I am on the road tomorrow and most of Wednesday. I expect to be back on line fully by Thursday.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
See China below - using the wuhan app as a social credit population control beta run.
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Wuhan virus -
Schumer has tested positive for wuhan, in spite of getting all four shots.
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Economy -
The real-time GDP tracker run by the Federal Reserve, called GDPNOW, fell into negative territory weeks ago and remains there even now. On Friday afternoon, it registered a 1.2 percent contraction in the economy in the second quarter.
The median forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) is 8.8% for its year-over-year measure and will be released officially this Wednesday, yet another result that takes inflation up to its 40-year high. This confirms expectations that the Fed will increase rates by at least 75 basis points at its July meeting on the 26-27th.
Economists look at the price of copper as an indicator that the economy is at risk of recession, and it is flashing red. Historically, when its price goes up, so typically goes the economy. But when its price starts to fall, it could mean the economy is heading in the same direction.
Copper is now trading at about $3.57 per pound. That is a steep and aggressive decline from its peak of $4.94 in March — a nearly 28% decline in just a matter of months. The U.S. GDP in the first quarter of this year declined by 1.6%. Seems the two are hand in glove.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo admits that inflation is a “problem,” but she doesn’t think we should be “talking ourselves into a recession.”
OBSERVATION - Remember, this is the same administration that was saying to us last year that inflation was ‘transitory’.
The US drought Monitor has expanded the nation’s doubt footprint and is now reporting that 70% of the U.S. is affected by abnormal dryness/drought. The service notes drought conditions are rapidly expanding in the Ohio, Tennessee, and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Drought conditions also grow throughout the midwest, negatively impacting agriculture and crop yield. Drought conditions currently affect 30% of Corn, 22% of soybeans, 19% of wheat, and 68% of Cotton Crops. (FO)
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Biden / Harris watch -
The New York Post headline reads “Biden’s approval rating craters to 30% after brutal week.” A Saturday Civiqs poll revealed reports that just 29 percent of voters approve of Biden. Media stories question if biden it too “old” to be president.
OBSERVATION - MSM attacks on biden are almost unprecedented. openly attacking a democrat president ahead of a crucial midterm is unbelievable, unless the powers that be ar looking to dethrone him - but then they have to deal wit harris.
Biden said Sunday he is considering declaring a public health emergency to free up federal resources to promote abortion access, even though the White House has said it doesn’t seem like “a great option.”
OBSERVATION - That would be a bad option. Hard to get around the Hyde amendment and would be seen by most as a petty political action.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Continued attacks on pro-life affiliated organizations/buildings. A few more churches were vandalized/set on fire over the weekend.
Otherwise, BLM/Antifa action levels have dropped to very low levels - exceptions being some limited violence in typical strongholds like Portland.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The Air Force announced that promotion opportunities for enlisted troops will significantly decrease, delivering a crushing blow to new airmen who were hoping to climb the ranks in the near future.
A press release from the service attributed the decrease in promotion opportunities to restructuring, a decrease in end-strength numbers and higher retention levels.
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China -
Hundreds of people in China’s Henan province attended a banking protest on Sunday which turned violent after a clash with a group of unidentified men.
Protesters said the banks had frozen their deposits because of supposed upgrades to their internal systems, but had not been in communication since. Some 39bn yuan ($5.8bn; £4.9bn) is believed to have been frozen, leaving hundreds of thousands affected. Chinese Banks stopped depositors from withdrawing money back in April and have not enabled withdrawals since.
Some bank customers who had visited Zhengzhou later said they had run into issues on their Covid-19 tracing app, which in many Chinese cities is necessary for residents to enter buildings and shops, use public transport or leave the city. If this status turns red, it indicates the person has tested positive for Covid recently or is suspected to have Covid, and must be quarantined for 14 days. Some customers of the four banks said their status had turned red, despite their not having been in contact with any Covid cases.
