Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Had to take a day off. Culling the information can really be a downer. I remember my early posts when life was simpler and the threats less urgent. Seeing all these areas and the potential for affecting us here in America, one cannot help but to be upset.

But to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro declared his nation would not be signing the World Health Organization’s Pandemic Treaty, which is being pushed by the globalist elites and their puppets in the White House. This comes ahead of the WHO’s plans to discuss implementation of the treaty at the World Health Assembly from May 22-28.

OBSERVATION - While under much dispute, the ‘treaty’ amendments undermine the US by taking over actions now currently directed by the CDC. From wuhan, we’ve all seen how how extra legislative and extra law full their ‘edicts’ were. This would be transferred to the WHO. Many see this as a massive power-grab that eventually will not be limited to pandemic responses. This is an opening play towards the greater goal for the New World Order of usurping national sovereignty and bringing the world under the role of a single government.
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Wuhan virus -

Wuhan lockdowns continue in the city of Shanghai, a crucial part of China’s financial apparatus, is requiring supermarkets and shops to shut down and ordering residents to stay home until at least Tuesday. Reuters reported. that Shanghai’s central Jingan district, which plays a crucial role in the financialization of the Chinese economy, is forcing these new restrictions while also planning to carry out mass covid testing into the first half of the next week.
Exit permits given to residents in the region, which allow people to leave their homes, will be suspended. The local district government did not provide an explanation for the passes’ suspension.

And in the US they just can’t give it up. “We’re just not done yet” with COVID, Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus coordinator, told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday:
“Because, look, we have a lot of infections out there. It’s still quite disruptive. And 300 people a day are still dying of this disease. That’s way too much,” Jha said.

OBSERVATION - Someone need to remind the good Dr. that the science is masks don’t work and neither do the jabs.
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Economy - The United States is facing its worst pilot shortage in recent memory, forcing airlines to cut flights just as travelers are returning after more than two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Covid pandemic halted pilot hiring as training and licensing slowed. Airlines handed out early retirement packages to thousands of pilots and other employees aimed to cut labor bills when travel demand cratered during the depths of crisis. Industry experts indicate it could take as much as 5 years to regain all the pilots it needs.

Market analysts are on the watch this week after stocks dipped into bear territory last week. Before the pandemic, the last time the economy experienced a bear market was during the financial crisis more than a decade ago. That bear market lasted for a brutal 517 days.

Top of the list are concerns over rising indicators of an impending recession. Various forecasters are trying to put their thumb on exactly what the chances of a full-blown recession are. A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private academic group, as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Some see it as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of this year. If GDP contracts again, it would signal a recession, although a survey of forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found that the consensus was that GDP will grow by 2.3% annually this quarter.

Overall, last week’s sell-off in the stock market doesn’t mean a recession is coming, but it does show that there is a lack of confidence among investors about the future of the economy and that the markets are essentially pricing in a recession.
“I don’t think you can have a completely benign soft landing of the economy at this point,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp. “We’re either going to have a weak economy or a recession.”

The average U.S. price of regular-grade gasoline spiked 33 cents over the past two weeks to $4.71 per gallon. Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg Survey said Sunday that the price jump comes amid higher crude oil costs and tight gasoline supplies. The average price at the pump is $1.61 higher than it was one year ago.

The first shipment of 70,000 lbs worth of baby formula from Germany arrived in Indianapolis on Sunday morning. It will not be hitting store shelves, but being directed instead to hospitals, doctors, home health care facilities, and pharmacies in regions “where the needs are most acute,”.

OBSERVATION - The US, allegedly a first world country, has a third world problem with baby food. These aircraft loads are but a drop in the bucket compared to the needs of the country, nothing but PR BS.

Sara Menker, the CEO of agriculture analytics firm Gro Intelligence, told the UN Security Council that the Russia-Ukraine war was not the cause of a food security crisis but “simply added fuel to a fire that was long burning.” She estimated that the world has about 10 weeks of wheat supplies stored.

OBSERVATION - I know I’ve harped about food shortages a lot lately, and i want to avoid unbiased doom porn. However, food shortage warnings I’m seeing now in a way resemble the early warnings about infant formula shortages last year - based on the kinds of supply shortages plaguing other food sector industries. Key point - the biden shutdown of 40% of infant formula production wasn’t on the radar at that stage. This just goes to show how a ‘black swan’ event like the Abbot plant shut down could devastate a sector. If another ‘black swan’ events hits grain production - the dire cries of famine won’t be so tinfoil hat doom porn. Lets keep a close eye on this one - and stock up now.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden Sends Message to Kim Jong Un: “Hello. Period”

Only 39% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s performance as president, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research, dipping from already negative ratings a month earlier.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Apart from some continued vandalism, Antifa actions with proabort protests have been generally underwhelming. Watching today to see if the USSC does issue the final on Roe v Wade and if that triggers a more violent response. Responses from the leak suggest that Antifa violence won’t gain traction if / when that occurs.

H.R. 350, or the “Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act,” passed by a margin of 222-203. The vote was almost entirely along party lines, with every single House Democrat and a lone House Republican— the reprehensible RINO Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois— voting to approve the measure.
The proposal would reportedly create “domestic terrorism offices” within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of Justice (DOJ), and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), according to The Hill. The offices would be tasked with “monitoring and scrutinizing potential terror activity,” with a heavy emphasis on terror activity deemed motivated by “white supremacist” or “neo-Nazi” sentiments.
Democrats have predictably framed the bill as a necessary response to the mass shooting perpetrated by an avowed white supremacist at a Buffalo, New York, grocery store last week. The perpetrator, however, characterized himself online as being in the “mild-moderate-authoritarian Left category.”

OBSERVATION - Folks, I see this as another step by the socialists/progressives in control of the govt to execute a crack down on Americans in the near future. My biggest concerns are that they may attempt this in time to disrupt the midterm elections in an attempt to maintain control congress.

The Supreme Court could issue its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Center as soon as Monday, according to a report from Fox News. The Supreme Court issues opinions on Mondays at 10 a.m. ET., meaning the next possible day the opinion could drop is May 23.
NOTE - as of writing this post, nothing has hit the wires.
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China -

In Japan today, Biden said he’d be willing to use military force to defend Taiwan.

The Taiwanese government expressed regret Sunday that the Biden administration has chosen to exclude it from its new Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF), a key regional initiative being launched by President Biden in Japan on Monday.
“As an important economy that plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, Taiwan is definitely qualified for inclusion in the IPEF,” Taiwan’s Central News Agency quoted the island democracy’s foreign ministry as saying in a release.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Observers had thought NK would pop a nuke or ICBM this weekend. NK may be too distracted in dealing with wuhan to have maintained that option. Still on the table in the near term

A large number of North Koreans including leader Kim Jong Un attended a funeral for a top official, state media reported Monday, as the country maintained the much-disputed claim that its suspected coronavirus outbreak is subsiding.
KCNA said Monday that 167,650 new fever cases had been detected in the past 24-hour period, a notable drop from the peak of about 390,000 reported about one week ago. It said one more person died and that the fever’s fatality rate was 0.002%.

OBSERVATION - These numbers and outlook are likely skewed to make Kim look good

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Japan -

The Chinese ship sailed through the Osumi Strait on Thursday, while the Russian ship sailed through La Pérouse Strait on Wednesday. The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 41st Chinese Naval Escort Taskforce sailed through the Miyako Strait on Thursday while en route to the Gulf of Aden, according to Japan Ministry of Defense releases. This and other naval activity round Japan are part of an increase presence of Russian and Chinese naval forces in the Japan area.

OBSERVATION - Rather than dissuade Japan from taking a more passive approach in the region, continued tactics like this by Russia and China are having the opposite effect, driving Japan to expand its defensive and OFFENSIVE capabilities.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now ending the third month of the war and proceeding to enter the fourth.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the military is building new bases in its Western Military District. This is in response to “NATO aggression” via strategic bomber flights, maritime patrols, and NATO exercises. “By the end of the year, 12 military units and divisions will be established in the Western Military District,” Shoigu said.(FO)

Economic Impact -
- Over the weekend, Russia’s Gazprom cut off natural gas supplies to Finland.
- The ruble has regained strength due largely to Russia insistence that gas payments be made in it.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers scattered throughout the 10 day forecast

Polish PM arrived in Kyiv and addressed the legislature over the weekend.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Relatively quiet weekend, with few gains.
- Continued but slower gains by Russian forces around Popasna (more below).
- Novoselivka captured by Russians, near Lyman
- Russian troops entered Oskil following Ukraine withdrawal.

But that they have not been able to capture many of the towns or complex terrain around the area just yet, and Ukrainian forces have been able to establish more complex defensive lines in the days since the initial breakthrough, leading to a slowing/fizzling out of the offensive.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces maintained their positions to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the Russian border and conducted air and artillery strikes north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the Russian border.

Donetsk Oblast NEW -
As the battle has morphed, I’m separating what was once the southern portion of the Kharkiv Front to a new zone. This covers the Izyum to southwest of Popasna areas of combat.

Russian forces focused on offensive operations around Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian army shelled infrastructure near Lyman, Ozerne and Dibrova settlements,

Russia also launched attacks on the eastern side of Severodonetsk, but were unsuccessful.

Attacks north and west out of Popasna Russian forces had no success at Oleksandropillya, Lypove and Trypillya

The links below depicts some of the most recent activity.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTJ_OdGacAE_cXZ?format=jpg&name=medium

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTQLCmcWAAAvWiA?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian airstrikes and artillery barrages stuck along most of the LOC in this region. Separatist forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic claimed that they took control of Novoselivka, a village in southern Donetsk Oblast.

Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report. Analysts looking at the possibility that forces are preparing for an offensive to capture the whole of the Kherson Oblast.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine slowed considerably over the weekend as it appears that Ukraine forces have stiffened their defense and Russian forces are switching to more conventional units following the breakthrough attacks by VDV and mercenaries.

Things will continue to be dynamic in eastern Ukraine. I expect that Russia will continue to claw more territory away from Ukraine, but at an increasing cost of men and equipment. If one looks at the larger map, the Popasna/Severodonetsk pocket is pretty small - far, far smaller than the Russian gains in the initial phase of the war, yet having the highest concentration of forces and the highest priority of effort.

The Russian Popasna/Severodonetsk effort has caused a pause in Ukraines offensives outside of Kharkiv and Izyum. Both forces seem to have switched to an economy of force operation to allow forces and resources to be diverted to eastern ukraine.

Russian ‘strategic’ missile strikes continue to be minimally effective, but not successful in shutting off resupply of Ukraine. Ukraine continues its national mobilization of a million men and these will start reaching the battle field in larger numbers over the next month. Equipment supply issues to these activated forces are in part, alleviated by equipment being supplied by the rest of Europe as well as that captured in good shape from the Russians.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

Ukrainian authorities are reportedly strengthening border security between Ukraine and Transnistria. The local Ukrainian border guard detachment announced new restrictions prohibiting the civilian use of drones, night vision equipment, and navigation of small boats in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are protecting the border and conducting counter-sabotage measures.
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Europe / NATO General -

Lithuania has become the second European country within a month to have electricity supplies from Russia halted.
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Israel -

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah on Sunday threatened that the terror group will fire rockets at Israel if the Jerusalem Flag March goes ahead as planned next Sunday. “I warn the enemy against committing such crimes and these steps,” he said in a statement.

OBSERVATION - The Flag March is one of the events that triggered the massive rocket attack by Hamas last year. This year could be a repeat given the west bank violence and uprisings on the temple mount during this past Ramadan.

Israel has raised the state of alert on the northern front with Syria and Lebanon - probably due to the assassination of Sayad Khodai. See Iran below on his assassination.
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Iran -

Iran’s president has promised to take revenge after a colonel in the powerful Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) was shot dead in Tehran on Sunday.
Two gunmen on a motorbike opened fire at Sayad Khodai as he sat in a car outside his home, state media reported. Col Khodai was a member of the elite Quds Force, the IRGC’s shadowy overseas operations arm, they said. Iran blamed that assassination on Israel.
Israeli media reported on Monday that Col Khodai was involved in planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, without giving their sources.

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Both Azerbaijan and Armenia claimed that the other fired toward its forces along the border between the two countries over the weekend.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claimed that on Friday evening Armenian armed forces fired on Azerbaijani forces in the Kalbajar District, adding that Azerbaijani forces took “adequate retaliatory measures.”
The Armenian Defense Ministry denied the claims, calling it misinformation.

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Misc of Note -

MONKEY POX - This may soon warrant its own topic line, but moved it here for now.

Asked whether the monkeypox outbreak is a global health emergency, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove from the WHO, says “it is a containable situation”.
“Transmission is really happening from skin to skin contact, most of the people who have ben identified have more of a mild disease,” she says.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. David Heymann, who formerly headed WHO’s emergencies department, said the leading theory to explain the spread of the disease was sexual transmission among gay and bisexual men at two raves held in Spain and Belgium (with a possible third in the Canary Islands). “We know monkeypox can spread when there is close contact with the lesions of someone who is infected, and it looks like sexual contact has now amplified that transmission,” said Heymann.

Belgium has become the first country to introduce a compulsory 21-day monkeypox quarantine - as 14 countries now confirm outbreaks o f the viral disease and doctors warn of a ‘significant rise’ in UK cases

OBSERVATION - Skin to skin, and try as they might to protect the protected class, the homo/bisexual link to this outbreak is readily apparent.

ONE BIG QUESTION - Who/How did those infections get to these ‘raves’ in the first place?
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Black Swans -

The Government Accountability Office (GA) has warned that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) lacks the resources needed ahead of what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.

OBSERVATION - So much of our economy is teetering on a razor thin edge, a significant natural disaster could throw much into a tail spin. We just don’t have the reserves necessary, having thrown them to so many other ‘emergencies’. The ‘big one’ on the west coast, or a major series of hurricane strikes for example could knock the legs out from under us.

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Globalism / Great Reset -
More and more countries are beginning to stop food exports in the face of shortages in their own countries. The most recent example is Malaysia’s Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said the South East Asian country will stop exporting as many as 3.6m chickens every month “until domestic prices and production stabilize”. “The government’s priority is our own people,” he said in a statement.
Some political ‘analysts’ are calling this “food nationalism” and are trying to make the case that they are being selfish looking out for the concerns and need of their own people rather than be good global citizens.

OBSERVATION - Looking after one’s citizens needs is a very legitimate purpose of government. GGR doesn’t recognize this function - under its socialistic doctrines all must be miserable.

Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum (WEF), on Monday greeted members of the global elites gathered in Davos, Switzerland, with the salute: “Political, economic, social and ecological dimensions of every issue today are intertwined… the future is not just happening, the future is built by us, by a powerful community as you here in this room. We have the means to improve the state of the world,. . . “ Economics along with climate change and preserving nature were key mentions in his speech.
Schwab went on to outline what he viewed as two conditions for such an improvement to occur. The first condition relied on his vision of global leaders as “stakeholders” of the future. The second condition, Schwab said, was collaboration within the “community” of global leaders.

OBSERVATION - Much on exploiting current global crises and the powers that be assembled in Davos to coordinate their actions and responses to further the agenda.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla may have forgotten he was on camera this week, as he dazzled the audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos with fantasies of ingestible computer chips that signal authorities when a drug has been digested.
“It is a, basically biological chip that is in the tablet. And once we take the tablet and dissolves into the stomach, sends a signal that you took the table. So imagine the applications of that – the compliance. The insurance companies know that the medicines patients should take, they take them.”

OBSERVATION - The level os control of one’s personal lives they desire continues to be astounding.

A guest of the World Economic Forum’s annual summit in Davos called for a “recalibration” of freedom of speech to combat “online violence” and “increasing polarization.”
“We are finding ourselves in a place where we have increasing polarization everywhere and everything feels binary when it doesn’t need to be,” Australia’s “eSafety Commissioner” Julie Inman Grant said on Monday. “So, I think we’re going to have to think about a recalibration of a whole range of human rights that are playing out online, from freedom of speech to the freedom to be free from online violence.”

OBSERVATION - The GGR et al MUST police free speech, it is the only way they can control the sheeple. Cannot allow competing narratives interfering with their goals.

SPEAKING OF FREE SPEECH - Monday, Nina Jankowicz (Mary Poppins of Disinformation) would have us believe that she had hoped to spend her time as chief of the Disinformation Governance Board, which was part of the Department of Homeland Security, countering alleged disinformation that had “become entrenched in domestic politics.” Now, wait a minute. On May 1, CNN’s Dana Bash asked Mayorkas, “Will American citizens be monitored?” Mayorkas’ answer was unequivocal and reassuring: “No. The board does not have any operational authority or capability. What it will do is gather together best practices in addressing the threat of disinformation from foreign state adversaries from the cartels and disseminate those best practices to the operators that have been executing in addressing this threat for years.”

OBSERVATION - The disinformation “lie” that Americans are not being targeted.

David Beasley, executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Programme said during a WEF panel discussion that Russia’s failure to reopen Ukraine’s ports is in effect a “declaration of war” on the globe’s food security. He said this also threatens to unleash an unprecedented migrant crisis.

OBSERVATION- I’m becoming more and more convinced that a food ‘shortage’ manipulation is coming before the end of the year as another mechanism to drive so called emergency declarations that strip rights from individuals and bring them more under the control of government and in turn the GGR/WEF. Control the food, control the mass goes the adage.
THERE’S MORE FOOD RELATED - The Economist forecasted in a dire gloom and doom frontpage story last week entitled, The coming food catastrophe, “The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted, and people will starve.”

While covering the World Economic Forum’s annual summit in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday journalist Jack Posobiec was given a message in no uncertain terms — “you are not welcome here, you are not one of us.” Posobiec, a former Navy intelligence officer turned conservative journalist, was detained and thoroughly searched along with his entire film crew. The detention took place while the film crew was trying to have dinner and recharge at a local restaurant.
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Economy -
Americans are becoming less supportive of punishing Russia for launching its invasion of Ukraine if it comes at the expense of the U.S. economy, a sign of rising anxiety over inflation and other challenges, according to a new poll. While broad support for U.S. sanctions has not faltered, the balance of opinion on prioritizing sanctions over the economy has shifted, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Kalifornia Governor Newsom is pushing for more water conservation efforts and warning that the government could force mandatory water limitations across California if efforts don’t get better over the coming months. “Every water agency across the state needs to take more aggressive actions to communicate about the drought emergency and implement conservation measures,” Newsom said in a statement.

