Replies

________________________________

Economy -

The current U.S. Misery Index stands at a very miserable 12.66%. Still shy of the peak of 21.98% under Carter, but are trending higher.

Over the first half of 2022, 1,411 American workplaces filed union-organizing petitions with the National Labor Relations Board—the highest mark since 2015, reports the Wall Street Journal. While the petition activity represents a 69% surge over 2021, union membership hovers near historic lows, with only 10.3% of U.S. workers belonging to unions. In 1964, almost 30% did, according to university research cited by the Journal.

OBSERVATION - Tight labor markets and failing wages can drive some of this as for some employees it can be sold as the only way for them to gain control of their work environment, conditions and wages. The unions then take advantage of this and turn int into new unions, with new monies coming into the political coffers. Unions seek power and we will see starting this Monday how vicious they are in wanting that power if the rail roads go on strike.

Wells Fargo & Co said on Friday its second-quarter profit nearly halved as the bank set aside more funds to cover potential loan losses, while its mortgage lending business came under pressure from higher interest rates. Under an accounting standard that took effect in 2020, banks must factor the economic outlook into loan loss reserves. Last year, the bank had released $1.6 billion from its reserves for loan losses as the economy rebounded from the pandemic.

Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo told reporters that retail and business customers remain strong, but the bank is prepared for a potential economic downturn. “Things will probably get worse, but that’s already included in the overall scenario analysis and the allowance level we have for the quarter,” Santomassimo said.

OBSERVATION - Flush with all those new home loans, now threatened by a recession / job losses that could cause a flood of loan defaults, WF is hedging its bets. I expect to see other banks / loan institutions do the same in the coming weeks.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) issued a conservation appeal for 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday. It comes as Dallas and other cities saw triple-digit temperatures. According to the news release, one of the reasons for the conservation appeal and possible grid disruption is due to “low wind,” and it noted: “Wind generation is currently generating less than what is historically generated in this time period.”
Poor solar power generation is also a factor, the release stated. “Developing cloud cover in West Texas has reduced the amount of solar generation,” the operator wrote.

OBSERVATION - This is a harbinger of the desired future the democrats want for America. Unreliable energy kills the economic engine of the country. Texas has seen the folly of their ‘green’ power in the winter, now seeing the great ‘benefits’ of it during a summer.

Housing market is seeing some serous changes. In Sacramento Kalifornia, one of the hottest markets last year, media prices have dropped substantially. On the flip side, interest rates for loans have doubled, averaging 6%. So even with lower home prices, mortgage payments could be hard to make because of the higher interest rate.

OBSERVATION - With a recession, many who purchased in the past couple of years will find themselves way under water with their mortgage. This will vex families trying to leave liberal hell holes like Kalifornia for friendlier climes.

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

biden laughed off criticism that he shouldn’t have fist-bumped the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who is believed to have ordered the gruesome 2018 murder of Saudi dissident and Washington Post writer Jamal Khashoggi.

Biden became the first US President to visit East Jerusalem despite warnings from US congress members that such a move would be a “sign of continued support” for the Palestinian Authority and lend credence to the PA’s “illegitimate efforts to claim” the region.

OBSERVATION - biden’s initial meetings in Israel and SA have been viewed as underwhelming by most global observers. Nothing meaningful being seen as coming out of them.

Harris’ second chief speechwriter is bailing after only four months on the job.

OBSERVATION - Wait - what? You mean some one was paid to have the gobbly-gook word salad speeches written for her?
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

RiseUp4AbortionRights, one of the pro-abortion groups that has sprung to life following the overthrow of Roe, has been linked to the Revolutionary Communist Party (RCP). Observers are noting that leadership for both organizations are intermixed as well as funding to a degree.

OBSERVATION - This should come as no surprise. Any leftist group today will have ties to the communists and communism.

