Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

I am on the road tomorrow and most of Wednesday. I expect to be back on line fully by Thursday.
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

See China below - using the wuhan app as a social credit population control beta run.

______________________________

Wuhan virus -

Schumer has tested positive for wuhan, in spite of getting all four shots.

______________________________

Economy -

The real-time GDP tracker run by the Federal Reserve, called GDPNOW, fell into negative territory weeks ago and remains there even now. On Friday afternoon, it registered a 1.2 percent contraction in the economy in the second quarter.

The median forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) is 8.8% for its year-over-year measure and will be released officially this Wednesday, yet another result that takes inflation up to its 40-year high. This confirms expectations that the Fed will increase rates by at least 75 basis points at its July meeting on the 26-27th.

Economists look at the price of copper as an indicator that the economy is at risk of recession, and it is flashing red. Historically, when its price goes up, so typically goes the economy. But when its price starts to fall, it could mean the economy is heading in the same direction.

Copper is now trading at about $3.57 per pound. That is a steep and aggressive decline from its peak of $4.94 in March — a nearly 28% decline in just a matter of months. The U.S. GDP in the first quarter of this year declined by 1.6%. Seems the two are hand in glove.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo admits that inflation is a “problem,” but she doesn’t think we should be “talking ourselves into a recession.”

OBSERVATION - Remember, this is the same administration that was saying to us last year that inflation was ‘transitory’.

The US drought Monitor has expanded the nation’s doubt footprint and is now reporting that 70% of the U.S. is affected by abnormal dryness/drought. The service notes drought conditions are rapidly expanding in the Ohio, Tennessee, and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Drought conditions also grow throughout the midwest, negatively impacting agriculture and crop yield. Drought conditions currently affect 30% of Corn, 22% of soybeans, 19% of wheat, and 68% of Cotton Crops. (FO)

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

The New York Post headline reads “Biden’s approval rating craters to 30% after brutal week.” A Saturday Civiqs poll revealed reports that just 29 percent of voters approve of Biden. Media stories question if biden it too “old” to be president.

OBSERVATION - MSM attacks on biden are almost unprecedented. openly attacking a democrat president ahead of a crucial midterm is unbelievable, unless the powers that be ar looking to dethrone him - but then they have to deal wit harris.

Biden said Sunday he is considering declaring a public health emergency to free up federal resources to promote abortion access, even though the White House has said it doesn’t seem like “a great option.”

OBSERVATION - That would be a bad option. Hard to get around the Hyde amendment and would be seen by most as a petty political action.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Continued attacks on pro-life affiliated organizations/buildings. A few more churches were vandalized/set on fire over the weekend.
Otherwise, BLM/Antifa action levels have dropped to very low levels - exceptions being some limited violence in typical strongholds like Portland.

___________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Air Force announced that promotion opportunities for enlisted troops will significantly decrease, delivering a crushing blow to new airmen who were hoping to climb the ranks in the near future.
A press release from the service attributed the decrease in promotion opportunities to restructuring, a decrease in end-strength numbers and higher retention levels.

_________________________________

China -

Hundreds of people in China’s Henan province attended a banking protest on Sunday which turned violent after a clash with a group of unidentified men.
Protesters said the banks had frozen their deposits because of supposed upgrades to their internal systems, but had not been in communication since. Some 39bn yuan ($5.8bn; £4.9bn) is believed to have been frozen, leaving hundreds of thousands affected. Chinese Banks stopped depositors from withdrawing money back in April and have not enabled withdrawals since.

Some bank customers who had visited Zhengzhou later said they had run into issues on their Covid-19 tracing app, which in many Chinese cities is necessary for residents to enter buildings and shops, use public transport or leave the city. If this status turns red, it indicates the person has tested positive for Covid recently or is suspected to have Covid, and must be quarantined for 14 days. Some customers of the four banks said their status had turned red, despite their not having been in contact with any Covid cases.

OBSERVATION - China’s economy is in a world of hurt. Rumors are afoot that the govt has taken the funds fo its own use. Second aspect of this story is the govt’s use of the wuhan passport app to control peoples responses and movements. This is a beta version of what to expect from an eventual social credit passport / credit system that the govt can use to control the population.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea’s military said on Sunday it had detected the trajectories of what appeared to be shots fired by North Korea, possibly from multiple rocket launchers (MLRs).

__________________________________

Japan -

Shinzo Abe’s political party wins supermajority in parliamentary elections. The supermajority will allow the coalition to change Japan’s pacifist constitution, opening up the potential for the country to become a military power.

OBSERVATION - Japan has been trending to increase its military over the past several years facing increased aggressive actions of China and Russia. The urgency may have been made greater with the rise of the biden regime and shaky support from the US.

____________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Logistics -
- Observers noting trains full of rail road ties - suggesting that Russia is working hard to maintain the rail network in captured regions that are being destroyed by artillery and partisan efforts.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Wagner Group is offering 4-month contracts to volunteers with a 240k-rubles-a-month salary plus bonus (150k-700k rubles). Volunteers are trained in Molkino, and they are recruiting for engineer, artillery, armor, and other specialties.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT - I’ve commented on Russian milbloggers being very negative towards putin and the military’s handling of the war. These are not hack but folks who’ve been there, done that for the Russian govt. One of the biggest names out there is former Russian FSB officer - Igor Sterlkov, the man who crossed the border to lead the original 2014 Donbas “separatist” uprising, a veteran of Bosnia, and both Chechen wars. He has recently been complaining of Ukraine HIMARS success against Russian ammo, logistics and command posts saying the strikes have lead to high personnel losses and ammunition shortages. His and other milbloggers voices have become so loud that Russia is looking to censor them.
.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Zelensky has ordered the liberation the south of Ukraine according to Minister of Defense Reznikov. To do so Ukraine is mobilizing a million man army.
NOTE - At the start of conflict, mobilization of one million was started. Now four months into this there are a lot of these reservists trained and ready.

Russian missiles of all kinds have been striking more civilian/residential areas of Ukraine. Increased use of old or altered systems (KM-22 and S-300 for example) with relatively poor accuracy is making matters worse.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army continue to shell border communities of Sumy and Chernihiv regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More artillery fire around the region with very heavy missile strikes on Kharkiv.

Donetsk Oblast -
Continued “relentless” shelling of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk continues. Russian artillery likely being used to preempt any Ukrainan counter attacks while Russian units ‘pause’ to reman and rearm. There have been limited Russian probing attacks, but nothing significant.

Crimea Front -
Substantial Russian artillery strikes along the Kherson - Mykolaiv border with Mykolaiv getting hit with 6 missiles overnight. Increased artillery may be due to Ukraine’s announcement of an offensive in the south.

Ukraine reportedly destroyed a Russian command post and communication systems in Tavriysk .

Russia jets launched 11 Kh-31 missiles at Odesa region
.
Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance -
Nothing significant to report

Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW

Overnight there were at least 11 new missile strikes on Russian military targets suspected to be by HIMARS.
Big Explosions occurred in Mariupol, Alchevsk, Shakhtarsk, Kirovske, Khartsyzk, Chystiakove, Zuhres, Prydorozhnje, Ilovaisk, Kalina Mine & Leninskyi District in Donetsk City and Nova Kakhovka

2 HIMARS missile strikes were also reportedly conducted on Chornobaivka in Kherson destroying Russian equipment, command posts, and ammunition warehouses

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. Russia continues to try to control the tempo in the east with a lot of artillery fire.

A lot of news continues regarding suspected HIMARS strikes on Russian ammo dumps and CPs. Some of these attacks could have been pulled off with conventional artillery, but many sites are located up to 50 KMs from the front. Russia seems powerless to stop/intercept these strikes.

Ukraine projecting an offensive in the south puts Russia on the horns of a dilemma. They just don’t have the forces and equipment to face a major offensive toward Kherson and Crimea. They have the bulk of their efforts focused on the east, leaving lesser quality and equipped forces in the south and west. Ukraine OTOH has far better defensive terrain in the east as well as must be seeing the effects of their interdiction strikes on Russian command and logistics. Additionally, defense can be achieved with fewer forces.

Other sources look at the southern offensive being linked to the flood of western arms and munitions. With Ukraine mobilization into its fourth month, there are plenty of motivated troops for them to draw on.

___________________________________

Belarus -

Putin and Lukashenka in a phone call discussed possible joint response to Lithuanian restrictions on goods transit to Kaliningrad.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko might be bracing for a revolt from his own military officers after they recently expressed their opposition to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, describing that such decision is “pure suicide,” the Express reported Saturday.
“By entering the war against Ukraine, Belarus will be evicted from the community of civilized states and will be an international outcast for many years to come,” the military officers wrote.

OBSERVATION - Lukashenka is the weakest link in Putin’s web. He is facing potential rebellion from his military if he gets too involved in supporting the war against Ukraine. I’ve noted in the past the military’s reluctance to get involved and these warning letters from elements of the Special forces should get his undivided attention.
______________________________________

Poland -

Poland PM’s Morawiecki’s speech at the 77th anniversary of the Augustów Roundup, where at least 600+ Poles were killed by the NKVD: “We’ll never allow a Russian soldier to step on Poland soil again. We’ll never let that happen, unless one of them wants to kneel under one of those crosses.”

_____________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
.
EU nations are scrambling to prepare for a likely complete cutoff of Russian gas. France believes that a cutoff of Russian gas is the most probable outcome, while Germany scrambles to get coal plants back on line.

Expectations of Russia weaponizing gas against Europe’s major economies have grown since Nord Stream drastically cut gas supply to the EU. Inffact Nord Stream 1 is down today for ‘maintenance’, european authorities are concerned Russia won’t turn the supply back on.

____________________________________

Middle East / N. Africa General -

Biden still in the process of final plans for his middle east trip.

___________________________________

Iraq -

Turkish aircraft launched attacks on Kurdish forces in N Iraq, the most significant action in weeks.
_________________________________

Syria -
Turkish Defense Minister Akar says that his country is being targeted by armed forces in northern Syria, especially from Manbij and Tal Rifaat, and indicates the increase in military attacks against Turkish forces in those areas. Further, Turkey will not postpone the military operation in northern Syria.

OBSERVATION - This operation has been long announced, yet delayed for weeks.

__________________________________

Turkey -

See Syria and Iraq above.
______________________________________

Back for a quick roundup
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The World Economic Forum (WEF) released a position paper Monday that inexorably links two claimed global crises as one – “climate change” and the “decline of democracy.” It says fighting the former can save the latter as long as consumers stop burning coal, oil, and gas in exchange for green renewables. The WEF paper argues for the past 15 years, democracy has been in decline worldwide. To protect and promote freedom, “leading democracies must strengthen their economies and safeguard liberty.”
It goes on to say ignoring progress toward a “low-carbon economy could put democracies in greater economic peril, not less” while repeating the broader demand of environmental activists for companies to stop investing fossil fuels.
The paper goes on to argue that compliance can and must be enforced.
Taxes can be imposed on carbon-intensive imports to reduce the risk of unfair competition for their domestic industries “and to deter companies from relocating overseas to avoid compliance at home.”

