filling up and groups are getting overwhelmed by these buses that the governors of Texas and Arizona are sending here full of migrants. How significant is this influx? How many people?”
Mayor Bowser responded: “This is a very significant issue. We have for sure called on the federal government to work across state lines to prevent people from really being tricked into getting on buses.”
Between Texas and Arizona, 79 buses transporting more than 2,000 illegal immigrants have arrived in Washington D.C. as of mid-May, according to New York Post.
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Biden / Harris watch -

The push continues from some democrat sectors to get biden out of the mix for 2024. The latest is Robert Reich in an article in the Guardian. The theme of the article is that Biden will be too old to run for office again in 2024 and ought to make his intentions clear after the midterm elections. biden’s mental faculties are also being questioned by Daniel Henninger In his Wall Street Journal column . “Since Inauguration Day, every public statement he has made to the American people, large or small, has been written by someone else for him to read by rote from a teleprompter. His off-the-cuff followups are painful. Mr. Biden’s condition didn’t begin on Inauguration Day. Those around him knew there was a problem, but the needs of the party prevailed. “
OBSERVATION - Watch the circus.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa members gathered for a direct action to shut down the Honky Tonk bar in Salem, Oregon, on Saturday afternoon, suffered a humiliating defeat after the group was confronted by a group of women and bikers protecting a Salem bar hosting a family barbecue event.
Other Antifa elements were on social media warning their colleagues not to get the biker culture mad at them. for it will not end well (and hasn’t in the past when Antifa has confronted bikers)

OBSERVATION - less than a dozen Antifa types showed up and faces off against a “B” grade biker group. They were run off by the biker chicks. There is a lack of ‘motivation’ on Antifa’s side to support callouts. There is also fear of bikers in general.

Starbucks is announcing the start of closures of stores in major urban areas. According to CEO of Starbucks - “One of the primary concerns that our retail partners have is their own personal safety. And then we heard the stories that go along with it about what happens in our bathrooms. The issue of mental illness, the issue of homelessness and the issues of crime.
Starbucks is a window into America, we have stores in every community and we are facing things in which the stores were not built for. And so, we’re listening to our people and closing stores, and this is just the beginning. There are gonna be many more.”

OBSERVATION - Besides over priced coffee, the criminal aspect is hitting the bottom line. it is unlikely that his will change the ‘woke’ policies, just cut losses.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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The deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Sunday that “clowns, who pop up there with some statements now and then, are trying to threaten us” with attacks on Crimea. Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014.
“Should anything of the kind happen, they will be faced with a doomsday, very quick and tough, immediately,” Medvedev, who served as president 2008-2012, told state-run Tass. “There will be no avoiding it.”

RUMINT -
Putin may have ordered Russian forces to seize Kharkiv City and the rest of unoccupied Kharkiv Oblast despite the extreme improbability of success.

Intelligence RUMINT OUT there point to an estimate month where Russia will be facing devastating equipment shortages. ”August will be really bad. We will not see new equipment, and there will be nothing and nothing to repair the old one. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine go forward at this moment, then we will have nothing to stop them, ”says another Russian staff officer.

”There is a lot of equipment at the storage bases, but it is old and, as I understand it, not in the best condition. What comes to us, we are already reassembling here. Out of three or four tanks, one is obtained in a complete set. Special trouble with sights and communications. After depreservation, all this must be checked and installed, and we are sent cars that simply do not have enough components. Many tanks do not have an automatic loading system, some have a jammed turret, it simply does not rotate. With a running problem, ”explains the Russian commander of a tank unit.

OBSERVATION ON THIS RUMINT - The sorry state of Russian ‘war stocks’ in storage areas has already been reported on months ago. This indicates things are getting far worse. However, this has been out there and many expected quicker evidence of impact to operations. It is clear Russia is pulling out old T62s, BMP1 and MTLB,s out of storage.

Logistics -
- According to sources in the Russian army, difficulties have already begun with barrels for self-propelled guns, howitzers and heavy guns. Barrels need to be changed regularly, or they will fail. Russia has few replacements available.
- After the successful destruction of 11 (some count as high as 35) Russian ammunition depots by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reports coming out that Russian forces are experiencing an acute shortage of ammunition for artillery, tanks and MLRS. This reportedly has forced Russia to stage even farther from the front, effectively doubling the required trucks to get the ammo forward. Trucks they do not have. ”It will take several weeks to compensate for this shortage. And it still needs to be understood that if the shells are again shove just where, then they will again be launched into the wind, ”says the Russian staff officer.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia has relied heavily on mercenaries like the Wagner Group to lead the fight in the east. Now heavily depleted they are working to get criminals out of prison to fight for them.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
As Russia’s military pressed its efforts to expand into Ukraine’s east, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the head of the country’s security service and its prosecutor general on Sunday, citing hundreds of criminal proceedings into treason and collaboration by people within their departments.
“In particular, more than 60 employees of the prosecutor’s office and the SBU have remained in the occupied territory and work against our state,” Zelenskyy said. He also dismissed Ivan Bakanov, a childhood friend and former business partner who headed Ukraine’s security service, the SBU. Bakanov had come under growing criticism recently over security breaches.

The reported Russian operational ‘pause’ appears to be slowly ending. So far Russian ground assaults have been limited and largely unsuccessful. More likely probing or recon in force. Intensity of artillery and ground attacks are still relatively low compared to pre-pause levels.

Link to map below produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure.

Kharkiv Oblast Police chief reported that Russian forces launched missiles on the region overnight and shelled the villages of Chuhuiv and Korobochkino a day prior.

Artillery support to Russian forces trying to probe south out of Izyum, repulsed by Ukraine.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian probing attacks along the northern margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient .

Ukrainian military repelled Russian assault attempts near Verkhniokamyanske, Spirne and Serebrianka, Russian units attempted to assault Novoluhanske, Semyhirya and Vuhlehirsk power plant, south of Bakhmut.

Russian missile strikes hit civilian target in Toretsk, Zalizne, Kostiantynivka and Soledar. A residential building, a school, a kindergarten, and a medical college were damaged.

Russian armed forces have deployed missile launchers and artillery at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The EU considers new sanctions on Russia over its use of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to shell Ukraine

Crimea Front ———
Russian forces systematically shelled civilian and military infrastructure along the Southern frontline and conducted artillery strikes in Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts

Mykolaiv got hit by about 10 missiles overnight. Russian army launched 4 missiles at Odesa region: one shot down, 2 hit a military object and another a bridge over Dniester Lyman. Some of these missiles appear to be S300 air defense missiles modified for ground attack mode.

Serhii Bratchuk, a spokesman for Odesa Oblast’s military administration, reportedly citing Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said Russia has moved ships from Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk, Russia. This move is the clearest indication things are not going well for Russia in the south. If Ukraine gets ammo that can reach 300 km, no Russian depot within held/controlled territory will be safe. This includes Sebastopol, well within Crimea.

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Western / Central Ukraine ——
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory - ——
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance ——
Russian-backed occupation authorities are possibly propagandizing the threat of Ukrainian partisans to justify increased societal control measures. Ukrainian Mayor of Enerhodar Dmytro Orlov stated on July 17 that Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast are manufacturing “non-existent partisans” as part of an effort to claim that Russian forces are successfully mitigating the threat of Ukrainian partisan activity.

Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast continue to face personnel shortages and the unwillingness of local Ukrainians to collaborate with occupation governments.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
An explosion reportedly in Nova Khakovka, Kherson Oblast.
Some observers suggest that as many as 32 Russian dumps have been hit in the past couple of weeks.

OUTLOOK ——
I expect Russia to ramp up its attacks in the east. I don’t see them making much progress given that any personnel replacements are likely poorly trained and ill prepared for combat. Ukraine has regained the advantage with established defenses. Also monitoring to see just how much damage Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammo dumps has had. I really don’t expect Russia to try to attack on all fronts. They just don’t have the men or material. They will be hard pressed to maintain the offensive in the east while syphoning off enough forces to mount a defense in the west.

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Belarus -

Observers in Belarus noted 15+ heavy RU transport flights arriving in Minsk over the last week.

OBSERVATION - Could be a bunch of things such as flying in replacement cannon fodder. But unusual levels of activity

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Europe / NATO General -
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Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters
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Iran -

Iran is technically capable of producing a nuclear bomb but no political decision on such an option has been made.

OBSERVATION - Wording here. They have worked with N Korea with their program and likely have help from Pakistani experts. Enriching uranium to 90% is just the step and will to do so away. But to make a bomb is one thing. To make it in a deliverable manner is another. Iran has developed pretty fair copy cat technology and may have their hands on plan fro be able to fabricate a deliverable bomb - on its long range missiles. Israel may have a say in that however.
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Syria -

Turkish drone hit a military post of Pro-Assad forces forces in Tel_Rifaat town, north of Aleppo.
Syrian Government forces reinforcements reached Ain Issa and Kobanî, on the western end of the Turkish ‘buffer zone’ in N. Syria. A large amount of Syrian army reinforcements including heavy vehicles have also been spotted heading towards the surroundings of Manbij city in eastern Aleppo countryside.

OBSERVATION - Potential clashes with Turkish forces if Turkey tries to expand the ‘buffer’ or make other moves
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I may be able to get a post in tomorrow, then I’ll be in radio silence until Friday at the earliest.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Biden is considering declaring a national climate emergency as soon as this week, the Washington Post newspaper said on Tuesday, citing sources. The move came after two U.S. Senate Democrats urged Biden to declare a climate emergency and use the Defense Production Act to ramp up production of a wide range of renewable energy products and systems, including solar panels.

OBSERVATION - After the wuhan shutdowns were established, many noted that the next big agenda that the sheeple have been properly conditioned would be the declaration of a climate ‘emergency’ which would morph into climate lockdowns. Is biden that cravenly deliberate to go that far? In the before times it would be hard to believe that. Today the fact that it is a good possibility is scary.

Our next slogan will be “ 15 days to slow the sun. “

Biden Climate Czar John Kerry: “We’re behind” and need to “accelerate the transition” to green energy.

OBSERVATION - Just like we need to accelerate the car as we go off the cliff sez the guy who’s homes use enough energy to power small towns.

Mass demonstrations underway against the government of Panama over high inflation which increased the cost of food, fuel, and basic services.

OBSERVATION - Some thinking that Panama is on the verge of collapsing, right along with Sri Lanka due to GGR inspired govt policies.

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Wuhan virus -

The protection afforded by surviving COVID-19 was strong against the latest virus subvariants, including the one currently dominant in the United States, scientists in Qatar found. People who were infected with Omicron, a variant of SARS-CoV-2, had 76.1 percent protection against symptomatic reinfection from BA.4 and BA.5 and 80 percent shielding from any reinfection, regardless of symptoms, according to the preprint study. The group has been studying natural immunity for years and recently discovered that the protection from prior infection against severe disease showed no signs of waning, regardless of what strain infected the person.

OBSERVATIONS - Branch covidians have long sought to down play the effectiveness of natural immunity - contrary to established science - in favor of the jabs.

San Diego Unified, California’s second largest school district, is against masking children.

OBSERVATION - Here we go again.

New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has called for a reduction in the seven-day isolation period adding that the winter influenza virus currently posed a bigger issue than COVID-19.
“In many cases at the moment, the current strand of influenza is more severe than the current strands of COVID,” the premier told 2GB radio.
He later added that the state was currently experiencing “one of the worst flu seasons we’ve ever had” and urged people to get a flu shot.

OBSERVATION - Common sense indicates that wuhan has long been less severe that the flu and in many cases flu has been misapplied as wuhan.
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Economy -

China has dumped over $100 Billion Of US Treasuries in the last 6 months. Treasuries are used to fund the US debt and the jettison by China reflects both Chinese economic problems as well as a strike against the US economy making it more costly to sustain deficits spending.

Biden’s administration announced its 17th Operation Fly Formula mission on Monday as marketing data shows the baby formula shortage is getting worse.
The administration announced two flights to transport Nestlé Health Science amino acid-based formula from Switzerland to John F. Kennedy Airport in New York on July 21 and 22.
The delivery will include the equivalent of 802,446 8-ounce bottles of formula, which will be distributed primarily to hospitals and home health care providers. Formula availability dropped to its lowest level so far this year, with about 30% of products out of stock for the week ended July 3, according to the market-research firm IRI. That translates into a 70% stock rate for that week, which is down from the 77% stock rate for the preceding week.
By July 24, Operation Fly Formula will have transported more than 61 million 8-ounce bottle equivalents to the U.S., the administration noted. U.S. consumers usually buy enough powdered formula to make about 65 million 8-ounce bottles a week.
‘We are months — months — away from an end to these shortages,’ a source on a recent FDA call about the issue told Politico last week.

OBSERVATION - This ‘program’ has only supplied the needs of only ONE WEEKs worth of needs. The failure to get things going is no longer due to safety concerns (though that is the cover excuse) but deliberate.

The White House on Monday struggled when asked if Americans should prepare for a recession, trying to avoid a definitive answer. White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein pointed out that the National Bureau of Economic Research typically weighed unemployment numbers and consumer spending when considering whether to declare that a recession was underway.

OBSERVATION - Remember, this administration unequivocally stated inflation peaked in December and this time last year said it was “transitory”

Builder sentiment dropped 12 points to 55, according to a monthly survey from the National Association of Home Builders. That marks the largest single-month drop in the survey’s 37-year history with the exception of April 2020. Sentiment about current sales conditions saw the largest drop, while buyer traffic fell firmly into negative territory. Any rating above 50 on the index is still considered positive, but sentiment has now fallen 24 points since March, when mortgage rates began moving higher.
National Association of Home Builders CEO Jerry Howard fears that things will continue to get worse in the months ahead, and he is warning that “we’re going to go into a recession” unless something dramatic happens…
“For the last seven straight months it has been going down and this is a huge drop – and I think all it says is, ‘Somebody do something or we’re going to go into a recession,’” Howard said.

OBSERVATION - Housing market is one of those bell weather economic indicators. The softening of the market as indicated by the numbers does to bode well, indicating, along with other economic markers, the increasing probability of a recession in the near future.

Rumors are that the Fed is talking itself out of a 1% increase in the prime rate - solidifying its position on a 0.75% increase instead.
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Invasion of Illegals -

In the face of record illegal entry to the US, Biden has remarkably reduced the number of prosecutions for that crime.
The Washington Free Beacon reported Monday that they obtained a memo from the Department of Homeland Security detailing how migrant prosecutions dropped by almost 80 percent in 2021. That year only 2,896 border crossers were apprehended and transferred to U.S. Marshall custody compared to 12,213 who were transferred in 2020.