House Democrats on July 13 voted to add an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual military spending bill, to identify “neo-Nazis” in the military and law enforcement.
The NDAA amendment was sponsored by Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and instructs the FBI, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Department of Defense (DOD) to publish a report analyzing “white supremacist and neo-Nazi activity” within military and law enforcement.
If the amendment is passed by the Senate, the FBI, DHS, and DOD would be required within 180 days to send Congress a report on the number of people discharged from either military service or law enforcement for “white supremacist” or “neo-Nazi” ideology.
The bill caught the ire of Sen Rand Paul. Though that bill was “ostensibly” about domestic terrorism, Paul said, the bill “would be more accurately called ‘the Democrat plan to brand and insult our police and soldiers as white supremacists and neo-Nazis.’”
“These are young men and women who have given arms and legs and … I don’t know of an example of some guy who says, ‘Oh yeah, we were blown up by an IED but we’ve got to leave that guy because he’s of a different race,’” Paul continued. “How insulting!”
Paul said the bill would create a task force to investigate American soldiers by reading their emails, tracking their web browser history, and implying that they’re guilty until they can prove themselves innocent.
“This bill is an insult to every police officer in this country. This bill is an insult to everyone in our armed services,” Paul said.

OBSERVATION - Same drill, anyone who opposes the current regime’s dictates is considered to be a “white supremacist and neo-Nazi”. This just furthers the goal of marking opposition within the military / law enforcement so that if the regime puts the hammer down, these elements will be among the first to be put down. NOTE ALSO - involves those ‘discharged’ for those ‘ideolgies’. Most likely will extend to others discharged who had anti-left views but were not discharged because of them.

___________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

The US embarrassed itself on the world stage by sending the two highest profile trannies to France to represent the nation on a diplomatic mission. This is biden’s vision for America.

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has maintained his opposition to a scaled-back version of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion “Build Back Better” budget reconciliation bill, due to inflationary concerns.
RELATED - Biden responded with a statement after Thursday’s night’s development that West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin wanted to wait next month’s inflation figures before agreeing to a deal with his party’s leadership on Biden’s key agenda items. ‘Action on climate change and clean energy remains more urgent than ever. So let me be clear: if the Senate will not move to tackle the climate crisis and strengthen our domestic clean energy industry, I will take strong executive action to meet this moment,’ Biden said.

OBSERVATION - Congressional leftist heads are exploding as we speak. EOs will be weak, and biden may continue the congressional run around via regulation changes and associated court dodging to get his way. Increasing regulations has been a more productive attack vector by the left over the past couple years.

NOTE - putting this here because it can fit into multiple categories.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) says. “Equating the security threat of climate change to [that of] China, that’s a real problem. That’s not even something you should gloss over. That is a cultural problem, all the way to the top,”
Rep. Roy lists just some the ways that woke issues have permeated every corner of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) - from West Point teaching Army cadets that they need to “address Whiteness,” to the Navy and Marines all instituting their own woke policies.

OBSERVATION - I’m liking Congressman Roy more and more. Though there are good speakers on the right in congress, he kind of put the cookies within reach. Very down to earth. When having our military are forced march around in high heels and attend woke agenda training instead of training to fight the next war, there are clearly serious problems.

House Democrats have passed two measures that would codify abortion into federal law to counter the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v Jackson, which returned the power to regulate abortions to the states.
The first bill, titled the Women’s Health Protection Act, was written to shield health care providers and mothers seeking to terminate the life of pre-born children from any state restrictions. The legislation passed in a 219-to-210 vote with zero support from Republicans.
The second bill is titled Ensuring Access to Abortion Act and would protect mothers who cross state lines from receiving any penalties for breaking state laws. The measure passed 223 to 205.

OBSERVATION - These bills are nothing more than an effort to get out the vote for democrats. Not sure at this stage their viability in the Senate.

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Recent General Accountability Office (GAO) notes that many American airplanes are not ready to fly in a mission-capable fashion. They are likely grounded due to maintenance problems, lack of spare parts, or just general wear and tear. One statistic jumps out from the report. of the Air Force’s 186 F-22s in service, only 93 are currently combat effective.

The GAO report warns that “Neither the Air Force nor the Navy have completed mitigation plans to remedy maintenance challenges, risks, or related impacts identified in any sustainment reviews. As a result, the Air Force and Navy cannot fully address unit-level aviation maintenance challenges affecting aircraft availability required for training and operations.”