OBSERVATION - ‘must be enforced’ by whom and what army? GGR has transitioned off the opening wuhan granted and onto the broad climate change bleat.

Much like in the Netherlands, Justin Trudeau is bringing in a nitrogen emissions cap that will absolutely decimate Canadian farming.
In December 2020, the Trudeau government unveiled their new climate plan, with a focus on reducing nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030.
“Fertilizers play a major role in the agriculture sector’s success and have contributed to record harvests in the last decade. They have helped drive increases in Canadian crop yields, grain sales, and exports,” a news release from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reads.
“However, nitrous oxide emissions, particularly those associated with synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use have also grown significantly. That is why the Government of Canada has set the national fertilizer emissions reduction target, which is part of the commitment to reduce total GHG emissions in Canada by 40-45% by 2030….”
This is a tacit admission that any attempt to lower admissions by reducing nitrogen fertilizer will consequently lower crop yields over the next decade, hurting the Agriculture sector and, more importantly, hurting farmers.

OBSERVATION - Altering farming/ranching to meet methane and other ‘goals’ will destroy modern agriculture, a system that is able to feed the current world’s population.

______________________________

Wuhan virus -

More rumblings over the latest, greatest variant. More ‘talk’ about mandating additional shots - even though this variant is mild.

______________________________

Economy -

The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981.

OBSERVATION - This will pretty well lock in a 75 basis point rais in the fed rate later this month.

Oil tumbled as concerns about a global economic slowdown (read recession) and growing Covid-19 cases in China reduced traders’ appetite for risk. West Texas Intermediate shed more than 8% to settle under $96 a barrel for the first time since early April. Rising virus cases in China and looming US inflation data are stoking concerns about demand.

OBSERVATION - Currently only short term relief. Too many factors that can kick the legs out from any price pull back.

U.S. small-business confidence dropped to the lowest level in nearly 9-1/2 years in June amid concerns about inflation, but demand for labor remained solid as businesses continued to grow their operations, a survey showed on Tuesday.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.6 points last month to 89.5, the lowest level since January 2013. Thirty-four percent of owners said that inflation was their biggest single problem in running their business, an increase of six points from May and the highest level since the fourth quarter of 1980.

Railroad freight traffic across the United States could come to a screeching halt July 18 if progress isn’t made on a labor contract between national rail carriers and their unions. This would be a nationwide strike, and the entire system would suddenly be frozen.
At the moment the two sides are in a “cooling off period”, but that “cooling off period” will be over at 12:01 AM on July 18th.

OBSERVATION - The major railroads have claimed they cant move the volume of goods already in the system - creating severe shortage in critical supplies like food to feed lots in Kalifornia, diesel and DEF shortages, fertilizer shortages, etc. Any kind of shutdown has the potential to hammer the economy and sustain inflation rates by the shortages created, and later the inability to catch up on those shortages. Unions and their globalist influencers are behind this - knowing full well the chaos this could cause.

The euro and the US dollar are at parity for the first time in 20 years. Strength of the dollar in the face of a recession is interesting. Metals taking a beating even though globally things are very unstable - a condition where precious metals usually are sought after. U.S. Dollar index is up 16% over the past year.

Cheniere Energy Inc., the nation’s largest liquid natural gas (LNG) producer, has petitioned the Biden administration for an exemption on newly expanded Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions standards. The EPA previously described the pollution from Cheniere’s turbines as “negligible” but is removing exemptions following threats of lawsuits by environmental groups.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

OBSERVATION - Political junkies are focusing in on biden’s remaining time at the WH and wondering how soon the democrats are going to jettison him - even before the midterms. One factor that they seem to be ignoring is the internal turmoil such a move will create - a move that may likely cast them them even more seats in congress. Political commonsense would want the best unity possible going into a major election. Forcing biden out is just the opposite and then the contemplation that Harris will take over - well rock meets hard place.

Dr. Jill regarding the latino community of the United States as being “as unique as the breakfast tacos here in San Antonio.”
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

A California-based crisis pregnancy center hired security after a man showed up at its doors armed with a machete, the center’s president revealed in testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday.
Alternatives Pregnancy Center has taken increased safety measures to respond to this and other threats of violence the clinic has received, including arming staff members and shutting down its mobile clinic, according to testimony from the center’s president, Heidi Matzke.

OBSERVATION - As shrill voices on the left continue to rise, so too the number of nut jobs willing to carry those calls to their logical conclusions are going to come out of the wood work.

Still monitoring rumors that the J6 political show may generate an attempt to arrest Trump - and any ramifications.

___________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The U.S. Air Force 354th Air Expeditionary Wing (AEW) and Marine Aircraft Group 12 performed a capabilities demonstration during a pre-planned readiness exercise at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni, Japan, July 7, 2022. The demonstration included five U.S Marine Corps F/A-18 Hornets, eight F-35B Lightning IIs, a KC-130J Super Hercules aircraft, 10 U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors and 10 F-35A Lightning II aircraft. The large formation exercise tested the units’ ability to rapidly generate joint airpower in support of the defense of Japan, ensuring the stability and security of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
_________________________________

China -

The USS Benfold, a guided-missile destroyer, sailed past the Paracel Islands, located in the South China Sea. China’s Southern Theater Command ordered the Benfold to leave Chinese territorial waters, which the U.S. describes as an international waterway.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from July 5, 2022 indicates that despite heavy rains over the past several weeks, the 5 MWe Reactor continues to produce plutonium for the country’s nuclear weapons program.
To date, no major flooding is apparent, although increased humidity and constant rain may cause problems in some process buildings. Continued rain could bring about flooding of critical facilities later this summer, which may hamper fissile material production.

__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Putin will visit Iran next week, the Kremlin said Tuesday, a day after the U.S. warned that Tehran could provide Moscow with drones for its action in Ukraine.
During a trip to Tehran next Tuesday, Putin will attend a trilateral meeting with the leaders of Iran and Turkey, the so-called Astana format of meetings for Syria-related talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Putin will not discuss the purchase of drones with the two Presidents in Tehran

Logistics -
- The White House said Monday that it believes that Russia is turning to Iran to provide it with “hundreds” of drones, including those capable of carrying weapons, for use in Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian strikes on a Russian base in Kherson City on July 10 killed 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division Commander Colonel Aleksei Gorobets, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division Deputy Commander Colonel Sergey Kens, and 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division Deputy Artillery Commander Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Gordeev. Ukrainian sources reported the strikes also killed 22nd Army Corps Chief of Staff Major General Artyom Nasbulin,

- Russian forces are reportedly forming a new brigade-level combat unit in Kherson Oblast and are continuing to face personnel shortages. The GUR reported that Russian forces are recruiting Russian officers to staff a new brigade-level unit in Kherson Oblast, but officers are refusing to participate in the deployment.

- The Ukrainian Strategic Command reported on July 11 that Ukrainian forces killed Deputy Commander of the 106th Airborne Assault Division Colonel Sergey Kuzminov and Chief of Staff of the 16th Separate Guards SPETSNAZ Brigade Major Dmitriy Semenov

Economic Impact -
- Sales of new passenger cars in Russia are expected to decline 28% in 2022 and could drop as much as 50%, according to a report in the state-run media outlet Tass. The Trust Technologies auditing firm blamed increased sanctions pressure, declining imports and a “massive departure of players” as foreign firms leave Russia.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT - Russia’s RIA Novosti was told by an LNR official that Ukraine inflicted a massive strike on the air defense unit that covers Luhansk. Might be a sign that Ukraine is now shifting HIMARS strikes towards Russian air defenses.
.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. Russian forces continue to regroup, rest, refit, and reconstitute; and bombard critical areas to set conditions for future ground offensives. Such a pause don’t necessarily prelcude the conduct limited probing attacks. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not claim any new territorial control on July 12.

Link to map produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. The small territorial gain in eastern Ukraine is evident.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army continue to shell border communities of Sumy and Chernihiv regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More artillery fire around the region, Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults on Dementiivka on July 12. Persistent Russian attacks against Dementiivka are likely intended to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks from Prudyanka north toward Russian positions in Tsupivka.

Donetsk Oblast -
Continued “relentless” shelling of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk continues. Unconfirmed reports that teh volume of fire has decreased noticably.

Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.

Russian artillery fire hitting Ukrainian controlled Bakhmut tonight. The Stupky area of northern Bakhmut getting absolutely pounded by Russian rockets tonight. The city’s increasingly come under attack as Russia pushed deeper west into the Donbas.

Russian forces conducted air and artillery strikes to the northeast, east, and south of Bakhmut on July 12.

Crimea Front -
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian strikes killed multiple Russian officers in Kherson City on July 10.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots

Russian artillery focusing on the area between Kherson and Mykolaiv.

Following the Russian retreat from Snake Island a large number of ships are waiting to access the smaller 🇺🇦 ports along the Danube border with 🇷🇴 . Capacity is much more limited than Odessa port, but it’s an improvement anyhow.

.
Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance -
Ukrainian sabotage group attacked the Alania volunteer battalion in Huliaipole, eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, while Head of North Ossetian Republic Sergey Menyaylo was with the battalion on an unspecified past date; the attack injured several battalion members but not Menyaylo himself.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW

Nova Khakovka follow up Explosions racked the area for nearly a day. Sources report that at the time of the strike, there was a large fleet of Russian vehicles in at the base, incl. many fuel trucks, at least 50 units
In addition, the presence of more than 200 missiles for the Smerch MLRS was visually confirmed.

Ukraine is continuing to pummel Russian ammunition depots. Video is emerging of new strikes, this time in Russian controlled areas of Luhansk and Chornobaivka, Kherson. Spectacular secondary explosions.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid. Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The urban areas of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase.

The following map calls out these areas more clearly -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXhdA4QXEAMlGTY?format=jpg&name=medium

BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. Russia continues to try to control the tempo in the east with a lot of artillery fire.

As noted above under Russia - apparent HIMARS strikes have taken another chunk out of Russian senior leadership in Ukraine. This is the first documentation of who’s been taken out as eyes have been focused on the spectacular ammo dump explosions. Kherson area command posts seem to be artillery/missile bait as earlier an artillery attack at the airport killed a number of generals and senior staff a couple months ago. I attribute this to sharp eyes of the partisans, good intel integration and targeting (plotting these CPs as Russia seems to be lazy in moving them around) and timely actionable intelligence when the big boys are there.

Hopefully tomorrow I’ll put some thoughts together on how combat and key weapons have changed over the past four months.

___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarus has kicked off military drills in the Homel region, just north of the border with Ukraine. It was there, you will remember, that Russian troops escaped to after their advance on Kyiv was repulsed.

______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
.
France’s Minister of Economy, Finance, and Recovery warned Sunday that Europe should expect a complete halt of Russian natural gas supplies. Le Maire was at the Les Rencontres Economiques economic forum when he made the comments. He urged his European counterparts to immediately seek alternate sources of energy ahead of what he said would be a catastrophic situation in Europe.