OBSERVATION - I’ll say it once again, biden has no interest in controlling the border - this is deliberate.
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Biden / Harris watch -

See Saudi Arabia

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CW2/Domestic violence -

FOLLOW UP After Antifa members attempted shut down the Honky Tonk bar in Salem, Oregon, on Saturday afternoon, and were themselves shut down, they try to double down. Antifa are calling for reinforcements to now go to Gladstone, Ore. where they’re planning another attack. Various Oregon-based motorcycle clubs are now teaming up against the group.
“The confrontation appears to have now ignited a feud between Antifa and members of various Oregon motorcycle clubs,” The Post Millenial reported.

OBSERVATION - Antifa poked the wrong bear on this one and many other Antifa are tying to stop the impending trainwreck. Bikes have clashed with Antifa in the past - never to Antifa’s advantage.

MSNBC contributor Malcolm Nance defined Republicans as an “insurgency,” comparing them to multiple terror organizations and suggesting they’d have to be fought to prevent them from “killing” their neighbors.
Nance’s explicit calls for a war against Republicans came during a recent episode of the MSNBC talk show “Zerlina,” in which he was promoting his book, “They Want to Kill Americans: The Militias, Terrorists, and Deranged Ideology of the Trump Insurgency.”

OBSERVATION - I’ve been noting that talking heads / influencers on the left have been increasing the overt calls for a physical civil war against conservatives/libertarians. Polls are also showing an increased opinion on both sides of the political spectrum that a national split is becoming inevitable.
The BIG question is what will be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back?

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China -

China’s state-run Global Times quickly complained that “The figure of $108 million is an unreasonably high price for just spare parts and intangible technical assistance, and it is obvious that the US arms firms are again leeching on Taiwan for its money.” And to be expected, Beijing is demanding that the United States immediately cancel the new $108 million deal.

China announces a large-scale five-day military exercise across an expansive area of the South China Sea covering parts of both the Spratly and Paracel Islands.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Japan -

Japan will not set a ceiling on defense spending in next year’s budget, the Nikkei newspaper has reported. In not setting a spending limit, Tokyo will ensure that defense expenditures are available to purchase longer-range missiles and for cyber security research, the newspaper said.
The move on defense spending would allow the government to increase defense spending to 2 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) within five years. Until this year, defense spending has been capped at roughly 1 percent of GDP.

OBSERVATION - Chinese regional aggression and threats, along with soft support from the current US regime has awakened Japan to the need to be ready to defend itself. And that they only have a short window to make those preparations.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to travel to Iran on Tuesday to shore up support in meetings with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkeish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This will be his first trip out of country since the start of the war with Ukraine.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered generals to prioritise destroying Ukraine’s long-range missile and artillery weapons after Western-supplied weapons were used to strike Russian supply lines…
There are concerns in Moscow that Ukraine’s longer-range missiles could be used to target Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
Crimea is of particular strategic importance to Russia as it includes the headquarters of its Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol. Another prized target would be the 18km (11-mile) bridge that links the Black Sea peninsula with mainland Russia.

RUMINT -
Russia has inserted covert strike teams operating inside of Ukraine to find and neutralize HIMARS and other long range systems.

Economic Impact -
- Russia faces a “major challenge” from sanctions denying access to foreign technology, President Vladimir Putin said Monday. But Putin told his Council for Strategic Development that his country will not “lose heart” or see decades of progress reversed. Putin called for expansion of the technological capacities, research and innovation of Russian companies.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Activity along the front has been described as “slow” by some OSINT commentators. Russian artillery levels and ground attacks continue to be limited both in extent and effectiveness. The most significant development is the admission by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu admitting that HIMARS has had an significant impact on Russian operations.

Ukraine’s attack on the Antonivsky bridge indicates the battle field is being shaped for further operations. See OUTLOOK below for more discussion.

Link to map below produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure. Strikes hit Ruski Tyshky, Cherkaski Tyshky, Pytomnyk, Borschova, Ruska Lozova, and Chuhuiv.

Russian artillery also targeted Ukraninan positions to the west and south of the Izyum salient.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian probing attacks along the northern margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient along with artillery strikes along most of the LOC. Russian forces launched an unsuccessful attack towards Bakhmut. .

Crimea Front ———
Russian army shelled areas along contact line. Explosions in Odesa from a large missile attack. At least five explosions were reported.

Explosions noted in Kherson - suspected logistics targets.

Damage caused to Antonivsky bridge over Dnipro near Kherson as result of Ukranian missile strike. The Antonivskyy (RU: Antonovskiy) spans the Dnipro river and is the shortest route for Russian reinforcements to reach the city from Crimea.

Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Ukrainian forces set up a pontoon bridge in preparation for a possible offensive across the Inhulets River near Arhanhelske, Kherson Oblast, in addition to Ukrainian forces moving forces and equipment near the contact line in the Mykolaiv-Kryvyi Rih font.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory - ——
Briansk governor says Lomakovka village near border of Ukraine came under shelling. He also said a road was damaged near Novye Yurkovichi village as result of shelling

Partisan Resistance ——
According to Ukraine’s Center for National Resistance, Russian forces seized 20 grain elevators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Ukraine’s success has gotten the attention of the Kremlin.

OUTLOOK ——
Monitoring Russian build up to the resumption of a larger offensive towards the west into the Donbas. With this is just how much artillery has been degraded by both wear and tear as well as lack of ammo.

Ukraine is clearly making preparations for an offensive into Kherson Oblast. Having established multiple river crossings of the Inhulets River, north of Kherson and stone positions in Mykolaiv opposite of Kherson places the Russian forces with their backs against the Dniper River. Ukranian pressure on Russian defenses helped divert forces from the east. Russian forces in the Kherson are not assessed by many OSINT analysts as being very combat ready, but thrown there as an economy of force effort.

Kherson is essential to protect Russian lines of supply from Crimea. Ukrainan push into the Oblast would also bring Russian logistic dumps and command posts in Crimea under threat of HIMARS (and if the US supplies longer ranges missiles for the system. Former Russian president Medvedev is on line stating that any attempt to liberate or even attack Crimea could result in a nuclear response by Russia.

Timing is still the question. If the analysis of some that Russian will each critical logistical crisis some time this August, the that would be a logical time. It would also permit action prior to the fall weather changes and winter.

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Europe / NATO General -
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Sweden and Finland on Monday that Ankara may still “freeze” their NATO membership they fall short of last month’s agreement, in which the two Nordic countries promised to take specific steps to overcome Turkey’s objections.

OBSERVATION - Erdogan continues his ‘bad boy’ front, knowing that NATO needs his help to keep the access to the Black Sea under control. He is going to continue to leverage that position for all its worth.
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Pakistan -

The Pakistani Taliban have made clear their intention to overthrow the government in Islamabad and create and substitute – an Islamic state. They are receiving tacit support from their Afghan brothers. Making matters worse for Pakistan is the fact that the post wuhan world has hit them hard economically.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on both Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Both of those supplies have now been interrupted. Serious hunger is now a genuine threat.
The rise in oil prices has also hit Pakistan hard. Between 2020 and 2021 the cost of oil imports to Pakistan rose by 85%. As of the end of June 2022, Pakistan’s trade deficit stood at $50 billion. That was an over 50% increase over the year before. The government in Islamabad was forced to issue an order forbidding the import of over 800 luxury items to keep the deficit from going even higher.

