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Looking at the items below, my observations just keep being repeated. Let me quickly summarize my concerns of the ‘perfect storm’ hitting this fall.

1. Midterms elections - democrats not going to go down without a fight
2. Economic meltdown focusing down on the latter half of the year due to rampant inflation caused by uncontrolled fuel, energy, food, housing, medical and other essential costs - all feeding on each other.
3. Housing bubble bursting (see #2 above) due to Fed prime rate increases.
4. Shortages increasing in key items - baby formula (nope won’t be ‘fixed’ before fall, as well as other food products), construction supplies, diesel and truckers.
5. Associated increasing probability of a deep recession or even depression from #2 and #3.
6. Pending social unrest/violence driven by impending USSC Roe v Wade decision and progressive /rino efforts to strip 2d amendment rights from citizens (see also #1 above). Include loss of other rights too.
7. Illegal tsunami and associated criminal activity overloading social services, drug influx and human trafficking just for starters. Especially if Title 42 is eliminated or circumvented by the regime.
8. Ongoing Ukraine war and unanticipated consequences
9. Globalist efforts to control the world via WHO actions or other.
This is just a short list, and note the deep intertwining of factors too. I don’t want to be redundant in my observations but the trends are inescapable. I further don’t like being an alarmist, but once again, the trends are there and there is nothing biden is doing (or not doing) that is going to change them. Even a republican controlled congress will not change things.

When TM was started, it was assessing the threat of Islamic terror to the US. Now our greater threat has morphed to a more direct govt tyranny and globalist controls. IMHO, time is short to make preparations.

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Globalism / Great Reset -
The Stockholm+50 two-day meeting begins tomorrow, 2 June 2022, and follows months of consultations and discussions with individuals, communities, organizations, and governments around the world. Announcement of the meeting states -
Stockholm+50: a healthy planet for the prosperity of all – our responsibility, our opportunity”
(Stockholm+50) will take place five decades after the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. The event will provide leaders with an opportunity to draw on 50 years of multilateral environmental action to achieve the bold and urgent action needed to secure a better future on a healthy planet.
Per Bolund, Sweden’s former Minister for the Environment and Climate, and Deputy Prime Minister, said “Our aim is clear, we want Stockholm+50 to make a concrete contribution to accelerating the transformation to a sustainable future. We call this meeting to commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the 1972 conference. We are running out of time and urgent action is needed. These challenges are global, and we must meet them with a global response that drives action on the ground.”

OBSERVATION - Key agenda is pushing the world to a fossil fuel free economy.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has partnered with German telecommunications company Deutsche Telekom to create a global Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine verification app. The WHO’s partnership with the company is meant to “link every person on the planet to a QR code digital ID” that will allow for the establishment of a global vaccine passport verification system.
Global vaccine passport system part of WHO’s pandemic treaty. If the WHO’s plans proceed accordingly, the treaty could come into effect by 2024. When it does, governing authority during a pandemic will effectively be transferred to the WHO and, by extension, the United Nations.
A component of the WHO’s plans is a global vaccine passport system. The organization claims this system is necessary to support its efforts in fighting pandemics. “This system will be universal, mandatory, transnational and operated by unelected bureaucrats in a captured NGO who already bungled the COVID pandemic response,” warned the Brownstone Institute, a think tank that is opposed to COVID-19 measures that deprive people of health freedom.

OBSERVATION - Global control and tracking on ‘health’ as well as economic, climate awareness and social justice will proceed incrementally, but this global vaccine passport system would be a huge jump. Already we’ve seen countries / global associations implement the wuhan passport on a smaller scale. This is just an upgrade, permitting control by WHO and controlling globalists over lives of global citizens. NOTE that the pandemic treaty is currently on hold.
OMG - in the before times this would have been hard core conspiracy theory, now openly discussed and trying to be implemented by the powers that be.

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Wuhan virus -
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky warned that Pfizer’s COVID-19 pill Paxlovid can lead to a rebound in symptoms.
“If you take Paxlovid, you might get symptoms again,” Walensky told CBS News on Tuesday. “We haven’t yet seen anybody who has returned with symptoms needing to go to the hospital. So, generally, a milder course.”
Another researcher who is not affiliated with the CDC said that he has observed such a scenario.
“People who experience rebound are at risk of transmitting to other people, even though they’re outside what people accept as the usual window for being able to transmit,” Dr. Michael Charness of the Veterans Administration Medical Center in Boston told CNN on Tuesday.

OBSERVATION - Follow the money.