OBSERVATION - Aircraft readiness (and other equipment in general) has been a problem in the past but has gotten worse with budget constraints and money that should have gone to training and maintenance being diverted to woke causes.
_________________________________

China -

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr ordered the transport ministry to renegotiate loan agreements struck by his predecessor with China for railway projects worth US$4.9 billion (S$6.86 billion), an official said on Saturday (July 16).
Transportation Undersecretary Cesar Chavez said the official development assistance loan agreements for the three projects were considered “withdrawn” after the Chinese government “failed to act on the funding requests” made by the government of then President Rodrigo Duterte.
Mr Chavez said other funding options were also being considered for the projects worth 276 billion Philippine pesos (S$6.86 billion): the Subic-Clark Railway Project, the Philippine National Railways South Long-Haul Project and the Davao-Digos segment of the Mindanao Railway Project.

OBSERVATION - This is a pattern for China, get involved funding projects in small countries and then call the note in when those countries cannot pay the bill - essentially ceding control of those project to China.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Evidence that the operational ‘pause’ is nearing an end, Russian Defence Minister Shoigu ordered to increase military activity in Ukraine on all directions. It said Shoigu “gave the necessary instructions to further increase the actions of groups in all operational areas in order to exclude the possibility of the Kyiv regime launching massive rocket and artillery strikes on civilian infrastructure and residents of settlements in Donbas and other regions”.
The ministry said Shoigu had issued his order after listening to reports at a command centre from generals leading the “South” and “Centre” command groups of Russian forces operating in Ukraine, as well as other commanders.
NOTE - see link to map below under Ukraine 24 hr roundup for the locations of these commands.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Reportedly an 81-person detachment of Russian military volunteers of the 263-person South Uralets Battalion reportedly left Chelyabinsk on July 15 for an accelerated training course in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT -
According to the Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, Russian military attachés in the EU were ordered to recruit policemen and civilians involved in the transportation of weapons for Ukraine.
NOTE - This could become important if Russia is planning covert attacks on convoys or actually openly attacks them. Could also be a method of gathering intel on just what and how much is headed to Ukraine, where it will enter the country and potential routes and storage sites in Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
This is the apparent calm before the storm in the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient. Some analysts see evidence that the offensive could resume within days given that about 10 days have passed since the inferred start of the pause. This due largely to the pressure Russian commanders have received to resume the offense and not allow the tempo to switch to the Ukranians. Western analysts consider 10 days to be insufficient to fully regenerate Russian forces for large-scale offensive operations.

Russia launched more aggressive missile attacks at cities in Ukraine, most of which reportedly hit civilian / residential targets.

Conventional artillery attacks seem to have tapered way back - more seemingly to harass rather than support a ground attack.

Link to map produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More air and artillery strikes around the region. 3 people killed, 3 wounded, with a school and a store destroyed as result of Russian missile strike in Chuhuiv.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Scattered Russian artillery and air strikes around the margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient . Additional scattered artillery / air strikes along the LOC to the west. Only significant ground attack by Russia overnight in the area were a series of limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, southeast of Bakhmut,

Crimea Front ———
Odesa hit with missile attacks overnight.
Russian artillery along the Mykolaiv - Kherson border.
Explosions reported near Kherson - suspected logistics site.
.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Major Russian missile strikes against Dnipro overnight. Ukraine ADA shot down some but many found their target. Russia is believed to have used the Kh-101 air launched cruse missiles in the attack that killed several civilians.

Russia also launched missile attacks against Kostiantynivka.

Russian Territory - ——
Explosions reported overnight at Skarhivka village of Kreminna Oblast.

Reports of 2 missiles launched from Belgorod towards Kharkiv, but both failed.
NOTE - Russian source, increasing numbers of reported missile failures of Iskander missile launches from Belgorod.

Partisan Resistance ——
Nothing significant to report

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Explosions reported near Kherson - suspected logistics site.

OUTLOOK ——
This “operational pause” is going to come to an end sometime soon. The assumption is that the Russians will likely launch a larger-scale and more determined offensive along the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut line soon, but there are no indications yet of how soon that attack will begin or exactly where it will focus.
Current thoughts are that Russian may focus on the northern and southern margin of the salient and push to close it off, in a manner similar to the way they captured Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The major difference is that Ukraine is now in a better tactical position and not extended into a pocket with exposed supply lines.
However, it is critical for Russia to regain the offensive advantage before Ukraine can establish its counter defensive measures.

The Russians seem to have reduced their conventional artillery action. Most likely to conserve rounds for the next attack phase or because Ukrainan missile strikes on ammo dumps have created a significant shortage - or both.

Reports, noted yesterday, that Russia is moving ammo dumps into cultural and residential areas is very disturbing. This is a deliberate act counter to the ‘accepted’ rules of war, rules Russia tossed in the waste can at the start.