OBSERVATION - China’s economy is in a world of hurt. Rumors are afoot that the govt has taken the funds fo its own use. Second aspect of this story is the govt’s use of the wuhan passport app to control peoples responses and movements. This is a beta version of what to expect from an eventual social credit passport / credit system that the govt can use to control the population.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
South Korea’s military said on Sunday it had detected the trajectories of what appeared to be shots fired by North Korea, possibly from multiple rocket launchers (MLRs).
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Japan -
Shinzo Abe’s political party wins supermajority in parliamentary elections. The supermajority will allow the coalition to change Japan’s pacifist constitution, opening up the potential for the country to become a military power.
OBSERVATION - Japan has been trending to increase its military over the past several years facing increased aggressive actions of China and Russia. The urgency may have been made greater with the rise of the biden regime and shaky support from the US.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Logistics -
- Observers noting trains full of rail road ties - suggesting that Russia is working hard to maintain the rail network in captured regions that are being destroyed by artillery and partisan efforts.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Wagner Group is offering 4-month contracts to volunteers with a 240k-rubles-a-month salary plus bonus (150k-700k rubles). Volunteers are trained in Molkino, and they are recruiting for engineer, artillery, armor, and other specialties.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period
RUMINT - I’ve commented on Russian milbloggers being very negative towards putin and the military’s handling of the war. These are not hack but folks who’ve been there, done that for the Russian govt. One of the biggest names out there is former Russian FSB officer - Igor Sterlkov, the man who crossed the border to lead the original 2014 Donbas “separatist” uprising, a veteran of Bosnia, and both Chechen wars. He has recently been complaining of Ukraine HIMARS success against Russian ammo, logistics and command posts saying the strikes have lead to high personnel losses and ammunition shortages. His and other milbloggers voices have become so loud that Russia is looking to censor them.
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24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Zelensky has ordered the liberation the south of Ukraine according to Minister of Defense Reznikov. To do so Ukraine is mobilizing a million man army.
NOTE - At the start of conflict, mobilization of one million was started. Now four months into this there are a lot of these reservists trained and ready.
Russian missiles of all kinds have been striking more civilian/residential areas of Ukraine. Increased use of old or altered systems (KM-22 and S-300 for example) with relatively poor accuracy is making matters worse.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army continue to shell border communities of Sumy and Chernihiv regions
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More artillery fire around the region with very heavy missile strikes on Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast -
Continued “relentless” shelling of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk continues. Russian artillery likely being used to preempt any Ukrainan counter attacks while Russian units ‘pause’ to reman and rearm. There have been limited Russian probing attacks, but nothing significant.
Crimea Front -
Substantial Russian artillery strikes along the Kherson - Mykolaiv border with Mykolaiv getting hit with 6 missiles overnight. Increased artillery may be due to Ukraine’s announcement of an offensive in the south.
Ukraine reportedly destroyed a Russian command post and communication systems in Tavriysk .
Russia jets launched 11 Kh-31 missiles at Odesa region
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Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
Partisan Resistance -
Nothing significant to report
Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW
Overnight there were at least 11 new missile strikes on Russian military targets suspected to be by HIMARS.
Big Explosions occurred in Mariupol, Alchevsk, Shakhtarsk, Kirovske, Khartsyzk, Chystiakove, Zuhres, Prydorozhnje, Ilovaisk, Kalina Mine & Leninskyi District in Donetsk City and Nova Kakhovka
2 HIMARS missile strikes were also reportedly conducted on Chornobaivka in Kherson destroying Russian equipment, command posts, and ammunition warehouses
OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.
BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. Russia continues to try to control the tempo in the east with a lot of artillery fire.
A lot of news continues regarding suspected HIMARS strikes on Russian ammo dumps and CPs. Some of these attacks could have been pulled off with conventional artillery, but many sites are located up to 50 KMs from the front. Russia seems powerless to stop/intercept these strikes.
Ukraine projecting an offensive in the south puts Russia on the horns of a dilemma. They just don’t have the forces and equipment to face a major offensive toward Kherson and Crimea. They have the bulk of their efforts focused on the east, leaving lesser quality and equipped forces in the south and west. Ukraine OTOH has far better defensive terrain in the east as well as must be seeing the effects of their interdiction strikes on Russian command and logistics. Additionally, defense can be achieved with fewer forces.