America’s Frontline Doctors, a group of medical professionals who work to promote early COVID-19 treatments and to expose the influence of pharmaceutical companies on federal decision-making, is suing the U.S. government over the COVID vaccination campaign. The latter is called by the plaintiffs “the greatest fraud in the history of the world.”
The suit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama on February 16 includes a comprehensive amount of evidence regarding such pressing issues as serious side effects linked to COVID vaccinations recorded in the U.S. military and COVID vaccines’ ineffectiveness in preventing infection and protecting one from severe disease, as shown in the breakthrough infections records of Medicare patients.
The lawsuit alleges that the federal government — and particularly the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which is ostensibly responsible for protecting public health by ensuring the safety, efficacy, and security of medical products — was aware of these issues yet intentionally withheld them from the public.

OBSERVATION - Not holding a lot of hope that this lawsuit will progress far as the swamp will pull the strings to get it stopped.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is announcing details of a framework to transform the food system to benefit consumers, producers and rural communities by providing more options, increasing access, and creating new, more, and better markets for small and mid-size producers. Today’s announcement builds on lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. This announcement also provides additional details on the June 2021 announcement to strengthen critical supply chains and address longstanding structural challenges that were revealed and intensified by the pandemic. The goals of USDA’s Food System Transformation framework include:-

1. Building a more resilient food supply chain that provides more and better market options for consumers and producers while reducing carbon pollution
2. Creating a fairer food system that combats market dominance and helps producers and consumers gain more power in the marketplace by creating new, more and better local market options.
3. Making nutritious food more accessible and affordable for consumers.
4. Emphasizing equity

OBSERVATION - OMG, govt control of food production and distribution. Government has done so well with other aspects of our lives.

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Economy - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last year insisted that high inflation would just be “transitory”, but now she is openly admitting that she “was wrong”...
“I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy [...] that I, at the time, didn’t fully understand.”

OBSERVATION - Given how grossly ‘wrong’ she was last year, one must ask themselves just how “wrong” are they now.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he is preparing the biggest U.S. bank for an economic hurricane on the horizon and advised investors to do the same.
“You know, I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it … it’s a hurricane,” Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York. While conditions seem “fine” at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is “a minor one or Superstorm Sandy,” he added.
“You’d better brace yourself,” Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”

OBSERVATION - I’d expect a CEO to be cautious and well informed when making such a statement as this, therefore I give his outlook pretty good credibility. If he is going to err, it is on the side of caution. There is a storm coming folks.

Gas prices increased five cents into Wednesday morning and topped a record high of $4.67 gallon, AAA data revealed. As drivers are confronted with a 50 percent gas price increase from last year, 18 states are hovering around $5 per gallon. For the first time in history, nationwide prices are exceeding $4 / gallon.

Biden said Wednesday that he didn’t think anyone anticipated the impact that shutting down the Abbott facility, which manufactures baby formula, would have on the nation’s supply.
“Well, I don’t think anyone anticipated the impact of the shutdown of one facility in — the Abbott facility, and it was accurately shut down because it was — the formula was questioned, in terms of its purity, and so, once we learned of the extent of it and how broad it was, we kicked everything into gear, and I think we’re — I think we’re on the way to be able to completely solve the problem,” he said.

OBSERVATION - Just one of the issues he and his cabinet have said they didn’t have a clue about the impacts of their actions (or inaction). Folks, I’m increasingly convinced that these events are deliberate and not due to poor understanding of the problem. Mexican store shelves are full of baby formula and baby food executives said that they knew how it would impact things immediately.

The USDA’s forecast for May predicts the cost of food will increase again and significantly by fall. The price of eggs increased 10.3% in April. The UDSA predicts an increase between 19.5% and 20.5% year over year in 2022. That could mean $1.00 an egg. Poultry prices will rise as much as 9.5%. Fish and seafood are rising rapidly too. The prices in April were 11.9% over the same month in April of 2021. Dairy consumption is up, and prices followed the trend with a 2.4% increase in April alone. Predictions for both categories were revised upward to 7-8% for 2022.
Prices for other meats had the largest increase within the “meats” category—2.2 percent—in April 2022. In 2022, pork prices are predicted to increase between 6.0 and 7.0 percent and other meat prices are predicted to increase between 9.0 and 10.0 percent. The aggregate categories of meats, poultry, and fish are predicted to increase between 7.0 and 8.0 percent, and meats are predicted to increase between 6.5 and 7.5 percent in 2022.

OBSERVATION - For those old enough to remember, these projections are the highest increases since the last year of the Carter administration.

Colusa County in Northern California is the top producer of rice in the Sacramento Valley. Colusa County historically produces more than 150,000 acres of rice in a normal year. But in 2022, Colusa officials say they will only be able to produce a fraction of their usual rice crop, costing rice farmers, workers and suppliers hundreds of millions of dollars.
“In April 2022, the water districts serving Colusa County were given their final allocation for the 2022 growing season – 0.4-acre feet per acre,” Colusa County officials said in a statement. “This allocation is not enough to support rice production, and estimates show that the Sacramento Valley will fallow 370,000 of 450,000 acres in the Sacramento River Settlement Contractors service area, primarily in Colusa and Glenn Counties. Currently, less than 7,000 acres are estimated to be planted in Colusa County, resulting in a direct financial loss to growers in excess of $270 million.”
The first 50% of California’s water flows out to the Pacific Ocean for fish and environmental purposes – something the Public Policy Institute of California verified in 2019: “Water in California is shared across three main sectors. Statewide, average water use is roughly 50% environmental, 40% agricultural, and 10% urban.”