OBSERVATION - Looking deeper, Kalifornia water supplies (both state and federal) for agriculture remain severely cut, forcing thousands of acres to sit idle. The central valley is a huge food producer and loss of those crops will hit us in the pocket book..

A recent set of reports from the Institute for Energy Research digs into the supply and demand figures for liquid fuels in the coming months and the news is not encouraging. The title of the report comes in the form of a worrisome question. Will there be enough diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline this summer?
Refiners are planning to spend the summer increasing jet fuel and diesel production instead of gasoline because refining oil into diesel or jet fuel is currently more profitable than making gasoline despite those fuels historically being the least profitable parts of the barrel. Currently, the profit margin on distillates is nearly $60 a barrel, while the margin to make gasoline is $34. As a result, it is unclear what the availability or price of gasoline will be this summer as Americans increase gasoline demand by taking vacations as school lets out. Some are projecting the average price of gas to go over $6/gallon later this summer.

OBSERVATION - We currently have 10 percent fewer refineries for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel than we had in 2016. Some shut down for ‘green’ biofuel conversion, others just shut down due to burdensome regulations. To make matter worse, refinery capacity dropped by 4.5 percent between 2020 and 2021 to 17.7 million barrels per day. That’s the lowest level seen since 2013. biden administration hostility towards the oil industry will not bring refineries back on line any time soon. In fact, biden has stated the goal is to force prices so high people will want to switch to the ‘green’ economy. Biden: “When it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an INCREDIBLE transition”

BTW - The cost of diesel fuel has increased 75 percent over the past year. The national average for diesel fuel is $5.61 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association’s (AAA) May 16 report. In the less than two years since I returned to the American Redoubt, diesel prices have more than doubled. These prices will all show up soon in your grocery and other products you buy.

AND THERE’S MORE FUEL RELATED - The Biden administration is in talks to tap to into a federal diesel reserve to address energy shortfalls, an official with knowledge of the matter confirmed to The Hill Monday.
An interagency team of officials has been monitoring East Coast diesel supplies and developing policy recommendations to address them, the official said.
“The team has prepared emergency declarations for President authorize release from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve if conditions deteriorate,” they added. “We would call this a bridge to deal with short term supply shortfalls.”

OBSERVATION - This will weaken our ability to fight a war or deal with a real crisis - a deliberate move to weaken the country by biden, just like drawing down the strategic reserve to less than 50% capacity.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Biden’s Justice Dept has appointed a new federal immigration judge who served on the board of directors of a George Soros-funded far-left group (Detention Watch Network) whose stated goal is to defund US law & border enforcement. Judge Romy Lerner
Detention Watch Network receives funding from Soros’ Open Society Foundations. The far-left group calls for the defunding of US law & border enforcement. Newly appointed immigration judge Romy Lerner was one of the main contacts on its nonprofit filing.

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CW2/Domestic violence -
The FBI has released a report on “active shooter incidents” in 2021. The report is interesting, in part because it documents a sharp rise in such incidents after Joe Biden’s inauguration. One possible reason is the covid shutdowns, which are known to have contributed to mental health issues. Another, more direct reason, is the cumulative impact of Soros-backed DA’s who are not prosecuting criminals and the criminals are getting the idea that they can act without consequences. The administration is supporting this band of lawlessness.

Going back to the infamous letter and conspiracy by the National School Boards Association (NSBA) to have parents investigated as domestic terrorists, just released demands from the NSBA to the White House included calling for the deployment of the Army National Guard and the military police to monitor school board meetings, according to an early draft letter the organization’s independent review released Friday.
In contrast to the final version, the draft of the NSBA letter said, “We ask that the Army National Guard and its Military Police be deployed to certain school districts and related events where students and school personnel have been subjected to acts and threats of violence.”

OBSERVATION - Many local school boards have left this ‘association’ due to the final letter. The contents of the now released draft should wake others up and send them out the door as well.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments
The United States military and other Biden administration officials are considering sending special forces troops to Ukraine to guard the recently reopened U.S. embassy in Kyiv as the Russian invasion continues.
According to U.S. officials, President Joe Biden has not been approached about the plans yet, but if they are approved, the special forces troops would only serve as defense and security of the embassy, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.

OBSERVATION - Normally, a Marine contingent provides security, however reports suggest that the US considers the tactical situation is more challenging than the Marines can handle, hence the switch to the Special Forces.

US has more than 102,000 troops in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: top US military official. Prewar it was about 85k troops.

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China -
Another day, another biden white house walk back. The White House was quick to put out a statement cleaning up Biden’s comments regarding willingness to go to war with China over Taiwan:
After Biden says “yes” the US is willing to get involved militarily in Taiwan, a WH official says “As the President said, our policy has not changed. He reiterated our One China Policy and our commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. He also reiterated our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself.”

Chinese government officials are easing lockdowns in the port city of Shanghai, however business leaders are complaining about a labor shortage to work at various transportation centers.
OBSERVATION - Expect renewed shipping delays as this gets sorted out again. There are currently three-week wait times at many major ports in North America.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea scrambled air defense fighters as four Chinese and four Russian combat aircraft conducted a joint air patrol operation through its air defense identification zone. The flight entered via the Sea of Japan on the east side of the Korean peninsula but did not penetrate South Korea’s territorial airspace. The aircraft were a mix of long-range bombers and fighters. Neither Russia nor China recognizes the South Korean ADIZ.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia has learned from some of its errors and now appears to be gaining a slight advantage in the fight in eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov said Russian President Putin survived an assassination attempt at the beginning of the war. “There were attacks on Putin…This is nonpublic information. Absolutely unsuccessful attempt, but it really took place… That was about 2 months ago,”

Logistics -
- Unconfirmed reports from the Ukrainian General Staff that is reporting that Russian forces are withdrawing old T-62 tanks from storage to form new BTGs.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- In the first three months of its “special military operation,” Russia has likely suffered a similar death toll to that experienced by the Soviet Union during its entire nine-year war in Afghanistan, the British Defense Ministry said in its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine. About 15,000 Russians died in the Afghan war that ended in 1989.
- Unconfirmed - Colonel Alexey Smirnov, the commander of Russian Army’s 98th Airborne Division, killed in Ukraine.
- Unidentified assailants continued attacks against military recruitment offices in Russia

Economic Impact -
- Starbucks will exit Russia after 15 years, closing 130 licensed cafes
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers increasing throughout the 10 day forecast

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia has increased the intensity of its operations in the Donbas as it seeks to encircle Severodonetsk, Lyschansk, and Rubizhne. It achieved some more success on the ground and at present the northern and southern axes of this operation are separated by approximately 25 km of Ukrainian-held territory. The town of Lyman (north of Severodonetsk) came under withering artillery bombardment overnight as well as Russian attempts to capture that city as well.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army shelled Bilopillya of Sumy region

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces conducted a counter attack on the northern outskirts of Ternova town in Kharkiv region, goal is to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing towards Vovchansk and critical supply routes.
Ukraine intelligence is noting the redeployment of DNR and LNR troops away from their previous positions conducting frontal assaults in eastern Ukraine to northern Kharkiv to hold defensive lines against the Ukrainian counteroffensive indicates Russia’s prioritization of slowing the Ukrainian counteroffensive, at the cost of reinforcing Russian offensive operations in the east.

Donetsk Oblast NEW -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian forces intensified air and artillery strikes throughout southeastern Ukraine.
Heavy fighting all around the Sieverodonetsk pocket. Lyman hit with intense artillery barrages overnight. Lyman remains one of the only Ukrainian held area on the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, along with Severodonetsk. Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have gained a foot hold in the northern part of Lyman.
The towns of Toshkivka and Ustynivka outside of Sieverodonetsk are facing attacks.
Attacks out of Izyum continue to be stalled. Russia attempted an unsuccessful ground assault on Dovhenke, about 20 km southeast of Izyum.
Russia continues to push its successes after punching through Ukrainian defenses around Popasna, specifically around Toshkivka, Komyshuvakha, Nyrkove, Vasylivka, Nova Kamyanka, and Myronivsky, in a likely attempt to push westward toward Bakhmut.

The following link provides some idea of the current push by Russia
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZvwKuXoAAxkho?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces made gains near the Donetsk-Luhansk administrative border and took control of Mironovsky, southeast of Bakhmut. The capture of Mironovsky will enable further attempts to drive toward Bakhmut from both the south and west.

Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report. Analysts looking at the possibility that forces are preparing for an offensive to capture the whole of the Kherson Oblast.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine. Combat area is increasingly urban and an environment that Russia has done poorly fighting in so far.

The Russia effort is focusing on gaining control of the Luhansk Oblast portion of the Donbas region. As the following link depicts, the Ukraine pocket is very small and the Russia effort to capture this small pocket has been intense.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/5/24/3f7fc5e1-f2e8-4565-bbac-b9685e501da3.png

If Russia is able to control this pocket, putin/Russia could claim a modicum of ‘victory’. However, if the reports of Russia taking T-62 tanks out of mothballs are accurate, Russia is desperate to maintain the war effort. This is not outrageous as there have been confirmed reports of BMP-1s showing up in Russian units. Both of these pieces of armor are grossly out of date and vastly under equipped for modern battlefield conditions.

Russian progress has occurred in surges but in small steps, suggesting that they are paying close attention not to our run their logistics. They have also increased the intensity of artillery and air support, both indicating an improvement of coordination between the elements and giving the ground forces better protection to move forward. Already, reports of successful Ukraine strikes on Russian logistics are increasing.
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Belarus -

Russia has deployed Iskander missiles in Brest region of Belarus, 50kms to the border of Ukraine and essentially right on the border with Poland.

OBSERVATION - These rockets could serve to target Ukrainan supply chains coming in from Poland as well as Poland itself.
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Europe / NATO General -

Lithuania confirms it will withdraw its ambassador from Russia on June 1 and not appoint a new one.

Erdogan says Turkey - Greece partnership council meeting will no longer take place. “I don’t think US will make its decision on F-16s [purchase for Turkey] by looking at what Mitsotakis would say”
OBSERVATION - Turkey is close to burning a lot of bridges with NATO as Erdogan is straying very close to splitting off from the alliance.
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Israel -

The Biden administration secretly mediates between Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to achieve an agreement that will complete the transfer of the islands of Tiran and the Red Sea to Saudi sovereignty and include a security agreement of some kind if the Saudis are giving control of the strait.

From reportedly Gaza sources, terror groups are preparing for an attack on Israel for next week’s controversial flag march, as all regional actors on high alert; ‘We will confront and never allow harm to Al Aqsa,’ Hamas official says. Sources in Gaza warned Israel the Palestinian enclave’s terrorist groups are preparing for possible confrontations, including the launching of rocket fire, if Israel’s nationalist flag parade goes through next Sunday. “Hamas’ military wing is on high alert and ready to carry out the leadership’s orders for a possible confrontation with Israel if the flag parade, expected on the 29th of the month [Sunday], moves very close to the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Western Wall plaza,” a source in the Gaza Strip said on Monday.
The Jerusalem Day celebrations, marking Israel’s victory during the 1967 Six-Day War and the reunification of East and West Jerusalem, include a parade in which tens of thousands of Israelis march with flags through the city’s center and then through the Old City while entering it through the Damascus Gate.

OBSERVATION - Remember, this flag march is what kicked off Hama’s missile war last year.

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Iran -

Iran, which is again suffering from widespread protests against the religious dictatorship that has wrecked the economy before economic sanctions became a factor. The current demonstrations began three weeks ago and the government sought to stop them by just arresting protest leaders, rather than using IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) gunfire to kill protesters until the protests stopped. The government has made lethal responses to demonstrations before and, while those temporarily halted public protests, they increased the number of Iranians determined to overthrow the religious leaders who promised democracy after a popular uprising overthrew the monarchy in 1979. The protestors are not only demanding an end to the inflation and frequent increases in food prices, but also the religious dictatorship. Apparently senior religious leaders fear that using force this time might trigger a major nationwide uprising to overthrow the government. The secret IRGC opinion surveys show that anti-government sentiment has been climbing for years and the number of “unstable (very angry) Iranians” has reached dangerous levels. (Strategypage)

OBSERVATION - Continuing to brew under the surface, the Iranian citizenry isn’t happy. Food price increases and shortages are just the latest. Though much of Irans’s economic woes have been due to sanctions, the mullahs have made it worse by diverting funds to their proxy fighters, missile/arms programs and nuclear program - which do not benefit the general Iranian.
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Saudi Arabia -
See Israel above.
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Syria -

Erdogan says a new Turkish military operation will soon begin to establish a safe zone 30km deep in Northern Syria where Turkey has no control. He means remaining YPG / SDF controlled areas.
The president of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), Ilham Ahmad, demands the US and Russia stop the Turkish attacks on NE Syria
Link to map showing control of Syria -
https://syria.liveuamap.com/pics/2022/05/23/22446312_0.jpg

OBSERVATION - Turkey started this ‘safe zone’ operation several years ago. As the link shows, the Kurds control a large chunk of Northeast Syria (as well as much of northern Iraq). So the question is how much of an operation is he willing to commit to? BTW, Turkey has invaded northern Iraq of recent going after Kurds there as well.

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Turkey -
High-level delegations from Sweden and Finland are due to arrive in Turkey on Tuesday evening for talks with the foreign ministry about their applications to join Nato, the NTV news channel reports. The visit follows Turkey’s objection to the two countries joining Nato.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously said neither countries should bother visiting to try to convince Turkey of their bids.
SEE ALSO - Europe / NATO General above.

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Misc of Note -

MONKEY POX -
The World Health Organization does not have evidence that the monkeypox virus has mutated, a senior executive at the U.N. agency said on Monday, noting the infectious disease that is endemic in west and central Africa has tended not to change.

OBSERVATION - Monkey Pox is a nothing burger and hasn’t spread outside the gay/bisexual community from which the current flap has developed. Stick a fork in it, its dead and unless something dramatic happens I’m not looking at commenting further.

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Yesterday’s post was OBE and after today, and I’ll be back after Memorial day. I’ll be on the road decorating family grave sites her in various parts of the Redoubt.

Keep alert, things in the country and world are changing rapidly and we all to be on our A game.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to be the “beginning of the third world war” that could spell the end of civilisation, the veteran philanthropist and former financier George Soros has warned. In a ferocious attack on Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Soros warned that autocratic regimes were in the ascendant and the global economy was heading for a depression. “The invasion may have been the beginning of the third world war and our civilisation may not survive it,” he said.
“The invasion of Ukraine didn’t come out of the blue. The world has been increasingly engaged in a struggle between two systems of governance that are diametrically opposed to each other: open society and closed society.”

OBSERVATION - Interesting ‘take’ on the Ukraine war by Soros. Many GGR/WEF have viewed it as another vehicle by which to leverage the eventual take over of the world.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said “oil supply right now is relatively in balance,” during a panel session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
During a World Economic Forum panel on the energy crisis, German vice-chancellor Robert Habeck said countries should resist temptation to look after their own interests first. He added sustainability requires change to the “rule of the markets.” - ie rules of the GGR/WEF

World Health Organization (W.H.O.) might not be able to muster the support it needs for a sweeping “global pandemic treaty” at the World Health Assembly currently in progress, but amendments proposed by the Biden administration to reduce the influence of member state governments over W.H.O.’s disease outbreak declarations are still on the table. The Washington Post wrote that W.H.O. is facing a “visceral, passionate online backlash that falsely accuses the World Health Organization of conspiring to take power from national governments.”

Yuval Noah Harari speaking at the WEF, “God Is Dead It Just Takes Awhile to Get Rid of the Body”. Harari is a lead advisor for Klaus Schwab and his doctrine is scary beyond even this comment.

Speaking about small and medium businesses in Davos, Norwegian finance CEO Kjerstin Braathen says energy transition will create energy shortages and inflationary pressures, but this “pain” is “worth it.”

On the World Economic Forum’s panel on a “Reimagined Global Tax System,” Oxfam executive director Gabriela Bucher calls for a global 25 per cent corporate tax rate and complains that countries are lowering taxes to be competitive.

Alibaba Group President J. Michael Evans is able to boast about new tracking technology openly at the World Economic Forum’s Davos summit. The globalist elites no longer concern themselves with hiding in the shadows. They announce their intentions to the public and dare us to tell them they’re wrong.
The “individual carbon footprint tracker” Evans described to the audience is wrong. Watch:
Alibaba Group president J. Michael Evans boasts at the World Economic Forum about the development of an “individual carbon footprint tracker” to monitor what you buy, what you eat, and where/how you travel.

OBSERVATION - Necessary data for the implementation of a ‘social’ credit system.

Bridgewater Associates co-CIO Bob Prince said on Tuesday he believes the economy is “on the cusp of” stagflation during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland...
When asked by Bloomberg TV if he believes stagflation will hit the United States, Prince responded “we’re on the cusp of it” — and argued that the bond market has not properly recognized the threat. After being pressed on the timing of the stagflation, Prince appeared to avoid making a prediction.

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Wuhan virus -

Disease trying to maintain relevance as there are some threats of returning to masks for schools this fall in some urban areas.
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Economy -
West Texas Intermediate futures traded near $111 a barrel. The American Petroleum Institute reported that inventories of the motor fuel fell by 4.22 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the figures. Stockpiles are at the lowest level for this time of the year since 2013.

The Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity index dropped 23 points from a positive reading of 14 in April to a minus nine, the lowest reading since May 2020, when much of the economy was still reeling from the onset of the pandemic and lockdowns. This slow down was confirmed by a survey from the Richmond Fed indicating that factory activity contracted in the mid-Atlantic region in May. The collapse into negative territory was unexpected. Analysts polled by Econoday estimated the index would hold steady at 14. Negative readings on the index indicate that activity declined for the month.
The Richmond Fed report comes hot on the heels of reports from the New York Fed and the Philadelphia Fed that came in much worse than expected. New York Fed’s Empire State survey of manufacturing showed business activity plunged. The index of general business conditions fell 36.2 points to a negative reading of 11.6 in May. New orders declined and fell into negative territory. Shipments fell at the fastest pace since early in the pandemic and also turned negative. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes moved lower but were still elevated, indicating strong inflationary pressures remain despite the slowdown in orders.