Inflation in June rose to 20%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut off subsidies. The prices of both oil and gas have skyrocketed. The value of the Pakistani rupee has collapsed. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have been cut in half.

Protests against the high prices and other shortages are starting to grow - threatening to collapse the current govt.

OBSERVATION - Observers and commentators are raising concerns that some of Pakistans 200 nuclear weapons could fall into the hand of Taliban terrorists. A desperate nuclear power could do the unthinkable and launch an attack on India to divert attention and maintain control and power.
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Saudi Arabia -

In an interview with CNBC ahead of Biden’s arrival in Saudi Arabia, Al-Faisal said, “President Biden, in my view, he’s coming as a much diminished president than when he was first elected.” “As an example, on energy issues, he came in with a policy to stop completely fossil fuel usage not only in the United States, but worldwide,” Al-Faisal said. “And now he is finding himself having to rely on fossil fuels as a means of meeting the energy shortage that has come about, not only because of the Ukraine war, but also because of U.S. policy itself that shut down pipelines and stopped issuing of, you know, discovery of oil on U.S. soil.”

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Syria -

OBSERVATION - Potential Syrian clashes with Turkish forces if Turkey tries to expand the ‘buffer’ or make other moves
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

See Pakistan
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Turkey -

Hosting a meeting with the leaders of Russia and Iran. Some of the agenda appears to be ongoing military actions in Syria.

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Off the rest of the day celebrating number 44 with the bride

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Globalism / Great Reset -

At a congressional hearing Trans(potation) Secy Buttigieg stated “The more pain we are all experiencing from the high price of gas, the more benefit there is for those who can access electric vehicles”

Biden will deliver a speech on climate change this afternoon, although he is widely expected to hold off on declaring a climate emergency. If declared, it is anticipated that biden would use it to ban crude oil exports, redirect federal funding towards renewable energy, phase out existing oil and gas leases, and cut back on new ones. The White House may also look at exercising power at the Transportation Department to limit automobile emissions.

OBSERVATION - Straight up - utilizing climate emergencies to change the global order is a stated goal of the GGR. Not the least to say there will be severe impacts to the US and global economies.
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Wuhan virus -

More ‘Freedom of Information’ requests are resulting in increased documentation that the jab directly caused abnormalities of the developing foetus and falsely downgraded the actual risk of Covid-19 vaccination during pregnancy by suppressing documented findings of the clinical data.

OBSERVATION - These claims were initially documented a couple years ago, but this is just more data to support the claims of fraud by Pfizer, et al.
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Economy -

Last Wednesday, hundreds of truckers protested at the Los Angeles-Long Beach port, some trucks slowed down traffic on the 110 while others took part by refusing to take on loads. Their message - “No to AB5.”
Bloomberg notes that “more than 70% of truckers serving some of the country’s largest ports — including Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland — are owner-operators” and that “the law comes into effect for truckers in the busiest months of the year as retailers stock up on back-to-school and holiday goods.”

OBSERVATION - AB5 was pure political bruit strength to force independent truckers to become unionized. International Brotherhood of Teamsters, put its support squarely behind the bill. And the rest of the left, collapse of the supply chain doesn’t bother them at all, as long as they can rule over the ashes.

Mortgage applications decreased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 15, 2022.
The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 80 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 16 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

OBSERVATION - We’ve seen the housing market peak and now moving towards a down turn. Just how bad it will be is still debated by the experts, but the overall trend is not looking good.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen failed to reach an agreement among G20 countries to cap Russian oil prices at $50/barrel. Yellen hoped the measure would reduce Russian oil sales revenue and help lower oil prices.

OBSERVATION - This was about as brain dead of a move as emptying out our strategic reserves. Russia has already been smart in how they’ve bypassed sanctions so far and this could be bypasses just as easily.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., and Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, demanded Thursday that Gen. Mark Milley finally respond to allegations that he usurped presidential power over the military while he was President Donald Trump’s principal military adviser. Bob Woodward and Robert Costa raised the allegations in their 2021 book “Peril,” and according to the lawmakers, Milley still has not confirmed nor denied them.
“According to Bob Woodward’s book ‘Peril,’ Gen. Mark Milley directed senior military officers not to follow the president’s orders unless General Milley approved them first,” Banks said in a speech on the House floor on Thursday.

OBSERVATION - This indicates that the corruption of the star children at the Pentagon is complete. Missing is that there wasn’t a single general that had the guts to confront Milley with this unconstitutional order. The pampered princes there were happy to go with the order. Should the country go sideways, it is almost a certainty that the military leadership (and I’m not sure how fa down the officer corps this corruption goes) will hit the rank and file soldiers and whether or not they will follow the orders of corrupted leaders. As a veteran, this situation breaks my heart.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

A federal court has granted a request by Missouri and Louisiana officials to obtain information and documents from top-ranking officials in the Biden administration over its alleged collusion with social media giants in an effort to censor and suppress free speech.
Eric Schmitt, Missouri’s Republican attorney general, announced on social media on July 13 that Terry Doughty, a judge in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana, had ruled in favor of the request for the discovery process.
The ruling paves the way for the attorneys general to collect documents from top-ranking Biden administration officials and social media giants.
The ruling comes after the attorneys general of Louisiana and Missouri filed a lawsuit in May alleging that the Biden administration “colluded with and/or coerced social media companies to suppress disfavored speakers, viewpoints, and content on social media platforms by labeling the content ‘disinformation,’ ‘misinformation,’ and ‘malinformation.’”
The attorneys general named social media giants such as Meta, Twitter, and YouTube in a press release announcing the lawsuit in May.
They also claimed that President Joe Biden himself, along with other top-ranking government officials, had worked with the platforms to censor and suppress free speech, including “truthful information” pertaining to the origins of COVID-19, the effectiveness of masks, election integrity, and the security of voting by mail, as well as the ongoing Hunter Biden laptop scandal.

OBSERVATION - Totalitarism for the biden regime took a hit on this one. Like a leaky faucet bad news continues to come out. However, those of us with discernment know this collusion is a reality, this lawsuit puts the administration in a vice on the issue.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Constitutional law expert Alan Dershowitz told Newsmax on Tuesday that the Jan. 6 committee ‘’does not want the public to hear the other side’’ of the narrative it is presenting in prime time.
‘’That’s why it didn’t permit any cross-examination, any confrontation, any due process, anything resembling fairness,’’ Dershowitz said on ‘’The Record With Greta Van Susteren.’’
‘’I just don’t remember any committee ever like this, and I’ve been watching committees now for 65 years. I’ve never seen anything like, it and I’m on their side generally.’’

OBSERVATION - For those old goats out there like me, these kangroo courts were plentiful in the communist bloc, essentially guilty until unable to be proven innocent. I noted in a previous post the gave concern that the biden regime will utilize this committee report to charge Trump of a crime(s) and even to go as far as having him be arrested. That would make the charges look political . That in itself could trigger a kinetic response from the right and give the marxists a reason to declare martial law prior to the midterms.

This may not play out for the democrats as they may want though. Reports are out that Garland reminded Department of Justice personnel to not use the “timing of public statements… investigative steps, criminal charges, or any other action… for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party.” Garland also cited a 2020 memo from former AG Bill Barr that requires approval from the Attorney General’s office to begin criminal or counterintelligence investigations into political candidates, citing “election year sensitivities”.

OBSERVATION - This generally means any prosecutions would not be announced against republicans until after the midterms.