OBSERVATION - I had to live in the Sacramento region for far too long of a time and am very familiar with the tens of thousands of acres of rice fields planted there. Loss of water for irrigation will not only affect the rice crops but other crops in the entire central valley. Your will pay more for less in the coming months.

Wide-spread megadrought conditions resulted in 50% of US pastures being rated as Poor to Very poor by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This has increased the need for artificial feed for cattle as inflation has driven up the price of feed corn (+30.4%) and hay (+45%). Increases in the price of feed now account for 24% of total beef production costs resulting in increased slaughter rates(+7%).

OBSERVATION - This is on top of last years disastrous season that hammered ranchers. Here in my part of the Redoubt, hay crops look to be in better shape due to spring rain/snow and projections of continued moisture into June. However, much of cattle/sheep lands are not fairing as well.
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Invasion of Illegals -
President Joe Biden’s open borders policies have led to a more than 10% surge in the United States’s illegal immigrant population, according to a new review of federal data. Numbers reviewed by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the illegal population grew from 10.2 million when Biden took office to 11.6 million in April.

OBSERVATION - These are most likely low range numbers. Just tracking BP numbers indicate that more than 1.4 Illegals broke into the country since biden seized power.

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Biden / Harris watch -
Large exodus of black interns from the WH, claiming toxic work environment.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina, and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, of Connecticut, are trying to work out details of a revised “red flag” legislation that they both hope can win sufficient GOP support to overcome a filibuster in the Senate.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told a crowd Wednesday in her hometown of San Francisco that the lower chamber will propose legislation banning so-called assault weapons in the coming weeks, The Hill reported.
Speaking at an event regarding gun violence prevention, Pelosi, D-Calif., said a bill tackling certain types of rifles would come after the House considers red flag laws — measures designed to keep weapons from potentially violent people. On Thursday, the House Judiciary Committee is also preparing to field a slate of anti-gun bills. Among them are proposals to prohibit high-capacity magazines and raise the minimum purchasing age for certain rifles.

OBSERVATION - Never letting a crisis go by with out exploiting it, gun grabbing legislation is likely to be the number one legislative agenda of the left as the midterms approach. While in general I agree with the concept that if a mentally unstable individual has been identified as a threat, actions should be taken to prevent a shooting (or what ever other method of murder they are thinking of) to date, red flag laws have been very vague on reporting and protecting the rights of the individual and due process. This revamped legislation is probably more of the same.
This is one of the vectors I’m looking at as November approaches.

Antifa will be buddying up with LGBT+ and proabort events this month. Low probability of violence beyond vandalization of facilities.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Nancy Pelosi put out a statement today to mark the beginning of “LGBTQ Pride Month” and accused Republicans of “targeting trans children” and “bullying LGBTQ students.”
“As right-wing forces attempt to silence LGBTQ voices and threaten to wind back hard-won progress, the struggle against hate remains as urgent as ever,” Pelosi said.

NOTE - I’ll be glad when June is over.
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Domestic Terror -
With another shooting in the US, the knee jerk reaction is to blame white supremists , however it turns out to be a non-white shooter. Huge effort to drive the ‘white supremist’ narrative at every opportunity.

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Cyber Warfare -
The Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said Dominion voting machines in “at least 16 states” have nine separate vulnerabilities requiring updates and safeguards before November’s midterm elections. CISA Director Brandon Wells said states need to enact “defensive measures to reduce the risk of exploitation of these vulnerabilities.” The CISA alert follows a court-ordered cyber research effort by J. Alex Halderman related to a 2017 Georgia lawsuit.
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China -
China appears to be preparing to launch its third, and most sophisticated aircraft carrier to date. Last week, China’s Maritime Safety Administration ordered all berths cleared at the Jiangnan Shipyard. The new carrier, dubbed the Type 003, will launch from drydock at Jiangnan and then have its weapons systems, communications and propulsion systems installed before the vessel is ready for sea trials. Type 003 is the first Chinese carrier that does not employ a ski ramp launch system for its fighter aircraft. It is not expected to be operational until 2024.

OBSERVATION - This new carrier is far more capable of projecting power than China’s two current carriers. The use of a catapult will permit fully fueled and armed aircraft to be launched - creating a greater strike range and effectiveness.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced Wednesday that military forces from its Eastern Theater Command will conduct a series of joint military exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - There seems to be an uptick in Chinese exercises and general preparations for an action of some kind against Taiwan. The may see a window of opportunity given the fixation on Ukraine. I don’t foresee a direct assault on the island with their current level of preparedness. I see an increasing likelihood of operations to seize associated smaller islands under Taiwanese control. Such move could gain Xi some support domestically among Chicom power players and secure his goal of a lifetime appointment as president of the country.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

State Dept announced US-Japan-ROK meetings on DPRK ICBM launches and COVID19 outbreak set to begin Thursday in Seoul.

