Replies

________________________________

Wuhan virus -

The U.S. Army has approved just 20 COVID-19 vaccine religious exemption requests out of 8,000 servicemembers who applied, approval rate of just 0.25% of permanent religious exemption requests

______________________________

Economy -

U.S. gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels in the last week. This windfall increase is nearly 50 times greater than predictions and has caused consumer gas prices to drop below $4.50 for the first time in months. This comes in the wake of a renewed oil boom in the United States which has increased drilling, raising its active rig count by 57% compared to 2021. The international rig count has also jumped 8.7% as global demands continue to increase.

OBSERVATION - I wouldn’t be singing “happy days are here again”. biden’s plans for the US oil industry haven’t changed - he wants them eliminated. Further, globally, things can change rapidly and with it the price and availability of oil and its byproducts.

Looking into the tea leaves, most expect the Fed to raise interest rates 75 basis points on Wednesday for the second straight month .
Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, says the Fed is going to have to brake the economy much harder to get inflation down to its 2% goal.
“Simply getting relief on the supply side, isn’t enough” to return inflation back to 2%, said Luzzetti. “You need to impact demand materially.”
He sees the Fed raising rates to a range of 4% to 4.25% by the first quarter of next year, compared with 1.5% to 1.75% today, which will drive the unemployment rate to 5.5%.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged Sunday that the U.S. is experiencing an economic “slowdown” but downplayed the potential for a recession, arguing that the country is in a period of “transition” following rapid economic growth/ “The economy is slowing down,” Yellen said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” adding that a correction is “appropriate” for a healthy economy.

OBSERVATION - “transition” is the new ‘transitory’.
______________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Observers have noticed an increase in the volume of firearms and related training courses offered by left wing training outfits. Not certain if this will be a continuing trend, but I’ve been noting firearm and military style training since 2020. Little doubt that Antifa et al will be more inclined to use firearms more in their protests than in the past.

___________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

FBI investigation determined Chinese-made Huawei equipment could disrupt US nuclear arsenal communications. Since at least 2017, federal officials have investigated Chinese land purchases near critical infrastructure, shut down a high-profile regional consulate believed by the US government to be a hotbed of Chinese spies and stonewalled what they saw as clear efforts to plant listening devices near sensitive military and government facilities.
Among the most alarming things the FBI uncovered pertains to Chinese-made Huawei equipment atop cell towers near US military bases in the rural Midwest. According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, the FBI determined the equipment was capable of capturing and disrupting highly restricted Defense Department communications, including those used by US Strategic Command, which oversees the country’s nuclear weapons.

OBSERVATION - Our leadership is sooo stupid to allow this to go on for so long.

_________________________________

China -

The Commerce Department is investigating cell towers equipped with hardware built by Chinese telecom firm Huawei, which could be used to gather information on nearby military facilities and missile silos.

There are reports that during last week, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military conducted a large-scale repositioning of Corps and Army level command and control units south towards military bases near Hainan and west into Xinjiang province.

OBSERVATION - While moving commands around would not be uncommon for exercises, it may also represent a possible D-30 day indication and warning of imminent military action. Looking at other actions that would indicate exercise or war prep. If war, potential targets would be Taiwan or the LOC with India.

Taiwan began its largest annual military exercise aimed at preparing the nation for an attack or invasion by its neighbor China. The exercise, dubbed “Han Kuang” (Han Glory in English), is set to last five days and is heavily focused on urban warfare and deploying precision weapons like Stinger missiles and anti-tank guided missiles from urban strongholds.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

DPRK conducted a late day artillery drill firing Sunday in first detected projectile firing detected by ROK after recent weeks lull in projectile firing by DPRK
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Detailed information on the Ukraine offensive to regain Kherson Oblast is foggy. In part because of Ukranian OPSEC. US intel says that the offensive is very much ongoing and aggressive. Russian response can be tracked - largely via artillery strikes and Russian milbloggers. Evidence indigoes that Ukraine is still preparing the battlefield via its artillery - taking out Russian controlled bridges and eliminating/reducing Russian ability to reinforce and rearm its forces. Rumors suggest Russian leadership has migrated east of the Donets river, trying to get out of harms way. However, this will leave the forces west of the Donets River in a situation where comms to higher commands are still poor to non-existent in some ways. This would hamstring the Russians into ineffectively defending themselves.

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report (NSR)

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, a wider number of targets than recent, but volume is uncertain. .

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery fire concentrated on the eastern and southeastern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Ukrainian military repelled Russian assaults at Berestove - Ivano-Daryivka and Verkhniokamyanka - Ivano-Daryivka. Russian forces conducting offensive attacks near Spirne, but with no success.

Scattered artillery fire along the LOC along the western portion of the front

Crimean Front -
Russian aircraft launched Kh-59 missile at Lyubymivka village of Dnipro district.

Russian artillery struck targets along the Kherson - Mykolaiv front.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile attacks scattered throughout the region.

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——

Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian-controlled railway near Novobohdanivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, 30 km north of Melitopol, overnight on July 23-24. Geolocated images of the aftermath show splits in a rail juncture in Novobohdanivka that cuts off Vasylivka and Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast from the main rail line to Melitpool. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces use the rail line to transport equipment and personnel from Melitopol towards Vasylivka and Tokmak

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Explosions reported from a probable ammo/logistical dump in Tavriisk, Kherson region

OUTLOOK ——
Things are kinda slow on the battle lines. The continuation of the Russian offensive into Donbas i9s essentially stalled. Artillery hitting a lot of reported areas, but volume of fire is considerably lacking. Info out the Kherson area is cloudy, not much comoing out as far as action and where.