____________________________________

Israel -

biden landed in Israel today for the first of several meetings with leaders in the region. Reportedly Israel has four key issues that they want to address-
- Missile Defense systems. During Joe Biden’s visit, Israel will showcase its new Iron Beam laser defense system in hopes of acquiring additional funding for the groundbreaking system. Officials are also expected to push the US to approve the sale of the system to regional countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
- Iran and proxies across the Middle East . Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program to be the No. 1 concern. Although Iran has consistently denied seeking to build a nuclear bomb, tensions have risen as the West seeks to sign a nuclear deal with Tehran. The Islamic Republic also continues to develop ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads that would take less than 15 minutes to reach Israel. Iran has several rockets that could reach Israeli territory.
- Acquiring new planes and helicopters. Israel is concerned with the consistent delays in acquiring KC-46 tankers, which will replace Israel’s Ram (Boeing 707) tanker aircraft that are required for long-range missions and nearing the age of 60.
- MOU. Israeli officials will likely push to start the discussion of a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which would allow Israel to have a framework and the freedom to decide and finance future procurement plans. The last MOU signed between Jerusalem and Washington in 2016 under 0bama gave Israel a landmark $38 billion in military aid over a decade. With talk of the West signing a new nuclear deal with Iran, Israel could even demand more from Biden in order to retain its qualitative military edge.
____________________________________

Iran -

See visit of putin under Russia above.
__________________________________

Syria -

The U.S. military announced it blew up one of the ISIS terrorist group’s top five global leaders – and the leader of the ISIS branch in Syria – in a drone strike in Syria on Tuesday and injured a senior ISIS official.

OBSERVATION - Under the radar, ISIS has been slowly regaining territory in Syria. Not a whole lot, but far more than a couple years ago.
__________________________________

Misc of Note -

On Monday, the city of New York launched a new public service announcement (PSA) that provides guidelines about what residents should do in the event of a nuclear attack. Unfortunately, New Yorkers who watch the PSA will likely be severely ill-prepared should a nuclear weapon detonate in their vicinity, as the video provides little in the way of specifics or useful information.

The beat goes on . . . .
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has removed a 2018 article by the Sri Lankan Prime Minister on Tuesday touting a plan to make the country “rich by 2025” following the total collapse of the country.
In the now-deleted article titled, “This is how I will make my country rich by 2025,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe laid out his vision to “strategically position Sri Lanka as the hub of the Indian Ocean” in part by imposing WEF-sponsored environmental initiatives to address “climate change.”
A food, energy, and financial crisis have brought down Sri Lanka’s government. But the underlying cause is the fact that the nation’s political leaders had fallen under the spell of green elites peddling ‘ESG’ and banning modern fertilizers,” wrote environmental activist Michael Shellenberger.
Sri Lanka has a near-perfect ESG score (98) which is higher than Sweden (96) or the United States (51). It also can’t feed its people and it has run out of nearly everything.”

OBSERVATION - Sri Lanka was a Beta test for the GGR. Obviously it wasn’t done “right” like other communist ploys.

______________________________

Wuhan virus -

The World Health Organization (WHO) is also monitoring the new variant dubbed “Centaurus”. This one is allegedly an Omicron subvariant and even though chief scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, said there were not yet enough samples to assess its severity, virologists are “concerned.” The BA.2.75 variant which is nicknamed “Centaurus,” was first detected in India in early May. Cases in the UK have since risen steeply and apparently faster than those of the extremely transmissible BA.5 variant, which is also present in India and is rapidly displacing the previously dominant BA.2 variant in many countries. Centaurus, has been detected in about 10 other countries, including the UK, US, Australia, Germany, and Canada.

OBSERVATION - More fear porn that most don’t give a rats rear end about.

The US Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday authorized Novavax’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use in adults. It is the fourth coronavirus vaccine available in the United States, and it uses a different type of vaccine technology than the shots already available.

OBSERVATION - Questions concerning this concoction but definitely isn’t the mRNA shot that has killed and disabled hundreds of thousands.

______________________________

Economy -

Bank of America is predicting 4 straight quarters of negative real GDP growth.
1Q22 was -1.6
2Q22 was -1.5
3Q22 forecast- 0.5
4q22 forecast -2.0

The bank said in a note on Wednesday that it forecasts “a mild recession in the US economy this year” and excepts the economy to shrink 1.4 percent compared with the end of last year. It sees growth returning next year but barely so. It forecasts just one percent growth in 2023.

OBSERVATION - I see this as hopium, for nearly two years not the call as been “transitory” inflation and now we are looking at near record Fed rate increases (read below) to try to bring it under control. I see things coming to a serious head in the fall timeframe. You don’t make such large Fed rate hikes with out avoiding a major recession.

The 9.1% inflation rate for June is still rippling through the markets and analysts. Some recent responses are not too promising for the future. Analysts at Wells Fargo called the report “rotten to the core” while BofA Global Research strategists said it confirmed their recent call for a mild U.S. recession.
Federal funds futures, which reflect traders’ bets on monetary policy, recently showed a 70% chance of a supersized 100 basis points rise at the coming meeting, compared with a roughly one-in-nine chance before the report, according to data from the CME Group.
Economists were looking for good new, but not finding it. For example the inversion on the U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve accelerated on Wednesday to as much as 24.20 basis points, the most inverted in nearly 22 years, Refinitiv data showed, once again flashing a signal that has preceded past recessions.

OBSERVATION - Remember, less than a year ago the Fed was looking at only 25 basis points (0.25%) increases, then it jumped to 75 and now looking at 100 (1%). NOTE AGAIN - the Fed is looking to raise in one step what they advertised to occur over the course of a full fiscal year. Shows desperation on the part of the Fed and the seriousness of the situation. Jumping to such a high increase in the Fed rate almost certainly guarantees a recession and a deep one at that. So much for the touted “soft landing”.

Global economic uncertainty has bolstered the dollar, causing it to surge to a 20-year high against a bunch of currencies while the euro broke below parity against the greenback.

Wall Street Journal recently reported -
“Availability of powdered formula products in U.S. stores earlier this month dropped to the lowest level so far this year, with about 30% of products out of stock for the week ended July 3, according to the market-research firm IRI. While availability improved slightly last week, out-of-stock levels remain higher than in recent months, and shortages remain acute in states including Alaska, Utah and Wyoming, IRI data showed.
At the same time, consumers are finding fewer choices of brands, sizes or formats of formula on grocery-store shelves as the variety of available products shrinks. U.S. supermarkets over the four weeks ended June 26 sold an average of 11 different formula products per store weekly, according to IRI, compared with a weekly average of 24 from 2018 to 2021.”

OBSERVATION - just about every other country in the world has shelves full of baby formula. biden’s ‘solution ‘ has been nothing but putting lipstick on a pig - he wants this crisis to continue.

The USSC and Kalifornia have ensured that supply bottlenecks and shortages will become worse. Kanifornia is now in the process to apply AB5, forcing the state’s more than 70,000 independent truckers to decide if they will lose their freedom by becoming an employee, forever park their rigs, or flee the once-Golden State for other gig-friendly states.

OBSERVATION - USSC refused to hear the case. Now the most likely result will be even fewer truck on the road - adding to the already critical shortage.

Flooding in Australia has caused record crop losses, certain to raise the cost of groceries in country as well as exports.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has warned power consumers in Texas to conserve energy on Monday afternoon and evening because there will not be enough wind power to operate the power grid reliably in peak demand.

OBSERVATION - The follies of ‘green ‘ energy continue to be on display in Texas. Texas had a lot of coal/gas power plants - and plenty of electricity to go around until the wackos got control and forced green sources. Now TX has a bunch of closed down plants that regulations won’t allow to be fired back up.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) was asked about Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s executive order authorizing the return of illegal migrants to ports of entry.
““Indeed, he is overstepping the limits. He is not in a position, legally, to make such a decision,” Lopez Obrador said of Abbott, adding that immigration enforcement is in the purview of the U.S. federal government.
“There are elections in November, so they’re looking to sensationalize this,” Lopez Obrador said in Spanish. “They cannot count on us because, even though we are respectful of the sovereignty of the countries, we don’t support that there are anti-immigrant campaigns for electoral purposes. I consider it immoral … political.””

OBSERVATION - Have yet to see the federal challenge to the new Texas policy. IMHO AMLO can stuff it.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Upon arrival in Israel, biden was clearly disoriented.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Montgomery County police in Maryland are warning the public that officers will enforce laws against disturbing the peace at protests outside the homes of Supreme Court justices.
On its website Wednesday night, Montgomery County police posted the following message:
“The Montgomery County Department of Police is committed to preserving the First Amendment rights of all individuals. There are content-neutral Montgomery County Code and Maryland Law provisions that restrict protesting and assembling in a private neighborhood, as well as disturbing the peace.”

OBSERVATION - There are still calls on the left to locate and protest justices wherever they may be found - even to calling for assassination of them. Last month, police arrested a man with a loaded gun (a semi-automatic Glock 17 pistol) outside Kavanaugh’s Maryland home.

___________________________________

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

A federal court has granted the request of two attorneys general for discovery and documents from top Biden officials and social media honchos so they can to get to the bottom of their collusion efforts to suppress and censor free speech.
In May, Attorneys General Eric Schmidt of Missouri and Jeff Landry of Louisiana filed suit against eight high-ranking Biden Administration officials, including Joe Biden, Jen Psaki, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, for allegedly colluding with social media giants to suppress freedom of speech under the pretense of combatting “misinformation.”

The four-count lawsuit alleges the social media companies falsely labeled truthful content “disinformation” and “misinformation,” and contends the suppression constitutes government action, violating constitutionally protected freedom of speech.
The lawsuit also claims the federal government exceeded its statutory authority and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) violated the Administrative Procedure Act.

OBSERVATION - Discovery will be mind boggling.
__________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Biden’s Department of Justice (DOJ) announced the creation of a new task force aimed at increasing access to abortion and other so-called “reproductive rights” following the historic Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. According to CNN, the “Reproductive Rights Task Force” will be chaired by Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta. The group’s purpose will be to “monitor and evaluate” abortion laws at the state and local levels, including bans on abortion-inducing drugs and laws imposing criminal charges for those who aid and abet abortions.

OBSERVATION - Moloch is unhappy. The lawfare is just starting, but with the USSC stripping the constitutional ‘right’ away, the wars will be fought this round at the state level.

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The US military’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced Wednesday it has successfully tested a hypersonic missile manufactured by defense giant Lockheed Martin. DARPA said the ground-launched test was carried out at the Sands Missile Range, New Mexico. In a separate test on Tuesday off the coast of California, the Air Force launched a hypersonic weapon, dubbed the Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW).
_________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Logistics -
- Analysts still looking at Russia’s tactic of using their S300 ADM in a ground attack mode. Already noted is the substantial loss of accuracy - in spite of a GPS module addition. Pretty expensive missile to carry a 50-100 lb warhead to a ‘target’.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian war correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin stated that Russia has begun a “volunteer mobilization,” where every region must generate at least one volunteer battalion. The term “volunteer mobilization” likely implies that the Kremlin ordered the 85 “federal subjects” (regions, including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to recruit and financially incentivize volunteers to form new battalions, rather than referring to literal mobilization relying on conscription or the compulsory activation of all reservists in Russia. Russian outlets reported that regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month
OBSERVATION - If successful, these mobilizations could raise as many as 35,000 for the Ukraine fight - a number about equal to the estimated number of Russian deaths in the war.

