Yesterday OBE due to search and rescue requirements. Short summary today.
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Wuhan virus -
Dr Birx, who is promoting a new book in which she confesses she manipulated data and quietly altered CDC guidance without authorization, responded to the question of what she would say to unvaccinated people who in light of the ineffectiveness of the vaccines in preventing COVID might ask why they should bother getting the shots.
“I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection and I think we overplayed the vaccines”
OBSERVATION - Playing loose-goosey with the rules and lives of Americans.
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Economy -
Politico calls the coming avalanche of bad economic news a “Category 5 storm.” this coming week.
- Consumer confidence numbers hit on Tuesday.
- The first reading on second quarter economic growth drops on Thursday.
- Finally, consumer price inflation numbers close out week on Friday.
In related - White House economic advisers issued a note on Thursday clarifying the definition of recession prior to the release next week of probably dismal economic data.
Most economists generally look for two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product (GDP) to determine whether an economy has entered a recession. The White House Council of Economic Advisers, however, opposes this definition in a new blog.
“While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle,” the officials wrote.
The second-quarter GDP data will be released on July 28.
OBSERVATION - Orwellian - change the definition to deflect criticism - just like they changed the definition of ‘vaccine’.
Another harbinger of recession? Formerly red-hot RV market appears to be cooling off. Those signs include two planned plant closings.
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China -
China might try to impose a no-fly zone over the island of Taiwan ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s visit in order to prevent the U.S. speaker of the House from being successful, a move that would be unprecedented.
China’s state-run media the Global Times has said that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft will “accompany” the flight that Pelosi would be in to visit Taiwan.
However, it now looks like Pelosi is back on for the trip.
OBSERVATION - Like Pelosi or not, any direct interference or interdiction with her trip would be HUGE and could result in a very serious incident. She would be the highest ranking official to visit the island. A fight could occur very quickly between Taiwan fighters protecting Pelosi and any PLAAF fighters seeking to intercept and ‘accompany’ her.
Taiwan Ministry of Defense reports 4 PLA aircraft (Y-8 ASW, J-16*2 and Y-8 RECCE) entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on July 24, 2022
NOTE - basically a daily occurance now.
China’s property sector economic meltdown continues. If the property crisis spreads to China’s financial system, the shock would be felt far beyond its borders, analysts say.
“Should defaults escalate, there could be broad and serious economic and social implications,” Fitch Ratings wrote in a note on Monday.
OBSERVATION - This is the biggest threat to China and Xi going to war against Taiwan could be the diversion he needs to stay in power.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
South Korea, U.S. to restore joint military field drills next month
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its fifth month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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See Russian ‘agreement’ for grain shipments under Ukraine below.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Kremlin is continuing efforts to form regionally-based volunteer battalions. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitskyi gave an interview to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty (RFERL) on July 23 wherein he indicated that the Kremlin is planning to form 16 new volunteer battalions by the end of this month.
- Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov announced that battalions raised to go to Ukraine will not do so. Kadyrov is facing mounting domestic pressure. The anti-Kadyrov Sheikh Mansour battalion reportedly announced an insurgency against Kadyrov’s regime on July 21, and Kadyrov may want to hold the newly formed Akhmat battalions in Chechnya to handle any local unrest.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer.
Ukraine presidential aide Mykhaylo Podolyak cautioned that any Russian breaches of the deal and incursions around Ukraine’s ports would be met with “an immediate military response”
OF COURSE - less than 24 hours after signing this ‘agreement’ Russian missiles hit grain processing facilities as the port of Odessa saying it hit a military vessel and stuff. Actual photos show elsewise.
NASA FIRMS data from July 15-23 shows consistently fewer fires along the entire frontline in the Donbas relative to before July 10, which strongly suggests that HIMARS are having a continued impact on Russian artillery capabilities.
Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery fire concentrated on the eastern and southeastern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient. However, reports are that the volume of fire is significantly down.
Schools in Kostiantynivka and Bakhmut were destroyed as result of Russian shelling.
Russian forces launched an attack on the Vuhlehirsk power station, but were reportedly repulsed.
Crimea Front ———
Russian missiles hit a grain loading area in the port of Odessa. Russia claims the strike on Odessa port hit Ukrainian ‘military infrastructure’
Ukraine is continuing to shape the battlefield for the announced offensive to retake Kherson Oblast. An example being Russian media reporting Ukraine has hit the bridge by the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam and another bridge over the Ingulets river. They are 2 of the only 3 crossing points for Russia to supply Kherson. A local official says the Kakhovskaya bridge is damaged- the dam itself not.
There are also reports on increased Ukrainian attacks towards Kherson as well as further north at Davydiv Brid.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian cruse missiles targeted sited in and around the Khmelnitsky region. At least 3 were shot down.