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

American P-8 surveillance planes will fly over Bulgarian Black Sea territorial waters as part of new Bulgaria-based “Breeze” exercise, instead of the canceled Ukraine-based Sea Breeze exercise
_________________________________

China -

China will take “resolute and strong measures” should the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi proceed with reported plans to visit Taiwan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday. A visit by Pelosi would “severely undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, gravely impact the foundation of China-U.S. relations and send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijiang said at a daily briefing.

The Chinese National Congress is in November of this year, where Xi is widely expected to gain approval for a third term, which would also solidify him as president for life. Xi likely sees a window on Taiwan closing as the U.S. improves coordination with Quad countries India, Australia, and Japan, and NATO builds military cooperation ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The stronger these ties become, the more difficult it will be for China to win a forced reunification with Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - These actions may cause China to push for action against Taiwan sooner rather than later.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

SK mends fences with Japan below
__________________________________

Japan -

South Korean and Japanese officials met today to ease decades-old injuries, including the 1910-1945 Japanese occupation of Korea. Officials on both sides are hopeful that progress here can improve diplomatic, economic, and military ties between the two countries.

OBSERVATION - Both countries are facing common regional threats for NK and China. Its in their best interest to reconcile on these issues.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering in its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Vladimir Putin warns EU that gas supplies could keep dwindling. The Russian leader’s statement cranks up pressure on the bloc, which fears Moscow could turn off the tap to wreak havoc in Europe in the winter.
The Russian leader also warned the West that its plan to cap the prices of Russian oil as part of its sanctions over Ukraine will destabilise the global oil market and make prices soar.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that the geographical objectives of Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine are no longer limited to the eastern Donbas region but include a number of other territories, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported.
Lavrov added that Russia’s objectives will expand still further if the West delivers long-range weapons to Kyiv, the agency said.

US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby announced that the Kremlin is beginning to roll out a version of its 2014 “annexation playbook” in Ukraine and is “examining detailed plans” to annex Kherson, Zaporizhia, and all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, citing newly declassified intelligence.

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted OSINT and other analysts were seeing signs of this over a month ago. Some analysts suggest that the Kremlin will likely attempt to illegally annex occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts into Russia as early as September 11, 2022.

RUMINT -
More questions about Putin’s health. Footage of the Russian leader’s arrival showed him shuffling down the steps of his jet as he landed in Tehran to meet with fellow global terror master Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
With his right arm limp by his side, Putin, 69, was seen looking unsteady on his feet as he walked down a long red carpet rolled out for him at the capital’s Mehrabad airport.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- A report released by the Russian human rights organization “Rus Sidyashchaya” confirmed observations that Russian authorities are conducting recruitment drives within Russian prisons. The report cited evidence that penal colonies in Russia’s Leningrad, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod, and Vladimir oblasts and Mordovia, Adygea, and other regions received deployment offers for convicts. Other independent Russian sources previously reported that the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) was actively recruiting from penal colonies in St. Petersburg.

- 11,000 Russian and Russian-backed “occupiers” killed in the battle for Severodonetsk. Definitely a bloody victory.
OBSERVATION - This would account for nearly 1/3d of all Russian casualties in the war to date.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Not much change from previous days. Russia’s resumption of the offensive into the rest of the Donbas seems pretty sluggish. HIMARS still has Russian leadership pretty spooked as does the apparent preparations for a Ukrainian offensive into the Kherson Oblast.

Link to map below produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure.

Russian forces working to resume offensive operations northwest of Slovyansk from the southeast and southwest of Izyum. Mostly recon in force attacks.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery fire concentrated on the eastern and southeastern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient. . Less artillery by Russians along LOC north of Donetsk.

Russian forces made incremental gains east of Bakhmut and continued efforts to advance toward Bakhmut from the south.

Russian forces did not make any confirmed ground attacks around Donetsk City and focused on firing along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline

Crimea Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks along the northern margin of the front.

Ukraine struck the Antonivsky bridge over Dnipro near Kherson for a second time over night. The Antonivskyy spans the Dnipro river and is the shortest route for Russian reinforcements to reach the city from Crimea. This second strike managed to force the bridge to be closed to traffic.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory - ——
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance ——
Russian occupation authorities are escalating law enforcement measures to protect administrative control of occupied areas. The GUR also released a document signed by the Russian-backed head of Kherson’s Kakhovskyi district that grants law enforcement the discretion to detain and search residents. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Internal Ministry similarly reported that LNR law enforcement is escalating measures to prevent “extremist” activity in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. These data points indicate that Russian occupation authorities are responding to the perceived threat of Ukrainian partisan actions by strengthening regime control on the administrative level through the use of localized law enforcement.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Ukraine’s success has gotten the attention of the Kremlin.

OUTLOOK ——
Things look to continue at a low tempo, but it is unknown for how much longer. Russia is spooked about Ukraine getting longer ranged missiles as well as trying to take actions to protect their logistics (ammo dumps) and CPs. Ukraine’s threatened offensive into the Kherson Oblast seriously threatens supply lines coming from Crimea and Russia having placed its second stringers there for defense of the region while diverting all the better equipped and trained unit into Eastern Ukraine. Now they are facing a potential big fight on two fronts.

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Pakistan -

Pakistan’s deposed former Prime Minister Imran Khan is calling for new national elections after his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won 15 of 20 seats during regional elections in Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab. The national elections must be held no later than October of next year due to Khan’s ouster by a vote of no confidence this past April.

OBSERVATION - This will continue to keep civil unrest at high levels.
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Iran -

Khamenei - Iran & Russia’s long-term cooperation is greatly, deeply beneficial to both countries. You, Mr. Putin, and our President are people who take action & follow up on it. Thus, cooperation between the two countries should reach a peak in this period. NATO is a dangerous entity. The West is totally opposed to a strong, independent Russia. If the way is opened for NATO, it will recognize no limits. If it hadn’t been stopped in Ukraine, it would have later started a similar war in Crimea.

Iran has a love-hate relationship with Russia. Right now there is more ‘love’ due to the common enemy - the US. Iran also doesn’t want to get on the wrong side of Russia as they pursue the bomb.
__________________________________

Syria -

Turkey’s Erdogan - “Our military operations against Kurdish organizations in Syria will continue” “Tel Rifat and Manbij have become a hotbed of terror. The time has come to clear these ports where the terrorist organization took refuge.”

Russia, Turkey and Iran to continue cooperation to “eliminate militants” in Syria - joint statement.

Khamenei - “Iran’s stance is opposition to a military attack on Syria, & such an action should be prevented. Another important issue in Syria is the usurping of fertile, oil-rich regions to the east of the Euphrates by the Americans. This should be solved by expelling them from the region

OBSERVATION - Mixed bag of nuts for the meeting of the three leaders regarding Syria. They tried to remain nicey nice but restated that they will in most part continue what they have been doing.
__________________________________

Turkey -

Putin - “We proposed to the Turkish side the necessity of lifting the sanctions targeting Russia, which prevent the facilitation of the export of grain”

OBSERVATION - Russia is as bottled up as Ukraine is in many ways. It was interesting to see the Russian and Turkish leaders face off - particularly when Turkish drones have been such a bane to Russian forces.

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Armenia will withdraw all troops from the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region – over which it has fought two wars with arch-foe Azerbaijan – by September, officials said Tuesday.

OBSERVATION - Armenia has lost the protection of Russian forces there to maintain the peace as they have been withdrawn for the war in Ukraine. Big win for Turkey in the region.