Economic Impact -
- Reuters reported that Indian imports of Russian oil surged in June, reaching 950,000 barrels of cheap Russian oil per day. Primary buyer is India, who is willing to play Russia’s ruble for oil game.

- Russia’s energy earnings are already back to pre-war levels after five months of round after round of US and EU sanctions

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian missile strike hit an apartment building in Vinnytsia, many many dead and wounded. Russia has managed to scrape up enough artillery ammo to hit all along the front from eastern to southern Ukraine. Russia keeps the pressure on in the east, but no real changes in territory control.

Link to map produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. The small territorial gain in eastern Ukraine is evident.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Russian army continue to shell border communities of Sumy and Chernihiv regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued to conduct limited and unsuccessful ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces continued artillery and air strikes as well as limited ground assaults but failed to gain territory north and east of Slovyansk on July 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian advances towards Ivanivka, Dolyna, and Dovhenke northwest of Slovyansk

Russian forces continued artillery strikes near Siversk but did not attempt any ground assaults in this area

Russian forces conducted failed ground assaults east of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults towards Yakolivka northeast of Bakhmut and Vesela Dolyna and Vershyna to the southeast.

Crimea Front ———
The Kherson Oblast Administration reported that local residents observed Russian forces fortifying the Antoniv Bridge over the Dnipro River, just east of Kherson City, which may indicate Russian preparations for Ukrainian counteroffensives all the way to Kherson City.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ammunition depots along Russian ground lines of communication.

Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders and settlements on the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline.
.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
About 90 wounded as result of Russian missile strike in Vinnytsia, at least 17 dead. This follows missile alerts across most of the country overnight.

Russian Territory - ——
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance ——
The Russian-appointed administrator of a small town in the Russian-occupied east of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region has been killed by a car bomb presumed to be the work of Ukrainian saboteurs, the regional occupation authorities said

Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW ——-
Pro-RU Source - Russian controlled Horlivka is under heavy artillery fire.

Ukrainian forces struck an air-defense system in Russian-occupied territory, indicating Ukraine looking to shape the battlefield for a potential offensive into Kherson Oblast.

OUTLOOK ——
Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid. Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The urban areas of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase.

The following map calls out these areas more clearly -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXhdA4QXEAMlGTY?format=jpg&name=medium

BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. Russia continues to try to control the tempo in the east with a lot of artillery fire.

The war has changed in tempo and focus over the past few months. One of the biggest areas coming to light is that, though slow, Russia has learned some hard lessons that have taken some advantages away from Ukraine.

First is the neutralization of the Ukrainan ATGM advantage. Terrain as well as heavy covering artillery fire has reduced the effectiveness of ATGM. Eastern Ukraine is more heavily forested, giving shorter clear shots. As the battle moves west, more open terrain will permit increased use of ATGM.

Second - what happened to the TB2 drone? In Eastern Ukraine Russian deployed a huge number of jammers to block the comms links to the drones. TB2s were active against Russians at Snake Island.

Third - Russia learned not to outrun its logistics. The recent fighting in the east was very slow an methodical, making sure they didn’t expose their supply convoys like they did in the north. Fourth - To compensate for its weakened man power, Russia has massed an incredible amount of artillery to cover their ground forces advance west. 10:1 rain of steel on Ukrainan positions degraded the perviously tenacious Ukrainian defense and cost a substantial increase in losses.

Looking forward, terrain and tactical conditions are changing that will force both sides to continue the evolution of tactics. Ukraine has folded the few HIMARs it has into an effective strike force to hit Russian ammo dumps and CPs. Cant shoot without ammo and can’t controls armies without leaders.
Moving into more open terrain and lacking a well defined pocket into which fires could be consolidated, Russia has to look at ways to better support maneuver through fire. This suggests that ‘resource’ battles between Russian commands may resume.

Finally, Ukraine is targeting Russian ADA - this is shaping the battle to allow them to increase ground attack sorties -most specifically in the south. Remarkably , Russian STILL hasn’t established air superiority over the battle field. What lead Russia may have is likely to be eaten away with the arrival of newer more effective western systems that I suspect will be used to protect Ukraine forces in their offensive in the south. That and the recent targeting and losses of Russian ADA in the Crimea/Kherson region will give Ukraine an upper hand.
___________________________________

Israel -

Acting PM Lapid asked Biden in their meeting how long the U.S. Will continue talks with Iran. Biden told Lapid U.S. wants diplomatic solution with Iran but won’t continue talking forever if there is no deal.

____________________________________

Misc of Note -

Found an interesting article titled “Polycrisis of Doom”. In it Adam Tooze, a financial crisis historian and director of the European Institute at Columbia University, warns the world is facing a “polycrisis” — a perfect storm of multiple global socioeconomic influences.

“Polycrisis is not merely the presence of several crises at once. Rather, it refers to a situation where the whole is more dangerous than the sum of the parts, as each individual crisis escalates, compounds and worsens other simultaneous crises “

This explains a lot of what I’ve been seeing and commenting on here. A number of crisis vectors I see looking to converge in the fall of this year. (economy, social, political, military, global, etc) “As noted by Tooze, we now face a series of significant challenges, and a) they’re hitting us all at once, and b) several of them reinforce and worsen each other. Also notable is the fact that there’s great uncertainty associated with some of them.”

Read the article here -

https://americafirstreport.com/the-impending-polycrisis-of-doom/
____________________________________

NORMALLY Friday is the temperature gauge. I set it up when levels of activity were lower so one could keep track of longer term trends. In virtually all categories, things have been pressing the red zone, so i’m not going to do this for a while and assess its usefulness in the future.

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

In the next few days, the first farmed insects will arrive at a new massive cricket-processing facility in London, Ont. At full capacity, Aspire Food Group’s facility is expected to house four billion crickets and produce 13 million kilograms of the insect each year at what’s believed to be the biggest cricket-specific processing facility in the world.
This week, the Canadian government announced it was investing up to $8.5 million into Aspire’s London facility.
The plant comes with lofty goals. The chief executive officer hopes it will help tackle the planet’s food insecurity problems.

OBSERVATION - Part of the effort to remove meat (cattle, sheep, pigs, etc) from the menu.

French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a humiliating setback in parliament after his vaccine passport scheme was defeated. Macron’s minority government wanted to extend the policy whereby anyone entering France has to show proof of vaccination or a negative Covid test.
However, the right-wing populist National Rally (RN), the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) and the right-wing Republicans (LR) all united to vote against the policy.

OBSERVATION - Push back on the ‘vaccine’ idea. The idea of a global passport / credit system that these passports were beta tests for have resulted in a lot of push back now that people have had time to think it though absent the insanity of the wuhan mania.

______________________________

Wuhan virus -

In a study published in EconPapers, John Gibson, Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand found that age groups most likely to have had booster Covid injections had 7-10% more excess mortality than the age groups most likely not to have taken up a booster dose. The primary Covid “vaccine” used in New Zealand is Pfizer. Weekly data on all deaths in New Zealand, from 2011 through the end of March 2022, was used to calculate excess mortality during the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.

OBSERVATION - One more study to add to the list

The FDA just approved the Novavax vaccine for COVID under EUA. It won’t be available until the CDC outside committee approves it. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is scheduled to meet July 19.

OBSERVATION - Im currently neutral regarding this new vaccine. Some are already questioning it in part due to the loss of credibility the FDA and CDC earned during the wuhan debacle so far.

A Toronto-area casket manufacturer has seen a dramatic rise in orders for smaller-sized coffins since the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. Children are dying.

OBSERVATION - This is one of those keep and eye on it stories. Though there could be other reasons (may be he has good marketing or prices) this does parallel other accounts of documented excess mortality as well as increased life insurance payouts.

A District Court judge in Ohio granted a temporary injunction Thursday on the Air Force’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for all of the branch’s members requesting a religious exemption.
U.S. District Court Judge Matthew McFarland, of the Southern District of Ohio, granted the 14-day injunction in the case of Doster v. Kendall, giving the government seven days to respond and explain “why this Court should not grant a class-wide preliminary injunction,” according to the court order.

IN RELATED At least 260,000 American troops — or about 13 percent of the 2.1 million total force — are not fully vaccinated despite a Biden administration vaccine mandate for the military, and many of them could face discharge. Only about 20,000 of the more than 260,000 have received a temporary or permanent exemption, according to the latest statistics provided by the services. That means the rest face discharge from the military at a time the services are struggling to find new recruits.

OBSERVATION - Remember, the military only authorized to mandate the use of the Pfizer Cormarity vaccine - a vaccine never produced. This after the SecDef came down with wuhan after two primary and two booster jabs.

New York State’s COVID-19 measures that required people infected with or exposed to highly contagious communicable diseases to quarantine are a violation of state law, a judge ruled. The New York Isolation and Quarantine procedures, known as Rule 2.13, were enacted in February.

OBSERVATION - Slowly but surely wuhan tyranny being put in its place by courts. This will make it more difficult for unilateral orders in the future to be accepted as legal - thus creating an increased potential for civici confrontation.
______________________________

Economy -

Inflation hit hard at the wholesale level in June, as producer prices surged a near-record amount from a year ago due to a big jump in energy costs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
The producer price index, a measure of the prices received for final demand products, increased 11.3% from a year ago, the highest reading since the record 11.6% in March.

Of that gain, almost 90% came from a 10% increase in final demand energy costs as prices for oil, natural gas and other products soared during the month. Excluding energy, as well as food and trade service prices, so-called core PPI rose 6.4% on a 12-month basis, a deceleration from the 6.8% gain in May.

OBSERVATION - The increase at the wholesale level indicates that the next months CPI will remain at e/near 40 record levels. The administration bleat that wholesale inflation rate was due to fuel is obfuscation - those fuel costs travel downward to the consumer in the following months.

FOR THE RECORD - Last December, when inflation was 6.8%, Biden reassured Americans that inflation had peaked

This is according to Heritage Foundation research fellow, E.J. Antoni, the average American worker has lost $3,400 in annual wages due to skyrocketing inflation under Biden, while the average family with both parents working has seen a $6,800 pay cut.
IN RELATED According to a report from the Associated Press, more Americans are being overwhelmed by inflation and visiting food banks to make ends meet. “The food banks, which had started to see some relief as people returned to work after pandemic shutdowns, are struggling to meet the latest need even as federal programs provide less food to distribute, grocery store donations wane and cash gifts don’t go nearly as far,” AP reports.

OBSERVATION - Even cash gifts to food banks are failing as food costs have cut into what they can buy.