South Korea plans to participate with its KF-16 fighters in a joint military exercise in Australia. The exercise, dubbed Pitch Black, will launch from Australian air force bases and is designed to enhance capabilities for combined operations and integration between partner nations.

OBSERVATION - This is part of a broader coalition being developed to defend against Chinese expansion in the East China Sea.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia initially hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, Russia has failed in this attempt and has continually narrowed its focus now to capturing Sievierodonetsk

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine’s request for U.S. multiple-launch rocket systems is a “direct provocation” that could lead to conflict. The U.S. announced it will send four High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to Ukraine. The U.S. said it will take three weeks to train Ukrainian soldiers and deliver the HIMARS, which itself could be considered a provocation by Russia.

Possibly in response to the US pledge to get HIMARS systems to Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has announced that they have begun Large-Scale Nuclear Maneuver Exercises in the Western Regions of the Country, these Exercises are said to reportedly include over 1000 Personnel and 100 Pieces of Equipment with Long-Range ICBMs.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers for the first half of the 10 day forecast period, followed by a drying period.

Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Zelensky: “The situation is very difficult; we’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters.” A month and a half ago, Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered 2,500-3,000 KIA and another ~10k WIA. If these daily losses are accurate for May, that would mean another 1,800-3,000 KIA and 15k WIA.

It appears that Ukraine is staging an orderly withdrawal from Sieverodonetsk. It is believed that the Russians control over 70% of the rubble that was the city. What this withdrawal does is place another significant river that Russia has to cross to continue the attack. Russian forces have made incremental progress, but at a continued high loss of men and equipment.

Ukrainan counter offensive north of Kherson has resumed with Russia scrambling to try to contain the breakout.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian aviation conducted 3 missile strikes in Krasnopillia community of Sumy region.
Russian army shelled Seredyna-Buda, Progres villages of Sumy region, and Leonivka of Chernihiv region

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More artillery strikes on the northeastern margin of Kharkiv. No significant changes on the ground.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient. Overnight, Russian artillery struck targets along the southern margin of the salient. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks on Dibrovne and Dovhenke, both within 20 kilometers south of Izyum

Fighting south of Lyman is ongoing and the bridge over the Donets still stands. Overnight Russian forces reportedly attacked towards Raihorodok, suffered loses and withdrew. Focus of the Russian thrust in this area is westward from Lyman towards Slovyansk. In order for Russian forces to gain access to Slovyansk via road, however, they would have to cross a bridge across the Severskyi Donets River outside of Raihorodok, and information indicates that Ukraine still controls the road and bridge.

Fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Russian has gained about 70% of the rubble that used to be a city. Russian attacked two towns on the southeast ends of the region - Bobrove and Ustynivka. However, battles for these smaller town have see-sawed between Russian and Ukraine.

Russian forces had minor success pushing northward from the Popasna salient towards Komyshuvakha, Nahirne and Bilohorivka.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Nothing significant to report. More attempted Russian/separatist assaults that gained no ground.

In Mariupol, a person that coordinates burials spoke with The Guardian, and estimates that the death toll in the city is close to 50,000. A lot of them are placed in mass graves, sometimes only identified by the apartment number they once lived in. Some bodies are still trapped under rubble, some were left in the street, and rotted away, some may have even disintegrated if they were struck directly by artillery or burned in a fire.

The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces transferred likely one T-62 tank battalion and one motorized rifle battalion to Vasylivka, approximately 50km south of Zaporizhia City. This is the first ‘organized’ T62 unit I’ve seen mentioned apart from the reports of T62s being shipped to the Mariupol region.

Crimea Front -
Ukraine’s counter offensive at Davydiv Brid continues. Russian forces have reportedly destroyed bridges over the Inhulets river to slow the attacks of Ukrainian forces. Russian artillery and air strikes targeted areas north and south of the crossing site in an apparent move to stem Ukraine from linking up with other forces in those directions. Ukraine forces are very close to a key highway supporting Russian forces further north and are likely close enough to the highway to disrupt its use as a main supply route, potentially undermining the Russians’ ability to hold against Ukrainian counter-offensives from the north.

Russian forces continued to fortify positions across southern Ukraine (Eastern Donbas and Crimea) in an effort to establish permanent control over occupied territories.