Other sources look at the southern offensive being linked to the flood of western arms and munitions. With Ukraine mobilization into its fourth month, there are plenty of motivated troops for them to draw on.
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Belarus -
Putin and Lukashenka in a phone call discussed possible joint response to Lithuanian restrictions on goods transit to Kaliningrad.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko might be bracing for a revolt from his own military officers after they recently expressed their opposition to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, describing that such decision is “pure suicide,” the Express reported Saturday.
“By entering the war against Ukraine, Belarus will be evicted from the community of civilized states and will be an international outcast for many years to come,” the military officers wrote.
OBSERVATION - Lukashenka is the weakest link in Putin’s web. He is facing potential rebellion from his military if he gets too involved in supporting the war against Ukraine. I’ve noted in the past the military’s reluctance to get involved and these warning letters from elements of the Special forces should get his undivided attention.
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Poland -
Poland PM’s Morawiecki’s speech at the 77th anniversary of the Augustów Roundup, where at least 600+ Poles were killed by the NKVD: “We’ll never allow a Russian soldier to step on Poland soil again. We’ll never let that happen, unless one of them wants to kneel under one of those crosses.”
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Europe / NATO General -
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EU nations are scrambling to prepare for a likely complete cutoff of Russian gas. France believes that a cutoff of Russian gas is the most probable outcome, while Germany scrambles to get coal plants back on line.
Expectations of Russia weaponizing gas against Europe’s major economies have grown since Nord Stream drastically cut gas supply to the EU. Inffact Nord Stream 1 is down today for ‘maintenance’, european authorities are concerned Russia won’t turn the supply back on.
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Middle East / N. Africa General -
Biden still in the process of final plans for his middle east trip.
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Iraq -
Turkish aircraft launched attacks on Kurdish forces in N Iraq, the most significant action in weeks.
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Syria -
Turkish Defense Minister Akar says that his country is being targeted by armed forces in northern Syria, especially from Manbij and Tal Rifaat, and indicates the increase in military attacks against Turkish forces in those areas. Further, Turkey will not postpone the military operation in northern Syria.
OBSERVATION - This operation has been long announced, yet delayed for weeks.
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Turkey -
See Syria and Iraq above.
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Back for a quick roundup
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The World Economic Forum (WEF) released a position paper Monday that inexorably links two claimed global crises as one – “climate change” and the “decline of democracy.” It says fighting the former can save the latter as long as consumers stop burning coal, oil, and gas in exchange for green renewables. The WEF paper argues for the past 15 years, democracy has been in decline worldwide. To protect and promote freedom, “leading democracies must strengthen their economies and safeguard liberty.”
It goes on to say ignoring progress toward a “low-carbon economy could put democracies in greater economic peril, not less” while repeating the broader demand of environmental activists for companies to stop investing fossil fuels.
The paper goes on to argue that compliance can and must be enforced.
Taxes can be imposed on carbon-intensive imports to reduce the risk of unfair competition for their domestic industries “and to deter companies from relocating overseas to avoid compliance at home.”
OBSERVATION - ‘must be enforced’ by whom and what army? GGR has transitioned off the opening wuhan granted and onto the broad climate change bleat.
Much like in the Netherlands, Justin Trudeau is bringing in a nitrogen emissions cap that will absolutely decimate Canadian farming.
In December 2020, the Trudeau government unveiled their new climate plan, with a focus on reducing nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030.
“Fertilizers play a major role in the agriculture sector’s success and have contributed to record harvests in the last decade. They have helped drive increases in Canadian crop yields, grain sales, and exports,” a news release from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reads.
“However, nitrous oxide emissions, particularly those associated with synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use have also grown significantly. That is why the Government of Canada has set the national fertilizer emissions reduction target, which is part of the commitment to reduce total GHG emissions in Canada by 40-45% by 2030….”
This is a tacit admission that any attempt to lower admissions by reducing nitrogen fertilizer will consequently lower crop yields over the next decade, hurting the Agriculture sector and, more importantly, hurting farmers.