The membership of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen voted overwhelmingly Tuesday to authorize a strike if progress on a new labor contract isn’t made by the end of the week.
The union is one of 13 rail worker unions negotiating a national labor contract after the previous contract expired in 2019.
The vote comes days before a federally mandated “cooling off period” between the unions and rail carriers is set to expire, after the two sides failed in June to reach an agreement before the National Mediation Board. If the unions go on strike, it would bring freight rail traffic to a halt. Around 28% of U.S. freight is moved by rail, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

OBSERVATION - This would be a ‘train wreck’ that would have deep impact to the wobbly economy. Unions are notoriously pro-leftist and this could be their opportunity to contribute to the economic chaos the current democrat regime has started.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday she did not expect the U.S. economy to tip into a recession, but growth would “absolutely” slow down and gasoline prices were unlikely to fall anytime soon.
“I don’t think we’re (going to) have a recession. Consumer spending is very strong. Investment spending is solid,” she told a New York Times Dealbook event.

OBSERVATION - Take what Yellen is saying with a shot of whiskey. She was completely off in regards to inflation last year, she is complete off on recession this time as well. She is spreading the hopium to keep the masses calm prior to midterms. A declared recession before November would be just another nail in the coffin of the democrat majority in congress.

Alignable’s Small Business Revenue Report comes out today and the news is troubling. The report is based on a poll of 4,392 randomly selected small business owners conducted from 6/10/22 to 7/13/22, along with historic data from 680,000 surveyed since March 2020. Some highlights:
* 47% of small business owners (SMBs) say they’re businesses are at risk of closing by Fall of ’22, unless economic conditions improve significantly
* That’s up 12 percentage points from last summer, when only 35% were concerned about economic issues forcing them to shut down

OBSERVATION - Many noted that the wuhan closures targeted the small businesses as ‘nonessential’ while letting big corporations like WalMart and Target stay open, an effort to kill off these businesses. Now before they could even recover from the shut down, the economy is tanked largely due to inflation. The collapse of small business does not bode well for the future of the economy as they employ a substantial number of Americans.

Truckers in California are organizing protests against a state trucking employment law. Harbor Trucking Association members are demonstrating at major California ports. Los Angeles port officials are concerned about supply chain congestion and are calling on railways and importers to remove cargo. Rail service disruptions such as the BNSF embargo have caused heavy backlogs at the port, where 29,000 rail containers have stacked up on the docks, where only 9,000 should be.

OBSERVATION - Combined with a rail strike, supply issues could skyrocket to even works conditions than seen earlier this year. With no place to put cargo - port operations would be forced to essentially come to a halt.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

In a record-breaking drug bust, the Drug Enforcement Administration said on Thursday it seized approximately 1 million fake pills containing fentanyl in Inglewood, California, earlier this month.
The counterfeit pills were seized on July 5 during a raid of a home tied to a Los Angeles-area drug trafficking organization believed to be linked to Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the DEA said. The seizure is the largest ever made by the DEA in California, according to the agency. The fake pills have an estimated street value of $15-$20 million dollars.

OBSERVATION - Drug cartels will be taking over the border as biden ceases immigration enforcement.

via Fox News:
Republicans on the House Homeland Security Committee want answers about a new Department of Homeland Security policy that lawmakers say requires them to get privacy release waivers from criminal non-citizens accused of terror and assassination plots, in order for DHS to give them information about the threats.
In a letter to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, obtained by Fox News Digital, Republicans on the committee say the agency “has implemented a new policy requiring Members of Congress to obtain signed privacy release waivers from criminal non-U.S. citizens, including those illegally in the United States, and submit that waiver to the Department before the Department will provide the Committee with general information about the threats posed by such individuals.”
They say the policy was communicated to them after they requested briefings about two alleged plots. The first was an alleged ISIS-inspired plot to assassinate former President George W. Bush, and the second an alleged July 4 mass shooting plot by two illegal immigrants.
“It is unconscionable that DHS would implement or maintain any policy or practice to directly or indirectly inhibit Congress’s ability to conduct timely, highly relevant oversight that may require legislative action,” the letter by Reps. John Katko, R-NY, August Pfluger, R-Texas, and Mayra Flores, R-Texas, says.

OBSERVATION - biden et al closing down information to republicans (and congess in general)- an unconscionable move. “Privacy release wavers” pluhease
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

After receiving the Presidential Medal of Honor, Joe Biden turned around and shook hands with a ghost.
President Isaac Herzog assisted feeble Joe and helped him walk over to a chair.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

House democrats are trying to maneuver an assault weapons ban through congress under the radar as much as possible.

Leftist/terror organization “Ruth Sent Us” appears to have lost steam. They have been banned from Twitter for advocating violence. For now at least they still have their TikTok site but without Twitter it will be harder to organize protests. Other affiliated pro abort groups seem to be stepping up to take its place though.

___________________________________

China -

A rapidly increasing number of disgruntled Chinese homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished construction projects, exacerbating the country’s real estate woes and stoking fears that the crisis will spread to the wider financial system.
Homebuyers have stopped mortgage payments on at least 100 projects in more than 50 cities as of Wednesday, according to researcher China Real Estate Information Corp. That’s up from 58 projects on Tuesday and only 28 on Monday, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analysts including Shujin Chen.
IN RELATED - The latest numbers out from China show a slowing economy. Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at an annualized growth rate of just 0.4%, the lowest since 1992 (except for the COVID contraction). That’s down from Q1’s 4.8%, a significant slowdown. The Chinese central bank has also been implementing policies to stave off a potential financial crisis led by the collapse of the real estate market.

OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue to worsen, creating more instability act could cost Xi his position.

China is readying to implement quotas that will decrease phosphates exports by 45% compared to last year. China is the world’s largest phosphates exporter and is responsible for about 30% of the world’s supply. If these reports are accurate, roughly 15% of the world’s phosphates will soon be off the market.

____________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Putin will hold an operational meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council today, July 15,

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that another unspecified volunteer group deployed to Ukraine. The volunteer group is likely part of one of the four Akhmat volunteer battalions that Kadyrov announced on June 26

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia’s operational pause largely continued, with limited Russian ground assaults along the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient. Russia’s campaign of attacks on residential areas in Ukrainian cities continues. Seems the volume of artillery has dropped overnight. Russia still targets most of the LOC in the east, most likely to interfere with Ukranian force deployments and logistical resupply.

Link to map produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. The small territorial gain in eastern Ukraine is evident.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued to carry out air, artillery, and missile strikes on Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements. A S-300 missile hit at Holodna Hora in Kharkiv. Part of an ongoing and increasing use of the AD missiles in a ground attack mode.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian troops appear to be regrouping for Siversk offensive. Russian artillery and air strikes continue in an effort to disrupt Ukrainan resupply and defensive preparations.

Along the northern margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient Russian forces continued artillery fire and attempted to press closer to Siversk by attacking Verkhnokamyanske.

Russian forces continued to attack settlements southeast of Bakhmut with artillery.

Crimea Front ———
Russian missiles hit 2 universities in Mykolaiv this morning

The Ukrainian Main Military Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces established an ammunition depot at the Kherson City Drama Theater and are likely continuing to move ammunition depots to historic landmarks in an attempt to defend equipment and manpower from Ukrainian strikes.

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported that Russian forces began hiding military equipment in residential buildings and confirmed that Ukrainian forces destroyed two ammunition depots in Melitopol

The Kherson Oblast Administration confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian command posts and one helipad in Nova Kakhovka on July 13, and social media footage showed massive explosions in the area.

Russian forces also continued to launch missiles at Mykolaiv City, reportedly with S-300 air-defense systems in ground attack mode.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian aircraft attempted to attack Snake Island, but completely failed to hit the island with ordinance. This is not the first instance of such poor bomb delivery, earlier after the Russian withdrawl from the island, Russia attempted to destroy abandoned equipment via airstrikes, with only one bomb out of four hitting the island.
.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory - ——
Rescue crews are responding to reports of an explosion in Grayvoron, Belgorod, cause is a possible Ukrainian artillery strike. However, the Russians have been having numerous Iskander missile failures lately.

Partisan Resistance ——
Nothing significant to report

Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW ——-
Explosion reported at Russian base/ HQ in Snihurivka of Mykolaiv region and Nova Mayachka
Explosions reported near Kherson
Russian ammunition warehouses are still burning after explosion overnight in Kadiivka
Locals report explosions in Chaplynka, Kherson region. 100+km behind front line. Russians set up a helicopter base at an abandoned airfield in Chaplynka.
UKR HIMARS strike on HQ in occupied Snigurivka (Mykolaiv Oblast)

This current ‘pause’ is shaping up like the similar one after the withdrawal from the north. Analysts are looking at the combat quality and readiness of filler personnel and are questioning their capability for war. Other assessments are being made about Russia’s ability to continue the massive artillery attacks. Tens of thousands of rounds per day were estimated to be shot. With those levels, physics kicks in with warped barrels, and other equipment defects that will greatly reduce the accuracy of the systems. Throwing that many rounds down range is gonna hit something, but then it places a severe stress on the already taxed logistics supply system. In the current level of Russian tactics, rolling artillery barrages level objectives and defenses that allow the much smaller Russian ground forces to move upon.

The following map is still good to orient where the action is an projected new objectives -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXhdA4QXEAMlGTY?format=jpg&name=medium

___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
.
Nord Stream 1 is supposed to come back on line July 22, with some European pendants saying could be the most important day of the year.

____________________________________

Israel -

biden meeting with abbas today in East Jerusalem.

Biden in his remarks “We will provide an additional $100 million to support a Palestinian hospital network”
Biden has disappointed the Palestinians by stating during his trip to the region that there are no prospects for Palestinian statehood in the near term. He said at a press conference alongside Abbas that the “ground is not ripe” for restarting peace talks. Biden reiterated the US position that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, and that it continues to be the policy of the United States that the specific boundaries of sovereignty in Jerusalem must be resolved through final status negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians

Mahmoud Abbas at press-conference with Biden: The key to peace in the region is recognition of the State of Palestine and enabling the Palestinian people to obtain their legitimate rights. We look forward to US efforts to stop settlements and settler violence. Israeli incursions and arrests of Palestinian territories must be stopped. We seek to achieve a comprehensive and just peace based on international legitimacy and the Arab Peace Initiative

____________________________________

Iraq -

Muqtada al-Sadr - It is not possible to form a new Iraqi government with the presence of uncontrolled weapons, so I call on all forces to dissolve the armed factions. Sadr also calls for the popular mobilization to be kept away from foreign interference.

OBSERVATION - Sadr speaking against Iranian backed militias causing political turmoil. Though religiously aligned with Iran, Sadr is far more nationalist. Iraq’s government crisis will continue.
_________________________________

Misc of Note -

Monkey Pox still in the news -
The World Health Organization said Tuesday that it will convene a second emergency meeting next week to decide if monkeypox poses a global health threat as cases rise to 9,200.
The U.N. agency declined last month to declare a global emergency in response to monkeypox. But as infections have risen substantially over the last several weeks, the organization is expected to consider whether to issue its highest alert when the emergency committee reconvenes next week.

9200 cases in a world of nearly 8 billion . . . . .

________________________________

Economy -

The current U.S. Misery Index stands at a very miserable 12.66%. Still shy of the peak of 21.98% under Carter, but are trending higher.