Russian Territory - ——
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR
Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Ukraine missile hit a suspected logistics/ammo dump in Nova Kakhovka, located east of Kherson.
Railway destroyed in overnight explosions near Novobohdanivka of Melitopol district
Suspected logistics site hit in Melitopol.
Explosions at machinery plant in Horlivka, occupied Donetsk Oblast.
OUTLOOK ——
Russia’s offensive in the east is still spinning its wheels following its declared resumption after an operational ‘pause’. Artillery attacks are fewer and far less intense still. At this stage, this is becoming increasing evidence that the Ukrainan strikes on armor and logistical bases have hurt Russia. The Russian offensive in the east is in danger of sputtering out.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s offensive in the west is methodically moving forward. Continued attacks on Russian controlled bridges will hamper resupply/reinforcements of Russian troops west of the Donets River.
I think that Ukraine is setting Russia up for a diversion and attack primarily from the north. By this I mean Ukraine will make a show of making a direct assault on Kherson from Mykolaiv region, while actually pressing southward and eastward from Davydiv Brid and Vysokopillya. These primary attacks would pressuree Kherson as well as make a run at alternate crossings of the Donets River in the vicinity of Nova Kakhovka. This pincer movement could trap a large number of Russian troops.
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATION - A U.N.-backed deal to resume exports of Ukrainian grain was agreed to on Friday, easing a global food crisis caused by the conflict in Eastern Europe. Like I said in my last post -
“OBSERVATION - I expect to see Russia interfere fully - much like they sabotaged the Humanitarian corridors earlier on.”
Not even a day passed since Russia signed the agreement and they hit the Odessa grain handling facilities at the port.
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Iraq -
Iraqi militant groups attacked Turkish military base in Bamerne area in the Dohuk province with several suicide drones. Liwa al-Ahrar has published a statement claiming responsibility for attacking a Turkish base in the Iraqi province of Duhok. The group says it will continue its operations until Turkey withdraws its forces
NOTE - these groups are reported Iranian backed militias who are hitting Turkish forces because they want to control those portions of Iraq, not Turkey. These attacks are reportedly in response to Turkey’s attack on Zakho on Wednesday.
Iraq has officially requested from the UN Security Council to hold an extraordinary meeting regarding Turkey’s shelling in Zakho on Wednesday which killed nine civilians and injured 22 others, Iraq’s foreign ministry spokesperson Ahmed al-Sahaf told Rudaw on Saturday
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Misc of Note -
The monkeypox outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern, the head of the World Health Organization said, overruling a divided expert panel to issue the group’s highest alert. A large proportion of cases have been among men who’ve had sex with men, and many have occurred within sexual networks, though anyone can contract the disease.
99% of cases for which demographics are available in the US outbreak so far are among men who have sex with men.
Monkeypox has affected over 15,800 people in 72 countries, according to a tally by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published on July 20.
OBSERVATION - Be afraid, be very afraid
ping to the above - whoops
Daily post delayed - OBE will get it out later today.
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Wuhan virus -
The U.S. Army has approved just 20 COVID-19 vaccine religious exemption requests out of 8,000 servicemembers who applied, approval rate of just 0.25% of permanent religious exemption requests
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Economy -
U.S. gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels in the last week. This windfall increase is nearly 50 times greater than predictions and has caused consumer gas prices to drop below $4.50 for the first time in months. This comes in the wake of a renewed oil boom in the United States which has increased drilling, raising its active rig count by 57% compared to 2021. The international rig count has also jumped 8.7% as global demands continue to increase.
OBSERVATION - I wouldn’t be singing “happy days are here again”. biden’s plans for the US oil industry haven’t changed - he wants them eliminated. Further, globally, things can change rapidly and with it the price and availability of oil and its byproducts.
Looking into the tea leaves, most expect the Fed to raise interest rates 75 basis points on Wednesday for the second straight month .
Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, says the Fed is going to have to brake the economy much harder to get inflation down to its 2% goal.
“Simply getting relief on the supply side, isn’t enough” to return inflation back to 2%, said Luzzetti. “You need to impact demand materially.”
He sees the Fed raising rates to a range of 4% to 4.25% by the first quarter of next year, compared with 1.5% to 1.75% today, which will drive the unemployment rate to 5.5%.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged Sunday that the U.S. is experiencing an economic “slowdown” but downplayed the potential for a recession, arguing that the country is in a period of “transition” following rapid economic growth/ “The economy is slowing down,” Yellen said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” adding that a correction is “appropriate” for a healthy economy.
OBSERVATION - “transition” is the new ‘transitory’.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Observers have noticed an increase in the volume of firearms and related training courses offered by left wing training outfits. Not certain if this will be a continuing trend, but I’ve been noting firearm and military style training since 2020. Little doubt that Antifa et al will be more inclined to use firearms more in their protests than in the past.