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Misc of Note -

Eli Dicken stopped the mall shooter in 15 seconds flat, landing 8 out of 10 shots from his 9mm at up to 40 yards!

OBSERVATION - Here is a case where an armed citizen was in the right place at the right time with the right training.

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Black Swans -

In the Russian Krasnodar Krai, a giant plague of locusts is destroying crops of the Primorsko-Akhtar region on the Black Sea. And the voracious flying insects have already ravaged up to 80% of livestock feed (hay, etc…) in some regions of Yakutia (northeast Russia), where a state of emergency has been declared in several settlements

OBSERVATION - Over the past couple years I’ve noted here the epic locust swarms that have hit portions of the world. Russia is currently projected to have a good crop this year, and this may put a serious dent into it. Locusts elsewhere may make thing even worse - but those swarms are either not present so far or not bubbled up to the top of the news cycle.

Back after a wonderful, short get away with the wife. Went to a wonderful little town in the middle of the state, soaked in a relaxing hot spring, and ate steaks from local grass fed cattle. Life is good here.
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Biden announced on Wednesday that his administration would take executive action to combat the apparent climate “emergency” in the coming weeks. While it was initially rumored that the president would declare a national emergency over the issue, he stopped short of this drastic step.
Speaking at a shuttered coal power plant in Massachusetts, Biden declared that “since Congress is not acting as it should,” he would use his “executive powers to combat the climate crisis in the absence of executive action.”
Biden explained that he would begin signing executive orders in the coming days to fund flood defense programs, give money to low-income families to cover heating costs, and establish massive offshore wind farms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Not enough for some geenies. Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) wants Joe Biden to declare a national climate emergency. February, CBD published a report entitled, “The Climate President’s Emergency Powers: A Legal Guide to Bold Climate Action from President [sic] Biden” that lays out a roadmap for the Resident-in-Chief to follow to deconstruct American energy.

OBSERVATION - Not sure how long biden will put off issuing a full blown climate ‘emergency’ declaration. Such an overt EO will send oil prices skyrocketing, offsetting the mild decline in prices (oil futures anticipating a global recession). Climate change is one of the last thing on voters minds this election cycle, pocket books issues are.
______________________________

Wuhan virus -

RIVM - a research institute that is part of the Dutch Ministry of Health - reported a basic two-dose Covid vaccination offered no protection against Covid hospitalization. Worse, vaccinated people were 20 percent more likely to need intensive care than the unvaccinated.
“There was hardly any visible protective effect of the COVID-19 basic vaccination series against hospital and ICU - intensive care- intake,” the researchers wrote. The report is based on hospitalizations across the Netherlands from March 15 through June 28, not a small sample. And like the United States, the Dutch relied overwhelmingly on mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna - the supposed gold standard for Covid shots.
After seven months, vaccinated people in their fifties and sixties had a 68 percent higher risk of being hospitalized for Covid compared to the unvaccinated. They had a 41 percent higher risk of needing intensive care. The trends were similar for people 70 and over, though most of them had been boosted or received a fourth shot, so comparisons were harder to make.

AND THERE’S MORE. A UK Government agency, known as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), has just published data on deaths by vaccination status in England up to 31st May 2022.
The latest dataset from the ONS is titled ‘Deaths by Vaccination Status, England, 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2022‘. From the report, the vaccinated population have accounted for over 9 in every 10 Covid-19 deaths in England, and a shocking 91% of those deaths have been among the triple/quadruple vaccinated.

OBSERVATION - More and more data shows that the branch civilian mantra of “epidemic of the unvaccinated” was and is complete and uncomposted bovine excrament. Even the claims that is wuhan is caught by the jabbed, symptoms will be less - unless higher death rates are now redefined as ‘less’ are gone.
______________________________

Economy -

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week rose to the highest level in more than eight months in what may be a sign that the labor market may be weakening.
Applications for jobless aid for the week ending July 16 rose by 7,000 to 251,000, up from the previous week’s 244,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s the most since Nov. 13, 2021 when 265,000 Americans applied for benefits.

OBSERVATION - Could be a precursor to recession - job losses. Need to track along with other indicators.

Hyundai Motor Co., factory robot builder ABB and Swedish fridge maker Electrolux see the semi-conductor chip shortage easing, executives said Thursday, in a boost for manufacturers after a long struggle for components. Some of the CEOs are saying that supply looks to be improving throughout the rest of the year.

OBSERVATION - Good news after a fashion, however the supply chain is still susceptible to interruption as not enough time has elapsed to relocate manufacturing facilities away from those at risk from future disruptions.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday declined to reinstate President Joe Biden’s policy shifting the focus of America’s immigration enforcement toward public safety threats, handing a victory to Texas and Louisiana as they challenge a plan they call unlawful.
The justices on a 5-4 vote denied the Biden administration’s request to block a federal judge’s ruling that had prevented immigration officials from carrying out the enforcement guidelines while litigation over the legality of the policy continues.
But the court said in a brief order that it would fast-track the Biden administration appeal and hear oral arguments in December.

OBSERVATION - This is what happens when you illegitimately try to circumvent laws and regulations. This is also an example where biden will play the courts to maintain these illegal policies for as long as possible.

The Biden administration has canned several immigration judges, all appointed by Trump, and replaced them with “progressive” magistrates.

OBSERVATION - Can we say ‘I’m shocked’.

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

On the one year anniversary in which he said that vaccinated Americans could not get COVID-19, quadruple vaxxed Joe Biden has reportedly tested positive for COVID-19.

OBSERVATION - Seriously on health watch as the WH has clamped down on any information other than what they’d put out. Pure speculation - would this be enough to get him 25th out of office?

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Andy Ngo reports that Antifa members in Portland & beyond are extremely distressed some of their operations may be exposed now that the FBI has reportedly presented warrants to email providers & social media. Antifa are urging emergency in-person only meetings with local cells.

OBSERVATION - The doxxers have become the doxxed. I doubt the FBI will aggressively pursue any of these punks, too busy making up other things.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Merriam-Webster caved in to the woke mob’s language demands and has now redefined the word “female” to include men.

__________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican candidate for New York governor, was attacked by a man who tried to stab him at an upstate event Thursday but was uninjured, his campaign said. He is challenging incumbent Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul in November.
In a statement, Hochul said: “Relieved to hear that Congressman Zeldin was not injured and that the suspect is in custody. I condemn this violent behavior in the strongest terms possible — it has no place in New York.”

OBSERVATION - Hochul’s office just earlier in the day sent out an inflammatory post along with a schedule of Zeldin appearances that implied her supporters should nonpeacably protest him.

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Army cut its force size projections for 2022 and 2023 Tuesday in the midst of a historic recruitment struggle, raising questions about overall readiness as it clings to its “woke” agenda.
The Army could miss its recruitment goal for 2022 by 25%, Army Gen. Joseph Martin, vice chief of staff for the Army, told The Associated Press. Projected end strength, the total size of the Army including active and reserve components, is set to decrease by 10,000 troops this year and an additional 14,000 to 21,000 in 2023.

OBSERVATION - Army saying they would chose ‘quality’ over quantity. They will be getting neither. This on top of a potential round two of wuhan jab expulsions that could cause the loss of 250,000 soldiers from the ranks.
Deliberate? I’d say so.
ALSO - This could be used as a justification to bring back the draft.
_________________________________

China -

Biden: The military doesn’t think Pelosi should go to Taiwan.
Pelosi says military afraid China will shoot down plane over Taiwan

OBSERVATION -
China’s rhetoric towards a Pelosi visit was vehement, but not beyond the scope of previous denunciations. Was there something else that caught the eyes of intelligence? Not sure, not enough info. May be more domestic political using the military as a smokescreen.