Over the first half of 2022, 1,411 American workplaces filed union-organizing petitions with the National Labor Relations Board—the highest mark since 2015, reports the Wall Street Journal. While the petition activity represents a 69% surge over 2021, union membership hovers near historic lows, with only 10.3% of U.S. workers belonging to unions. In 1964, almost 30% did, according to university research cited by the Journal.

OBSERVATION - Tight labor markets and failing wages can drive some of this as for some employees it can be sold as the only way for them to gain control of their work environment, conditions and wages. The unions then take advantage of this and turn int into new unions, with new monies coming into the political coffers. Unions seek power and we will see starting this Monday how vicious they are in wanting that power if the rail roads go on strike.

Wells Fargo & Co said on Friday its second-quarter profit nearly halved as the bank set aside more funds to cover potential loan losses, while its mortgage lending business came under pressure from higher interest rates. Under an accounting standard that took effect in 2020, banks must factor the economic outlook into loan loss reserves. Last year, the bank had released $1.6 billion from its reserves for loan losses as the economy rebounded from the pandemic.

Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo told reporters that retail and business customers remain strong, but the bank is prepared for a potential economic downturn. “Things will probably get worse, but that’s already included in the overall scenario analysis and the allowance level we have for the quarter,” Santomassimo said.

OBSERVATION - Flush with all those new home loans, now threatened by a recession / job losses that could cause a flood of loan defaults, WF is hedging its bets. I expect to see other banks / loan institutions do the same in the coming weeks.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) issued a conservation appeal for 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday. It comes as Dallas and other cities saw triple-digit temperatures. According to the news release, one of the reasons for the conservation appeal and possible grid disruption is due to “low wind,” and it noted: “Wind generation is currently generating less than what is historically generated in this time period.”
Poor solar power generation is also a factor, the release stated. “Developing cloud cover in West Texas has reduced the amount of solar generation,” the operator wrote.

OBSERVATION - This is a harbinger of the desired future the democrats want for America. Unreliable energy kills the economic engine of the country. Texas has seen the folly of their ‘green’ power in the winter, now seeing the great ‘benefits’ of it during a summer.

Housing market is seeing some serous changes. In Sacramento Kalifornia, one of the hottest markets last year, media prices have dropped substantially. On the flip side, interest rates for loans have doubled, averaging 6%. So even with lower home prices, mortgage payments could be hard to make because of the higher interest rate.

OBSERVATION - With a recession, many who purchased in the past couple of years will find themselves way under water with their mortgage. This will vex families trying to leave liberal hell holes like Kalifornia for friendlier climes.

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

biden laughed off criticism that he shouldn’t have fist-bumped the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who is believed to have ordered the gruesome 2018 murder of Saudi dissident and Washington Post writer Jamal Khashoggi.

Biden became the first US President to visit East Jerusalem despite warnings from US congress members that such a move would be a “sign of continued support” for the Palestinian Authority and lend credence to the PA’s “illegitimate efforts to claim” the region.

OBSERVATION - biden’s initial meetings in Israel and SA have been viewed as underwhelming by most global observers. Nothing meaningful being seen as coming out of them.

Harris’ second chief speechwriter is bailing after only four months on the job.

OBSERVATION - Wait - what? You mean some one was paid to have the gobbly-gook word salad speeches written for her?
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

RiseUp4AbortionRights, one of the pro-abortion groups that has sprung to life following the overthrow of Roe, has been linked to the Revolutionary Communist Party (RCP). Observers are noting that leadership for both organizations are intermixed as well as funding to a degree.

OBSERVATION - This should come as no surprise. Any leftist group today will have ties to the communists and communism.

House Democrats on July 13 voted to add an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual military spending bill, to identify “neo-Nazis” in the military and law enforcement.
The NDAA amendment was sponsored by Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and instructs the FBI, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Department of Defense (DOD) to publish a report analyzing “white supremacist and neo-Nazi activity” within military and law enforcement.
If the amendment is passed by the Senate, the FBI, DHS, and DOD would be required within 180 days to send Congress a report on the number of people discharged from either military service or law enforcement for “white supremacist” or “neo-Nazi” ideology.
The bill caught the ire of Sen Rand Paul. Though that bill was “ostensibly” about domestic terrorism, Paul said, the bill “would be more accurately called ‘the Democrat plan to brand and insult our police and soldiers as white supremacists and neo-Nazis.’”
“These are young men and women who have given arms and legs and … I don’t know of an example of some guy who says, ‘Oh yeah, we were blown up by an IED but we’ve got to leave that guy because he’s of a different race,’” Paul continued. “How insulting!”
Paul said the bill would create a task force to investigate American soldiers by reading their emails, tracking their web browser history, and implying that they’re guilty until they can prove themselves innocent.
“This bill is an insult to every police officer in this country. This bill is an insult to everyone in our armed services,” Paul said.

OBSERVATION - Same drill, anyone who opposes the current regime’s dictates is considered to be a “white supremacist and neo-Nazi”. This just furthers the goal of marking opposition within the military / law enforcement so that if the regime puts the hammer down, these elements will be among the first to be put down. NOTE ALSO - involves those ‘discharged’ for those ‘ideolgies’. Most likely will extend to others discharged who had anti-left views but were not discharged because of them.

___________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

The US embarrassed itself on the world stage by sending the two highest profile trannies to France to represent the nation on a diplomatic mission. This is biden’s vision for America.

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has maintained his opposition to a scaled-back version of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion “Build Back Better” budget reconciliation bill, due to inflationary concerns.
RELATED - Biden responded with a statement after Thursday’s night’s development that West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin wanted to wait next month’s inflation figures before agreeing to a deal with his party’s leadership on Biden’s key agenda items. ‘Action on climate change and clean energy remains more urgent than ever. So let me be clear: if the Senate will not move to tackle the climate crisis and strengthen our domestic clean energy industry, I will take strong executive action to meet this moment,’ Biden said.

OBSERVATION - Congressional leftist heads are exploding as we speak. EOs will be weak, and biden may continue the congressional run around via regulation changes and associated court dodging to get his way. Increasing regulations has been a more productive attack vector by the left over the past couple years.

NOTE - putting this here because it can fit into multiple categories.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) says. “Equating the security threat of climate change to [that of] China, that’s a real problem. That’s not even something you should gloss over. That is a cultural problem, all the way to the top,”
Rep. Roy lists just some the ways that woke issues have permeated every corner of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) - from West Point teaching Army cadets that they need to “address Whiteness,” to the Navy and Marines all instituting their own woke policies.

OBSERVATION - I’m liking Congressman Roy more and more. Though there are good speakers on the right in congress, he kind of put the cookies within reach. Very down to earth. When having our military are forced march around in high heels and attend woke agenda training instead of training to fight the next war, there are clearly serious problems.

House Democrats have passed two measures that would codify abortion into federal law to counter the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v Jackson, which returned the power to regulate abortions to the states.
The first bill, titled the Women’s Health Protection Act, was written to shield health care providers and mothers seeking to terminate the life of pre-born children from any state restrictions. The legislation passed in a 219-to-210 vote with zero support from Republicans.
The second bill is titled Ensuring Access to Abortion Act and would protect mothers who cross state lines from receiving any penalties for breaking state laws. The measure passed 223 to 205.

OBSERVATION - These bills are nothing more than an effort to get out the vote for democrats. Not sure at this stage their viability in the Senate.

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Recent General Accountability Office (GAO) notes that many American airplanes are not ready to fly in a mission-capable fashion. They are likely grounded due to maintenance problems, lack of spare parts, or just general wear and tear. One statistic jumps out from the report. of the Air Force’s 186 F-22s in service, only 93 are currently combat effective.

The GAO report warns that “Neither the Air Force nor the Navy have completed mitigation plans to remedy maintenance challenges, risks, or related impacts identified in any sustainment reviews. As a result, the Air Force and Navy cannot fully address unit-level aviation maintenance challenges affecting aircraft availability required for training and operations.”

OBSERVATION - Aircraft readiness (and other equipment in general) has been a problem in the past but has gotten worse with budget constraints and money that should have gone to training and maintenance being diverted to woke causes.
_________________________________

China -

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr ordered the transport ministry to renegotiate loan agreements struck by his predecessor with China for railway projects worth US$4.9 billion (S$6.86 billion), an official said on Saturday (July 16).
Transportation Undersecretary Cesar Chavez said the official development assistance loan agreements for the three projects were considered “withdrawn” after the Chinese government “failed to act on the funding requests” made by the government of then President Rodrigo Duterte.
Mr Chavez said other funding options were also being considered for the projects worth 276 billion Philippine pesos (S$6.86 billion): the Subic-Clark Railway Project, the Philippine National Railways South Long-Haul Project and the Davao-Digos segment of the Mindanao Railway Project.

OBSERVATION - This is a pattern for China, get involved funding projects in small countries and then call the note in when those countries cannot pay the bill - essentially ceding control of those project to China.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Evidence that the operational ‘pause’ is nearing an end, Russian Defence Minister Shoigu ordered to increase military activity in Ukraine on all directions. It said Shoigu “gave the necessary instructions to further increase the actions of groups in all operational areas in order to exclude the possibility of the Kyiv regime launching massive rocket and artillery strikes on civilian infrastructure and residents of settlements in Donbas and other regions”.
The ministry said Shoigu had issued his order after listening to reports at a command centre from generals leading the “South” and “Centre” command groups of Russian forces operating in Ukraine, as well as other commanders.
NOTE - see link to map below under Ukraine 24 hr roundup for the locations of these commands.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Reportedly an 81-person detachment of Russian military volunteers of the 263-person South Uralets Battalion reportedly left Chelyabinsk on July 15 for an accelerated training course in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT -
According to the Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, Russian military attachés in the EU were ordered to recruit policemen and civilians involved in the transportation of weapons for Ukraine.
NOTE - This could become important if Russia is planning covert attacks on convoys or actually openly attacks them. Could also be a method of gathering intel on just what and how much is headed to Ukraine, where it will enter the country and potential routes and storage sites in Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
This is the apparent calm before the storm in the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient. Some analysts see evidence that the offensive could resume within days given that about 10 days have passed since the inferred start of the pause. This due largely to the pressure Russian commanders have received to resume the offense and not allow the tempo to switch to the Ukranians. Western analysts consider 10 days to be insufficient to fully regenerate Russian forces for large-scale offensive operations.

Russia launched more aggressive missile attacks at cities in Ukraine, most of which reportedly hit civilian / residential targets.

Conventional artillery attacks seem to have tapered way back - more seemingly to harass rather than support a ground attack.

Link to map produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More air and artillery strikes around the region. 3 people killed, 3 wounded, with a school and a store destroyed as result of Russian missile strike in Chuhuiv.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Scattered Russian artillery and air strikes around the margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient . Additional scattered artillery / air strikes along the LOC to the west. Only significant ground attack by Russia overnight in the area were a series of limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, southeast of Bakhmut,

Crimea Front ———
Odesa hit with missile attacks overnight.
Russian artillery along the Mykolaiv - Kherson border.
Explosions reported near Kherson - suspected logistics site.
.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Major Russian missile strikes against Dnipro overnight. Ukraine ADA shot down some but many found their target. Russia is believed to have used the Kh-101 air launched cruse missiles in the attack that killed several civilians.