US inflation is burning at its fastest rates in decades but the Federal Reserve will not fix the issue by raising interest rates, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told Bloomberg on Monday.
“Raising interest rates is not going to solve the problem of inflation,” he said on Bloomberg Television in an interview in Davos, Switzerland where he was attending the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. “It’s not going to create more food. It’s going to make it more difficult because you aren’t going to be able to make the investments,” he said. The world’s economy could use supply-side intervention, the Nobel Prize winner said.

OBSERVATION - Supply side economics is a strange position to hold for a WEF Davos attendee

Federal Reserve at ’its June policy meeting is expected to rate hike by 50 basis points. The Fed has already raised interest rates by 75 basis points since March to tame inflation that’s been burning at around 40-year highs.

World bank head David Malpass told a US business event on Wednesday that it is difficult to “see how we avoid a recession”. “As we look at the global GDP... it’s hard right now to see how we avoid a recession,” “The idea of energy prices doubling is enough to trigger a recession by itself,” he added. Last month, the World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast for this year by almost a full percentage point, to 3.2%.

Goldman Sachs economists believe the chances of the economy entering a recession in the next two years are still low, even as the investment bank’s equity team has just released a recession manual for its clients on how to prepare for a downturn.

Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman “If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job, and that is what is happening now,” Ackman argued on Tuesday.
“The only way to stop today’s raging inflation is with aggressive monetary tightening or with a collapse in the economy,” Ackman continued. “There is no prospect for a material reduction in inflation unless the Fed aggressively raises rates, or the stock market crashes, catalyzing an economic collapse and demand destruction.”
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Invasion of Illegals -

Immigration laws will not be enforced in Uvalde, Texas because it has been designated a “protected area,” the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced Wednesday, the day after a mass shooting in the city killed at least twenty people.
Illegal aliens who go to Uvalde should have no fear of being arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) or Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), DHS assures in its statement:

“The site of the tragedy in Uvalde, Texas is a protected area. To the fullest extent possible, ICE and CBP will not conduct immigration enforcement activities there so that individuals, regardless of immigration status, can seek assistance, reunify with family and loved ones, and otherwise address the tragedy that occurred.”

OBSERVATION - SMH

Mexican officials say at least 60,000 migrants have amassed in the city of Juarez across the border from El Paso, Texas. El Paso deputy city manager Mario D’Agostino, says numbers are up drastically from 15,000 last month, “And we can only imagine it growing even further.” This comes as documents obtained by Axios from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) indicate the agencies are already releasing roughly 1,200 migrant adults and 1,300 family members into the U.S. every day.
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Biden / Harris watch -

biden’s approval poll numbers continue to crash, hitting new lows in recent surveys.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Antifa activity has dropped back to lower levels as the proabort protests have faded.

Authorities identified Salvador Ramos as the shooter who opened fire in Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas, on Tuesday. The 18-year-old shot and killed at least 19 students and two teachers. He shot his grandmother prior to the attack on the school.
Senate Democrats said a major floor debate on gun control is inevitable after a mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas, left at least 19 children and two adults dead, only 10 days after another massacre killed 10 people at a supermarket in Buffalo.

OBSERVATION - The left is screeching for more gun ‘laws’ to prevent this kind of violence -on top of volumes of gun laws to prevent more violence of this kind. Biden blamed legal gun owners for the actions of one deranged 18-year-old.

The FBI’s latest report on “active shooter incidents” shows a rise in 2021 during the Biden administration. More than 60 incidents occurred in 2021, up from 40 in 2020. The trend continues into 2022 with yesterday’s shooting in Texas.

Schumer said the Senate would consider amendments to domestic terror legislation to bring about stricter gun control rules. “Let me be clear. We are going to vote on gun legislation, and the Republicans could let us start doing that as soon as tomorrow…I repeat, though, we are going to vote on gun legislation.”

The Texas Association of School Boards announced Monday it will cut ties with the National School Boards Association, a decision that follows the release of a report detailing how the NSBA sent a letter to the Biden administration comparing protesting parents to domestic terrorists. AG Garland has continued to refuse to withdraw the memo during testimony to the House and Senate Judiciary committees, saying the substance of the NSBA’s concerns was valid.

Biden spoke about The George Floyd in Policing Act that Congress did not pass but he signed as an executive order. He passes laws on his own. He announced that the law raises standards but mostly it handcuffs police.
According to a White House press release, the order directs Attorney General Merrick Garland to create a National Law Enforcement Accountability Database. All federal law enforcement agencies are required to participate in the database that will include “records of officer misconduct (including convictions, terminations, de-certifications, civil judgments, resignations and retirements while under investigation for serious misconduct, and sustained complaints or records of disciplinary actions for serious misconduct), as well as commendations and awards .
OBSERVATION - Democrat ‘defund the police’ and related have been pressuring biden et al over legislation and biden took the Floyd anniversary to issue this edict. As an EO, only directly affects federal agencies, though as noted in the EO, feds will put their tenticals into local law enforcement and has the potential for the DOJ to intervene - if locals aren’t following the EO guidelines - thru legal actions.
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Domestic Terror -
According to an article from Forbes, an ISIS-linked operative in the United States was plotting to kill George W. Bush, according to an FBI search-warrant application filed on March 23rd and unsealed this week in Ohio. The operative traveled to Dallas in November to take video around his home, and was recruiting help from a ‘team of compatriots’ that he was hoping to smuggle into the country through the Mexican border.

In a conversation the suspect had over WhatsApp, he claims to have recently smuggled two people associated with Lebanon-based terrorist organization Hezbollah, into the United States, for $50,000 per person.

The suspect identified himself as being part of a group called “Al-Raed”

OBSERVATION - Using the porous border to get people across to help carry out terror plans is a big concern about biden’s lack of border control - to say the least.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments
The U.S. INDO-PACIFIC Command and the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) have chosen Guam as the site of a new missile defense command and control center. The new center will manage a wide array of ground, shipborne and space based sensors as well as control the employment of Terminal High Altitude Air Defense systems, Patriot air defense missiles, and shipboard AEGIS systems.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea says North Korea’s latest launches appears to have used an ICBM system which flew 360 km to max alt of 540. A second missile exploded in mid-air. The 3rd missile, an SRBM, flew 760 km to max alt of 60 km.

In response, US Forces Korea & South Korea carried out “a combined live-fire exercise” by firing short range ATACMS & Hyunmu missiles into the Sea of Japan(East Sea). To show their ability “to respond quickly to crisis events”
There were also unconfirmed reports that NK tested a nuclear detonation device, but that is still to be confirmed.

Intelligence still indicates a full scale nuclear test in the coming weeks.

SK reports it scrambled jets after Russian and Chinese warplanes neared its airspace during Quad summit.
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Japan -

Japan says it scrambled jets after Russian and Chinese warplanes neared its airspace during Quad summit. Defence Minister said the move by Russia and China “was a likely a provocation”

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Putin signed a decree on simplification of admission of citizens of occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions into Russian citizenship

Logistics -
- Now confirmed reports that Russian forces are withdrawing old T-62 tanks from storage. Still uncertain if they are being used to form new BTGs or being delivered to the separatist forces since Russia has supplied them with other obsolete equipment in the past.
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 4000 vehicles and other pieces of heavy equipment since it began its invasion of Ukraine three months ago. Tanks alone (697, of which destroyed: 377, damaged: 22, abandoned: 52, captured: 243). Further work by other analysts suggest that these numbers are only about 60-80% of the actual losses.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia parliament approved a law to remove the upper age limit for contractual service in the military. Until now, just Russians aged between 18 and 40 and foreigners aged 18 to 30 can enlist as professional soldiers
- Retired Major General of the Russian Air Force Kanamat Botashev was shot down and killed. Prior to his retirement, he was the commander of an aviation regiment. It is reported that he was flying for the Wagner Group of mercenaries.
- DNR separatists are refusing to assist Russia and the LNR in their fight for eastern Ukraine, saying that they have to have their forces available for their own offensive.

Economic Impact -
- The U.S. will close the last avenue for Russia to pay its billions in debt to international investors on Wednesday, making Russia’s first default on its debts in more than a century all but inevitable. The Treasury Department said it does not intend to renew the license for Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks.
- Russia’s legislature advanced a bill to nationalize foreign corporate assets which left for “anti-Russian” reasons. Yale researchers estimate 1,000 companies’ assets could be impacted.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers increasing throughout the 10 day forecast

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Following days of withering artillery fire and airstrikes, Russia gained considerable ground the past couple days in their efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Ukraine forces in eastern sector reported being outnumbered by as much as 7 to 1, with Russian forces finally coordinating their movements under artillery cover. Ukraine estimates that Russian forces already committed over 10,000 troops - approximately 25 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) composed on 300 to 500 servicemen each against Severodonetsk alone. Review of maps indicate that this is the highest concentration of Russian forces in a very small area to date.

It appears that DNR/Russia forces further to the west are prepping for an offensive northward.

Analysts reviewing Russian tactics indicate that Russia is designing smaller encirclements (kettles) to trap Ukraine forces and gain territory rather than try to execute larger encirclements, which have fallen apart due to poor coordination and logistical support. Observers note they used a similar tactic in the capture of Crimea.

However, tactical time is running out for the assault on Severodonetsk and some analysts see any delay past this Sunday as being detrimental to the effort, giving Ukraine time to reinforce and reposition forces.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian Su-24s launched missiles at Hudove and Shalygine villages of Sumy region. Russian artillery shelled Bachivsk, Krasnopillya of Sumy region and Zarichchia of Chernihiv region

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces shelled Ternova, Ruski Tyshky, and Rubizhne and that Russian troops attempted a ground offensive near Ternova, indicating that control of settlements in northern Kharkiv Oblast remains contested.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Artillery fire along the southeastern margin of the Irpin salient. However little Russian or Ukrainian action in the salient.

One of the largest and extensive artillery barrages I’ve seen since the start of the war. Russian artillery hit 18 settlements-Avdiivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Mykolaivka, Lyman, Toretsk, Bakhmut, Soledar, Zalizne, Nelipivka, New York, Raigorodok, Berdychi, Shcherbynivka, Lastochkine, Kalynove, Orlivka.

The town of Lyman has been hammered by artillery and airstrikes for the second day. Much of the town is rubble and/or on fire. Ukraine forces pulled out yesterday.

Russian forces continued to push northeast out of the Popasna area reaching Bilohorivka and Nahirne villages between Bakhmut and Lysychansk

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Heavy Russian artillery strikes hit along the LOC along suspected axis of attack that the DPR separatist may be focusing on.

Eastern edge of the front, Russian forces attempted assaults on Krasnohorivka, Kamianka, Avdiyivka and Pisky without success,

The decomposing bodies of 200 people were found in the basement of a bombed-out apartment building in battered Mariupol

Reports of Russian forces being forward deployed in possible preparation of an offensive towards Zaporizhzhia and Pokrocske

Crimea Front -
Russian missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia. damaged 62 buildings. Russian artillery shelled Avdiyivka, Pisky, Maryinka, Orikhiv and Novosilka. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kamianka, Avdiyivka and Novomykhailivka
Heavy artillery fire along the LOC SW-NE line in the vicinity of Mykolaiv

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Explosions reported in Kursk region of Russian in Sudzha district. Shelling reported today in Nekhoteevka and Zhuravlevka villages of Belgorod region of Russia. Explosions also heard outside of Belgorod

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

Ukraine is facing the most difficult battle of the war - even more difficult that the fight for Kyiv - because the russian have made some improvements to their supply issues. They have been able to mass forces like they haven’t in the past as well, combined with tons of artillery and airstrikes. Ukraine has shown itself to be very adaptive and innovative in countering Russian tactics.

One last thing and that is bringing in obsolete T62 tanks. Most likely for DNF/LNR separatist forces to use. However, they take a 4 man crew vs 3 for the T72/64/80/90 series of more modern Russian tanks. If utilized correctly, a T62 will still kill you, but Russian tactics so far indicate that they don’t use tanks in a wise fashion and these will be eaten up with even greater crew losses.

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Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova’s pro-Russia ex-President Igor Dodon has been arrested in Chisinau on suspicion of high treason.

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Belarus -
Some back door negotiations for a Ukraine grain shipping route to reduce global food fears.
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Poland -
Poland’s Defense Minister sent formal requests to the U.S. for six additional Patriot missile system batteries and associated radar.

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Europe / NATO General -

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared a wartime state of emergency immediately after his new government was installed.
The state of emergency, a new tool Parliament approved earlier on Tuesday, will take effect at midnight and will give the government “maneuvering room and the ability to react immediately” to the fallout from the war in neighboring Ukraine, Orban said in a video message on his Facebook page.
The government will announce its first measures under the emergency on Wednesday, he said.

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Israel -

Leader of the Hezbollah group, Hassan Nasrallah, on Wednesday, warned against Israeli “violations” at the Temple Mount. This in regards to ‘flag day’, remembrance of the capture of all Jerusalem during the ’67 six day war.
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Iran -
Iran confirms the death of one person and the injury of others in an “accident” at a factory in the Parchin nuclear area, southeast of Tehran.

OBSERVATION - Another “accident” at a key nuclear facility, this following the assassination of a senior IRGC officer.

US confiscated an Iranian oil cargo on tanker off Greece: Reuters
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Iraq -
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced the killing and wounding of more than 100 PKK militants, since the launch of Operation Claw-Lock in northern Iraq more than a month ago.

Iraq’s Parliament approves bill that criminalizes normalization with Israel
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Turkey -
Turkey claims to have captured ISIS leader Abu al-Hassan al-Qurayshi in a raid in Istanbul.
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Misc of Note -

Food isolationism / nationalism (as per the globalist crowd), India, Indonesia, Serbia, Argentina, Turkey, Moldova, and Hungary have all banned or severely limited agriculture exports.
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Remembering those who gave their all in service to this country.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki during an interview at the WEF stated - “I think there’ll always be work (censoring ‘misinformation’) that we have to do because there will always be incentives for people to be creating misinformation,” Wojcicki said. “The challenge will be to keep staying ahead of that and make sure that we are understanding what they are and the different ways that people may use to try to trick our systems and make sure that our systems are staying ahead of what’s necessary to make sure that we are managing that.”

According to the Pfizer CEO during the WEF, there are billions of COVID injections just sitting unused because there’s a lack of “educated populations” out there. He’s calling those nations NOT accepting the donated jabs “uneducated”.

Bill Gates in an interview with Spanish news outlet El Diario stated that the next major pandemic is likely to occur within 20 years, saying, “It could be a virus made by man, by a bioterrorist who designed it and intentionally circulated it. That is a very scary scenario because they could try to spread it in different places at once.”
“Or it could be something that makes the leap from the natural world. The human population is growing and we are invading more and more ecosystems. That is why I calculate that there is a 50% chance that we will have a pandemic of natural origin in the next 20 years, as a consequence of climate change,” he added.

World Economic Forum (WEF) founder and Executive Director Klaus Schwab issued a thinly veiled threat toward Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro after he said he would refuse to sign the World Health Organization‘s (WHO) pandemic treaty.
“Let’s also be clear: The future is not just happening. The future is built by us, a powerful community – you, here in this room. We have the means to impose this state [of the future] on the world,” Schwab said in a video posted on Twitter.

OBSERVATION - i might be a little dense, but i didn’t see the threat to Brazil but it could be viewed in a greater context as a global threat.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Davos shindig, the elites openly unafraid to state their goals. No longer conspiracy theory. More post meeting comments expected from these GGR supporters. The most likely next step from all I’ve seen is the greater push for a digital currency starting on a national level, eventually transitions to a global control (thought the national level will be in defacto control of GGR)

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Wuhan virus -
Kalifornian Gov Newscum has come with wuhan.
LA School district bans non-jabbed students from participating in graduation ceremonies.

OBSERVATION - Hard to conceptualize the continued oppression in Kalifornia, since wuhan fun and games have been ended here in the Redoubt the better part of a year now.

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Economy -
“An average 2,500-acre corn and soybean farm has seen their fertilizer bill increase $175,000 in the last year alone from $250,000 to $425,000,” Loren Koeman, lead economist/manager Industry, Conservation, and Regulatory Relations for the Michigan Farm Bureau, told The Center Square.

OBSERVATION - There is no relief in sight for this year and even next year supplies will be short and expensive. These costs will bubble up throughout all the products and meat prices.

Gas prices in the US soared to record heights again Sunday, reaching an all-time high of $4.61 per gallon. The number is more than 50 percent higher than the cost of a gallon a year ago. Diesel prices are up as well – by a whopping 75 percent from Memorial Day last year – at around $5.50 a gallon, also an all-time record.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi is ready to call it. He tells Fortune that we’ve officially moved from a housing boom into a “housing correction.”
The real estate data rolling in for April and May shows that the U.S. housing market is softening. New home sales fell 19% to their lowest level since April 2020. Redfin reports 19% of home listings cut their price over the past month. Inventory is rising fast, while mortgage applications and existing home sales are also falling.
This drop-off isn’t a result of seasonality, or a soft month or two. Zandi says it’s a trajectory flip: Demand is pulling back—fast—in the face of mortgage rates that have spiked dramatically.

OBSERVATION - Is this going to be a soft deflation or a balloon burst?
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Biden / Harris watch -

A lot of tone deaf platitudes on this Memorial Day Weekend from dumb and dumber.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Protest groups are planning to shut down Washington D.C, including the Supreme Court. The activist group, called #ShutDownDC, said it would like to shut down the Supreme Court on the day their landmark decision is supposed to be issued. The group said that they knew their plan was in violation of the law and that they would likely clash with police.