The following map is still good to orient where the action is an projected some of the new objectives, but add to it Bakhmet to the south. -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXhdA4QXEAMlGTY?format=jpg&name=medium

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Nothing in the news, seems the threat / pressure has decreased.
___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
.
G20 finance ministers leave talks divided over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
According to Reuters, the G20 finance ministers reached a “strong consensus” on global food security during two-day talks in Indonesia. However, they failed to issue a formal communique due to disagreements over how to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
____________________________________

Israel -

Hamas launched several rockets out of Gaza towards Israel shortly after biden departed for Saudi Arabia. In total, 4 rockets were launched from Gaza tonight, 1 was intercepted. Later, Israel AF struck Hamas rocket manufacturing site as well as a training base.

OBSERVATION - It appears that Hamas was trying to make some kind of statement about the US/Israel meetings that had just occurred. This latest exchange does not appear to be headed to an out of control war.
____________________________________

Iran -

China Vice FM Ma Zhaoxu had an “in depth” phone conversation with Iran Dep FM and chief negotiator Bagheri Kani, discussing Iranian nuclear issues, per a Chinese diplomat in Tehran.

OBSERVATION - China is seizing the opportunity to move into the Middle East due to the vacuum of power created by the US’ foreign policy mess. Iran sees another vehicle to by pass current and future sanctions - along the lines of the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ track.
__________________________________

Iraq -

Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi met in Jeddah on Saturday according to Iraqi state media. They agreed on close cooperation in military and security affairs between the two countries.

The President of the UAE and the Prime Minister of Iraq discussed relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them on the sidelines of the Jeddah Summit for Security and Development.

_________________________________

Syria -

The Commander-in-Chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi said there are efforts from the Russian side to stop the Turkish military operation, and we are ready to confront any attack on our areas.
This time, we will not be alone in this battle. All people of the region are ready, the Syrian army is ready too, and any individual who is Jealous for the Syrian soil
In June Turkey launched 1.360 attacks against our areas

OBSERVATION - Northern Syria continues to be a potential explosive scenario between Turks and Russian forces. So far they have avoided direct combat - allowing their proxies to do it for them. Now with a substantial amount of Russian soldiers pulled out for Ukraine, the situation is becoming less stable.
__________________________________

A little late, sorry.
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The Biden administration’s international tax agenda suffered a setback when Sen. Manchin rejected a 15% minimum tax on multinational companies this past week, dimming prospects of turning last year’s global tax agreement into reality. Biden administration officials had planned to use Democratic fiscal legislation to enact the U.S. piece of the deal struck last year by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and more than 130 other countries. They wanted quick action to set a 15% minimum tax on U.S.-based multinational companies in each country where they operate, a move aimed at showing international leadership and prodding other countries to follow suit.
IN RELATED - -The United States will look for every opportunity to move ahead and enact a global minimum corporate tax agreement despite the opposition of a key Democratic senator, Joe Manchin, to raising corporate taxes, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. Manchin’s opposition could imperil passage of legislation that would commit the United States to a 15% global minimum corporate tax, a key part of an agreement that Yellen helped negotiate with nearly 140 countries last year.

OBSERVATION-
“Taxation without representation” That 15% will come out of your pockets folks as passed thru costs.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently published an article claiming that the current global economic crisis is a great opportunity for the world to transition to using more renewable energy sources, which they say is the key to protecting both the economy and democracy.
The article was written by Edward Barbier, a “university distinguished professor” of economics at Colorado State University. Barbier claimed that the world is facing the twin crises of climate change and the global decline in democracy, and that these two crises “have come to a head in recent years.” (Related: World Economic Forum deletes article claiming ESH will make Sri Lanka rich by 2025.)
Barbier argued that transition to green energy is key to both tackling climate change and creating sustainable economies, both of which are necessary for countries to safeguard civil liberties and have greater political rights.
“Collective action on a green energy transition is thereby not only good for the climate but also vital for protecting democracy,” wrote Barbier.

OBSERVATION -
The mantra continues -“green energy” is the savior of the world. Yet everywhere it has been applied in any amount , such as Germany, Texas, England, etc it has been an abysmal failure. Climate change is the lie that has been repeated so much the sheeple just nod their heads. I see that the current status quo of green energy push back will be hit when the world declares a global ‘emergency’ like the wuhan one to go around and over opposition to forcefully place these goals in place.