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Cyber Warfare -
FBI investigation determined Chinese-made Huawei equipment could disrupt US nuclear arsenal communications. Since at least 2017, federal officials have investigated Chinese land purchases near critical infrastructure, shut down a high-profile regional consulate believed by the US government to be a hotbed of Chinese spies and stonewalled what they saw as clear efforts to plant listening devices near sensitive military and government facilities.
Among the most alarming things the FBI uncovered pertains to Chinese-made Huawei equipment atop cell towers near US military bases in the rural Midwest. According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, the FBI determined the equipment was capable of capturing and disrupting highly restricted Defense Department communications, including those used by US Strategic Command, which oversees the country’s nuclear weapons.
OBSERVATION - Our leadership is sooo stupid to allow this to go on for so long.
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China -
The Commerce Department is investigating cell towers equipped with hardware built by Chinese telecom firm Huawei, which could be used to gather information on nearby military facilities and missile silos.
There are reports that during last week, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military conducted a large-scale repositioning of Corps and Army level command and control units south towards military bases near Hainan and west into Xinjiang province.
OBSERVATION - While moving commands around would not be uncommon for exercises, it may also represent a possible D-30 day indication and warning of imminent military action. Looking at other actions that would indicate exercise or war prep. If war, potential targets would be Taiwan or the LOC with India.
Taiwan began its largest annual military exercise aimed at preparing the nation for an attack or invasion by its neighbor China. The exercise, dubbed “Han Kuang” (Han Glory in English), is set to last five days and is heavily focused on urban warfare and deploying precision weapons like Stinger missiles and anti-tank guided missiles from urban strongholds.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
DPRK conducted a late day artillery drill firing Sunday in first detected projectile firing detected by ROK after recent weeks lull in projectile firing by DPRK
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Detailed information on the Ukraine offensive to regain Kherson Oblast is foggy. In part because of Ukranian OPSEC. US intel says that the offensive is very much ongoing and aggressive. Russian response can be tracked - largely via artillery strikes and Russian milbloggers. Evidence indigoes that Ukraine is still preparing the battlefield via its artillery - taking out Russian controlled bridges and eliminating/reducing Russian ability to reinforce and rearm its forces. Rumors suggest Russian leadership has migrated east of the Donets river, trying to get out of harms way. However, this will leave the forces west of the Donets River in a situation where comms to higher commands are still poor to non-existent in some ways. This would hamstring the Russians into ineffectively defending themselves.
Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report (NSR)
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, a wider number of targets than recent, but volume is uncertain. .
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery fire concentrated on the eastern and southeastern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.
Ukrainian military repelled Russian assaults at Berestove - Ivano-Daryivka and Verkhniokamyanka - Ivano-Daryivka. Russian forces conducting offensive attacks near Spirne, but with no success.
Scattered artillery fire along the LOC along the western portion of the front
Crimean Front -
Russian aircraft launched Kh-59 missile at Lyubymivka village of Dnipro district.
Russian artillery struck targets along the Kherson - Mykolaiv front.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile attacks scattered throughout the region.
Russian Territory - ——
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian-controlled railway near Novobohdanivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, 30 km north of Melitopol, overnight on July 23-24. Geolocated images of the aftermath show splits in a rail juncture in Novobohdanivka that cuts off Vasylivka and Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast from the main rail line to Melitpool. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces use the rail line to transport equipment and personnel from Melitopol towards Vasylivka and Tokmak
Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Explosions reported from a probable ammo/logistical dump in Tavriisk, Kherson region
OUTLOOK ——
Things are kinda slow on the battle lines. The continuation of the Russian offensive into Donbas i9s essentially stalled. Artillery hitting a lot of reported areas, but volume of fire is considerably lacking. Info out the Kherson area is cloudy, not much comoing out as far as action and where.
My best guess at this stage is that Ukraine has put Russian planners between a rock and a hard place. HIMARSs seems to have really hurt the Russian logistic - especially artillery ammo. In the east, personnel replacements are hardly trained and it appears command and control has broken down. In the west, HIMARS and even poorer troops (all the good ones went east to support the primary offensive) facing Ukranian counter offensive. And their supply lines are getting hammered.
I expect that more details of the offensive in the west will become clearer, and Russian will be forced to make some hard choices.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
The Prime Minister of Moldova - “We are very concerned about the risk of a possible Russian invasion if military operations are directed towards southwestern Ukraine.”
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Iraq -
2nd rocket attack against Turkish Zlikan base, Iraq, 7 rockets used.
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Syria -
Turkish forces bombarded positions of the Pro-Assad forces and SDF forces in the areas of Tal Madiq, Harbel, Abyan, Shawargha and Al-Alqmiya north of Aleppo.
OBSERVATION - Things are heating up with Turkey in both Syria and Iraq.
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