#ShutdownDC is planning to block streets adjoining the Court to prevent the justices and their staff from reaching their chambers. Organizers acknowledged their operations go beyond constitutionally protected activity, and they referenced the likelihood of arrests and clashes with law enforcement during a Tuesday night briefing the Free Beacon monitored.
“One of our goals would be to expand the current political crisis by shutting down the Supreme Court,” one of the organizers said. The group planned the blockade for Monday, June 13, a day when the Court will likely hand down opinions.”

OBSERVATION - This may gain local traction, but at this stage unlikely to gain serious attention elsewhere with the exceptions of Antifa strongholds of Seattle and Portland.

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China -
China sent 30 fighter jets and other aircraft near Taiwan while U.S. marks Memorial Day. Two AEW&C aircraft, four ELINT aircraft, one early warning aircraft, one anti submarine warfare aircraft, six J-16 fighter jets, eight J-11 fighter jets, four J-10 fighter jets, two Su-35s and two Su-30s.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

NK reportedly has been testing numerous nuclear detonation devices over the past couple weeks. Observers still expect another full nuclear test soon.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia initially hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, Russia has failed in this attempt and has continually narrowed its focus now to capturing Sievierodonetsk

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

RUMINT -
More health related discussions/speculation about putin.

Logistics -
- In addition to shipping old T-62 tanks, early model T-72B tanks have arrived in Melitopol. It is uncertain if these are going to reinforce Russian or separatist forces. The other question is just what state of readiness these tanks are in. Apparently they could be driven onto the rail cars at the very least.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The UK’s Defense Ministry says Russia appears to have suffered heavy losses among its junior and mid-ranking officers. The depth of losses could pose a threat to Russia’s military effectiveness in future, the ministry says.
- Russia is sending out orders to begin the mobilization of its reserve forces, according to reports. Approximately 60-70 groups will be comprised of officers, contractors, and reservists, RBC-Ukraine reported, citing Michael Naki’s YouTube channel. The battalions have orders from the military districts to conduct 30-day training exercises throughout Russia, according to the report. The mobilization of these reserve groups is a rotation designed to replace ineffective units already on the ground in Ukraine’s contested eastern border regions with Russia, without declaring infusion of forces, according to Leviev.
- Russian lost two more senior officers. Lt-Col Alexander Dosyagayev, 34, and Col Vladimir Ivanov, 41, has also been killed in the war. Dosyagayev and Ivanov are the 47th and 48th colonels to have died fighting

Economic Impact -
- Germany had frozen nearly €143 million ($154 million) in money from Russian oligarchs and others on the EU sanctions list.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers for the first half of the 10 day forecast period, followed by a drying period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
More like a weekend round up. As the week ended, Russia was making some gains around Sievierodonetsk and locally causing Ukraine forces to fall back. Ukraine however, has resumed stiff resistance and forcing Russia to pay a high price for each piece of ground gained since. Ukraine forces are still in danger of being cut off in Sievierodonetsk, however, at this stage Russia just can’t seem to seal the deal and is being forced back into an urban style battle they have not done well in the past fighting.

Ukraine also launched a limited offensive north of Kherson, securing a river crossing and placing Russian forces in a difficult situation. Intelligence indicates that ‘lower’ quality Russian forces are holding that sector while better units were deployed to the east.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zapsillia, Myropillia of Sumy region and artillery shelled Kindrativka

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian army shelled areas North and North-east to Kharkiv city, as well as Ruski Tyshky, Cherkasky Tyshky, Ruska Lozova, Pytomnyk, Borschova and Peremoha areas.

Ukraine push towards the Russian border has been halted at Ternova by Russian forces.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian troops are reported to have entered the city of Sievierodonetsk amid heavy resistance. The ‘frontal assault’ appears to be the result Russian inability to surround the city first. Ukrainian troops have once again re-entered Toshkivka, 11mi/18km S of Severodonetsk, & are actively contesting the city. Russian forces are putting up stiff resistance in the town, but this is the 3rd UAF counterattack that has gained a foothold in Toshkivka.

Russia continued attacks supported by heavy artillery northward from the Popasna salient.

Russian forces attempted again to push out from Izyum salient but were repulsed. British and Ukraine intelligence suggests that Russia is now shifting forces away from Izyum to the Lyman area to reinforce the gains there.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -

The Ukrainian General Staff has not reported any Russian offensive operations around Kurakhove since May 16, and this report may indicate Russian efforts to renew offensive operations in this sector to support stalled Russian operations towards Zaporizhia

Crimea Front -
Ukraine is consolidating their successes following a limited counter offensive operation north of Kherson. Russian forces are attempting to counter attack and are pushing more reinforcement to regain positions near Andriivka, Bilohirka and Bila Krynytsa.
Heavy Russian artillery fire all along the western margin of the front. Due largely to the threat from Ukrainian forces conducting more limited offensive actions and attempting to pin them in place.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Ukrainan forces are still in a precarious position in the Sievierodonetsk salient. Difficult to say if Russian forces have hit a stall or are just regrouping for further assault.

The Place 2 of the war was aimed to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts—is now focused almost entirely on Severodonetsk. Take a minute and pause to consider how much the Russian objective has been forced to narrow down to.
In this current fight Ukraine has taken some hits but if giving better than it is receiving. The fact that Russia is scraping the barrel to bring in old, outdated tanks and trying to mobilize reserve forces further points out the increasingly desperate situation Russia is in.

Various analysts indicate that even if Russia is able to capture Severodonetsk it is left with few choices. I could claim success in ‘liberating ‘ Luhansk and claim victory. It would then dig in and try to preserve gains. Second option would require substantial realignment of Russian forces to continue to press westward into Donetsk Oblast. Given the forces used to just capture Severodonetsk advancing to the west will be problematical.

The limited offensive in Kherson Oblast gives Ukraine a great deal of flexibility. Finding a weak zone in Russia’s economy of force efforts in the west gives Ukraine the ability to strike many different ways.

I expect a continued slugfest over Severodonetsk and an eventual Ukrainian withdrawal. How soon? Depends on a lot of factors. I expected Russia to have control by the time I got back to write this up.
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Europe / NATO General -

Spain’s prime minister says NATO’s support for Ukraine is unbreakable and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not achieve his aims in the country. The comments from Pedro Sanchez came at an event marking the 40th anniversary of Spain’s accession to NATO.

The European Union today has again Failed to reach an agreement on an Oil Embargo against the Russian Federation even after allowing an exception for Russian Oil Transport using the Southern-Druzhba Pipeline for Hungary, Czechia, and Slovenia.

OBSERVATION - Hungary is the hold out country here, with a generally pro-Russian government.

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Israel -
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Sunday Iran would not go unpunished for instigating attacks through its proxies, speaking a week after the assassination in Tehran of a Revolutionary Guards colonel that has been blamed on Israel.

Israel got through Flag Day, remembering when the Temple Mount was taken in the 1967 Six-Day War and the Israeli flag raised over it. Last year, Hamas used Flag Day marches as justification for its rocket war with Israel.

Israel warns its citizens not travel to Turkey and other countries bordering Iran due to threats from Iran after an assassination of an IRGC senior official

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Iran -
Ion Abadan, reports of intense clashes between protesters and security forces. Reports of violence used against civilians by ‘security forces’ that have been deployed. Protests started after a building collapse killed at least 26 people

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Iraq -
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced the killing and wounding of more than 100 PKK militants, since the launch of Operation Claw-Lock in northern Iraq more than a month ago.

Iraq’s Parliament approves bill that criminalizes normalization with Israel
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Syria -

Turkey has spent the past week expanding their assaults in northern Syrian in an apparent effort to expand their “safe zone” free from kurds and other opposition Syrian elements.

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Turkey -

See Syria above
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Misc of Note -

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning travelers to “practice enhanced precautions” to avoid monkeypox as cases have been confirmed in 20 countries. The World Health Organization made a similar announcement on Sunday, assessing the global risk level as “moderate” with nearly 260 confirmed cases across the world.
The WHO is monitoring about 120 suspected monkeypox cases.
“Some cases were reported among men who have sex with men. Some cases were also reported in people who live in the same household as an infected person,” the CDC noted. WHO officials observed last week that cases were more common amongst the sexual minority group.

OBSERVATION - Monkey pox is likely a place holder for the next big plandemic
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Yuval Noah Harari, WEF Schwab advisor in a recent interview - “Most humans will become economically useless and politically powerless… we are beginning to see a new class of humans… “The Useless Class”

OBSERVATION - Watch this guy like a hawk, he exudes pure evil.

World Economic Forum technocrats are urging people to ditch meat and other foods deemed to be harmful to the planet and instead consume “climate beneficial foods” such as seaweed, algae and cacti. A video summary was posted to Twitter in which the WEF promoted alternatives to a food system it claimed is responsible for two thirds of global carbon dioxide emissions.

OBSERVATION - Do as I say, not as I do. “There is no record of exactly what was served to the 2,500 invited delegates dining at the elite gathering in Davos and whether or not the WEF’s own dietary instructions were followed by participants,” writes Simon Kent.

Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach during a discussion on the future of cross-border payments between nations was one of the few participants that was willing to suggest that the SWIFT system, long dominated by western interests, might be made obsolete along with the proliferation of digital currencies among central banks. Initially dismissed as “conspiracy theory” only a few years ago by the media, whispers of CBDCs have suddenly gone mainstream and blockchain technologies took center stage at Davos in 2022. The Federal Reserve has even started active public discussions assessing the case for retail digital currency products.

OBSERVATION - National level CBDCs are just the stepping stone to a globally controlled digital currency.

Canada should introduce a total ban on the buying and selling of all handguns, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said. His government is proposing a new law that would freeze private ownership of all short-barrelled firearms. The legislation would not ban the ownership of handguns outright - but would make it illegal to buy them.
The bill, which was presented to Canada’s parliament on Monday, makes it impossible to buy, sell, transfer or import handguns anywhere in the country. “Other than using firearms for sport shooting and hunting, there is no reason anyone in Canada should need guns in their everyday lives,” Mr Trudeau told reporters.

President Joe Biden pushed for more gun control on Monday, even though it was Memorial Day, a national patriotic holiday.
“The Constitution, the Second Amendment was never absolute,” Biden said to reporters.

Australia’s biggest state of New South Wales (NSW) launched a fresh round of firearm destruction Tuesday, disposing of weapons seized and gathered by local law enforcement officers. The haul of 2809 firearms came into police possession after being seized through criminal investigations, located as abandoned property, and surrendered. The state has a population of just over eight million people.

OBSERVATION - GGR globalists MUST have a disarmed populace in order to force their visions of a better world. Most of Europe has already collapsed to disarmament, leaving a few countries left to disarm.
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Economy -
Crude prices rose during Asia hours after EU leaders agreed to ban about 90% of Russian oil by the end of 2022. Brent crude rose above $123 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest it’s been for two months upon the news.

According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll that was recently conducted, 56 percent of Americans say that their financial situations are getting worse, and only 20 percent of Americans say that their financial situations are improving.

Baby formula can be easily found south of the U.S. despite the shortage, parents in a Mexican border town told Fox News. “Well, right now, when I got the formula, I’ve seen two, three people getting formula from the other side,” Jorge, of Tijuana, said. “They have it everywhere at the pharmacies, any store.”

OBSERVATION - When Mexico can feed its babies, and the US cannot - things are pretty screwed up.

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Biden / Harris watch -
President Joe Biden stated on Monday that “Democracy is not perfect,” further noting that “it’s never been good” before seemingly correcting himself to add “perfect.
“Ladies and gentlemen, today we remember, and we reaffirm, freedom is worth the sacrifice,” Biden said during a Memorial Day speech. “Democracy is not perfect. It’s never been good – perfect. But it’s worth fighting for.”

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CW2/Domestic violence -
Senate Republicans on Thursday blocked a bill to create domestic terrorism offices within federal law enforcement agencies in response to a mass shooting in Buffalo, N.Y., that left 10 people dead.
The legislation would have created an interagency task force within the Justice Department, Department of Homeland Security and the FBI to analyze and combat white supremacist infiltration in the military and federal law enforcement agencies.
Republican senators argued that new federal laws and offices are not needed to monitor and prosecute domestic terrorism because politically motivated violence is already covered by existing laws.
They also voiced concerns that the bill could open the door to improper surveillance of political groups and create a double standard for extreme groups on the right and left of the political spectrum.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) called the legislation an “insult” to police officers and military servicemembers. “It would be the Democrat plan to name our police as white supremacists and neo-Nazis. I met policemen throughout Kentucky and I’ve not met one policeman motivated or consumed with any kind of racial rage,” he said. “What an insult it is to put a bill before the House and say our Marines are consumed with white supremacy and neo-Nazism,” he added.

OBSERVATION - Disarm the citizenry - create a new class of criminals/terrorists.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

More polling showing that democrats are facing a politcal bloodbath this fall.

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Domestic Terror -
See CW2 section

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China -
An unprecedented video conference with 100,000 lower level officials was held last Wednesday by the Chinese State Cabinet as the central government scrambles to address China’s crumbling economy, writes Chinese state-run newspaper Global Times.
Aiming to portray the massive conference as a rally around central government interjection in the economy and the nation’s confidence in “China’s unique institutional advantages,” the nation-wide meeting, on the contrary, could indicate a scrambling by the Chinese government to save the nation’s collapsing financial system.

The Caixin purchasing managers’ index, a popular and closely followed indicator for assessing the state of the Chinese economy dropped 5.8 points: from 42 in March to 36.2 in April. Any figure below 50 indicates contraction and anything above indicates expansion, CNN Business reports. With China’s massive services and manufacturing sectors contracting rapidly, China’s economy is going backwards.

OBSERVATION - China’s economy could cause Xi to be replaced by the Chinese powers that be. Their massive military buildup needs a strong economy to pay the bills.

China’s foreign minister Wang Yi mocked President Biden’s wide-ranging Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) for failing to reduce tariffs. Wang was on a diplomatic tour of Pacific Island nations this past week trying to sell China’s version of a security and economic cooperation agreement but was itself snubbed by the Pacific Island Forum (PIF), which decided to reject the Chinese agreement.

OBSERVATION - PIF is right to question China’s goal for the Pacific.

Chinese government authorities stated they were preparing to reopen China’s largest city, Shanghai, after two months of COVID lockdowns. Shanghai’s vice mayor Zong Ming announced bus and rail service was being restored, and schools and shopping malls would be reopened in the coming week.

OBSERVATION - It is going to take weeks to straighten out the global supply chain mess the lock down has caused.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea this week assumes the presidency of the U.N.-linked Conference on Disarmament. NK assumptions rotating presidency of the Geneva-based multilateral forum for the next month has prompted a group of 31 U.N.-accredited non-governmental organizations to call on democracies to stay away in protest.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia ditches referendum on joining Russia, leader says

The Russians conducted another test launch of their hypersonic Zircon cruise missile yesterday in the White Sea. The Defense Ministry said the Admiral Gorshkov frigate of the Northern Fleet in the White Sea launched the Zircon cruise missile in the Barents Sea, successfully hitting a practice target in the White Sea about 1,000 kilometers (540 nautical miles) away.
The launch was the latest in a series of tests of Zircon, which is set to enter service later this year.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Latest estimates from the Ukraine’s Armed Forces suggest as many as 30,350 Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion was launched on February 24, which came after more than 120,000 of the Kremlin’s troops massed on the border. NOTE - extrapolation would suggest upwards of 90,000 wounded.
- A category of military leadership not tallied has been the heavy losses of junior officers. Russia lacks the NCO backbone the US military has, so junior officers have to bear the brunt of the load. With the loss of these officers, the Russian military grinds to a halt, until officers from higher headquarters go forward to resume control. Hence all the high losses of these more senior officers as well. It is being assessed by some observers that the continued losses of these junior officers will complicate command and control efforts, particularly in Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) cobbled together from the survivors of multiple other units.

Economic Impact -
- Russia’s Gazprom says has suspended gas supplies to Netherlands
- EU agrees ban on ‘more than 2/3’ of Russian oil imports, EU chief says. Sanctions package includes other hard-hitting measures: de-Swifting the largest Russian bank Sberbank, banning 3 more Russian state-owned broadcasters, and sanctioning individuals responsible for war crimes in Ukraine
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers for the first half of the 10 day forecast period, followed by a drying period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian continues to make gains in the fight for Sieverodonetsk, now controlling about half the town. Reports that Russian forces are reportedly transferring large quantities of personnel and equipment to the area to strengthen operations against Severodonetsk. This fight has absorbed most of the Russian resources.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continue to block Ukraine from reaching the Russian border. Russia targeted numerous towns around Kharkiv with artillery and MLRS fire.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian troops have captured approximately the northern half of Sieverodonetsk city, heavy battles ongoing. South of Severodonetsk see-saw battles in Toshkivka, Ustynivka, Voronove, Borivske, and Metolkine continue.

Intense artillery by Russian forces along the western and southern margins of the Izyum salient and along the northern flank of the Popasna salient as Russian ground forces attempt assaults in those directions.

Ground attacks out of Popasna have become increasingly stymied by Urkainan forces. Efforts are concentrated on isolating Sieverodonetsk from the south.

Ground offensives out of Izyum continue to be stalled/stymied by Ukrainan forces.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Limited unsuccessful Russian attacks.
Increased partisan activity being noted in Russian controlled regions with an IED being set off near the residence of the Russian-appointed Mayor of Zaporizhia Eugene Balitsky.

Crimea Front -
Concentrated Russian artillery northwest of Kherson and towards Kryvyl Rih. Russians blew up a bridge at Bridge at Davydiv Brid in an effort to stall the Ukraine counter offensive in the area.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Ukrainan forces are still in a precarious position in the Sievierodonetsk salient. Difficult to say if Russian forces have hit a stall or are just regrouping for further assault.

Ukrainian defense of Sievierodonetsk continues to be tenacious, forcing Russian troops to enter a meat grinder and forcing Russia to commit a lot of resources towards the capture of the town. This focus by Russia on Sievierodonetsk has continued to create opportunities for Ukrainan actions elsewhere. However, the intensity of the Sievierodonetsk battle has the majority of Ukrainians focus as well.