______________________________

Wuhan virus -

Columbia University researchers found the death rate from Spike Protein Syndrome (SPS) is much higher than the Centers for Disease Continuance (CDC) claims, revealing at least 10 times the number of deaths the CDC says have resulted from the jabs. That total is now approaching half-a-million deaths from SPS, not just 20,000 or so.
Research conducted by scientists found that spike proteins injected into the body and created by mRNA “technology” enter the bloodstream and travel to all parts of the body. As mRNA injections reprogram human cells to continuously produce the spike protein prions, they continue accumulating throughout the body.

OBSERVATION - SPS is the excuse the medical community has created to avoid direct association with the jab. Still waiting to see more studies (if ever) as current ones like the CU one are still heavily influenced by the branch covidians.

A respected virologist/immunologist named Dr Ann-Cathrin Engwall has written to the British Medical Journal to explain what the mysterious cause could actually be from Vaxzevria which is an adenovirus vector vaccine from AstraZeneca. Development of a new more pathogenic adenovirus could be caused by using adenovirus vector vaccines in large populations, and it is consistent with the facts available.

OBSERVATION - Another ‘vaccine’, another lethal side effect. AstraZeneca is not the mRNA designed vaccine created by Pfizer and Moderna, but a different approach. Apparently this doctor has seen a direct cause-effect relationship between AZ and the explosion of acute hepatitis (“adenovirus infections “) in children. What is infuriating about this is there was absolutely no need to vaccinate kids - the reactions from the jabs (of all kinds) we are now seeing as being more lethal and damaging than the disease itself.
______________________________

Economy -

Biden is facing an implosion of nuclear magnitude. What is he going to do about the looming national rail road strike set for Monday. Biden, who has touted himself as a champion of organized labor, is being put in a tough position because he doesn’t want to alienate union workers — whose votes are crucial in Rust Belt swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — but is also facing his biggest political challenge yet in containing high inflation, which would doubtlessly be worsened by supply chains fraying even further. He has two primary choices
1. Do nothing
2. He could choose to name a board of arbitrators to review the contract dispute — doing so would cause any strike or lockout to be delayed by 60 days under federal law, buying negotiators and the administration some time to resolve the situation.
Option 1 would be disastrous for the country, and for democrat hopes for the midterms. It is likely that Biden will assemble the board to help work the situation out and avoid a strike, at least for the next 60 days, according to Greg Regan, president of the Transportation Trades Department at the AFL-CIO. My gut says that his administration will be sluggish in implementing this option.

OBSERVATION-

Confusion continues about who ordered power outages Wednesday evening in SouthTexas, and why.
On Thursday, neither American Electric Power Texas nor ERCOT would tell 3NEWS who ordered Wednesday’s power outages in the communities of Kenedy, Sinton, and Pettus. That’s important because AEP Texas said it was working with ERCOT, but ERCOT said it did not order any local outages — only voluntary conservation.

OBSERVATION - SMH. Shutting off power in the midst of a heatwave with little to no warning is a dangerous and lethal operation. What bothers me more is the incompetence of the ERCOT operators. They were screwed up in their preparation and response for the blizzard a couple years ago, and they must still have the same homers working there now.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

U.S. Border Patrol reported processing migrants 191,898 times along the southern border in June, a nearly 14% drop from May, when the agency carried out over 222,000 apprehensions, an all-time monthly high. The previous record for June was reported last year, when Border Patrol carried out 178,649 arrests.
A fourteen percent drop is good, however, record numbers of migrants are coming from beyond Mexico and the Northern Triangle. People are showing up at the southern border from countries around the world. The number of repeat offenders making multiple illegal crossings is increasing.

OBSERVATION - Illegal traffic just this partial FY alone, has exceeded the FY traffic of all previous years - and we still have several months to go. BTW - the drop in crossings in this time frame is common due to summer heat and not any enforcement of the laws by either Mexico or the US.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Fox News host Tucker Carlson has claimed that President Joe Biden takes ‘pills’ to boost his cognitive performance before public appearances.
Biden, 79, has strenuously rejected similar allegations in the past, but Carlson claimed on his Friday evening show that he had spoken ‘directly’ to a witness who saw the alleged medication on the 2020 campaign trail.
‘His staff, supervised by Dr. Jill, his wife, was giving him pills before every public appearance. Checking the time, and at the certain hour giving him a dose of something,’ said Carlson.