My best guess at this stage is that Ukraine has put Russian planners between a rock and a hard place. HIMARSs seems to have really hurt the Russian logistic - especially artillery ammo. In the east, personnel replacements are hardly trained and it appears command and control has broken down. In the west, HIMARS and even poorer troops (all the good ones went east to support the primary offensive) facing Ukranian counter offensive. And their supply lines are getting hammered.

I expect that more details of the offensive in the west will become clearer, and Russian will be forced to make some hard choices.
___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

The Prime Minister of Moldova - “We are very concerned about the risk of a possible Russian invasion if military operations are directed towards southwestern Ukraine.”
___________________________________

Iraq -

2nd rocket attack against Turkish Zlikan base, Iraq, 7 rockets used.

_________________________________

Syria -

Turkish forces bombarded positions of the Pro-Assad forces and SDF forces in the areas of Tal Madiq, Harbel, Abyan, Shawargha and Al-Alqmiya north of Aleppo.

OBSERVATION - Things are heating up with Turkey in both Syria and Iraq.
__________________________________

Running late again, sorry
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Lots of internet talk about how we are supposed to abandon our car for the electric revolution.
______________________________

Economy -

Biden administration continues to double and triple down on its claims that the US is not in a recession, seeking to back up its redefinition of the word “recession” in an economical sense. Wednesday is the day IIRC that GDP data is released. However, as hard as the regime is trying to spin it ahead of release indicates that it is not going to be a good number.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The yearly count for migrant deaths at the United States-Mexico border has already surged to an all-time high, despite three months being left in the 2021-22 fiscal year, according to the Washington Examiner’s interpretation of data provided by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
For the period covering October 2021 through June 2022, 609 border deaths were reported, eclipsing the 566 deaths from October 2020 to September 2021 — the previous annual high.

Biden administration wants to provide temporary identification cards to illegal immigrants who are awaiting final decisions on their cases, Axios reported.
Officials are considering a pilot program that would help immigrants access housing, health care, transportation and other benefits, two government sources told Axios.
The program also would encourage more frequent communication with law enforcement throughout the legal process, the sources added.

OBSEVATONS - We all know that this is just a step towards providing them what will essentially be a green card and “legalizin”g them

______________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Alan Dershowitz rebuked the House Jan. 6 Select Committee and its supporters, the pursuit to “get” former President Donald Trump has Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans willing to “trash the Constitution.”
_____________________________________

China -

China has dispatched stricter admonishments to U.S. Functionaries about Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s probable visit to Taiwan a foreign ministry representative said on Monday; verifying a report by the Financial Times..
The “hush-hush” discourse conveys notions of possible military action according to the Financial Times citing 6 sources close to the situation.

OBSERVATION - If China takes any kind of action against Pelosi, it would be a declaration of war. There are the military options, but still they have the potential to start a broader war.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Logistics -
- Russia is withdrawing 2S7 howitzers from storage at the 94th arsenal located in the city of Omsk. In early April, 170 2S7s were visible in GE imagery. In Planet imagery of June 2, 135 were visible. In the last available images, dated July 18, 110 howitzers were still stored.
OBSERVATION - Many analysts assess these older S7’s as being in poor shape, like much of the other stored Russian material. Further reports of barrel failure due to poor quality metal and craftsmanship increasing.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Still reports of personnel recruitment issues as well as desertions from units already in theater

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Things relatively static though monitoring unconfirmed reports of some minor Russian gains in the east and Ukraine gains in the west.

Ukraine’s Minister of Infrastructure announced that the first shipment of grain will leave the port of Chornomorsk on July 27.

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report (NSR)

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast, a wider number of targets than recent, but volume is uncertain, but from reports appear to be lower than it has been

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian artillery fire concentrated on the eastern and southeastern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Russian forces reportedly have captured a small town on the southern edge of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Crimean Front -
Appears that artillery and ground action along the Kherson LOC dropped way down overnight.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Air sirens through out the region - scattered misile attqacks. No details on who got hit.

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Explosions reported in Berdiansk, located southwest of Mariupol.
NASA’s FIRMS recently detected a fire at a fuel storage facility in the Budonivskyi district of Donetsk.

OUTLOOK ——

Still low levels of activity in the east. Some increase in fighting in the west - better reporting beginning to come out. Russia really showing no signs of breaking out of their doldrums yet.
Real event is the fight for Kherson and trying to find out just what is happening there. Hopefully things will loosen up and I can get a better feel for what’s happening then.
___________________________________

Israel -

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Monday that all Israeli land and sea “targets” are within the range of the terror group’s missiles in the latest series of threats against the Jewish state amid an ongoing maritime dispute. Hezbollah has recently escalated its rhetoric and actions over the border dispute after Israel moved a natural gas drilling vessel into its Karish field, which Lebanon claims is a disputed area. In its boldest move, Hezbollah sent four drones toward the Karish platform late last month, all of which were intercepted by the Israel Defense Forces.

OBSERVATION - I don’t believe Hezbollah is ready to military strike in a significant way the gas rigs or Israel proper in this dispute.
____________________________________

Lebanon -

See Israel above

__________________________________