The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command said that Russian forces are transferring anti-aircraft missile systems, electronic warfare equipment, and multiple rocket launchers to Snake Island

Western Ukraine -
At least 4 explosions reported in Lviv region over night from missile strikes.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Ukrainan forces are still in a precarious position in the Sievierodonetsk salient. Ukraine has forced Russian into a very difficult situation because it was forced to devote the bulk of its resources to a relatively not significant town. Now Russia will be forced to face another difficult series of river crossings that have in the recent been devastating for them.

Cant forecast how long Ukraine will take to pull out from the Sievierodonetsk salient, but their supply (and evacuation) routes are still intact, so I suspect they’ll make Russia pay for every inch of ground.
When this battle is finished, Russia will be forced to reorient and reposition a lot of forces (as well as trying to replace men and equipment) for what ever their next phase is. This in turn gives Ukraine time to do same and is in a better shape to do so and faster.

Ukraine losses of up to 100/day are steep - Russia is paying a similar or higher price. However, Ukraine at the start began a million man mobilization whereas Russia has tried to avoid a large mobilization (though progressing on a lower key effort). With the influx of western supplied arms and equipment Ukraine can sustain for a long term conflict, whereas Russian, though populous, did not plan for such a long engagement and is hurting for manpower and having to pull out obsolete equipment for its units.

Weather is transitioning to dryer, summer conditions, which will permit greater off road maneuvering for Russian forces. This in turn will permit bypassing some cities and town strongholds. However, this would repeat the problems Russia had from the initial invasion, as these pockets will devastate logistics and reinforcements. Plus many of these cities / towns are on key road intersections, needed for continued operations. Will have to see if Russia has a plan to counter this.

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Syria -
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday warned NATO ally Turkey against a military offensive in northern Syria, saying it would “undermine regional stability”
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Turkey -
See Syria
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Misc of Note -
This one left me shaking my head -
The federal Department of Homeland Security, which is responsible for securing the border, enforcing the immigration laws and protecting the homeland against terrorists has published a statement advising women, among other things, to: “Eat a healthy and balanced diet.”

Regarding another fire at a poultry plant, Jim Geraghty at National Review made the point that the number of such disasters hasn’t actually increased:
“What we’re likely experiencing is the “Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon,” a.k.a. “frequency illusion” — when you hear a term and then feel like you’re suddenly seeing it everywhere. In reality, whatever you’re observing is occurring at the same frequency, it’s just that you didn’t notice it or ignored it before.
Because of the empty shelves earlier this year, people are paying much closer attention to supply chains these days”.
Observers note that no trend has emerged, it’s still something to keep an eye on. Many food processing and production facilities are pushing aging infrastructure beyond safe capacities resulting in loss of production from accidents, fires, and FDA-mandated closures. Losses will place more stress on an already overburdened domestic food supply system.

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Black Swans -

The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.
“They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino.
What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe, according to Columbia University climate scientist Richard Seager and MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.
La Nina has its biggest effect in the winter and that’s when it is a problem for the West because it’s the rainy season that is supposed to recharge areas reservoirs. But the West is in a 22-year megadrought, about the same time period of increasing La Nina frequency.

OBSERVATION - Climate change is not predictable by current models, therefore the models are based on flawed assumptions or inaccurate parameters. If it does manage to hit a third year, drought conditions will continue for the west - with its associated impacts on food and hydropower availability.

Running late - got grand kids needing my attention first.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Davos meetings are over, now the minions have their adjusted marching orders.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting.

Appearing on Fox News Wednesday, Anthony Fauci appeared to admit that the Biden administration’s efforts to reinstate mask mandates on planes and trains is about preserving “authority” over public health decisions, not about keeping people safe.
Speaking with Fox host Neil Cavuto, Fauci said “One of the issues, Neil, that I have articulated in the past and I will in the future – it’s less about mandates on the plane than it is about who has the right and the authority and the capability of making public health decisions.”
He continued, “I believe that the Department of Justice is operating on the principle that decisions that are public health decisions belong with the public health agency, in this case, the CDC.”
“So it’s more of a matter of principle of where the authority lies than it is about whether or not there’s gonna be a mandate on a plane or not,” Fauci declared

NOTE - Masks are all about a power projection, not the disease.

Speaking of masks - again, Kalifornia is facing recommendations from CDC that people mask up indoors again, including Sacramento and four surrounding counties due to high levels of wuhan. The change to a high level will also lead to a mask mandate for students at Sacramento City Unified School District starting June 6.

And the jab - Granada Hills Charter High School (GHCHS) in suburban Los Angeles County plans to prevent 70 seniors from participating in person in their outdoor graduation ceremonies on Thursday evening because they haven’t been jabbed.

A new study conducted by Israeli researchers and published in Nature demonstrated an over 25 percent increase in cardiovascular-related emergency calls in the young-adult population after the rollout of corona vaccines. The victims included both men and women. No similar increase was found among those who contracted coronavirus naturally.
Both Israel health authorities as well as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have acknowledged a link between coronavirus vaccines and specific cardiovascular complications. The risk of suffering from myocarditis following a second vaccine dose is currently estimated to be anywhere from 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000 in men aged 16-24.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world. Global food shortage concerns sparking local unrest .