OBSERVATION - The release of this information should not shock those who have loved ones with dementia related conditions. What is shocking is that this is increasingly coming out. IF biden is removed under the 25th amendment for mental issues, the big question that should be asked is at what point did he cease to be able to make legal decisions, with all actions afterwards being essentially void because he didn’t capabilities to make those decisions.

biden’s Saudi gaffs continue - “We’ll always honor the bravery and selfishness — selflessness of the — and sacrifices of the Americans who served, including my son, Major Beau Biden, who was stationed in Iraq for a year,”

Press reviews of biden’s middle east travels are in and largely negative . He did not have a single diplomatic breakthrough, an outcome analysts said was no surprise. On issues ranging from energy prices to human rights and Israel’s role in the region, Biden could point only to small — if any — gains after four whirlwind days of meetings and speeches.

OBSERVATION - Press continues it negative coverage of biden - an indicator of a move to lay the groundwork for his eventual stepping down?
MSM and members of his own party are turning against biden as mid-term elections in the U.S. are just weeks away now. The interwebs are full of pundits fror both sides suggesting that biden’s days are numbered. Among most of the discussions, the realization that should biden step down (either by ‘force’ or on his own) they would still be stuck with an equally stupid harris. So some speculation is a two step plan, get biden out even before the midterms ( and scapegoat him for the country’s ills), tell harris she can only be president for a short time and NOT run for election (or step down after a period), then get a VP in place under harris that will be the presidental candidate for 2024. Currently the list looks bleak for the democats on even this plan. Possibilities include hillary, Michelle 0bama, Newsome, Buttigieg, Warren and even the evil witch of the west - pelosi.
Ive noted before that the infighting that would erupt within the democrats would be epic and highly distracting for dems seeking reelection - most likely dooming them to being voted out. This democrat civil war of sorts will bring out their true colors for all to see.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa related groups maintained a relatively low profile, except for in their base cities like Portland etc. When the do have an action, turn out has been far less than what they desire.

___________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Two more B-2 Spirits arrived in Australia on July 12 in support of a bomber task force mission as U.S. Airmen trained alongside personnel from the Royal Australian Air Force.
The new bombers join two others that arrived July 10 at RAAF Base Amberley. All four B-2s are from the 509th Bomb Wing at Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo. The bombers’ deployment will help support the Enhanced Cooperation Initiative under the Force Posture Agreement first signed more than a decade ago by the U.S. and Australia.
_________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Items are piling up at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) in a sign that North Korea is “illicitly operating” some parts of the inter-Korean economic zone, South Korea’s unification ministry said Tuesday, a day after slamming the North for what it called improper use of South Korean assets.
The remarks come after the ROK military reported detecting the movement of unknown vehicles in the KIC earlier this year. According to a ministry official on Tuesday, South Korea has detected vehicles in the economic zone on multiple occasions since then.
“Recently, we have detected through various routes the movements of North Korean vehicles and items piling up at the complex,” the official said during a background briefing.
The ministry will “take necessary additional measures” with regard to South Korean assets at the KIC and tourist facilities at Mount Kumgang near the inter-Korean border, while monitoring North Korea’s further moves, the official added.
After Seoul suspended inter-Korean tourism cooperation in 2008 and economic cooperation at the KIC in 2016, South Korean companies were forced to abandon their assets in North Korea, which include vehicles, factory facilities and hotel buildings.

OBSERVATION - The KIC (located just inside the NK side of the border) was to be an effort to come to a common goal between the Koreas. South Korea has suspended operations at a jointly run industrial park in following the North’s nuclear tests. NK’s goals are uncertain, but the KIC has newer facilities and may be being retrofitted to meet NK’s economical requirements - likely on the high tech side.
__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its fifth month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Yesterday was the 8th anniversary of the Russian downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in the sky over Ukrainian controlled Donbas. All 298 passengers and crew members died. None of the Russians involved in the tragedy has yet borne responsibility.

Logistics -
- Though Iran claims there are no drones being purchased, evidence shows otherwise. These Iranian drones likely provide no capability that the Russian military does not already have in principle. The Russians should only need to obtain them from Iran because they’ve run out of their own systems and cannot build more in time.