Russia also launched missile attacks against Kostiantynivka.

Russian Territory - ——
Explosions reported overnight at Skarhivka village of Kreminna Oblast.

Reports of 2 missiles launched from Belgorod towards Kharkiv, but both failed.
NOTE - Russian source, increasing numbers of reported missile failures of Iskander missile launches from Belgorod.

Partisan Resistance ——
Nothing significant to report

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Explosions reported near Kherson - suspected logistics site.

OUTLOOK ——
This “operational pause” is going to come to an end sometime soon. The assumption is that the Russians will likely launch a larger-scale and more determined offensive along the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut line soon, but there are no indications yet of how soon that attack will begin or exactly where it will focus.
Current thoughts are that Russian may focus on the northern and southern margin of the salient and push to close it off, in a manner similar to the way they captured Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The major difference is that Ukraine is now in a better tactical position and not extended into a pocket with exposed supply lines.
However, it is critical for Russia to regain the offensive advantage before Ukraine can establish its counter defensive measures.

The Russians seem to have reduced their conventional artillery action. Most likely to conserve rounds for the next attack phase or because Ukrainan missile strikes on ammo dumps have created a significant shortage - or both.

Reports, noted yesterday, that Russia is moving ammo dumps into cultural and residential areas is very disturbing. This is a deliberate act counter to the ‘accepted’ rules of war, rules Russia tossed in the waste can at the start.

The following map is still good to orient where the action is an projected some of the new objectives, but add to it Bakhmet to the south. -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXhdA4QXEAMlGTY?format=jpg&name=medium

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Nothing in the news, seems the threat / pressure has decreased.
___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
.
G20 finance ministers leave talks divided over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
According to Reuters, the G20 finance ministers reached a “strong consensus” on global food security during two-day talks in Indonesia. However, they failed to issue a formal communique due to disagreements over how to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
____________________________________

Israel -

Hamas launched several rockets out of Gaza towards Israel shortly after biden departed for Saudi Arabia. In total, 4 rockets were launched from Gaza tonight, 1 was intercepted. Later, Israel AF struck Hamas rocket manufacturing site as well as a training base.

OBSERVATION - It appears that Hamas was trying to make some kind of statement about the US/Israel meetings that had just occurred. This latest exchange does not appear to be headed to an out of control war.
____________________________________

Iran -

China Vice FM Ma Zhaoxu had an “in depth” phone conversation with Iran Dep FM and chief negotiator Bagheri Kani, discussing Iranian nuclear issues, per a Chinese diplomat in Tehran.

OBSERVATION - China is seizing the opportunity to move into the Middle East due to the vacuum of power created by the US’ foreign policy mess. Iran sees another vehicle to by pass current and future sanctions - along the lines of the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ track.
__________________________________

Iraq -

Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi met in Jeddah on Saturday according to Iraqi state media. They agreed on close cooperation in military and security affairs between the two countries.

The President of the UAE and the Prime Minister of Iraq discussed relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them on the sidelines of the Jeddah Summit for Security and Development.

_________________________________

Syria -

The Commander-in-Chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi said there are efforts from the Russian side to stop the Turkish military operation, and we are ready to confront any attack on our areas.
This time, we will not be alone in this battle. All people of the region are ready, the Syrian army is ready too, and any individual who is Jealous for the Syrian soil
In June Turkey launched 1.360 attacks against our areas

OBSERVATION - Northern Syria continues to be a potential explosive scenario between Turks and Russian forces. So far they have avoided direct combat - allowing their proxies to do it for them. Now with a substantial amount of Russian soldiers pulled out for Ukraine, the situation is becoming less stable.
__________________________________

A little late, sorry.
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The Biden administration’s international tax agenda suffered a setback when Sen. Manchin rejected a 15% minimum tax on multinational companies this past week, dimming prospects of turning last year’s global tax agreement into reality. Biden administration officials had planned to use Democratic fiscal legislation to enact the U.S. piece of the deal struck last year by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and more than 130 other countries. They wanted quick action to set a 15% minimum tax on U.S.-based multinational companies in each country where they operate, a move aimed at showing international leadership and prodding other countries to follow suit.
IN RELATED - -The United States will look for every opportunity to move ahead and enact a global minimum corporate tax agreement despite the opposition of a key Democratic senator, Joe Manchin, to raising corporate taxes, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. Manchin’s opposition could imperil passage of legislation that would commit the United States to a 15% global minimum corporate tax, a key part of an agreement that Yellen helped negotiate with nearly 140 countries last year.

OBSERVATION-
“Taxation without representation” That 15% will come out of your pockets folks as passed thru costs.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently published an article claiming that the current global economic crisis is a great opportunity for the world to transition to using more renewable energy sources, which they say is the key to protecting both the economy and democracy.
The article was written by Edward Barbier, a “university distinguished professor” of economics at Colorado State University. Barbier claimed that the world is facing the twin crises of climate change and the global decline in democracy, and that these two crises “have come to a head in recent years.” (Related: World Economic Forum deletes article claiming ESH will make Sri Lanka rich by 2025.)
Barbier argued that transition to green energy is key to both tackling climate change and creating sustainable economies, both of which are necessary for countries to safeguard civil liberties and have greater political rights.
“Collective action on a green energy transition is thereby not only good for the climate but also vital for protecting democracy,” wrote Barbier.

OBSERVATION -
The mantra continues -“green energy” is the savior of the world. Yet everywhere it has been applied in any amount , such as Germany, Texas, England, etc it has been an abysmal failure. Climate change is the lie that has been repeated so much the sheeple just nod their heads. I see that the current status quo of green energy push back will be hit when the world declares a global ‘emergency’ like the wuhan one to go around and over opposition to forcefully place these goals in place.

______________________________

Wuhan virus -

Columbia University researchers found the death rate from Spike Protein Syndrome (SPS) is much higher than the Centers for Disease Continuance (CDC) claims, revealing at least 10 times the number of deaths the CDC says have resulted from the jabs. That total is now approaching half-a-million deaths from SPS, not just 20,000 or so.
Research conducted by scientists found that spike proteins injected into the body and created by mRNA “technology” enter the bloodstream and travel to all parts of the body. As mRNA injections reprogram human cells to continuously produce the spike protein prions, they continue accumulating throughout the body.

OBSERVATION - SPS is the excuse the medical community has created to avoid direct association with the jab. Still waiting to see more studies (if ever) as current ones like the CU one are still heavily influenced by the branch covidians.

A respected virologist/immunologist named Dr Ann-Cathrin Engwall has written to the British Medical Journal to explain what the mysterious cause could actually be from Vaxzevria which is an adenovirus vector vaccine from AstraZeneca. Development of a new more pathogenic adenovirus could be caused by using adenovirus vector vaccines in large populations, and it is consistent with the facts available.

OBSERVATION - Another ‘vaccine’, another lethal side effect. AstraZeneca is not the mRNA designed vaccine created by Pfizer and Moderna, but a different approach. Apparently this doctor has seen a direct cause-effect relationship between AZ and the explosion of acute hepatitis (“adenovirus infections “) in children. What is infuriating about this is there was absolutely no need to vaccinate kids - the reactions from the jabs (of all kinds) we are now seeing as being more lethal and damaging than the disease itself.
______________________________

Economy -

Biden is facing an implosion of nuclear magnitude. What is he going to do about the looming national rail road strike set for Monday. Biden, who has touted himself as a champion of organized labor, is being put in a tough position because he doesn’t want to alienate union workers — whose votes are crucial in Rust Belt swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — but is also facing his biggest political challenge yet in containing high inflation, which would doubtlessly be worsened by supply chains fraying even further. He has two primary choices
1. Do nothing
2. He could choose to name a board of arbitrators to review the contract dispute — doing so would cause any strike or lockout to be delayed by 60 days under federal law, buying negotiators and the administration some time to resolve the situation.
Option 1 would be disastrous for the country, and for democrat hopes for the midterms. It is likely that Biden will assemble the board to help work the situation out and avoid a strike, at least for the next 60 days, according to Greg Regan, president of the Transportation Trades Department at the AFL-CIO. My gut says that his administration will be sluggish in implementing this option.

OBSERVATION-

Confusion continues about who ordered power outages Wednesday evening in SouthTexas, and why.
On Thursday, neither American Electric Power Texas nor ERCOT would tell 3NEWS who ordered Wednesday’s power outages in the communities of Kenedy, Sinton, and Pettus. That’s important because AEP Texas said it was working with ERCOT, but ERCOT said it did not order any local outages — only voluntary conservation.

OBSERVATION - SMH. Shutting off power in the midst of a heatwave with little to no warning is a dangerous and lethal operation. What bothers me more is the incompetence of the ERCOT operators. They were screwed up in their preparation and response for the blizzard a couple years ago, and they must still have the same homers working there now.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

U.S. Border Patrol reported processing migrants 191,898 times along the southern border in June, a nearly 14% drop from May, when the agency carried out over 222,000 apprehensions, an all-time monthly high. The previous record for June was reported last year, when Border Patrol carried out 178,649 arrests.
A fourteen percent drop is good, however, record numbers of migrants are coming from beyond Mexico and the Northern Triangle. People are showing up at the southern border from countries around the world. The number of repeat offenders making multiple illegal crossings is increasing.

OBSERVATION - Illegal traffic just this partial FY alone, has exceeded the FY traffic of all previous years - and we still have several months to go. BTW - the drop in crossings in this time frame is common due to summer heat and not any enforcement of the laws by either Mexico or the US.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Fox News host Tucker Carlson has claimed that President Joe Biden takes ‘pills’ to boost his cognitive performance before public appearances.
Biden, 79, has strenuously rejected similar allegations in the past, but Carlson claimed on his Friday evening show that he had spoken ‘directly’ to a witness who saw the alleged medication on the 2020 campaign trail.
‘His staff, supervised by Dr. Jill, his wife, was giving him pills before every public appearance. Checking the time, and at the certain hour giving him a dose of something,’ said Carlson.

OBSERVATION - The release of this information should not shock those who have loved ones with dementia related conditions. What is shocking is that this is increasingly coming out. IF biden is removed under the 25th amendment for mental issues, the big question that should be asked is at what point did he cease to be able to make legal decisions, with all actions afterwards being essentially void because he didn’t capabilities to make those decisions.

biden’s Saudi gaffs continue - “We’ll always honor the bravery and selfishness — selflessness of the — and sacrifices of the Americans who served, including my son, Major Beau Biden, who was stationed in Iraq for a year,”

Press reviews of biden’s middle east travels are in and largely negative . He did not have a single diplomatic breakthrough, an outcome analysts said was no surprise. On issues ranging from energy prices to human rights and Israel’s role in the region, Biden could point only to small — if any — gains after four whirlwind days of meetings and speeches.