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a “super bad feeling” about the economy and wants to cut about 10% of jobs at the electric carmaker, he said in an email to executives on Thursday seen by Reuters.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index measured -45 in May, down from -39 in each of the previous two months. It is the lowest reading in Gallup’s trend during the coronavirus pandemic, and likely the lowest confidence has been since the tail end of the Great Recession in early 2009.

The baby formula shortage continues to impact many families and worsen as formula makers and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigate what led to the national crisis.
For the week of May 22-May 29, the out-of-stock rate for infant formula jumped to 73.58% nationwide, according to recent data by analytics firm Datasembly. This is nearly 4% higher than last week and is a significant increase from two weeks ago when the out-of-stock rate stood at 45%.

OBSERVATION - To my knowledge, only three cargo jets containing baby formula have been scrambled under biden’s emergency solution. Three in two weeks. That is essentially nothing.

Union Pacific Rail Road (UPRR) a couple months ago made some headlines when it told fertilizer producers that it will require a reduction in the number of cars from those facilities is apparently hitting again. Pilot Flying J CEO Shameek Konar in testimony before the Surface Transportation Board stated “Pilot is facing a threat of severe reduction in rail service allocations,” testified Konar. “For Pilot, the service-reduction allocations are being imposed by the Union Pacific Railroad. On April 13, we were informed by the Union Pacific that we were required to reduce shipments [on rail] by 26%. In subsequent conversations we were asked to reduce them even further by 50% or face embargoes.”.
Such an embargo would impact the distribution of DEF, every 18-wheel diesel truck built after 2010 must use DEF to keep its emissions within federal standards. If a truck wants to stay on the road, it must use about seven gallons of DEF every time it fills up on diesel.
Pilot has 23 rail-served facilities that make the DEF, he explained. The Union Pacific (UP) trains delivers the raw product, which Pilot then makes into DEF, and then distributes by truck to its retail locations where truckers can obtain it. Union Pacific delivers about 45% of the material used by Pilot to make the special additive.
“Pilot operates the largest or one of the largest DEF supply networks in the country,” said Konar. “Of the 300 million gallons of DEF that Pilot supplies to the industry every year, 74% is moved by rail. Union Pacific’s restrictions [from 26% to 50%] will prevent Pilot from keeping many markets adequately supplied with DEF, likely causing shortages that will sideline trucks and reduce trucking capacity.”

OBSERVATION - UPRR made the decision earlier this year to prioritize rail cars it owns over rail cars owned by other companies. UPRR complains that transportation demands combined with worker and equipment shortages has forced them to make these decisions. However, UPRR is essentially tone deaf to the impact these restrictions are having on the economy as a whole. Konar notes in his testimony that if UPRR carries out their embargo, the results would be an additional 10% shortage of trucks on the road - just because of the lack of DEF alone.
I can’t say if this is a power play by UPRR to shut out trucking competition, but if so it will turn around and bit them very hard.

A top US food processing company warned of an upcoming shortage of its turkey products at supermarkets following one of the worst bird flu outbreaks.
“Our Jennie-O Turkey Store team is facing an uncertain period ahead,” Hormel Foods Corporation CEO Jim Snee told investors in an earnings call. “Similar to what we experienced in 2015, (avian influenza) is expected to have a meaningful impact on poultry supplies over the coming months.”
Since the USDA first detected bird flu in the US in mid-February, more than 38 million birds in 35 states have died. Out of that figure, 5 million turkeys in the US have been killed, with most deaths in Minnesota and South Dakota.

OBSERVATION - Remember, a lot of products are from poultry and related - especially eggs.

President Joe Biden’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters on Thursday that drivers will have to pay at least four dollars a gallon for the foreseeable future.
“The price of gas is likely to remain above $4 per gallon,” she said, based on data from the Department of Energy.
Granholm has said in the past that high gas prices will encourage people to buy more expensive, fuel-efficient vehicles.

OBSERVATION - They want to destroy the middle class to force ‘green’ upon us.

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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting the end of this month.

Watching to see if biden et al does an end around on the Title 42 court order.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Proabort protests have not gained traction after the USSC release of the draft decision reversing Roe v Wade. Antifa tag alongs to these protests have resulted in limited vandalism.

Biden demanded that lawmakers pass legislation to curb gun violence in the country in a speech last night. In addition to a ban on assault weapons, he demanded a limit on high capacity magazines, secure storage laws, “red flag” laws, universal background checks, and the removal of protection laws for gun manufacturers. He stressed that the Second Amendment, which gun proponents use to curb regulation, was not absolute. Some expect some republican support for watered down measures, but no outright bans.