OBSERVATION - Altering farming/ranching to meet methane and other ‘goals’ will destroy modern agriculture, a system that is able to feed the current world’s population.
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Wuhan virus -
More rumblings over the latest, greatest variant. More ‘talk’ about mandating additional shots - even though this variant is mild.
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Economy -
The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981.
OBSERVATION - This will pretty well lock in a 75 basis point rais in the fed rate later this month.
Oil tumbled as concerns about a global economic slowdown (read recession) and growing Covid-19 cases in China reduced traders’ appetite for risk. West Texas Intermediate shed more than 8% to settle under $96 a barrel for the first time since early April. Rising virus cases in China and looming US inflation data are stoking concerns about demand.
OBSERVATION - Currently only short term relief. Too many factors that can kick the legs out from any price pull back.
U.S. small-business confidence dropped to the lowest level in nearly 9-1/2 years in June amid concerns about inflation, but demand for labor remained solid as businesses continued to grow their operations, a survey showed on Tuesday.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.6 points last month to 89.5, the lowest level since January 2013. Thirty-four percent of owners said that inflation was their biggest single problem in running their business, an increase of six points from May and the highest level since the fourth quarter of 1980.
Railroad freight traffic across the United States could come to a screeching halt July 18 if progress isn’t made on a labor contract between national rail carriers and their unions. This would be a nationwide strike, and the entire system would suddenly be frozen.
At the moment the two sides are in a “cooling off period”, but that “cooling off period” will be over at 12:01 AM on July 18th.
OBSERVATION - The major railroads have claimed they cant move the volume of goods already in the system - creating severe shortage in critical supplies like food to feed lots in Kalifornia, diesel and DEF shortages, fertilizer shortages, etc. Any kind of shutdown has the potential to hammer the economy and sustain inflation rates by the shortages created, and later the inability to catch up on those shortages. Unions and their globalist influencers are behind this - knowing full well the chaos this could cause.
The euro and the US dollar are at parity for the first time in 20 years. Strength of the dollar in the face of a recession is interesting. Metals taking a beating even though globally things are very unstable - a condition where precious metals usually are sought after. U.S. Dollar index is up 16% over the past year.
Cheniere Energy Inc., the nation’s largest liquid natural gas (LNG) producer, has petitioned the Biden administration for an exemption on newly expanded Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions standards. The EPA previously described the pollution from Cheniere’s turbines as “negligible” but is removing exemptions following threats of lawsuits by environmental groups.
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Biden / Harris watch -
OBSERVATION - Political junkies are focusing in on biden’s remaining time at the WH and wondering how soon the democrats are going to jettison him - even before the midterms. One factor that they seem to be ignoring is the internal turmoil such a move will create - a move that may likely cast them them even more seats in congress. Political commonsense would want the best unity possible going into a major election. Forcing biden out is just the opposite and then the contemplation that Harris will take over - well rock meets hard place.
Dr. Jill regarding the latino community of the United States as being “as unique as the breakfast tacos here in San Antonio.”
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CW2/Domestic violence -
A California-based crisis pregnancy center hired security after a man showed up at its doors armed with a machete, the center’s president revealed in testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday.
Alternatives Pregnancy Center has taken increased safety measures to respond to this and other threats of violence the clinic has received, including arming staff members and shutting down its mobile clinic, according to testimony from the center’s president, Heidi Matzke.
OBSERVATION - As shrill voices on the left continue to rise, so too the number of nut jobs willing to carry those calls to their logical conclusions are going to come out of the wood work.
Still monitoring rumors that the J6 political show may generate an attempt to arrest Trump - and any ramifications.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The U.S. Air Force 354th Air Expeditionary Wing (AEW) and Marine Aircraft Group 12 performed a capabilities demonstration during a pre-planned readiness exercise at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni, Japan, July 7, 2022. The demonstration included five U.S Marine Corps F/A-18 Hornets, eight F-35B Lightning IIs, a KC-130J Super Hercules aircraft, 10 U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors and 10 F-35A Lightning II aircraft. The large formation exercise tested the units’ ability to rapidly generate joint airpower in support of the defense of Japan, ensuring the stability and security of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
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China -
The USS Benfold, a guided-missile destroyer, sailed past the Paracel Islands, located in the South China Sea. China’s Southern Theater Command ordered the Benfold to leave Chinese territorial waters, which the U.S. describes as an international waterway.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from July 5, 2022 indicates that despite heavy rains over the past several weeks, the 5 MWe Reactor continues to produce plutonium for the country’s nuclear weapons program.