Russian Personnel Issues -
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu indicated that Southern Group Commander General of the Army Sergey Surovikin and Central Group Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin will both continue to command forces on the Eastern Axis.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Milder with thunderstorms and rain over parts of the 10 day forecast period

RUMINT -
Continued Ukranian discussions about an impending offensive into Kherson Oblast and cutting off supply routes from Crimea.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The use of NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) to track battles in Ukraine has been noted here before. It is particularly sensitive to fires largely caused by artillery / missile strikes. Forest fire management here in the US rely heavily on its data and it has been proven to be highly accurate. Analysts are examining the FIRMS data to confirm/deny two things. First, did/has Russia conducted an operational pause and second is there any evidence that the dump strikes have had any impact on the volume of Russian artillery.

Detected heat anomalies remotely sensed data decreased significantly in Donbas starting around July 10. The reduced number of observed heat anomalies also corresponds in part to the assessed Russian operational pause from July 6 – July 15. The number of observed heat anomalies began increasing on July 15 – the day Russian forces announced they were resuming their operational phase.

The intensity of Russian artillery attacks along the Slovyansk-Bakhmut axis in the coming days may clarify the degree to which the reduction in intensity was due to the operational pause or the result of Ukrainian attacks.

Current assessment is that yes, artillery fire did drop. What is needed comparison of pre-artillery dump strikes to present - to judge the impact of those HIMARS related strikes. Maps produced by the US based Institute for the Study of War below show the assessed FIRMS data for July 6th and July 14th for comparison.

https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NASA%20FIRMS%20July%206.jpg

https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/NASA%20FIRMS%20July%2014.jpg

Link to map below produced by a British govt intel firm Defénce Intelligence. It depicts the current status of the war pretty well and has key names for the towns listed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXdF41AXkAAXfhj?format=jpg&name=large

Kyiv front ——
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
Nothing significant to report other than scattered artillery/mortar fire from Russian forces.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Air and artillery strikes continue around the region. See-saw battles developing north of Kharkiv on a relatively small scale.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian probing attacks along the northern margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient . Scattered artillery / air strikes around the periphery of the salient.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, the Russian army is focusing on gaining control over the towns of Siversk and Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Crimea Front ———
More scattered Russian shelling along the Mykolaiv - Kherson border area.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is stripping units from other parts of the Crimea/ south Ukraine region and shifting them towards Kherson region.

Reports of a substantial number of Russian naval vessels operating on the eastern side of Crimea - closer to the Kerch Strait bridge. Assumptions are to either provide additional protection or to distance themselves from Ukrainan Harpoon systems that are beginning to dominate the western portion of the Black Sea.
.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile strikes across Ukraine,” says Ivano-Frankivsk Mayor Ruslan Martsinkiv.
Western, Central, and Eastern, Ukraine were hit overnight by Russian missiles. Explosions confirmed in Chyhyryn community of Cherkasy region, and Chuhuiv.

Russian Territory - ——
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance ——
Guerrilla leaflets in Kherson carry a straightforward message for the occupiers:
“russists are falling asleep, and a HIMARS is waking up”

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Missile strike destroyed a base at Trolleybus depot in Alchevsk.
Explosions reported at a suspected logistics site in Chaplynka and Chornobaivka of Kherson region.
Explosion reported at a warehouse in Lazurne

OUTLOOK ——
Watching the developments on the ground for confirmation of resumption the Russian offensive and what their current goals are. Russia’s response to Ukrainian announcements of an offensive into Kherson Oblast indicates that they are taking it seriously and are moving scarce troops from other sectors to bolster defenses there.

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Nothing in the news, seems the threat / pressure has decreased.
___________________________________

Poland -

Increasing NATO combat and intelligence aircraft operating in the vicinity of the town of Ełk, Poland about 65 km from the narrowest part of the Suwalki Gap. Russia has threatened to seize this gap to maintain ground access to Kaliningrad.

Pres. of PiS Jarosław Kaczyński has announced Poland aims to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. This comes on the heels of a decision to increase standing Polish military forces to around 300,000.

_____________________________________

Iran -

A recent intelligence leak report indicates that Iran is plotting to kill or capture former President Donald Trump as well as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, seeking to avenge the death of its beloved commander, Major General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a drone strike two years ago.