Bank runs in China and associated protests have reportedly gotten so bad Chia has stationed tanks at banks to ‘protect’ them. The Chinese govt has also reportedly said they would cover/reimburse depositors for the lost savings.

OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue to strike the common citizen. Xi struggling to get this aspect undercontrol before then next party wide meeting where he has the chance to become leader for life.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

The US welcomes the “agreement in principle” brokered by the UN and Turkey between Russia and Ukraine to allow the safe transport of Ukrainian grain from blocked ports, but is focused on “holding Russia accountable” for implementation and getting grain to the world.

OBSERVATION - I expect to see Russia interfere fully - much like they sabotaged the Humanitarian corridors earlier on.

RUMINT -
More commentary on Putin’s health.

Logistics -
- Use of S300 missiles in ground attack roles has increased, lending suspicion that Russia is running out of precision guided missiles.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Murmansk Oblast authorities reported on July 20 that they are recruiting for a new volunteer battalion. Looking at men as old as 60 to be recruited.

Economic Impact -
- After more than a week of maintenance, Russia resumed sending natural gas to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline system, dispelling investors’ fears of a “Doomsday” scenario.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The renewal of active ground offensives following the brief operational pause has not yet translated into meaningful Russian forward progress. Observers and analysts note that Russia appears to be frittering away its forces in small (company size and below) attacks on small and relatively unimportant objectives. British intelligence has estimated that Russia’s attack in eastern Ukraine is about at a stand still due to personnel losses and lack of artillery ammunition.

Intelligence assessments suggest that Russia has remnants of about 50 BTGs committed to the fight in eastern Ukraine. The western front (Crimea) facing across from Ukraine forces in Mykolaiv only about 10 BTGs. This out of an initial estimate of 120 full strength BTGs at the start of the war.

Sudden talk of the west supplying modern, western aircraft to Ukraine. This after such dispute of transferring older Russian aircraft a couple of months ago.

Link to map below produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure. Artillery strikes on Kharkiv proper killed at least three people and injuring at least 23 others Thursday morning.

A number of company sized and smaller attacks by Russia south of Izyum.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery fire concentrated on the eastern and southeastern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

In easternmost Donetsk region, Ukrainian defenders repulsed company and platoon sized Russian attacks on the Vuhlehirs’ka power plant and Vershyna.
More scattered Russian artillery strikels along the LOC between Zaporizhzhia and Donets.

Crimea Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks along the northern margin of the front. More intense artillery targeting Ukranian positions between Kherson and Mykolaiv. Additionally, Russian used more modified S300 AD missiles to strike targets in and around Mykolaiv

The Antonovskiy bridge remains functional in spite of strikes from Ukrainian forces Its collapse would be problematic for Russia. It is one of only 2 logistical points that Russia can use to supply or withdraw forces from occupied territories west of the Dnipro River

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Nothing significant to report. (NSR)

Russian Territory - ——
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR
Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
NSR

OUTLOOK ——
Lack of Russian push westward into the rest of the Donbas following their operational ‘pause’ is curious. Russian troops are now struggling to move across relatively sparsely-settled and open terrain. They will encounter terrain much more conducive to the Ukrainian defenders the closer they get to the E40 around Slovyansk and Bakhmut due to the increasing population density and built-up nature of these areas. This has caused some analysts to conclude that the current Russian offensive in Donbas is likely to culminate somewhere along the E40 in the coming weeks.

It would suggest to me the potential for a number of things happening. First - the pause is still happening and that Russian forces are too wore out and undermanned/equipped to resume the tempo of combat. Secondly, Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian ammo dumps have made a significant impact on Russia’s ability to support their undermanned ground forces with overwhelming fire support. Third, Russian leadership has yet to figure out what its new objectives will be and is still shuffling units around before kicking off a more substantial offensive . Fourth and finally, Russia has reassessed the threat of an Ukranian offensive into Kherson Oblast and find that they are being caught with their pants down. With a sizable force on the west side of the Dniper River and facing flanking actions by Ukraine, the loss could be substantial as well as their Crimean supply lines threatened. Thus they may be trying to shuffle focus from the east back to the west.

Bottom line is that this is giving Ukraine (and allies) to prepare more fully for defense in the east and offense in the west.

___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko told AFP that he de facto recognizes the occupied areas and, if necessary, will issue a corresponding decree.
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
.
In reaction to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine the EU adopted new sanctions. The related documents are published in the Official Journals L193 and L194
____________________________________

Israel -

Initial reports of significant airstrikes in Damascus, Syria. At least 7 impacts reported. reports correlate around Qudssaya Area in North West Damascus. Initial reports of 3 Syrian soldiers were killed, 7 injured.

OBSERVATION - More Hezbollah sites hit, an almost routine event now.

____________________________________

Iraq -

A little old, but ramifications are still reverberating. Shortly after the tripartite meeting between Turkey, Iran and Russian, Turkinsh bombers killed 10 Iraqi local tourists in an attack on a resort in Zakho district (Duhok) in Kurdistan region. Turkey has denied involvement, but it is clear they were the culprits.
Crowds surrounded the embassy in Bagdad to protest the attack.
Iraq gave Turkey’s ambassador a protest letter calling on his country to withdraw from Iraq and compensate the victims’ families.

OBSERVATION - Iraq is too weak to physically confront Turkey on this matter, however, it has stirred the hornets nest of militias that are now seeking to put hurt to the invaders.

More fallout from the leaked transcript Senior Shia cleric and political leader Muqtada al Sadr is demanding that former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki be prosecuted because of audio recordings of his political views that demonstrate him making deals with anyone, including Iran, to defeat Sadr and his many supporters. Sadr has been unrelenting in his anti-corruption campaign.

OBSERVATION - Though religiously aligned with Iran, Sadr has stronger nationalistic trends and a less corrupt and stable iraq is better for him than an Iranian dominated one.
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Syria -

Russian bombers hit and killed 7 civilians, including 5 children, in the bombing of the villages of Al-Yaqoubia and Al-Jadida in the Jisr Al-Shughur countryside, west of Idlib.

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Libya -

Clashes are being reported in eastern Tripoli, Libya.

OBSERVATION - I noted back on the 17th that opposing forces were mobilizing to Tripoli looking for a fight. This may expand, threatening to bring other nations into the mix such as Egppt. Russia will be unable to help its allies, having pulled out their mercenaries (Wagner Group) to fight in Ukraine, Turkey pulled it forces out to fight the Kurds. Regional instability as well as oil supply impacts expected if this returns to its original level of conflict.

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Misc of Note -

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of confirmed monkeypox cases in the United States climbed by more than 500 over a five-day period.
By sexual orientation, NYC health officials report 98 percent as LGBQ+ or unknown. Only nine cases are attributed to people classified as heterosexual.

OBSERVATION - Un FREEKING believable, that monkey pox is still in the news and being treated above the fold as a danger to the public at large rather than restricted to the gay community. Gays complaining that they are being overlooked much like the breakout of HIV/AIDS.