To date, no major flooding is apparent, although increased humidity and constant rain may cause problems in some process buildings. Continued rain could bring about flooding of critical facilities later this summer, which may hamper fissile material production.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Putin will visit Iran next week, the Kremlin said Tuesday, a day after the U.S. warned that Tehran could provide Moscow with drones for its action in Ukraine.
During a trip to Tehran next Tuesday, Putin will attend a trilateral meeting with the leaders of Iran and Turkey, the so-called Astana format of meetings for Syria-related talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Putin will not discuss the purchase of drones with the two Presidents in Tehran
Logistics -
- The White House said Monday that it believes that Russia is turning to Iran to provide it with “hundreds” of drones, including those capable of carrying weapons, for use in Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian strikes on a Russian base in Kherson City on July 10 killed 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division Commander Colonel Aleksei Gorobets, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division Deputy Commander Colonel Sergey Kens, and 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division Deputy Artillery Commander Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Gordeev. Ukrainian sources reported the strikes also killed 22nd Army Corps Chief of Staff Major General Artyom Nasbulin,
- Russian forces are reportedly forming a new brigade-level combat unit in Kherson Oblast and are continuing to face personnel shortages. The GUR reported that Russian forces are recruiting Russian officers to staff a new brigade-level unit in Kherson Oblast, but officers are refusing to participate in the deployment.
- The Ukrainian Strategic Command reported on July 11 that Ukrainian forces killed Deputy Commander of the 106th Airborne Assault Division Colonel Sergey Kuzminov and Chief of Staff of the 16th Separate Guards SPETSNAZ Brigade Major Dmitriy Semenov
Economic Impact -
- Sales of new passenger cars in Russia are expected to decline 28% in 2022 and could drop as much as 50%, according to a report in the state-run media outlet Tass. The Trust Technologies auditing firm blamed increased sanctions pressure, declining imports and a “massive departure of players” as foreign firms leave Russia.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period
RUMINT - Russia’s RIA Novosti was told by an LNR official that Ukraine inflicted a massive strike on the air defense unit that covers Luhansk. Might be a sign that Ukraine is now shifting HIMARS strikes towards Russian air defenses.
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24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. Russian forces continue to regroup, rest, refit, and reconstitute; and bombard critical areas to set conditions for future ground offensives. Such a pause don’t necessarily prelcude the conduct limited probing attacks. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not claim any new territorial control on July 12.
Link to map produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. The small territorial gain in eastern Ukraine is evident.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army continue to shell border communities of Sumy and Chernihiv regions
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More artillery fire around the region, Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults on Dementiivka on July 12. Persistent Russian attacks against Dementiivka are likely intended to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks from Prudyanka north toward Russian positions in Tsupivka.
Donetsk Oblast -
Continued “relentless” shelling of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk continues. Unconfirmed reports that teh volume of fire has decreased noticably.
Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.
Russian artillery fire hitting Ukrainian controlled Bakhmut tonight. The Stupky area of northern Bakhmut getting absolutely pounded by Russian rockets tonight. The city’s increasingly come under attack as Russia pushed deeper west into the Donbas.
Russian forces conducted air and artillery strikes to the northeast, east, and south of Bakhmut on July 12.
Crimea Front -
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian strikes killed multiple Russian officers in Kherson City on July 10.
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots
Russian artillery focusing on the area between Kherson and Mykolaiv.
Following the Russian retreat from Snake Island a large number of ships are waiting to access the smaller 🇺🇦 ports along the Danube border with 🇷🇴 . Capacity is much more limited than Odessa port, but it’s an improvement anyhow.