OBSERVATION - This is low hanging fruit for intelligence reports, Iran openly stated over a year ago that they were going after Trump and Pompeo for the death of Soleimani
__________________________________

Iraq -

The Iraqi political scene has been ablaze for the past 72 hours due to the emergence of recordings attributed to Nuri al-Maliki, the ex-Iraqi PM, in which he appears to be criticising and insulting Moqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s strongest Shiite political figures whose faction won big in the 2021 general parliamentary election.
“The issue is that there is a British project aiming to put Moqtada in control of the Shia and Iraq, then they would kill him and give Iraq to the Sunnis. The issue is not al-Maliki [myself], I can just leave and take refuge in the house of Malek and have 2000 fighters protecting me, no one will be able to get to me. That project exists, but I am fighting it, and it is to be fought politically and militarily,” said Nuri al-Maliki about his longtime political rival, Moqtada al-Sadr, in a leaked recording.
“Iran helped al-Sadr, to make him a new Nasrallah [Lebanese Hezbollah chief] in Iraq”, he continued in his tirade against the Shiite leader. “Moqtada is a murderer, how many did he kill in Baghdad? The kidnappings, the car bombs, he is not a master, he is a coward, a traitor, an ignorant who knows nothing (…) I know the Sadrists, I fought them in Basra, Karbala and Baghdad, we had no weapons and the Iranians had given them advanced missiles and we still won,” he said of al-Sadr and his followers.
Nuri al-Maliki, leader of the Shiite party known as the State of Law Coalition and one of the leaders of the Coordination Framework, a Shiite coalition currently holding parliamentary majority, denied the veracity of the recordings via Twitter. He said that the recordings, released on social media by journalist Ali Fadel, were fake. Moqtada al-Sadr, said that the recordings mean nothing.

OBSERVATION - Sadr is the power player in Iraq, having the majority of affiliated parties in power. Exposure of this kind of rhetoric will keep the Iraqi govt in turmoil for a considerable period as it is indicative of a potential limited civil war.
_________________________________

Saudi Arabia -

Saudi Arabia has announced it will increase its oil production capacity level to 13 million barrels a day, up from 10 million, after President Joe Biden’s visit to the kingdom, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insisted Saturday, in an address to the U.S.-Arab summit underway in Jeddah, that it will not be able to go any further than that.
“The kingdom has announced an increase in its production capacity level to 13 million barrels per day, after which the kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production,”

OBSERVATION - a drop in the bucket.

__________________________________

Central / South America General-

The United Nations human rights office has expressed concern about rising violence around Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, saying 99 people have been reported killed in recent fighting between rival gangs in the Cite Soleil district alone. The UN agencies said some gangs even deny access to drinking water and food in order to control the population, aggravating malnutrition.

OBSERVATION - Haiti is a hell hole that will never cease to be a hell hole. I mention things degenerating there because the root cause of the violence is lack of food and clean water. The gangs are just the outward expression of the shortages. Fast forward to the US in the indescribable future. What is happing in Haiti will be seen in America’s urban areas. In fact, some of the raids on stores and rampant shoplifting are “” examples of what will happen when things go sideways. See also the 2020 riots. It can happen here.
______________________________________

Libya -

Armed convoy headed from Al-Zawiya to Tripoli, reportedly to install Bashagha as PM, return Sanalla as NOC head and oust Dbeibah and his government
Libya - critical hours ahead as Tripoli forces loyal to unity government are mobilizing too.

OBSERVATION - Libya’s back on the menu boys. Pullout of Russian affiliated forces has destabilized the country and any resumption of the civil war may have outside impacts on oil prices.

_____________________________________

Misc of Note -

According to Mayor Eric Adams of New York City, Russia could now launch a nuclear weapon at residents. Adamas said New Yorkers need to “pack a bag” and “know where your medicines are located” just in case.
“Let’s be prepared,” Adams stated, referring to a public service announcement (PSA) video that the Big Apple released the other day with advice about what to do in the event of a radioactive blast. The emergency management agency put out a 90-second PSA weeks after Russian state media claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin could wipe out the United States.
The bizarre timing of the video is raising questions, with one official simply saying: ‘We really didn’t want to put this off.”

OBSERVATION - Monitoring this interestingly timed PSA. Remote chance that the GGR is telegraphing its next move.

____________________________________