Russian capture of Sievierodonetsk would pretty much seal up control of Luhansk Oblast. Russia maintains under their Phase 2 goal the control of all the Donbas. Luhansk was nearly all under Russian control and it has taken over three months to get this far. Conquest of the rest of the Donbas region is far beyond their capabilities at the present. Even if 60 battalions of reserves are mustered up in the next 30 days, they would still be in the hole.

How long can Sievierodonetsk hold out? It will depend upon if Russia can finally cut off the Ukrainan logistic to it and so far Ukraine has been able to stablilze the shoulders of the salient.

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Belarus -
Belarusian state media said a special operation by its KGB liberated “several dozen” citizens from Ukrainian captivity. President Lukashenko said, “I remember saying then that if the guys were not returned to us, then we would conduct an acute special operation to release our guys.”

OBSERVATION - This could become touchy for Belarus/Ukraine perhaps providing Ukraine with an excuse to selective target Belarus assets.
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Europe / NATO General -

Representatives of a group of nations working together to investigate war crimes in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are meeting in The Hague amid ongoing calls for those responsible for atrocities to be brought to justice.

Deputy Secretary-General of NATO, Mircea Geoana state Sunday that the alliance is free from its previous commitments with Russia not to deploy its forces in Eastern Europe. Moscow itself has “voided of any content” the NATO-Russia Founding Act, by attacking Ukraine and halting dialogue with the alliance, Mircea Geoana told AFP.
Under the 1997 Founding Act, intended to reset the relationship between Russia and the Alliance, both sides agreed to work to “prevent any potentially threatening build-up of conventional forces in agreed regions of Europe, to include Central and Eastern Europe.”
“They took decisions, they made obligations there not to aggress neighbors, which they are doing, and to have regular consultations with NATO, which they don’t,” said Geoana, speaking in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius.
“So I think that in fact this founding act is basically not functioning because of Russia,” he added.
Russia, he said, had effectively moved away from the terms of the 1997 agreement.
“Now we have no restrictions to have robust posture in the eastern flank and to ensure that every square inch of NATO’s territory is protected by Article 5 and our allies.”

OBSERVATION - This statement indicates a more aggressive stance towards Russia.
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Iran -
Anti-government protests taking place across various Iranian cities tonight. Security forces are, among other things, shooting at protesters in Khoramshahr. In Bushehr, southern Iran, locals are protesting in the streets and launching anti-government protests by blocking roads with fires.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said in its latest report on Iran’s nuclear program that it “estimated that, as of May 15, 2022, Iran’s total enriched stockpile was 3,809.3 kilograms.” That is more than 18 times the limit laid down in Tehran’s 2015 deal with world powers. The stockpile of uranium enriched up to 20 percent is now estimated to be 238.4 kg, up 56.3 kg since the last report in March, while the amount enriched to 60 percent stands at 43.1 kg, an increase of 9.9 kg.
Enrichment levels of around 90 percent are required for use in a nuclear weapon.

On May 27 at approx. 3 p.m. EDT two Greek-flagged merchant vessels were seized while transiting international waters in the Arabian Gulf. The vessels then were moved into Iranian territorial waters. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has claimed responsibility.
OBSERVATION - This was in response to the seizure of an Iranian tanker.
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Iraq -
According to the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company, Iraq is in discussions with France over the possibility of supplying the European market with oil

_________________________________

Turkey -
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Russia’s Vladimir Putin he is ready to meet with officials from Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations in Istanbul to help bring about an end to the war, the Turkish government said.

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Late, sorry, life happens

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Schoolchildren in Wales are being fed bugs as part of a research programme by publicly-funded universities “to educate children on the environmental and nutritional benefits of edible insects across the UK”, according to the left-wing i newspaper.

OBSERVATION - Conditioning children AND parents for the GGR.

Tulsi Gabbard - “While we struggle to afford food and fuel, the elite gathered at Davos/WEF to discuss how we should be allowed to live our lives. Their totalitarian dream of a so-called “Great Reset” where people own nothing and are tracked/monitored with every step, must be condemned by us all.”
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Wuhan virus -
The U.S. Justice Department on Tuesday asked a federal appeals court to overturn a U.S. District Court judge’s order that declared a government mandate requiring masks on public transportation unlawful, according to a report.
A federal judge in April voided the Biden administration’s mask mandate for travelers using public transportation such as trains and airplanes. The mandate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) applied to people as young as 2-years-old.

NOTE - its not about the disease, but power.
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Economy - During an interview aired on Tuesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “Situation Room,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted that she “was wrong” about inflation and that while “unanticipated and large shocks to the economy” are a part of the reason, she also “didn’t fully understand” supply bottlenecks that have hurt the economy.
OBSERVATION - This coming from the former head of the FED. Not very encouraging for the future.

On Tuesday’s broadcast of “CNN Newsroom,” White House Council of Economic Advisers chair Cecilia Rouse stated that the White House incorrectly predicted inflation wouldn’t be a long-term issue because “what we understood about inflation at the time was it was tied to the pandemic. We are still in the midst of this pandemic.” And because Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused economic problems.
After playing clips of President Joe Biden in 2021 predicting inflation would be temporary and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell predicting that inflation wouldn’t rise to major levels, co-host Victor Blackwell asked, “Those expectations, clearly wrong. Does the White House acknowledge that it got it wrong for too long?”
OBSERVATION - The WH was deliberant in their actions. Trying to echo the narrative like Yellen. Do you really think they’d accept any blame.

Reserves of natural gas have dropped 15% lower than the five-year average as a result of slowed production coupled with increased demands and exports. This bill result in continued high prices.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index showed prices were up 20.6 percent in March compared with 12-months earlier. That is a faster pace than the 20 percent gain in February.
NOTE - Doesn’t show the effects of higher interest rates yet.

Rice may be India’s next food protectionism target after it restricted wheat and sugar exports, analysts say, a move that could have a devastating impact on global food security as it’s an important staple. India’s curbs on wheat and sugar exports sent shock waves through global markets as it marked an escalation in food protectionism that’s seen countries choke off flows of locally-grown supplies to the world. A similar move on rice by the No. 1 exporter at a time when crops like wheat and corn are soaring would threaten to plunge millions more into hunger and boost inflation risks. India is the world’s biggest rice exporter, accounting for 40% of trade.

OBSERVATION - More global instability in foods and prices.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

President Joe Biden warmly welcomed New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to the White House on Tuesday, expressing his interest in her views on gun control and online censorship in her country.
“We need your guidance,” Biden said as he welcomed Ardern to the Oval Office. “And it’s a pleasure to see you in person.” He praised the prime minister warmly for making progress on issues like climate change, combatting “violent extremism online,” and gun control.

OBSERVATION - This is part of the attempt to disarm America. Expect the intensity level to disarm the country to grow very steeply. Ardern is a staunch socialist.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments
The U.S. Air Force is reportedly preparing to forward deploy 3 to 4 B-1B bombers to Guam in preparation for North Korea’s anticipated 7th nuclear weapons test. A military source claimed, “There is a high probability that the B-1B bombers will stay ready in Guam before being instantly deployed to the Korean Peninsula in the event the North should conduct a nuclear test.” Also, DOD mobilized all available reconnaissance resources to monitor Pyongyang, including a Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS) from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia has been making a lot of rumblings about the advanced hardware Ukraine is receiving and further threatening a widened war agains the US and NATO.

RUMINT -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has denied speculation that President Vladimir Putin is ill. In an interview with French TV, Mr Lavrov said the Russian leader appears in public every day, and no sane person would see any signs of an ailment.

Logistics -
- Reports that Russian forces are attempting to exploit Belarusian equipment reserves to compensate for heavy material losses in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 31 that Belarusian forces were moving tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from storage facilities in Belarus to Russia to replenish combat losses.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has fired five generals and one police colonel, according to a report from Moscow-based media group RBC, amid the country’s military failures in Ukraine. Those fired included Major General of Police Vasily Kukushkin, who was head of the Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Vladimir region; Major General Alexander Laas, deputy head of the Main Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Altai Territory and Major General Andrey Lipilin, head of the Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Yaroslavl Region. Major General Alexander Udovenko of the Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Major General Yuri Instrankin, deputy head of the Department for Logistics and Medical Support of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, were also reportedly dismissed. Putin has also reportedly fired Police Colonel Emil Musin, who was the first deputy head of the Forensic Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Economic Impact -
- Russia’s largest bank will be removed from the SWIFT international banking system in the latest round of international sanctions announced by the European Union late Monday. Sberbank, which encompasses 37 percent of the Russian banking sector, will no longer be allowed to utilize the international program – effectively cutting it off from global financial networks.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers for the first half of the 10 day forecast period, followed by a drying period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
It appears that Ukraine is staging an orderly withdrawl from Sieverodonetsk. It is believed that the Russians control over 70% of the rubble that was the city. What this withdrawal does is place another significant river that Russia has to cross to continue the attack.

Ukrainan counter offensive north of Kherson has resumed with Russia scrambling to try to contain the breakout.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian Su-35 conducted missile strike at Bilopillia of Sumy region. Artillery shelled Seredyna-Buda area.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Considerable Russian artillery and air strkes northeast of Kharkiv. No significant changes on the ground.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient, having failed attacks towards the southwest and southeast. It a appears the most effort is being directed to link up with Russian forces in the Lyman area.

Fighting south of Lyman is ongoing and the bridge over the Donets still stands. This suggests Ukrainians have not fully withdrawn from their positions towards Slovyansk

Russian forces attempting to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Russian has gained about 70% of the rubble that used to be a city. Ukraine is staging an orderly withdrawal back to new positions to the west. See outlook below on the scale of Russian’s operation.

Russian army attempted to push northward from the Popasna salient towards Bilohorivka and Vrubivka, with airstrikes reported near Komyshuvakha, Berestove and Nyrkove.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Nothing significant to report.

Crimea Front -
Ukraine’s counter offensive at Davydiv Brid continues, threatening to cut off Russian forces in half along the front. Russian forces deployed mines at shores of Inhulets river to prevent possible attacks of Ukrainian forces. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Davydiv Brid of Kherson region.

Ukraine is also counterattacking from the north towards the Davydiv Brid region.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Ukrainan forces are still in a precarious position in the Sievierodonetsk salient. A strategic withdrawl by Ukraine, though distasteful to them, is the smart thing to do. Ukraine has forced Russian into a very difficult situation because it was forced to devote the bulk of its resources to a relatively not significant town. Now Russia will be forced to face another difficult series of river crossings that have in the recent been devastating for them.

I’ve found a few maps that depict the progressively shrinking goals of the Russian military since they began their Phase 2 operation - just to give you a scale of how they have been forced to reduce their goals.

The following link shows the progressive reduction of Russian goals, based in part on rhetoric from Moscow as well as efforts on the ground.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUG1kCoWUAAbvTK?format=png&name=900x900

The March 22 encirclement is the goal needed to capture all the Donbas region. It fell apart under the Ukraine counter offensive around Kharkiv as well as failed attacks towards Zaporizhzhia.

April saw the initial break through at Izyum, which quickly turned into a quagmire for Russians, with no supporting attack coming from the south.

May saw another attempt to breakout towards the south - southeast out of Izyum, which again stalled and had no support coming from the south.

Finally, the current situation with a break through at Lyman and Popasna cutting key supply LOC to Sievierodonetsk. PAUSE and think about this - Russia had to dedicate the bulk of its military resources to capture a very tiny pocket. The next two links show most of the eastern half of Ukraine followed by a zoomed in map of the Sievierodonetsk pocket.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUGHs1haUAAm2OR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUGH9FlacAcTNav?format=jpg&name=largeh

It took Russia a couple months to get to this point, only a fraction of the Donbas.

Russian will be in a bind having to then readjust forces and logistics to push to the west out of the pocket. As noted, more river crossings (Severskyi Donets River), exposed to more modern and lethal NATO supplied weapons systems. Meanwhile, Russia has depleted units on its operational flanks - Kharhriv and Kherson, vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives.

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Belarus -
See armor vehicles equipment being shipped to Russia.
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Israel -
Israel signed a free trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, its first with an Arab state and one which eliminates most tariffs and aims to lift their annual bilateral trade to more than $10 billion.

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Iran -
Iranian officials told Greece to work without the U.S. to resolve a tanker seizure dispute. The U.S. told Iran to immediately release seized Greek tankers, cargo, and crews. “Mr. Blinken has to realize that the era when the U.S. single handedly imposed its rules on the world has come to an end,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said. “Unfortunately, the Greek government demonstrated that taking orders from a third party is more important to them … But we believe relations between Iran and Greece should remain well-intentioned.”

Iran disrupted internet access to the outside world as angry demonstrators rallied over the collapse of a tower in Iran that has killed at least 36 people, experts said Tuesday, as outrage and grief continued to grow in the country. Protesters in several cities in Iran chanted anti-government slogans overnight, including “death to Khamenei”.

Iran accused the International Atomic Energy Agency on Tuesday of publishing an unfair report on its investigation into Tehran’s nuclear activities, possibly setting up a fresh diplomatic clash with the West.

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Iraq -
According to the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company, Iraq is in discussions with France over the possibility of supplying the European market with oil

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Black Swans -
Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict an “unusually” active hurricane season for 2022, with a 70% likelihood of 14-21 named storms, including 6-10 hurricanes. NOAA forecasts indicate 3-6 of the storms will be major hurricanes of category 3 or higher. The agency cited this enhanced risk is caused by a volatile mix of ongoing climate conditions, including La Niña effects in the Pacific, warm surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, combined with enhanced west African monsoon conditions, and weak tropical Atlantic trade winds.

OBSERVATION - Our national level emergency response to a major hurricane will be a clown act. That on top of the addition stress placed on the economy.

Looking at the items below, my observations just keep being repeated. Let me quickly summarize my concerns of the ‘perfect storm’ hitting this fall.

1. Midterms elections - democrats not going to go down without a fight
2. Economic meltdown focusing down on the latter half of the year due to rampant inflation caused by uncontrolled fuel, energy, food, housing, medical and other essential costs - all feeding on each other.
3. Housing bubble bursting (see #2 above) due to Fed prime rate increases.
4. Shortages increasing in key items - baby formula (nope won’t be ‘fixed’ before fall, as well as other food products), construction supplies, diesel and truckers.
5. Associated increasing probability of a deep recession or even depression from #2 and #3.
6. Pending social unrest/violence driven by impending USSC Roe v Wade decision and progressive /rino efforts to strip 2d amendment rights from citizens (see also #1 above). Include loss of other rights too.
7. Illegal tsunami and associated criminal activity overloading social services, drug influx and human trafficking just for starters. Especially if Title 42 is eliminated or circumvented by the regime.
8. Ongoing Ukraine war and unanticipated consequences
9. Globalist efforts to control the world via WHO actions or other.
This is just a short list, and note the deep intertwining of factors too. I don’t want to be redundant in my observations but the trends are inescapable. I further don’t like being an alarmist, but once again, the trends are there and there is nothing biden is doing (or not doing) that is going to change them. Even a republican controlled congress will not change things.

When TM was started, it was assessing the threat of Islamic terror to the US. Now our greater threat has morphed to a more direct govt tyranny and globalist controls. IMHO, time is short to make preparations.

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Globalism / Great Reset -
The Stockholm+50 two-day meeting begins tomorrow, 2 June 2022, and follows months of consultations and discussions with individuals, communities, organizations, and governments around the world. Announcement of the meeting states -
Stockholm+50: a healthy planet for the prosperity of all – our responsibility, our opportunity”
(Stockholm+50) will take place five decades after the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. The event will provide leaders with an opportunity to draw on 50 years of multilateral environmental action to achieve the bold and urgent action needed to secure a better future on a healthy planet.
Per Bolund, Sweden’s former Minister for the Environment and Climate, and Deputy Prime Minister, said “Our aim is clear, we want Stockholm+50 to make a concrete contribution to accelerating the transformation to a sustainable future. We call this meeting to commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the 1972 conference. We are running out of time and urgent action is needed. These challenges are global, and we must meet them with a global response that drives action on the ground.”

OBSERVATION - Key agenda is pushing the world to a fossil fuel free economy.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has partnered with German telecommunications company Deutsche Telekom to create a global Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine verification app. The WHO’s partnership with the company is meant to “link every person on the planet to a QR code digital ID” that will allow for the establishment of a global vaccine passport verification system.
Global vaccine passport system part of WHO’s pandemic treaty. If the WHO’s plans proceed accordingly, the treaty could come into effect by 2024. When it does, governing authority during a pandemic will effectively be transferred to the WHO and, by extension, the United Nations.
A component of the WHO’s plans is a global vaccine passport system. The organization claims this system is necessary to support its efforts in fighting pandemics. “This system will be universal, mandatory, transnational and operated by unelected bureaucrats in a captured NGO who already bungled the COVID pandemic response,” warned the Brownstone Institute, a think tank that is opposed to COVID-19 measures that deprive people of health freedom.

OBSERVATION - Global control and tracking on ‘health’ as well as economic, climate awareness and social justice will proceed incrementally, but this global vaccine passport system would be a huge jump. Already we’ve seen countries / global associations implement the wuhan passport on a smaller scale. This is just an upgrade, permitting control by WHO and controlling globalists over lives of global citizens. NOTE that the pandemic treaty is currently on hold.
OMG - in the before times this would have been hard core conspiracy theory, now openly discussed and trying to be implemented by the powers that be.

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Wuhan virus -
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky warned that Pfizer’s COVID-19 pill Paxlovid can lead to a rebound in symptoms.
“If you take Paxlovid, you might get symptoms again,” Walensky told CBS News on Tuesday. “We haven’t yet seen anybody who has returned with symptoms needing to go to the hospital. So, generally, a milder course.”
Another researcher who is not affiliated with the CDC said that he has observed such a scenario.
“People who experience rebound are at risk of transmitting to other people, even though they’re outside what people accept as the usual window for being able to transmit,” Dr. Michael Charness of the Veterans Administration Medical Center in Boston told CNN on Tuesday.

OBSERVATION - Follow the money.

