Posted on 10/28/2021 11:39:57 AM PDT by Mount Athos
The swedes just did a large vaccine study using 842,972 pairs of people (1.7 million total). each pair had one vaxxed, one unvaxxed. it’s currently a preprint for “the lancet.” you can grab it HERE.
this was a retrospective study, but one in which the matching of cohorts was pretty good which improves the evidence quality quite a bit. it’s not a full RCT, but it’s a lot better than most of what’s getting published right now.
Vaccines start off reasonably effective, but they fade very quickly. This has long been a criticism and a complaint about the shortness of the drug trials on which their approval was based and the elimination of their control groups to prevent long term study.
Given these longer term results, it seems clear why they (Pfizer) chose to run short trials and then eliminate the control groups after about 90 days. because that’s when things start to go off the rails.
The downslope in efficacy against symptomatic infection is just starting right where pfizer and moderna ended their trials and vaccinated the control groups to make future comparison impossible.
The evidence that vaccines fail to stop spread has been clear for some time and not even the CDC argues it anymore.
What this study added that was terribly interesting was data on the prevention of severe covid. and this too drops rapidly.
At around 90 days, drop in efficacy is becoming noticeable. it’s under 50% by 6 months. by 250 days, it looks to be about 25%.
Hospitalization and death dropped as well. Worst of all, it drops most in the most vulnerable. the people who most need protection get the most rapid fade/least efficacy.
The efficacy of these vaccines wanes VERY rapidly. you’d need to boost every 3 months to keep it high and every 6 to keep it about about 30% on symptomatic infection and 45% on hospital/death.
so you’re rebuying immunity every 3-6 months, taking the adverse event risk again, and using it to avoid an outcome (getting covid) that is not terribly dangerous for most and thus getting very little absolute risk reduction (detailed discussion here). This was already a bad bet for most under 50 and pretty much anyone without comorbidities.
But having to make the bet, over and over, just to stand still means that eventually, it’s a bad bet for anyone because once you get covid, you rarely get it again and when you do, it’s mild. acquired immunity from recovery is FAR superior to vaccinated immunity and looks to be actually sterilizing as well so you’ll stop being a spread vector.
You cannot make a case for boosters by looking at efficacy alone, especially when “50% VE” actually maps to “half of 1% for under 50’s or 1/10th of 1% or less if under 50 and healthy.”
It does not take a lot of side effects to swamp that, especially if you have to keep running the risk over and over to avoid what is basically a one time outcome.
There is also an argument that leaky vaccines are causing superspread while at the same time actually making the virus worse by inverting its evolutionary gradient.
If those are true, the fact that efficacy fades here is the best news we have. We need to stop boosting and let it run down so we stop breeding for hotter strains that make us all worse off. (even the vaxxed)
The simple fact is this: rushing vaccines of a brand new type never before used in humans (but known to be problematic in animals) was always a deeply bad idea.
The trials were short and rigged to mask fade and side effects while overstating efficacy. VE was used instead of absolute risk reduction, and cost/benefit was not even considered.
The immunity was supposed to be sterilizing. it’s not.
The effects were supposed to be strong. they aren’t.
The efficacy was supposed to be durable. it isn’t.
They were supposed to protect the most vulnerable. but that’s who they work least well on.
And yet the one note flute of public health keeps pushing and mandating them despite all these new learnings that run counter to all the assumptions they made when proposing this policy.
The CDC told us it would stop spread.
Getting probably the most important salient of all totally wrong really ought to lead to a policy reassessment, not a doubling down.
The adverse events are FAR in excess of any other vaccines approved in FDA history.
Having called this safe should lead to a massive search for what else you missed.
Is there even a cessation condition here? is there any data that would lead the FDA to rethink or the politicians and health agencies to stop these programs?
Because it looks to me like “more boosters!” is the answer to every question.
That’s not the sign of evidence based medicine.
Nice!!! All the dhimmiRats that rushed to get the vaccine are all unvaxxed!!!
It most definitely is not a vaccine.
At best, it’s a palliative, meant to mask the worst symptoms of COVID. That’s worse than a vaccine because the infected person then has the false security of being “safe” around others.
It is proof that Medicine is dead - having been replaced by laboratory science.
Look up Marek’s disease.
This should have never have gotten out of a lab, but then neither should the virus.
Good article (as far as I can tell as a medical layman). Ping.
Not really.
A recent study in medRxiv showed that all three vaccines showed waning effectiveness after six months - Johnson & Johnson dropped from 88% to 3%, Pfizer dropped from 91% to 50%, and Moderna from 92% to 64%
Cohn, B., Cirillo, P, Murphy, C., Nickilou, K, & Wallace, A. (2021,October 13). Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in 620,000 U.S. Veterans, February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021. medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966
Big difference between ten weeks and ten years.
Thank you. It didnt help me understand the mechanism, but it did help in understanding the phenomena.
The waning efficacy has been known since before the EUAs were issued. First jab drops to the low 40% range after five weeks. I presume that is one of the reasons they made them 2-dose jabs spaced four weeks apart.
It is not a vaccine in the sense we generally think.
It’s a pre-treatment in case you do catch the virus.
Yes, there is.
And others have pointed out that Tetanus is a bacteria, not a virus.
IT is an experimental genetic therapy.
The mRNA carries instructions for cells to build antibodies for the ‘spike’ proteins of COVID-19. But the mRNA is used up when it is ‘read’ to pass on those instructions. The mRNA is not being reproduced itself, so eventually the supply runs out and the antibodies stop being produced.
I think.
Just like the Polio vaccine. 🤣🤣🤣
JK
The reason is that it is not a vaccine.
And there is a big difference between gangrene and lipstick.
(reference to old joke)
I guess you could call it a 'pre-treatment' as you refer, as it is touted to minimize the impacts of catching the real thing.
What I was hoping was that someone smart here could explain why the effects are so short lived. I am only able to guess. There are some fundamentals about the relationship between the virus and the spike proteins that still allude me.
Beginning to look like the unvaxed are the smart ones.
I guess thats similar to my simple understanding. I just dont have an understanding of why a real vaccine can continue to produce antibodies years later where this one does not. Maybe the mRNA process is bypassing a critical step required by the immune system to ‘remember’ the antibody production process???
Beginning?
In most of my comments online I refer to it as a “semi-vaccine”. It (they) clearly have some characteristics of a proper vaccine but not all. This is principally because the semi-vaccines target only a single protein on the antigen (spike protein), not the overall antigen as established real vaccines do. This single-protein thing is why no successful coronavirus vaccines had been developed over all these years. The overall antigen seems not to be amenable as a target. When this has been tried in veterinary research the result was a lot of dead lab animals.
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