OBSERVATION - We all know that these measures would not have stopped the shooting. But the democrats are desperate for anything to get public opinion to shift to supporting them as midterms approach.

OTOH, Sales of civilian guns have topped 1 million for 34 straight months. “The FBI this week said that background checks for May totaled 2,349,383, the third-highest ever for a May. Of those, industry officials said that about 1,174,791 were directly tied to the sale of a firearm.”

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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Welcome to ‘pride’ month and Biden et al is now blackmailing school districts into its view of transgenderism. If local parents don’t let boys into little girls’ bathrooms, locker rooms, and showers, then the feds will make sure the poorest children in their community don’t get the school-provided lunches American taxpayers pay for. As many as 30 million kids use these programs, meaning millions could go hungry. In fact, if parents in any way interfere with trans activist’s demands for how local schools should operate, all federal taxpayer support will be cut off.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.

At least three U.S. warships are operating in the Baltic Sea ahead of two weeks of international drills in the region, according to U.S. 6th Fleet. Big deck amphibious warship USS Kearsarge (LHD-3), amphib USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely (DDG-107) and command ship USS Mount Whitney (LCC-20) are operating in the Baltic Sea ahead of the BALTOPS 22 exercise series, USNI News has learned.

The U.S. is hosting the world’s largest naval war games in the Pacific ocean this summer in a loud message to China. All four members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (also known as “The Quad”) and at least five countries from the South China Sea will be in attendance.
In a Tuesday press release, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) said the 2022 Rim of the Pacific exercise (RIMPAC) will see 38 surface ships, four submarines, nine national land forces, more than 170 aircraft and approximately 25,000 personnel from 26 different countries. This year’s iteration of the biennial RIMPAC, which is the largest international maritime exercise, will run from June 29 through Aug. 4.

The Army is planning for its first Patriot Air Defense exercise on Palau. The Exercise is set for mid-June and will include a Patriot Battalion from Okinawa. Palau has been a strong ally of the U.S. in the Pacific rim region and has hosted other military exercises in the past.

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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
The US military has issued a stunning but perhaps not entirely unexpected admission that it has been conducting offensive cyber operations in support of Ukraine. It marks the first ever such acknowledgement, and suggests – as many observers have long suspected – a deeper Pentagon and US intelligence role in Ukraine against the Russian military than previously thought.

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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Shanghai attempting to come out of lockdown, but China is plagued with other economic minefields on top of pressuring the world and region to succumb to its authority.

Canada claims that Chinese jets repeatedly harassed one of its long-range patrol aircraft monitoring North Korea sanctions.

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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues and now under Wuhan lockdowns

No significant new information on either.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING - Crossing the 100 day mark of the war against Ukraine.

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia’s offensive to seize the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine has now shrunk down to capturing the city of Sieverodonetsk.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable

RUMINT -
- Newsweek reports that a classified US report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer and also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin’s life in March

Equipment Issues -
- After 100 days of war, the internet bean counters note that Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 750 tanks. By some other estimates, this number is believed to represent 60-70% of actual losses.

Economic Hits -
- Seventy-one more entities based in Russia and Belarus have been added to a list by the U.S. that bars American companies from doing business with them without a government license.
- Taiwan bans exports of modern chips faster than 25 mhz to Russia and Belarus.

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers scattered through out the 10 day forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces continue to slowly capture ground in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, in the eastern region of Luhansk Oblast. These are the last two significant towns in the Oblast. Russian attempting to close the pocket by pushing southward from Lyman and northward from Popasna.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Hudove of Sumy region, also shelled Bachivsk, Khodyne and Slavhorod,

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Near Kharkiv, Ukraine captured Vesele while Russia pushed towards Borschova. Russian continued to hit Khariv region with artillery and bombs.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient. Russia concentrated artillery fire all along the southern and southeastern margin of the salient. Russia also attempted an assault near Bohorodychne and Dolyna reportedly without success.

More concentrated Russian artillery strikes southwest of Lyman with Russian forces making gains near Lyman, capturing Yarova and Dibrova.

Fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Russia continued intense shelling of civilian infrastructure and positions of Ukrainian forces. Russian aviation also conducted airstrikes near the towns of Ustynivka and Borivske.

Russian forces are continuing to push northward from the Popasna salient Russian forces towards the towns of Komyshuvakha, Mykolaivka, Vrubivka, Berestove and Bilohorivka.

Russian ground forces continue to be unsuccessful forcing a northern pincer southward from Izyum to match advances from Popasna as well as failed advances the Slovyansk or Lyman areas.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian artillery struck targets along the LOC west of Donetsk. Russian / Separatist forces reportedly unsuccessfully attempted to assault Krasnohorivka and Poltavka.

Crimea Front -
Russian artillery focused on the breakthrough by Ukraine forces in the Pivdenny Buh area. Ukrainian forces are assessed as having successfully linked up with other units to the north, securing the bridgehead even further. Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from the Kryvyi Rih (southward?) to new positions.