Yesterday OBE due to search and rescue requirements. Short summary today.
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Wuhan virus -

Dr Birx, who is promoting a new book in which she confesses she manipulated data and quietly altered CDC guidance without authorization, responded to the question of what she would say to unvaccinated people who in light of the ineffectiveness of the vaccines in preventing COVID might ask why they should bother getting the shots.
“I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection and I think we overplayed the vaccines”

OBSERVATION - Playing loose-goosey with the rules and lives of Americans.

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Economy -

Politico calls the coming avalanche of bad economic news a “Category 5 storm.” this coming week.
- Consumer confidence numbers hit on Tuesday.
- The first reading on second quarter economic growth drops on Thursday.
- Finally, consumer price inflation numbers close out week on Friday.

In related - White House economic advisers issued a note on Thursday clarifying the definition of recession prior to the release next week of probably dismal economic data.
Most economists generally look for two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product (GDP) to determine whether an economy has entered a recession. The White House Council of Economic Advisers, however, opposes this definition in a new blog.
“While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle,” the officials wrote.
The second-quarter GDP data will be released on July 28.

OBSERVATION - Orwellian - change the definition to deflect criticism - just like they changed the definition of ‘vaccine’.

Another harbinger of recession? Formerly red-hot RV market appears to be cooling off. Those signs include two planned plant closings.
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China -

China might try to impose a no-fly zone over the island of Taiwan ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s visit in order to prevent the U.S. speaker of the House from being successful, a move that would be unprecedented.

China’s state-run media the Global Times has said that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft will “accompany” the flight that Pelosi would be in to visit Taiwan.

However, it now looks like Pelosi is back on for the trip.

OBSERVATION - Like Pelosi or not, any direct interference or interdiction with her trip would be HUGE and could result in a very serious incident. She would be the highest ranking official to visit the island. A fight could occur very quickly between Taiwan fighters protecting Pelosi and any PLAAF fighters seeking to intercept and ‘accompany’ her.

Taiwan Ministry of Defense reports 4 PLA aircraft (Y-8 ASW, J-16*2 and Y-8 RECCE) entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on July 24, 2022
NOTE - basically a daily occurance now.

China’s property sector economic meltdown continues. If the property crisis spreads to China’s financial system, the shock would be felt far beyond its borders, analysts say.
“Should defaults escalate, there could be broad and serious economic and social implications,” Fitch Ratings wrote in a note on Monday.

OBSERVATION - This is the biggest threat to China and Xi going to war against Taiwan could be the diversion he needs to stay in power.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea, U.S. to restore joint military field drills next month

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
See Russian ‘agreement’ for grain shipments under Ukraine below.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Kremlin is continuing efforts to form regionally-based volunteer battalions. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitskyi gave an interview to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty (RFERL) on July 23 wherein he indicated that the Kremlin is planning to form 16 new volunteer battalions by the end of this month.

- Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov announced that battalions raised to go to Ukraine will not do so. Kadyrov is facing mounting domestic pressure. The anti-Kadyrov Sheikh Mansour battalion reportedly announced an insurgency against Kadyrov’s regime on July 21, and Kadyrov may want to hold the newly formed Akhmat battalions in Chechnya to handle any local unrest.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer.

Ukraine presidential aide Mykhaylo Podolyak cautioned that any Russian breaches of the deal and incursions around Ukraine’s ports would be met with “an immediate military response”

OF COURSE - less than 24 hours after signing this ‘agreement’ Russian missiles hit grain processing facilities as the port of Odessa saying it hit a military vessel and stuff. Actual photos show elsewise.

NASA FIRMS data from July 15-23 shows consistently fewer fires along the entire frontline in the Donbas relative to before July 10, which strongly suggests that HIMARS are having a continued impact on Russian artillery capabilities.

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery fire concentrated on the eastern and southeastern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient. However, reports are that the volume of fire is significantly down.

Schools in Kostiantynivka and Bakhmut were destroyed as result of Russian shelling.

Russian forces launched an attack on the Vuhlehirsk power station, but were reportedly repulsed.

Crimea Front ———
Russian missiles hit a grain loading area in the port of Odessa. Russia claims the strike on Odessa port hit Ukrainian ‘military infrastructure’

Ukraine is continuing to shape the battlefield for the announced offensive to retake Kherson Oblast. An example being Russian media reporting Ukraine has hit the bridge by the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam and another bridge over the Ingulets river. They are 2 of the only 3 crossing points for Russia to supply Kherson. A local official says the Kakhovskaya bridge is damaged- the dam itself not.

There are also reports on increased Ukrainian attacks towards Kherson as well as further north at Davydiv Brid.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian cruse missiles targeted sited in and around the Khmelnitsky region. At least 3 were shot down.

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Ukraine missile hit a suspected logistics/ammo dump in Nova Kakhovka, located east of Kherson.
Railway destroyed in overnight explosions near Novobohdanivka of Melitopol district
Suspected logistics site hit in Melitopol.
Explosions at machinery plant in Horlivka, occupied Donetsk Oblast.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia’s offensive in the east is still spinning its wheels following its declared resumption after an operational ‘pause’. Artillery attacks are fewer and far less intense still. At this stage, this is becoming increasing evidence that the Ukrainan strikes on armor and logistical bases have hurt Russia. The Russian offensive in the east is in danger of sputtering out.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s offensive in the west is methodically moving forward. Continued attacks on Russian controlled bridges will hamper resupply/reinforcements of Russian troops west of the Donets River.

I think that Ukraine is setting Russia up for a diversion and attack primarily from the north. By this I mean Ukraine will make a show of making a direct assault on Kherson from Mykolaiv region, while actually pressing southward and eastward from Davydiv Brid and Vysokopillya. These primary attacks would pressuree Kherson as well as make a run at alternate crossings of the Donets River in the vicinity of Nova Kakhovka. This pincer movement could trap a large number of Russian troops.

ADDITIONAL OBSERVATION - A U.N.-backed deal to resume exports of Ukrainian grain was agreed to on Friday, easing a global food crisis caused by the conflict in Eastern Europe. Like I said in my last post -

“OBSERVATION - I expect to see Russia interfere fully - much like they sabotaged the Humanitarian corridors earlier on.”

Not even a day passed since Russia signed the agreement and they hit the Odessa grain handling facilities at the port.
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Iraq -

Iraqi militant groups attacked Turkish military base in Bamerne area in the Dohuk province with several suicide drones. Liwa al-Ahrar has published a statement claiming responsibility for attacking a Turkish base in the Iraqi province of Duhok. The group says it will continue its operations until Turkey withdraws its forces

NOTE - these groups are reported Iranian backed militias who are hitting Turkish forces because they want to control those portions of Iraq, not Turkey. These attacks are reportedly in response to Turkey’s attack on Zakho on Wednesday.

Iraq has officially requested from the UN Security Council to hold an extraordinary meeting regarding Turkey’s shelling in Zakho on Wednesday which killed nine civilians and injured 22 others, Iraq’s foreign ministry spokesperson Ahmed al-Sahaf told Rudaw on Saturday

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Misc of Note -

The monkeypox outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern, the head of the World Health Organization said, overruling a divided expert panel to issue the group’s highest alert. A large proportion of cases have been among men who’ve had sex with men, and many have occurred within sexual networks, though anyone can contract the disease.
99% of cases for which demographics are available in the US outbreak so far are among men who have sex with men.
Monkeypox has affected over 15,800 people in 72 countries, according to a tally by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published on July 20.

OBSERVATION - Be afraid, be very afraid

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