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Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
Partisan Resistance -
Ukrainian sabotage group attacked the Alania volunteer battalion in Huliaipole, eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, while Head of North Ossetian Republic Sergey Menyaylo was with the battalion on an unspecified past date; the attack injured several battalion members but not Menyaylo himself.
Ammunition / logistical sites hit - NEW
Nova Khakovka follow up Explosions racked the area for nearly a day. Sources report that at the time of the strike, there was a large fleet of Russian vehicles in at the base, incl. many fuel trucks, at least 50 units
In addition, the presence of more than 200 missiles for the Smerch MLRS was visually confirmed.
Ukraine is continuing to pummel Russian ammunition depots. Video is emerging of new strikes, this time in Russian controlled areas of Luhansk and Chornobaivka, Kherson. Spectacular secondary explosions.
OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid. Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The urban areas of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase.
The following map calls out these areas more clearly -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXhdA4QXEAMlGTY?format=jpg&name=medium
BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. Russia continues to try to control the tempo in the east with a lot of artillery fire.
As noted above under Russia - apparent HIMARS strikes have taken another chunk out of Russian senior leadership in Ukraine. This is the first documentation of who’s been taken out as eyes have been focused on the spectacular ammo dump explosions. Kherson area command posts seem to be artillery/missile bait as earlier an artillery attack at the airport killed a number of generals and senior staff a couple months ago. I attribute this to sharp eyes of the partisans, good intel integration and targeting (plotting these CPs as Russia seems to be lazy in moving them around) and timely actionable intelligence when the big boys are there.
Hopefully tomorrow I’ll put some thoughts together on how combat and key weapons have changed over the past four months.
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Belarus -
Belarus has kicked off military drills in the Homel region, just north of the border with Ukraine. It was there, you will remember, that Russian troops escaped to after their advance on Kyiv was repulsed.
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Europe / NATO General -
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France’s Minister of Economy, Finance, and Recovery warned Sunday that Europe should expect a complete halt of Russian natural gas supplies. Le Maire was at the Les Rencontres Economiques economic forum when he made the comments. He urged his European counterparts to immediately seek alternate sources of energy ahead of what he said would be a catastrophic situation in Europe.
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Israel -
biden landed in Israel today for the first of several meetings with leaders in the region. Reportedly Israel has four key issues that they want to address-
- Missile Defense systems. During Joe Biden’s visit, Israel will showcase its new Iron Beam laser defense system in hopes of acquiring additional funding for the groundbreaking system. Officials are also expected to push the US to approve the sale of the system to regional countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
- Iran and proxies across the Middle East . Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program to be the No. 1 concern. Although Iran has consistently denied seeking to build a nuclear bomb, tensions have risen as the West seeks to sign a nuclear deal with Tehran. The Islamic Republic also continues to develop ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads that would take less than 15 minutes to reach Israel. Iran has several rockets that could reach Israeli territory.
- Acquiring new planes and helicopters. Israel is concerned with the consistent delays in acquiring KC-46 tankers, which will replace Israel’s Ram (Boeing 707) tanker aircraft that are required for long-range missions and nearing the age of 60.
- MOU. Israeli officials will likely push to start the discussion of a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which would allow Israel to have a framework and the freedom to decide and finance future procurement plans. The last MOU signed between Jerusalem and Washington in 2016 under 0bama gave Israel a landmark $38 billion in military aid over a decade. With talk of the West signing a new nuclear deal with Iran, Israel could even demand more from Biden in order to retain its qualitative military edge.
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Iran -
See visit of putin under Russia above.
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Syria -
The U.S. military announced it blew up one of the ISIS terrorist group’s top five global leaders – and the leader of the ISIS branch in Syria – in a drone strike in Syria on Tuesday and injured a senior ISIS official.
OBSERVATION - Under the radar, ISIS has been slowly regaining territory in Syria. Not a whole lot, but far more than a couple years ago.
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Misc of Note -
On Monday, the city of New York launched a new public service announcement (PSA) that provides guidelines about what residents should do in the event of a nuclear attack. Unfortunately, New Yorkers who watch the PSA will likely be severely ill-prepared should a nuclear weapon detonate in their vicinity, as the video provides little in the way of specifics or useful information.