America’s Frontline Doctors, a group of medical professionals who work to promote early COVID-19 treatments and to expose the influence of pharmaceutical companies on federal decision-making, is suing the U.S. government over the COVID vaccination campaign. The latter is called by the plaintiffs “the greatest fraud in the history of the world.”
The suit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama on February 16 includes a comprehensive amount of evidence regarding such pressing issues as serious side effects linked to COVID vaccinations recorded in the U.S. military and COVID vaccines’ ineffectiveness in preventing infection and protecting one from severe disease, as shown in the breakthrough infections records of Medicare patients.
The lawsuit alleges that the federal government — and particularly the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which is ostensibly responsible for protecting public health by ensuring the safety, efficacy, and security of medical products — was aware of these issues yet intentionally withheld them from the public.

OBSERVATION - Not holding a lot of hope that this lawsuit will progress far as the swamp will pull the strings to get it stopped.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is announcing details of a framework to transform the food system to benefit consumers, producers and rural communities by providing more options, increasing access, and creating new, more, and better markets for small and mid-size producers. Today’s announcement builds on lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. This announcement also provides additional details on the June 2021 announcement to strengthen critical supply chains and address longstanding structural challenges that were revealed and intensified by the pandemic. The goals of USDA’s Food System Transformation framework include:-

1. Building a more resilient food supply chain that provides more and better market options for consumers and producers while reducing carbon pollution
2. Creating a fairer food system that combats market dominance and helps producers and consumers gain more power in the marketplace by creating new, more and better local market options.
3. Making nutritious food more accessible and affordable for consumers.
4. Emphasizing equity

OBSERVATION - OMG, govt control of food production and distribution. Government has done so well with other aspects of our lives.

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Economy - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last year insisted that high inflation would just be “transitory”, but now she is openly admitting that she “was wrong”...
“I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy [...] that I, at the time, didn’t fully understand.”

OBSERVATION - Given how grossly ‘wrong’ she was last year, one must ask themselves just how “wrong” are they now.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he is preparing the biggest U.S. bank for an economic hurricane on the horizon and advised investors to do the same.
“You know, I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it … it’s a hurricane,” Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York. While conditions seem “fine” at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is “a minor one or Superstorm Sandy,” he added.
“You’d better brace yourself,” Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”

OBSERVATION - I’d expect a CEO to be cautious and well informed when making such a statement as this, therefore I give his outlook pretty good credibility. If he is going to err, it is on the side of caution. There is a storm coming folks.

Gas prices increased five cents into Wednesday morning and topped a record high of $4.67 gallon, AAA data revealed. As drivers are confronted with a 50 percent gas price increase from last year, 18 states are hovering around $5 per gallon. For the first time in history, nationwide prices are exceeding $4 / gallon.

Biden said Wednesday that he didn’t think anyone anticipated the impact that shutting down the Abbott facility, which manufactures baby formula, would have on the nation’s supply.
“Well, I don’t think anyone anticipated the impact of the shutdown of one facility in — the Abbott facility, and it was accurately shut down because it was — the formula was questioned, in terms of its purity, and so, once we learned of the extent of it and how broad it was, we kicked everything into gear, and I think we’re — I think we’re on the way to be able to completely solve the problem,” he said.

OBSERVATION - Just one of the issues he and his cabinet have said they didn’t have a clue about the impacts of their actions (or inaction). Folks, I’m increasingly convinced that these events are deliberate and not due to poor understanding of the problem. Mexican store shelves are full of baby formula and baby food executives said that they knew how it would impact things immediately.

The USDA’s forecast for May predicts the cost of food will increase again and significantly by fall. The price of eggs increased 10.3% in April. The UDSA predicts an increase between 19.5% and 20.5% year over year in 2022. That could mean $1.00 an egg. Poultry prices will rise as much as 9.5%. Fish and seafood are rising rapidly too. The prices in April were 11.9% over the same month in April of 2021. Dairy consumption is up, and prices followed the trend with a 2.4% increase in April alone. Predictions for both categories were revised upward to 7-8% for 2022.
Prices for other meats had the largest increase within the “meats” category—2.2 percent—in April 2022. In 2022, pork prices are predicted to increase between 6.0 and 7.0 percent and other meat prices are predicted to increase between 9.0 and 10.0 percent. The aggregate categories of meats, poultry, and fish are predicted to increase between 7.0 and 8.0 percent, and meats are predicted to increase between 6.5 and 7.5 percent in 2022.

OBSERVATION - For those old enough to remember, these projections are the highest increases since the last year of the Carter administration.

Colusa County in Northern California is the top producer of rice in the Sacramento Valley. Colusa County historically produces more than 150,000 acres of rice in a normal year. But in 2022, Colusa officials say they will only be able to produce a fraction of their usual rice crop, costing rice farmers, workers and suppliers hundreds of millions of dollars.
“In April 2022, the water districts serving Colusa County were given their final allocation for the 2022 growing season – 0.4-acre feet per acre,” Colusa County officials said in a statement. “This allocation is not enough to support rice production, and estimates show that the Sacramento Valley will fallow 370,000 of 450,000 acres in the Sacramento River Settlement Contractors service area, primarily in Colusa and Glenn Counties. Currently, less than 7,000 acres are estimated to be planted in Colusa County, resulting in a direct financial loss to growers in excess of $270 million.”
The first 50% of California’s water flows out to the Pacific Ocean for fish and environmental purposes – something the Public Policy Institute of California verified in 2019: “Water in California is shared across three main sectors. Statewide, average water use is roughly 50% environmental, 40% agricultural, and 10% urban.”

OBSERVATION - I had to live in the Sacramento region for far too long of a time and am very familiar with the tens of thousands of acres of rice fields planted there. Loss of water for irrigation will not only affect the rice crops but other crops in the entire central valley. Your will pay more for less in the coming months.

Wide-spread megadrought conditions resulted in 50% of US pastures being rated as Poor to Very poor by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This has increased the need for artificial feed for cattle as inflation has driven up the price of feed corn (+30.4%) and hay (+45%). Increases in the price of feed now account for 24% of total beef production costs resulting in increased slaughter rates(+7%).

OBSERVATION - This is on top of last years disastrous season that hammered ranchers. Here in my part of the Redoubt, hay crops look to be in better shape due to spring rain/snow and projections of continued moisture into June. However, much of cattle/sheep lands are not fairing as well.
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Invasion of Illegals -
President Joe Biden’s open borders policies have led to a more than 10% surge in the United States’s illegal immigrant population, according to a new review of federal data. Numbers reviewed by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the illegal population grew from 10.2 million when Biden took office to 11.6 million in April.

OBSERVATION - These are most likely low range numbers. Just tracking BP numbers indicate that more than 1.4 Illegals broke into the country since biden seized power.

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Biden / Harris watch -
Large exodus of black interns from the WH, claiming toxic work environment.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina, and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, of Connecticut, are trying to work out details of a revised “red flag” legislation that they both hope can win sufficient GOP support to overcome a filibuster in the Senate.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told a crowd Wednesday in her hometown of San Francisco that the lower chamber will propose legislation banning so-called assault weapons in the coming weeks, The Hill reported.
Speaking at an event regarding gun violence prevention, Pelosi, D-Calif., said a bill tackling certain types of rifles would come after the House considers red flag laws — measures designed to keep weapons from potentially violent people. On Thursday, the House Judiciary Committee is also preparing to field a slate of anti-gun bills. Among them are proposals to prohibit high-capacity magazines and raise the minimum purchasing age for certain rifles.

OBSERVATION - Never letting a crisis go by with out exploiting it, gun grabbing legislation is likely to be the number one legislative agenda of the left as the midterms approach. While in general I agree with the concept that if a mentally unstable individual has been identified as a threat, actions should be taken to prevent a shooting (or what ever other method of murder they are thinking of) to date, red flag laws have been very vague on reporting and protecting the rights of the individual and due process. This revamped legislation is probably more of the same.
This is one of the vectors I’m looking at as November approaches.

Antifa will be buddying up with LGBT+ and proabort events this month. Low probability of violence beyond vandalization of facilities.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Nancy Pelosi put out a statement today to mark the beginning of “LGBTQ Pride Month” and accused Republicans of “targeting trans children” and “bullying LGBTQ students.”
“As right-wing forces attempt to silence LGBTQ voices and threaten to wind back hard-won progress, the struggle against hate remains as urgent as ever,” Pelosi said.

NOTE - I’ll be glad when June is over.
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Domestic Terror -
With another shooting in the US, the knee jerk reaction is to blame white supremists , however it turns out to be a non-white shooter. Huge effort to drive the ‘white supremist’ narrative at every opportunity.

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Cyber Warfare -
The Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said Dominion voting machines in “at least 16 states” have nine separate vulnerabilities requiring updates and safeguards before November’s midterm elections. CISA Director Brandon Wells said states need to enact “defensive measures to reduce the risk of exploitation of these vulnerabilities.” The CISA alert follows a court-ordered cyber research effort by J. Alex Halderman related to a 2017 Georgia lawsuit.
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China -
China appears to be preparing to launch its third, and most sophisticated aircraft carrier to date. Last week, China’s Maritime Safety Administration ordered all berths cleared at the Jiangnan Shipyard. The new carrier, dubbed the Type 003, will launch from drydock at Jiangnan and then have its weapons systems, communications and propulsion systems installed before the vessel is ready for sea trials. Type 003 is the first Chinese carrier that does not employ a ski ramp launch system for its fighter aircraft. It is not expected to be operational until 2024.

OBSERVATION - This new carrier is far more capable of projecting power than China’s two current carriers. The use of a catapult will permit fully fueled and armed aircraft to be launched - creating a greater strike range and effectiveness.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced Wednesday that military forces from its Eastern Theater Command will conduct a series of joint military exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - There seems to be an uptick in Chinese exercises and general preparations for an action of some kind against Taiwan. The may see a window of opportunity given the fixation on Ukraine. I don’t foresee a direct assault on the island with their current level of preparedness. I see an increasing likelihood of operations to seize associated smaller islands under Taiwanese control. Such move could gain Xi some support domestically among Chicom power players and secure his goal of a lifetime appointment as president of the country.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

State Dept announced US-Japan-ROK meetings on DPRK ICBM launches and COVID19 outbreak set to begin Thursday in Seoul.

South Korea plans to participate with its KF-16 fighters in a joint military exercise in Australia. The exercise, dubbed Pitch Black, will launch from Australian air force bases and is designed to enhance capabilities for combined operations and integration between partner nations.

OBSERVATION - This is part of a broader coalition being developed to defend against Chinese expansion in the East China Sea.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine’s request for U.S. multiple-launch rocket systems is a “direct provocation” that could lead to conflict. The U.S. announced it will send four High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to Ukraine. The U.S. said it will take three weeks to train Ukrainian soldiers and deliver the HIMARS, which itself could be considered a provocation by Russia.

Possibly in response to the US pledge to get HIMARS systems to Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has announced that they have begun Large-Scale Nuclear Maneuver Exercises in the Western Regions of the Country, these Exercises are said to reportedly include over 1000 Personnel and 100 Pieces of Equipment with Long-Range ICBMs.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers for the first half of the 10 day forecast period, followed by a drying period.

Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Zelensky: “The situation is very difficult; we’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters.” A month and a half ago, Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered 2,500-3,000 KIA and another ~10k WIA. If these daily losses are accurate for May, that would mean another 1,800-3,000 KIA and 15k WIA.

It appears that Ukraine is staging an orderly withdrawal from Sieverodonetsk. It is believed that the Russians control over 70% of the rubble that was the city. What this withdrawal does is place another significant river that Russia has to cross to continue the attack. Russian forces have made incremental progress, but at a continued high loss of men and equipment.

Ukrainan counter offensive north of Kherson has resumed with Russia scrambling to try to contain the breakout.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian aviation conducted 3 missile strikes in Krasnopillia community of Sumy region.
Russian army shelled Seredyna-Buda, Progres villages of Sumy region, and Leonivka of Chernihiv region

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More artillery strikes on the northeastern margin of Kharkiv. No significant changes on the ground.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient. Overnight, Russian artillery struck targets along the southern margin of the salient. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks on Dibrovne and Dovhenke, both within 20 kilometers south of Izyum

Fighting south of Lyman is ongoing and the bridge over the Donets still stands. Overnight Russian forces reportedly attacked towards Raihorodok, suffered loses and withdrew. Focus of the Russian thrust in this area is westward from Lyman towards Slovyansk. In order for Russian forces to gain access to Slovyansk via road, however, they would have to cross a bridge across the Severskyi Donets River outside of Raihorodok, and information indicates that Ukraine still controls the road and bridge.

Fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Russian has gained about 70% of the rubble that used to be a city. Russian attacked two towns on the southeast ends of the region - Bobrove and Ustynivka. However, battles for these smaller town have see-sawed between Russian and Ukraine.

Russian forces had minor success pushing northward from the Popasna salient towards Komyshuvakha, Nahirne and Bilohorivka.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Nothing significant to report. More attempted Russian/separatist assaults that gained no ground.

In Mariupol, a person that coordinates burials spoke with The Guardian, and estimates that the death toll in the city is close to 50,000. A lot of them are placed in mass graves, sometimes only identified by the apartment number they once lived in. Some bodies are still trapped under rubble, some were left in the street, and rotted away, some may have even disintegrated if they were struck directly by artillery or burned in a fire.

The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces transferred likely one T-62 tank battalion and one motorized rifle battalion to Vasylivka, approximately 50km south of Zaporizhia City. This is the first ‘organized’ T62 unit I’ve seen mentioned apart from the reports of T62s being shipped to the Mariupol region.

Crimea Front -
Ukraine’s counter offensive at Davydiv Brid continues. Russian forces have reportedly destroyed bridges over the Inhulets river to slow the attacks of Ukrainian forces. Russian artillery and air strikes targeted areas north and south of the crossing site in an apparent move to stem Ukraine from linking up with other forces in those directions. Ukraine forces are very close to a key highway supporting Russian forces further north and are likely close enough to the highway to disrupt its use as a main supply route, potentially undermining the Russians’ ability to hold against Ukrainian counter-offensives from the north.

Russian forces continued to fortify positions across southern Ukraine (Eastern Donbas and Crimea) in an effort to establish permanent control over occupied territories.

The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command said that Russian forces are transferring anti-aircraft missile systems, electronic warfare equipment, and multiple rocket launchers to Snake Island

Western Ukraine -
At least 4 explosions reported in Lviv region over night from missile strikes.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Ukrainan forces are still in a precarious position in the Sievierodonetsk salient. Ukraine has forced Russian into a very difficult situation because it was forced to devote the bulk of its resources to a relatively not significant town. Now Russia will be forced to face another difficult series of river crossings that have in the recent been devastating for them.

Cant forecast how long Ukraine will take to pull out from the Sievierodonetsk salient, but their supply (and evacuation) routes are still intact, so I suspect they’ll make Russia pay for every inch of ground.
When this battle is finished, Russia will be forced to reorient and reposition a lot of forces (as well as trying to replace men and equipment) for what ever their next phase is. This in turn gives Ukraine time to do same and is in a better shape to do so and faster.

Ukraine losses of up to 100/day are steep - Russia is paying a similar or higher price. However, Ukraine at the start began a million man mobilization whereas Russia has tried to avoid a large mobilization (though progressing on a lower key effort). With the influx of western supplied arms and equipment Ukraine can sustain for a long term conflict, whereas Russian, though populous, did not plan for such a long engagement and is hurting for manpower and having to pull out obsolete equipment for its units.

Weather is transitioning to dryer, summer conditions, which will permit greater off road maneuvering for Russian forces. This in turn will permit bypassing some cities and town strongholds. However, this would repeat the problems Russia had from the initial invasion, as these pockets will devastate logistics and reinforcements. Plus many of these cities / towns are on key road intersections, needed for continued operations. Will have to see if Russia has a plan to counter this.

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Syria -
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday warned NATO ally Turkey against a military offensive in northern Syria, saying it would “undermine regional stability”
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Turkey -
See Syria
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Misc of Note -
This one left me shaking my head -
The federal Department of Homeland Security, which is responsible for securing the border, enforcing the immigration laws and protecting the homeland against terrorists has published a statement advising women, among other things, to: “Eat a healthy and balanced diet.”

Regarding another fire at a poultry plant, Jim Geraghty at National Review made the point that the number of such disasters hasn’t actually increased:
“What we’re likely experiencing is the “Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon,” a.k.a. “frequency illusion” — when you hear a term and then feel like you’re suddenly seeing it everywhere. In reality, whatever you’re observing is occurring at the same frequency, it’s just that you didn’t notice it or ignored it before.
Because of the empty shelves earlier this year, people are paying much closer attention to supply chains these days”.
Observers note that no trend has emerged, it’s still something to keep an eye on. Many food processing and production facilities are pushing aging infrastructure beyond safe capacities resulting in loss of production from accidents, fires, and FDA-mandated closures. Losses will place more stress on an already overburdened domestic food supply system.

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Black Swans -

The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.
“They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino.
What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe, according to Columbia University climate scientist Richard Seager and MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.
La Nina has its biggest effect in the winter and that’s when it is a problem for the West because it’s the rainy season that is supposed to recharge areas reservoirs. But the West is in a 22-year megadrought, about the same time period of increasing La Nina frequency.

OBSERVATION - Climate change is not predictable by current models, therefore the models are based on flawed assumptions or inaccurate parameters. If it does manage to hit a third year, drought conditions will continue for the west - with its associated impacts on food and hydropower availability.

Running late - got grand kids needing my attention first.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Davos meetings are over, now the minions have their adjusted marching orders.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting.

Appearing on Fox News Wednesday, Anthony Fauci appeared to admit that the Biden administration’s efforts to reinstate mask mandates on planes and trains is about preserving “authority” over public health decisions, not about keeping people safe.
Speaking with Fox host Neil Cavuto, Fauci said “One of the issues, Neil, that I have articulated in the past and I will in the future – it’s less about mandates on the plane than it is about who has the right and the authority and the capability of making public health decisions.”
He continued, “I believe that the Department of Justice is operating on the principle that decisions that are public health decisions belong with the public health agency, in this case, the CDC.”
“So it’s more of a matter of principle of where the authority lies than it is about whether or not there’s gonna be a mandate on a plane or not,” Fauci declared

NOTE - Masks are all about a power projection, not the disease.