South of the bridgehead, Russian forces are destroying transportation infrastructure to slow any southward drive.

Western Ukraine -
Russia struck the Beskidy railway near Lviv. This strike is significant, as it highlights Russia’s continued efforts to block weapons and fuel shipments to Ukraine.

Russian Territory -
Another suspicious fire, this time a plastic and rubber warehouse in Naberezhnye Chelny, Russia, that supposedly stores Russian military supplies including tires, rubber hoses, etc

OUTLOOK -

By shear mass and tons of artillery Russia will eventually accomplish the capture of Sieverodonetsk. However, as I’ve noted, they will need to take a stratigic pause and reorganize in order to attempt attacks to the west, with its less favorable terrain in the form of multiple river crossings, and poor force disposition.

Russia is still threatening US and NATO efforts to supply Ukraine with more modern weapons.
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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Spotty news but it looks like things are beginning to stabilize at a high level of tension.

Nothing significant to report.

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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine.

Numerous NATO deployments to Finland, Sweden and former Soviet controlled nations to protect from Russian attacks over their support of Ukraine.
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Pakistan - ORANGE *Updated 5-3-22*

Pakistan faces potential economic collapse as inflation jumps and widespread civil unrest could be nearing. The latest sign the South Asian country is spiraling into the abyss is rising electricity costs that threaten to close tens of thousands of businesses. Bloomberg reports that as many as 40,000 factories in Karachi, the country’s commercial capital, are being slapped with high power costs that make operating near impossible.
Pakistan is also a nuclear power, on a hair trigger towards India.

OBSERVATION - Pakistan is still going through violence related to the change in government. Such a closure would be devastating to its already struggling economy. This also raises a concern that political elites may stoke a conflict with neighboring India to distract public anger from domestic financial pain.

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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Israel has been conducting one of the largest exercises ever, “Chariots of Fire” exercise, openly directed towards potential conflict with Iran and Hezbollah.

A couple of days ago, Israeli Air Force conducted rehearsal for an attack on Iranian nuclear targets overnight. Around 100 planes from a series of air force bases took off and flew west over the Mediterranean Included were air refueling support from the US.

On Thursday IDF wrapped up a major military exercise in Cyprus, simulating a military ground offensive deep inside Lebanon in a potential war against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group.

The Israeli Navy wrapped up a “complex” and “lengthy” submarine drill in the Red Sea on Thursday morning, the military said. The drill came during a major monthlong exercise dubbed Chariots of Fire, the military’s largest in decades.

OBSERVATION - The size and scope of the “Chariots of Fire” exercises indicates that Israel is taking very seriously the option to preemptively strike Iran’s nuclear program and deal with Hezbollah attacks. It becomes likely that Israel is almost ready to execute.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

An Iranian Quds Force officer fell to his death after reports claimed he was accused of leaking information that led to the assassination of his “close associate.” The officer, reportedly identified as Colonel Ali Esmailzadeh, died on Monday after falling from the roof of his home in Karaj, near capital Tehran.
Esmailzadeh, reportedly a “close associate” of the slain officer, was interrogated and suspected of giving information to Western intelligence services. According to Iran International, the IRGC then quickly moved to dispose of the accused officer by staging his suicide.
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Syria - YELLOW
See Turkey’s announcement of a much larger offensive in the northern parts of Syria below.

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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey mostly in the news now blocking NATO membership of Sweden and Finland.

Türkiye (new spelling) is set to clear two areas of northern Syria, near the Turkish border, of terrorist elements in a bid to eliminate the terror threat from the region, the nation’s president said on Wednesday. “We are entering a new phase of our decision to establish safe zone 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) deep south (of the Turkish-Syrian border). We are clearing Tel Rifat and Manbij of terrorists,”

Joining calls by other nations, Russia urged Turkey not to launch an offensive in northern Syria after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed threats of a military campaign targeting Kurdish “terrorists”.
“We hope that Ankara will refrain from actions that could lead to a dangerous deterioration of the already difficult situation in Syria,” Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement on Thursday. “Such a move, in the absence of the agreement of the legitimate government of the Syrian Arab Republic, would be a direct violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and would “cause a further escalation of tensions in Syria”, she added.

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Misc of Note -
The World Health Organization is now saying that the monkeypox virus has been “spreading undetected” around the globe for “some time.” And it’s unclear how long the virus has been spreading undetected outside Africa, said to Dr. Rosamund Lewis, the WHO’s monkeypox technical lead.

The World Health Organization on Wednesday confirmed more than 550 monkeypox cases across 30 countries as the virus continues to spread across the globe, according to a report by CNBC. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the sudden appearance of monkeypox in multiple countries across the world indicates the virus has been spreading undetected for some time outside the West and Central African nations where it is usually found.