OBSERVATION - Press continues it negative coverage of biden - an indicator of a move to lay the groundwork for his eventual stepping down?
MSM and members of his own party are turning against biden as mid-term elections in the U.S. are just weeks away now. The interwebs are full of pundits fror both sides suggesting that biden’s days are numbered. Among most of the discussions, the realization that should biden step down (either by ‘force’ or on his own) they would still be stuck with an equally stupid harris. So some speculation is a two step plan, get biden out even before the midterms ( and scapegoat him for the country’s ills), tell harris she can only be president for a short time and NOT run for election (or step down after a period), then get a VP in place under harris that will be the presidental candidate for 2024. Currently the list looks bleak for the democats on even this plan. Possibilities include hillary, Michelle 0bama, Newsome, Buttigieg, Warren and even the evil witch of the west - pelosi.
Ive noted before that the infighting that would erupt within the democrats would be epic and highly distracting for dems seeking reelection - most likely dooming them to being voted out. This democrat civil war of sorts will bring out their true colors for all to see.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa related groups maintained a relatively low profile, except for in their base cities like Portland etc. When the do have an action, turn out has been far less than what they desire.

___________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Two more B-2 Spirits arrived in Australia on July 12 in support of a bomber task force mission as U.S. Airmen trained alongside personnel from the Royal Australian Air Force.
The new bombers join two others that arrived July 10 at RAAF Base Amberley. All four B-2s are from the 509th Bomb Wing at Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo. The bombers’ deployment will help support the Enhanced Cooperation Initiative under the Force Posture Agreement first signed more than a decade ago by the U.S. and Australia.
_________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Items are piling up at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) in a sign that North Korea is “illicitly operating” some parts of the inter-Korean economic zone, South Korea’s unification ministry said Tuesday, a day after slamming the North for what it called improper use of South Korean assets.
The remarks come after the ROK military reported detecting the movement of unknown vehicles in the KIC earlier this year. According to a ministry official on Tuesday, South Korea has detected vehicles in the economic zone on multiple occasions since then.
“Recently, we have detected through various routes the movements of North Korean vehicles and items piling up at the complex,” the official said during a background briefing.
The ministry will “take necessary additional measures” with regard to South Korean assets at the KIC and tourist facilities at Mount Kumgang near the inter-Korean border, while monitoring North Korea’s further moves, the official added.
After Seoul suspended inter-Korean tourism cooperation in 2008 and economic cooperation at the KIC in 2016, South Korean companies were forced to abandon their assets in North Korea, which include vehicles, factory facilities and hotel buildings.

OBSERVATION - The KIC (located just inside the NK side of the border) was to be an effort to come to a common goal between the Koreas. South Korea has suspended operations at a jointly run industrial park in following the North’s nuclear tests. NK’s goals are uncertain, but the KIC has newer facilities and may be being retrofitted to meet NK’s economical requirements - likely on the high tech side.
__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Yesterday was the 8th anniversary of the Russian downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in the sky over Ukrainian controlled Donbas. All 298 passengers and crew members died. None of the Russians involved in the tragedy has yet borne responsibility.

Logistics -
- Though Iran claims there are no drones being purchased, evidence shows otherwise. These Iranian drones likely provide no capability that the Russian military does not already have in principle. The Russians should only need to obtain them from Iran because they’ve run out of their own systems and cannot build more in time.

Russian Personnel Issues -
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu indicated that Southern Group Commander General of the Army Sergey Surovikin and Central Group Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin will both continue to command forces on the Eastern Axis.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT -
Continued Ukranian discussions about an impending offensive into Kherson Oblast and cutting off supply routes from Crimea.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The use of NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) to track battles in Ukraine has been noted here before. It is particularly sensitive to fires largely caused by artillery / missile strikes. Forest fire management here in the US rely heavily on its data and it has been proven to be highly accurate. Analysts are examining the FIRMS data to confirm/deny two things. First, did/has Russia conducted an operational pause and second is there any evidence that the dump strikes have had any impact on the volume of Russian artillery.

Detected heat anomalies remotely sensed data decreased significantly in Donbas starting around July 10. The reduced number of observed heat anomalies also corresponds in part to the assessed Russian operational pause from July 6 – July 15. The number of observed heat anomalies began increasing on July 15 – the day Russian forces announced they were resuming their operational phase.

The intensity of Russian artillery attacks along the Slovyansk-Bakhmut axis in the coming days may clarify the degree to which the reduction in intensity was due to the operational pause or the result of Ukrainian attacks.

Current assessment is that yes, artillery fire did drop. What is needed comparison of pre-artillery dump strikes to present - to judge the impact of those HIMARS related strikes. Maps produced by the US based Institute for the Study of War below show the assessed FIRMS data for July 6th and July 14th for comparison.

https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NASA%20FIRMS%20July%206.jpg

https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NASA%20FIRMS%20July%2014.jpg

Link to map below produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Air and artillery strikes continue around the region. See-saw battles developing north of Kharkiv on a relatively small scale.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian probing attacks along the northern margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient . Scattered artillery / air strikes around the periphery of the salient.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, the Russian army is focusing on gaining control over the towns of Siversk and Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Crimea Front ———
More scattered Russian shelling along the Mykolaiv - Kherson border area.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is stripping units from other parts of the Crimea/ south Ukraine region and shifting them towards Kherson region.

Reports of a substantial number of Russian naval vessels operating on the eastern side of Crimea - closer to the Kerch Strait bridge. Assumptions are to either provide additional protection or to distance themselves from Ukrainan Harpoon systems that are beginning to dominate the western portion of the Black Sea.
.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile strikes across Ukraine,” says Ivano-Frankivsk Mayor Ruslan Martsinkiv.
Western, Central, and Eastern, Ukraine were hit overnight by Russian missiles. Explosions confirmed in Chyhyryn community of Cherkasy region, and Chuhuiv.

Russian Territory - ——
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance ——
Guerrilla leaflets in Kherson carry a straightforward message for the occupiers:
“russists are falling asleep, and a HIMARS is waking up”

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Missile strike destroyed a base at Trolleybus depot in Alchevsk.
Explosions reported at a suspected logistics site in Chaplynka and Chornobaivka of Kherson region.
Explosion reported at a warehouse in Lazurne

OUTLOOK ——
Watching the developments on the ground for confirmation of resumption the Russian offensive and what their current goals are. Russia’s response to Ukrainian announcements of an offensive into Kherson Oblast indicates that they are taking it seriously and are moving scarce troops from other sectors to bolster defenses there.

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Nothing in the news, seems the threat / pressure has decreased.
___________________________________

Poland -

Increasing NATO combat and intelligence aircraft operating in the vicinity of the town of Ełk, Poland about 65 km from the narrowest part of the Suwalki Gap. Russia has threatened to seize this gap to maintain ground access to Kaliningrad.

Pres. of PiS Jarosław Kaczyński has announced Poland aims to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. This comes on the heels of a decision to increase standing Polish military forces to around 300,000.

_____________________________________

Iran -

A recent intelligence leak report indicates that Iran is plotting to kill or capture former President Donald Trump as well as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, seeking to avenge the death of its beloved commander, Major General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a drone strike two years ago.

OBSERVATION - This is low hanging fruit for intelligence reports, Iran openly stated over a year ago that they were going after Trump and Pompeo for the death of Soleimani
__________________________________

Iraq -

The Iraqi political scene has been ablaze for the past 72 hours due to the emergence of recordings attributed to Nuri al-Maliki, the ex-Iraqi PM, in which he appears to be criticising and insulting Moqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s strongest Shiite political figures whose faction won big in the 2021 general parliamentary election.
“The issue is that there is a British project aiming to put Moqtada in control of the Shia and Iraq, then they would kill him and give Iraq to the Sunnis. The issue is not al-Maliki [myself], I can just leave and take refuge in the house of Malek and have 2000 fighters protecting me, no one will be able to get to me. That project exists, but I am fighting it, and it is to be fought politically and militarily,” said Nuri al-Maliki about his longtime political rival, Moqtada al-Sadr, in a leaked recording.
“Iran helped al-Sadr, to make him a new Nasrallah [Lebanese Hezbollah chief] in Iraq”, he continued in his tirade against the Shiite leader. “Moqtada is a murderer, how many did he kill in Baghdad? The kidnappings, the car bombs, he is not a master, he is a coward, a traitor, an ignorant who knows nothing (…) I know the Sadrists, I fought them in Basra, Karbala and Baghdad, we had no weapons and the Iranians had given them advanced missiles and we still won,” he said of al-Sadr and his followers.
Nuri al-Maliki, leader of the Shiite party known as the State of Law Coalition and one of the leaders of the Coordination Framework, a Shiite coalition currently holding parliamentary majority, denied the veracity of the recordings via Twitter. He said that the recordings, released on social media by journalist Ali Fadel, were fake. Moqtada al-Sadr, said that the recordings mean nothing.

OBSERVATION - Sadr is the power player in Iraq, having the majority of affiliated parties in power. Exposure of this kind of rhetoric will keep the Iraqi govt in turmoil for a considerable period as it is indicative of a potential limited civil war.
_________________________________

Saudi Arabia -

Saudi Arabia has announced it will increase its oil production capacity level to 13 million barrels a day, up from 10 million, after President Joe Biden’s visit to the kingdom, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insisted Saturday, in an address to the U.S.-Arab summit underway in Jeddah, that it will not be able to go any further than that.
“The kingdom has announced an increase in its production capacity level to 13 million barrels per day, after which the kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production,”

OBSERVATION - a drop in the bucket.

__________________________________

Central / South America General-

The United Nations human rights office has expressed concern about rising violence around Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, saying 99 people have been reported killed in recent fighting between rival gangs in the Cite Soleil district alone. The UN agencies said some gangs even deny access to drinking water and food in order to control the population, aggravating malnutrition.

OBSERVATION - Haiti is a hell hole that will never cease to be a hell hole. I mention things degenerating there because the root cause of the violence is lack of food and clean water. The gangs are just the outward expression of the shortages. Fast forward to the US in the indescribable future. What is happing in Haiti will be seen in America’s urban areas. In fact, some of the raids on stores and rampant shoplifting are “” examples of what will happen when things go sideways. See also the 2020 riots. It can happen here.
______________________________________

Libya -

Armed convoy headed from Al-Zawiya to Tripoli, reportedly to install Bashagha as PM, return Sanalla as NOC head and oust Dbeibah and his government
Libya - critical hours ahead as Tripoli forces loyal to unity government are mobilizing too.

OBSERVATION - Libya’s back on the menu boys. Pullout of Russian affiliated forces has destabilized the country and any resumption of the civil war may have outside impacts on oil prices.

_____________________________________

Misc of Note -

According to Mayor Eric Adams of New York City, Russia could now launch a nuclear weapon at residents. Adamas said New Yorkers need to “pack a bag” and “know where your medicines are located” just in case.
“Let’s be prepared,” Adams stated, referring to a public service announcement (PSA) video that the Big Apple released the other day with advice about what to do in the event of a radioactive blast. The emergency management agency put out a 90-second PSA weeks after Russian state media claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin could wipe out the United States.
The bizarre timing of the video is raising questions, with one official simply saying: ‘We really didn’t want to put this off.”

OBSERVATION - Monitoring this interestingly timed PSA. Remote chance that the GGR is telegraphing its next move.

____________________________________

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.