Speaking of masks - again, Kalifornia is facing recommendations from CDC that people mask up indoors again, including Sacramento and four surrounding counties due to high levels of wuhan. The change to a high level will also lead to a mask mandate for students at Sacramento City Unified School District starting June 6.

And the jab - Granada Hills Charter High School (GHCHS) in suburban Los Angeles County plans to prevent 70 seniors from participating in person in their outdoor graduation ceremonies on Thursday evening because they haven’t been jabbed.

A new study conducted by Israeli researchers and published in Nature demonstrated an over 25 percent increase in cardiovascular-related emergency calls in the young-adult population after the rollout of corona vaccines. The victims included both men and women. No similar increase was found among those who contracted coronavirus naturally.
Both Israel health authorities as well as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have acknowledged a link between coronavirus vaccines and specific cardiovascular complications. The risk of suffering from myocarditis following a second vaccine dose is currently estimated to be anywhere from 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000 in men aged 16-24.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world. Global food shortage concerns sparking local unrest .

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a “super bad feeling” about the economy and wants to cut about 10% of jobs at the electric carmaker, he said in an email to executives on Thursday seen by Reuters.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index measured -45 in May, down from -39 in each of the previous two months. It is the lowest reading in Gallup’s trend during the coronavirus pandemic, and likely the lowest confidence has been since the tail end of the Great Recession in early 2009.

The baby formula shortage continues to impact many families and worsen as formula makers and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigate what led to the national crisis.
For the week of May 22-May 29, the out-of-stock rate for infant formula jumped to 73.58% nationwide, according to recent data by analytics firm Datasembly. This is nearly 4% higher than last week and is a significant increase from two weeks ago when the out-of-stock rate stood at 45%.

OBSERVATION - To my knowledge, only three cargo jets containing baby formula have been scrambled under biden’s emergency solution. Three in two weeks. That is essentially nothing.

Union Pacific Rail Road (UPRR) a couple months ago made some headlines when it told fertilizer producers that it will require a reduction in the number of cars from those facilities is apparently hitting again. Pilot Flying J CEO Shameek Konar in testimony before the Surface Transportation Board stated “Pilot is facing a threat of severe reduction in rail service allocations,” testified Konar. “For Pilot, the service-reduction allocations are being imposed by the Union Pacific Railroad. On April 13, we were informed by the Union Pacific that we were required to reduce shipments [on rail] by 26%. In subsequent conversations we were asked to reduce them even further by 50% or face embargoes.”.
Such an embargo would impact the distribution of DEF, every 18-wheel diesel truck built after 2010 must use DEF to keep its emissions within federal standards. If a truck wants to stay on the road, it must use about seven gallons of DEF every time it fills up on diesel.
Pilot has 23 rail-served facilities that make the DEF, he explained. The Union Pacific (UP) trains delivers the raw product, which Pilot then makes into DEF, and then distributes by truck to its retail locations where truckers can obtain it. Union Pacific delivers about 45% of the material used by Pilot to make the special additive.
“Pilot operates the largest or one of the largest DEF supply networks in the country,” said Konar. “Of the 300 million gallons of DEF that Pilot supplies to the industry every year, 74% is moved by rail. Union Pacific’s restrictions [from 26% to 50%] will prevent Pilot from keeping many markets adequately supplied with DEF, likely causing shortages that will sideline trucks and reduce trucking capacity.”

OBSERVATION - UPRR made the decision earlier this year to prioritize rail cars it owns over rail cars owned by other companies. UPRR complains that transportation demands combined with worker and equipment shortages has forced them to make these decisions. However, UPRR is essentially tone deaf to the impact these restrictions are having on the economy as a whole. Konar notes in his testimony that if UPRR carries out their embargo, the results would be an additional 10% shortage of trucks on the road - just because of the lack of DEF alone.
I can’t say if this is a power play by UPRR to shut out trucking competition, but if so it will turn around and bit them very hard.

A top US food processing company warned of an upcoming shortage of its turkey products at supermarkets following one of the worst bird flu outbreaks.
“Our Jennie-O Turkey Store team is facing an uncertain period ahead,” Hormel Foods Corporation CEO Jim Snee told investors in an earnings call. “Similar to what we experienced in 2015, (avian influenza) is expected to have a meaningful impact on poultry supplies over the coming months.”
Since the USDA first detected bird flu in the US in mid-February, more than 38 million birds in 35 states have died. Out of that figure, 5 million turkeys in the US have been killed, with most deaths in Minnesota and South Dakota.

OBSERVATION - Remember, a lot of products are from poultry and related - especially eggs.

President Joe Biden’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters on Thursday that drivers will have to pay at least four dollars a gallon for the foreseeable future.
“The price of gas is likely to remain above $4 per gallon,” she said, based on data from the Department of Energy.
Granholm has said in the past that high gas prices will encourage people to buy more expensive, fuel-efficient vehicles.

OBSERVATION - They want to destroy the middle class to force ‘green’ upon us.

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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting the end of this month.

Watching to see if biden et al does an end around on the Title 42 court order.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Proabort protests have not gained traction after the USSC release of the draft decision reversing Roe v Wade. Antifa tag alongs to these protests have resulted in limited vandalism.

Biden demanded that lawmakers pass legislation to curb gun violence in the country in a speech last night. In addition to a ban on assault weapons, he demanded a limit on high capacity magazines, secure storage laws, “red flag” laws, universal background checks, and the removal of protection laws for gun manufacturers. He stressed that the Second Amendment, which gun proponents use to curb regulation, was not absolute. Some expect some republican support for watered down measures, but no outright bans.

OBSERVATION - We all know that these measures would not have stopped the shooting. But the democrats are desperate for anything to get public opinion to shift to supporting them as midterms approach.

OTOH, Sales of civilian guns have topped 1 million for 34 straight months. “The FBI this week said that background checks for May totaled 2,349,383, the third-highest ever for a May. Of those, industry officials said that about 1,174,791 were directly tied to the sale of a firearm.”

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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Welcome to ‘pride’ month and Biden et al is now blackmailing school districts into its view of transgenderism. If local parents don’t let boys into little girls’ bathrooms, locker rooms, and showers, then the feds will make sure the poorest children in their community don’t get the school-provided lunches American taxpayers pay for. As many as 30 million kids use these programs, meaning millions could go hungry. In fact, if parents in any way interfere with trans activist’s demands for how local schools should operate, all federal taxpayer support will be cut off.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.

At least three U.S. warships are operating in the Baltic Sea ahead of two weeks of international drills in the region, according to U.S. 6th Fleet. Big deck amphibious warship USS Kearsarge (LHD-3), amphib USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely (DDG-107) and command ship USS Mount Whitney (LCC-20) are operating in the Baltic Sea ahead of the BALTOPS 22 exercise series, USNI News has learned.

The U.S. is hosting the world’s largest naval war games in the Pacific ocean this summer in a loud message to China. All four members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (also known as “The Quad”) and at least five countries from the South China Sea will be in attendance.
In a Tuesday press release, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) said the 2022 Rim of the Pacific exercise (RIMPAC) will see 38 surface ships, four submarines, nine national land forces, more than 170 aircraft and approximately 25,000 personnel from 26 different countries. This year’s iteration of the biennial RIMPAC, which is the largest international maritime exercise, will run from June 29 through Aug. 4.

The Army is planning for its first Patriot Air Defense exercise on Palau. The Exercise is set for mid-June and will include a Patriot Battalion from Okinawa. Palau has been a strong ally of the U.S. in the Pacific rim region and has hosted other military exercises in the past.

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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
The US military has issued a stunning but perhaps not entirely unexpected admission that it has been conducting offensive cyber operations in support of Ukraine. It marks the first ever such acknowledgement, and suggests – as many observers have long suspected – a deeper Pentagon and US intelligence role in Ukraine against the Russian military than previously thought.

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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Shanghai attempting to come out of lockdown, but China is plagued with other economic minefields on top of pressuring the world and region to succumb to its authority.

Canada claims that Chinese jets repeatedly harassed one of its long-range patrol aircraft monitoring North Korea sanctions.

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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues and now under Wuhan lockdowns

No significant new information on either.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING - Crossing the 100 day mark of the war against Ukraine.

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia’s offensive to seize the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine has now shrunk down to capturing the city of Sieverodonetsk.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable

RUMINT -
- Newsweek reports that a classified US report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer and also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin’s life in March

Equipment Issues -
- After 100 days of war, the internet bean counters note that Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 750 tanks. By some other estimates, this number is believed to represent 60-70% of actual losses.

Economic Hits -
- Seventy-one more entities based in Russia and Belarus have been added to a list by the U.S. that bars American companies from doing business with them without a government license.
- Taiwan bans exports of modern chips faster than 25 mhz to Russia and Belarus.

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers scattered through out the 10 day forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces continue to slowly capture ground in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, in the eastern region of Luhansk Oblast. These are the last two significant towns in the Oblast. Russian attempting to close the pocket by pushing southward from Lyman and northward from Popasna.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Hudove of Sumy region, also shelled Bachivsk, Khodyne and Slavhorod,

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Near Kharkiv, Ukraine captured Vesele while Russia pushed towards Borschova. Russian continued to hit Khariv region with artillery and bombs.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient. Russia concentrated artillery fire all along the southern and southeastern margin of the salient. Russia also attempted an assault near Bohorodychne and Dolyna reportedly without success.

More concentrated Russian artillery strikes southwest of Lyman with Russian forces making gains near Lyman, capturing Yarova and Dibrova.

Fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Russia continued intense shelling of civilian infrastructure and positions of Ukrainian forces. Russian aviation also conducted airstrikes near the towns of Ustynivka and Borivske.

Russian forces are continuing to push northward from the Popasna salient Russian forces towards the towns of Komyshuvakha, Mykolaivka, Vrubivka, Berestove and Bilohorivka.

Russian ground forces continue to be unsuccessful forcing a northern pincer southward from Izyum to match advances from Popasna as well as failed advances the Slovyansk or Lyman areas.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian artillery struck targets along the LOC west of Donetsk. Russian / Separatist forces reportedly unsuccessfully attempted to assault Krasnohorivka and Poltavka.

Crimea Front -
Russian artillery focused on the breakthrough by Ukraine forces in the Pivdenny Buh area. Ukrainian forces are assessed as having successfully linked up with other units to the north, securing the bridgehead even further. Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from the Kryvyi Rih (southward?) to new positions.

South of the bridgehead, Russian forces are destroying transportation infrastructure to slow any southward drive.

Western Ukraine -
Russia struck the Beskidy railway near Lviv. This strike is significant, as it highlights Russia’s continued efforts to block weapons and fuel shipments to Ukraine.

Russian Territory -
Another suspicious fire, this time a plastic and rubber warehouse in Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia, that supposedly stores Russian military supplies including tires, rubber hoses, etc

OUTLOOK -

By shear mass and tons of artillery Russia will eventually accomplish the capture of Sieverodonetsk. However, as I’ve noted, they will need to take a stratigic pause and reorganize in order to attempt attacks to the west, with its less favorable terrain in the form of multiple river crossings, and poor force disposition.

Russia is still threatening US and NATO efforts to supply Ukraine with more modern weapons.
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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Spotty news but it looks like things are beginning to stabilize at a high level of tension.

Nothing significant to report.

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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine.

Numerous NATO deployments to Finland, Sweden and former Soviet controlled nations to protect from Russian attacks over their support of Ukraine.
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Pakistan - ORANGE *Updated 5-3-22*

Pakistan faces potential economic collapse as inflation jumps and widespread civil unrest could be nearing. The latest sign the South Asian country is spiraling into the abyss is rising electricity costs that threaten to close tens of thousands of businesses. Bloomberg reports that as many as 40,000 factories in Karachi, the country’s commercial capital, are being slapped with high power costs that make operating near impossible.
Pakistan is also a nuclear power, on a hair trigger towards India.

OBSERVATION - Pakistan is still going through violence related to the change in government. Such a closure would be devastating to its already struggling economy. This also raises a concern that political elites may stoke a conflict with neighboring India to distract public anger from domestic financial pain.

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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Israel has been conducting one of the largest exercises ever, “Chariots of Fire” exercise, openly directed towards potential conflict with Iran and Hezbollah.

A couple of days ago, Israeli Air Force conducted rehearsal for an attack on Iranian nuclear targets overnight. Around 100 planes from a series of air force bases took off and flew west over the Mediterranean Included were air refueling support from the US.

On Thursday IDF wrapped up a major military exercise in Cyprus, simulating a military ground offensive deep inside Lebanon in a potential war against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group.

The Israeli Navy wrapped up a “complex” and “lengthy” submarine drill in the Red Sea on Thursday morning, the military said. The drill came during a major monthlong exercise dubbed Chariots of Fire, the military’s largest in decades.

OBSERVATION - The size and scope of the “Chariots of Fire” exercises indicates that Israel is taking very seriously the option to preemptively strike Iran’s nuclear program and deal with Hezbollah attacks. It becomes likely that Israel is almost ready to execute.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

An Iranian Quds Force officer fell to his death after reports claimed he was accused of leaking information that led to the assassination of his “close associate.” The officer, reportedly identified as Colonel Ali Esmailzadeh, died on Monday after falling from the roof of his home in Karaj, near capital Tehran.
Esmailzadeh, reportedly a “close associate” of the slain officer, was interrogated and suspected of giving information to Western intelligence services. According to Iran International, the IRGC then quickly moved to dispose of the accused officer by staging his suicide.
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Syria - YELLOW
See Turkey’s announcement of a much larger offensive in the northern parts of Syria below.

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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey mostly in the news now blocking NATO membership of Sweden and Finland.

Türkiye (new spelling) is set to clear two areas of northern Syria, near the Turkish border, of terrorist elements in a bid to eliminate the terror threat from the region, the nation’s president said on Wednesday. “We are entering a new phase of our decision to establish safe zone 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) deep south (of the Turkish-Syrian border). We are clearing Tel Rifat and Manbij of terrorists,”

Joining calls by other nations, Russia urged Turkey not to launch an offensive in northern Syria after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed threats of a military campaign targeting Kurdish “terrorists”.
“We hope that Ankara will refrain from actions that could lead to a dangerous deterioration of the already difficult situation in Syria,” Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement on Thursday. “Such a move, in the absence of the agreement of the legitimate government of the Syrian Arab Republic, would be a direct violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and would “cause a further escalation of tensions in Syria”, she added.

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Misc of Note -
The World Health Organization is now saying that the monkeypox virus has been “spreading undetected” around the globe for “some time.” And it’s unclear how long the virus has been spreading undetected outside Africa, said to Dr. Rosamund Lewis, the WHO’s monkeypox technical lead.

The World Health Organization on Wednesday confirmed more than 550 monkeypox cases across 30 countries as the virus continues to spread across the globe, according to a report by CNBC. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the sudden appearance of monkeypox in multiple countries across the world indicates the virus has been spreading undetected for some time outside the West and Central African nations where it is usually found.

Things in Ukraine became interesting overnight and the GGR continues to plot global take over.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The Bilderberg Group began its annual meeting today, and you won’t hear much about it. The Bilderberg Meeting is completely private with very strict security measures in place to make sure nothing leaks.
WEF is the public-facing plan and seeing reactions. They throw everything against the wall and monitor what is said about their evil proposals. Bilderberg is about receiving the message and addressing the data collected. They look at public and media sentiment and then determine how to act.
Reportedly, key topics for discussion this year at their secret event are:

1. Geopolitical Realignments
2. NATO Challenges
3. China
4. Indo-Pacific Realignment
5. Sino-US Tech Competition
6. Russia
7. Continuity of Government and the Economy
8. Disruption of the Global Financial System
9. Disinformation
10. Energy Security and Sustainability
11. Post Pandemic Health
12. Fragmentation of Democratic Societies
13. Trade and Deglobalisation
14. Ukraine

OBSERVATION - Back in the before time, this meeting was red meat for conspiracy folks. Now it is reality. This is reportedly where the real globalist rubber meets the road. WEF outlines goals, Bilderberg puts it into action. The released topics alone are disturbing to say the least.
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Wuhan virus -

Covid vaccinations for children under age 5 are expected to begin as early as June 21, a senior Biden administration health official said on Thursday.
Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House Covid response coordinator, said the Biden administration will initially make 10 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines available to states, pharmacies and community health centers. States can begin placing orders on Friday, Jha said, but the vaccine doses will ship only after the Food and Drug Administration authorizes the shots.
The FDA is expected to make its decision on Pfizer and Moderna’s Covid shots for infants through preschoolers soon after the agency’s committee of independent experts reviews the data on June 15, Jha said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would then issue its recommendations quickly after the FDA decision, which would allow vaccinations to begin after the Juneteenth federal holiday, he said.

OBSERVATION - What ever you do, don’t allow your kids to get jabbed. They are by far the least risk demograpohic of this declining plandemic.

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Economy - The monthly jobs report for May shows the US added 390K jobs to the economy. However, economists are still sounding the alarm about an impending recession. Recessions generally result in layoff of the work force which in turn increases unemployment.

OBSERVATION - Like most economic numbers published by the govt, they are cooked to make things look better than they are.

An Inspector General from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) will be digging into what exactly went wrong with the Biden administration’s handling of the nation-wide baby formula shortage, the agency said Thursday.

OBSERVATION - Whitewash and coverup.

Biden is planning to visit Saudi Arabia later this month, a departure from his vow as a presidential candidate to treat the country as a “pariah” state. His visit to Riyadh follows broader efforts by his administration to build ties with the oil-rich nation to reduce the price of gas in the United States.

OBSERVATION - Kills US production, seek help from those exploiting our gov’t stupidity.

U.S. new-car sales dipped below an annualized 13 million vehicles in May, prompting analysts at RBC to say they are at “recessionary levels,” although demand is still heated and auto makers offer few if any incentives to those looking to buy a new vehicle. By RBC’s reckoning, the May U.S. light-vehicle seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of sales came in at 12.8 million vehicles, below RBC’s forecast of 13.4 million vehicles and down from April’s 14.6 million.
Industry observers note that ‘recessionary’ levels of demand are expected to be in the (2 million to 13 million range.

OBSERVATION - Like housing, this indicator is pointing to what some believer are the harbingers of a recession that has already started.

Lumber prices have been halved since the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive interest rate tightening campaign in decades as the pandemic boom in housing slows.
Lumber contracts trading on the CME crashed to $653 per thousand board feet, down 51% from a high in late February of $1,336. The decline in wood prices occurred about two weeks before the Fed began hiking interest rates in mid-March.

OBSERVATION - Leading indicator of a housing construction slowdown due to mortgage rates too high to be afforded by inflation sacked home seekers. This will pressure sale prices of existing homes to continue to rise as availability falls. If you have the money, may be a good time to make necessary repairs around the house.
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Invasion of Illegals -
(CNS) Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has approved the use of border barrier funds, not to build a border barrier or wall, but to spend on projects that will improve safety for border agents — and illegal border crossers.
The projects include:
— Replacing a dilapidated train gate with a modernized train gate in El Centro “to address current life and safety risks posed to Agents and migrants due to regular train operations.”
— Constructing retractable gates under an existing bridge across the New River in Imperial County, California “to address risks associated with the extremely hazardous river waters.”
— Constructing a train and vehicle gate in the El Paso Sector “to address current life and safety risks posed to Agents and migrants due to regular train operations.”
— Replacing a deteriorated, corroded barrier in Imperial Beach, California that “currently poses safety risks to Border Patrol Agents, community members, and migrants.”
— Closing a gap by constructing a vertical lift gate system over the Tijuana River “to address safety concerns resulting from the polluted conditions of the river channel.”
— Closing a small gap in the Yuma Sector that remains as a result of previous border barrier construction “and poses a life and safety risk to Agents and the community.”
— Completing 17 gates and conducting site clean-up work in the Rio Grande Valley Sector “that currently makes it difficult for Border Patrol Agents to efficiently access certain areas and for first responders to respond to incidents.”

OBSERVATION - Repeating my self, the biden regime et al has no interest in stopping illegals.

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Biden / Harris watch -
Joe Biden is preparing for another weekend away in Delaware as the president is on track to take more vacation than any other of his predecessors.
So far since taking office, Biden has spent 188 full or partial days away from the White House vacationing in either of his two Delaware properties, at Camp David or on the Massachusetts island of Nantucket.

OBSERVATION - Our country is turning into a third world country and with 500 days in office and he’s taken 188 vacation days!

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Tucker Carlson has accused Democrats of wanting to tighten up restrictions on who can own guns because they fear the public will ‘rise up’ against them. He said on Wednesday night that Democrats were not interested in saving lives, and only concerned with power. If any of the people in charge wanted this to be a safer country, they wouldn’t have caused the current crime wave in the first place,’ Carlson told his viewers.
‘They would not have defunded police. They wouldn’t be encouraging open-air drug markets in our cities. They wouldn’t be sending crack pipes to addicts. ‘But they’re not worried about the public health at all. What they’re worried about is public resistance to their policies. Disarming the population ends that resistance.’

OBSERVATION - Say what you will about Carlson, he is spot on this assessment. We have history showing disarmament of the people by the govt ends up with those citizens being killed by same govt.

In November 2020, Oregon voters approved ballot measure 110, making Oregon the first state in the nation to decriminalize the possession of hard drugs. However, the pie in the sky measure has not its promised goals. According to one Republican politician there had been a 700 percent in overdoses in her district in the last year.

OBSERVATION - Just like the needle exchange programs to make thing drugs “safer”, what has been created is an even larger problem. My view is that the powers that be WANT a drugged citizenry - easier to control in a way, and making people more dependent on Govt as their savior from the very problem they created.

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China -
The Chinese government has requested a meeting in Singapore next week with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin according to multiple media reports. The planned meeting at the Shangri-La Dialogue to focus on ‘managing competition’ between U.S. & China.”
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported aides to Austin and their Chinese counterparts had been working to set up a meeting between Austin and Wei while Austin visits Singapore. Singapore is hosting the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Security Summit, also known as the “Shangri-La Dialogue” from June 10 to 12. Both the U.S. and China have been regular attendees at the annual defense and security policy summit.

OBSERVATION - Should be interesting, if legitimate, to hear what terms China is going to dictate to the US.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

The United States is preparing a variety of contingencies in close coordination with Japan & SK as U.S. officials say that a North Korean nuclear test could be imminent. The U.S. is prepared to make military posture changes if a NK provocation takes place, per officials to AP.

OBSERVATIONS - Many observers are puzzled at just WHAT the US is trying to say here. If NK conducts a nuke test, are we going to war?

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev warned Thursday that if Ukraine uses U.S.-supplied missile systems against Russia, Moscow “will have no choice but to be forced to retaliate against decision-making centers.”
“It is clear that if, God forbid, these types of weapons [multiple launch rocket systems] are used against Russian territories, the Armed Forces of our country will have no choice but to act to defeat decision-making centers,” Medvedev said, according to UrduPoint. He also said that the “decision-making centers” referenced are the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of Ukraine, Izvestia reports.
OBSERVATION - Could involve more focused strikes on Ukrainan government buildings and centers.

RUMINT -
Russia’s war chief in Ukraine hasn’t been seen for weeks, NYT reported, citing US officials. Some officials speculate he may have been removed from his post as top commander. Gen. Alexander Dvornikov was dubbed “The Butcher of Syria,” and was reportedly designated theatre commander in April as part of Russia’s “Phase 2” operations to seize the Donbas region. These operations have yet to provide significant victories. There is speculation that he was replaced by General Gennady Zhidko, former commander of the Eastern Military District and Moscow’s Deputy Defense Minister for Political Affairs. As noted by analyst Ruslan Leviev, the removal can be linked to a “rotation process” of the senior operational management of the armed forces, “similar to the one seen in Syria”, given that it does not appear at the moment to be the result of an administration considered disappointing.

Logistics -
- Russian and proxy forces reportedly have not sufficiently prepared frontline units with medical supplies, leading to abysmal medical care. This was a major problem during the initial phase of the fighting, and it appears that it may not have been adequately addressed for the Phase 2 operations.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers over the 10 day forecast period.

RUMINT -
(ISW) A Russian milblogger published a lengthy message on June 3 claiming that nearly the entire 35th Combined Arms Army has been destroyed in Izyum due to incompetent Russian commanders. A Russian milblogger under the pseudonym Boytsovyi Kot Murz said that Russian commanders did not account for combat challenges in the Izyum woods, leading to significant losses in the 64th and 38th Separate Guard Motor Rifle Brigades, which he reported now have less than 100 servicemen in total. Very little progress has been made out of Izyum since the initial break out several weeks ago.

Increasing reports that Russian private military company servicemen from Wagner are increasingly refusing to participate in combat, leading to a significant lack of advances on various parts of the Severodonetsk pocket.

The Ukrainian General Staff also claimed that unspecified elements of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the Combined Arms Army suffered up to 50% losses of personnel and equipment in Popasna, though this statement is unlikely to refer to the division as a whole. Progress out of Popasna has slowed to a crawl since the initial break out a couple weeks ago.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Sources indicate that a Ukrainan counter attack has thrown Russian forces back out of a significant portion of Severodonetsk. The on the ground situation is still kind of foggy, but Ukraine may have lured Russian forces - and in particular Wagner Group and Chechen mercenaries into a trap. More in discussion below.

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are increasingly jamming all possible signals and hindering Ukrainian drone operations. The Ukrainian General Staff has previously reported that Russian forces intensified EW operations in Donbas, likely in an effort to obstruct Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance and drone strikes on Russian units.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire, situation on the ground is unchanged.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation, fog of war in full effect now

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient as well as the nearby Lyman area. Russian attacks out of those areas likely in support of the attempt to seize Severodonetsk are at a standstill. In part due to the diversion of resources and priority to the battle at Severodonetsk proper. Overnight Russian launched more unsuccessful attacks along the southern margin of the salient. South of Lyman near Staryi Karavan, Russian army attempted to seize the left (east) bank of Sieversky Donets river. Otherwise this area Russian advances are at a standstill. See RUMINT above for potential reasons for the stalling of the Russian push out of Izyum.

Overnight breaking reports of a Ukrainan counter attack in Severodonetsk that swept through the northern and central portions of the town. Ukrainian Luhansk governor Serhiy Gayday says more than half of Severodonetsk is retaken by Ukraine army and Ukrainian Foreign Legion units.

There is confusion on the operation since there were reports of Ukrainian forces were in the process of staging an orderly withdrawal from the city. Initial observations were that the counter attack was to prevent encirclement of the remaining combat personnel. Analysts are mixed, dome saying that this was a tactic to lure the Russians into a killing zone and others that Ukraine have lost the city but are throwing in more men. If reporting holds up, Ukraine has struck a major blow to the Russian operation to seize the town.

What is apparent is that Ukraine forces are using close contact with Russian forces and as a result are negating the massive Russian artillery and air superiority. Now the Russians are in the city they cannot use their artillery anymore as they could hit their own soldiers.

Other unconfirmed reports going along with the luring Russians into a kill zone relates to an operation to eliminate Wagner Group and Chechen mercenaries that are reportedly leading the effort to seize Severodonetsk. While highly trained and equipped, they have been the tip of the spear for much of the Severodonetsk pocket effort, and as a result, highly attritted. Rumors that since they are mercenaries, and the money does nothing for them if dead, has caused them to start backing out of battle.

The battle for Severodonetsk has taken an interesting turn and can change quickly.

Russian forces had minor success pushing northward from the Popasna salient towards Komyshuvakha, Nahirne and Bilohorivka. See RUMINT above on suspected Russian losses impacting operations out of Popasna.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russians shelled cities of Donetsk region 14 times in last 24 hours, there are wounded civilians and severe damage to properties

Crimea Front -
Russian missile strikes reportedly hit Odessa again overnight.

Ukrainian conducted airstrikes near Ivanivka, Davydiv Brod and Soldatske of Kherson region, in support of the Pivdenny Buh counter attack. Russian struggling to contain the Ukraine break out and the use of Ukraine air assets to support its attack is evidence of how weakened the Russia presence was. Reports of Russian trying to get reserves into the area to stop the counter offensive.

Western Ukraine -
Scattered missile attacks.

Russian Territory -
Russian aviation agency extended restrictions in Southern Russian airports until 12th June

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Chaos has broken loose in Severodonetsk with the apparently successful counter attack by Ukraine. Ukraine is also attempting to build upon its success in the Pivdenny Buh region, threatening over extended Russian unit flanks and Russian occupied Kherson.

Ukraine is picking its counter offensives well, identifying Russian weaknesses as well as Ukraine strategic goals and hitting while the iron is hot. It will be interesting to see how the counter attack/offensive in Severodonetsk is going to play out. Ukraine placed Russian forces into another meat grinder and if the reports of more Russian morale and supply issues are accurate, hit them in urban combat Russians so far have been poor at. Ukraine also appears to recognize Russian weakness to provide close in artillery support to units - thus allowing Ukraine to close in with Russians on a playing field to their advantage without the massive artillery they’ve dealt with there so far. The overall resistance put up by Ukraine has forced Russia to strip other sectors of forces, leaving less combat effective units to defend other sectors, line Kherson Oblast.

Finally, theatre leadership of the Russian army is up for grabs once again. While it is apparent that some control has been established, judging from the focus of resources against Severodonetsk, the shrinking of Russian objectives to just one city suggests Dvornikov has been ineffective. Putin cans more generals in the Kremlin doesn’t help matters. On the ground Russia has managed to eke out minor gains, on a larger level they are losing the war.
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Belarus -

Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya claims that the regime of self-proclaimed President Aleksandr Lukashenko gave orders to Belarusian troops to attack Ukraine, but the highest echelon of officers denied to comply it.

OBSERVATION - This rumor of refusal to comply with Lukashenko’s orders to join the attack circulated during the first month of the conflict. This may give greater credibility to the reports.

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Relatively brief today. Expect delayed posts for the foreseeable future.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Due to lawsuits in the UK and a global backlash over the Biden administration’s effort to give control of the health care and partial sovereignty of every nation on earth to the World Health Organization (WHO), 12 of the 13 amendments to the International Health Treaty (IHR; also called the International Pandemic Treaty) that Biden wanted were temporarily removed from consideration (one source said the amendments were tabled because the WHO didn’t have enough votes to pass them).
Every nation was given permission to submit amendments until Sept. 2022, and all the amendments will be considered in Nov. 2022.

OBSERVATION - Another ‘vector’ pointing to a very dangerous fall season.
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Economy -

Abbott Nutrition’s baby formula plant in Sturgis, Michigan, became operational Saturday after nearly four months of a mandated closure. The reopening of the Sturgis plant came roughly three weeks after the deal with the FDA was announced on May 16, a few days longer than the two-week timeline that was presented. The last word from the company was that it would take approximately two -three weeks before production starts to make significant impact on shortages. It is expected that baby formula will reportedly be in short supply well into July.
OBSERVATION - Four months of closure, and there were already shortages before that. SMH.
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Biden / Harris watch -

According to NBC reports, Biden’s handlers postponed his trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia on Friday.
Biden was expected to visit the two countries to push the insane Iranian nuclear deal that both nations oppose. No reason was given for the delate. Visits have been postponed until July, accrding to WH officials.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan concluded a naval exercise with South Korea in the Philippine Sea on Saturday. The three-day exercise that began Thursday in international waters off the Japanese island of Okinawa was apparently the allies’ first joint drill involving a U.S. aircraft carrier since November 2017.
NOTE - See NK rocket launches, possibly in response to the end of the exercise.

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China -

The Chinese government has requested a meeting in Singapore next week with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin according to multiple media reports. The planned meeting at the Shangri-La Dialogue to focus on ‘managing competition’ between U.S. & China.”
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported aides to Austin and their Chinese counterparts had been working to set up a meeting between Austin and Wei while Austin visits Singapore. Singapore is hosting the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Security Summit, also known as the “Shangri-La Dialogue” from June 10 to 12. Both the U.S. and China have been regular attendees at the annual defense and security policy summit.

OBSERVATION - Should be interesting, if legitimate, to hear what terms China is going to dictate to the US.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea launched 8 ballistic missiles into the East Sea. Likely some type of strike drill. Rather unprecedented. Also unusual were the flight profiles - missiles flew 110-670 km at top altitude of 25-90 km according to S. Korean military.

OBSERVATION - May have been timed to mark the conclusion of US/SK naval exercise.

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Japan -

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering attending a summit of leaders from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in late June to spur coordination with the West over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter said.
The move would mark an unusually aggressive stance for a Japanese leader although Kishida has repeatedly condemned Russia over what he has described as a “war crime” against Ukraine.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Stepping back on the rhetoric recently putin announced that the U.S. supplying of Ukraine with MLRS does not change calculus, Ukraine had missiles with such range before. He does hold firm against longer range missiles.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Some rain/showers over the 10 day forecast period with a warming and drying trend.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Dynamics of the Ukrainian counter attack in Severodonetsk continue to ripple out. The success of the attack has been reportedly both Ukrainan and Russian sources. One of the common stories coming from Russian milbloggers reports is that Chechen units likely thought that they had successfully secured Severodonetsk and were unprepared for the counterattack. The attack inflicted significant casualties against the Chechen units.

Russian occupation authorities are unable to entirely suppress Ukrainian partisan activity, despite ongoing efforts to restrict movement and telecommunications in occupied territories. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast enhanced their security and began wearing bulletproof vests and driving in armored vehicles due to Ukrainian resistance.

Kyiv front -
First missile strikes in weeks hit the Kyiv area, principally railway infrastructure targets in Darnitsa and Dniprovsky districts . Russian claims the strikes destroyed tanks and other armored vehicles on the outskirts of Kyiv that had been provided to Ukraine by European countries.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire, situation on the ground is unchanged.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation, fog of war in full effect now

The battle for Severodonetsk has taken an interesting turn and can change quickly.
According to a Ukrainian official, Ukrainian forces have been able to regain control of half of the city of Severodonetsk, though this is largely unconfirmed. Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack in Severodonetsk. Eastern part of the city is reportedly still under Russian control. Russia reportedly has committed its reserves to help regain lost parts of the city.

Governor Serhiy Haidai said Russian forces suffered severe defeats and were blowing up bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River to prevent Ukraine bringing in military reinforcements and delivering aid to civilians in Severodonetsk.

If Severodonetsk falls, neighboring Lysychansk would be the last city that Russia needs to capture to have full control of Luhansk province.

NOTE - There s a lot of fog of war, propaganda and PSYOPS flying associated with the latest turn of events. What is evident is that Ukraine’s counter attack was very successful, catching the Russian forces flat footed and denied their artillery support. Given Russia’s priority to capture the city, it is very likely that they have commited their reserve forces to the battle.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian artillery struck the cities of Donetsk region again. This is likely a precursor to a new offense if the pattern holds. Russia did the same at the start of the Severodonetsk region offensive.

Crimea Front -
Russian army failed in an attempt to capture lost positions near Sukhy Stavok and Lozove in the Pivdenny Buh breakout.

Russian forces launched missile strikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts and continued to shell Mykolaiv City and Kherson Oblast

Western Ukraine -
Scattered missile attacks.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. This is the kind of fight Ukraine wants in this situation - up close and personal - denying much of Russia’s artillery action if fear of hitting their troops.

At this stage I see the Ukraine counter attack as limited, designed to force commitment of dedicated Russian reserves as well as forcing the Russians to pull more troops off other fronts. This would make Russia more vulnerable to Ukraine counter offensives in those locations. If one believes Russian milbloggers, things are going from bad to worse for Russian’s fight in eastern Ukraine. The things being complains about are essentially the same as what plagued them in their fight for Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Ukraine maintains pressure against Kherson and east of Kharkiv (towards the Russian border), forcing Russian to maintain forces there.

One area to watch is the potential for Russia to finally try to break out northward from Donetsk region. The moderately successful pattern of massive artillery then ground advances seen in eastern Ukraine looks to be playing out here. This sector must be more active is Russia is to even have a chance to complete its capture of the Donbas. However, given the mauling in the east, Russia is assessed at not having enough forces to accomplish that goal and as such is focusing on capture of Luhansk Oblast with grabbing (and holding) what ever it can elsewhere.

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