Posted on 10/31/2020 11:42:22 AM PDT by OceanGazer
It’s the predictable prediction of late-trailing candidates: “Polls, shmolls. Election day turnout for me is gonna be ginormous.” Particularly predictable for Trump. Skepticism should govern these eleventh-hour electoral miracle claims. But this election may actually be an exception. Trump realistically could be saved by huge turnout from a certain “hidden” voting segment: seniors. Wait…seniors?!
Yes…younger seniors. The widely discussed Trump-has-lost-the-seniors narrative focuses on the 65+ crowd and misses this key point. Those aged mid-50’s to mid-60’s have not left Trump. In fact, this is the generational cohort which has polled highest for Trump throughout 2020. In many polls, it’s the only age group to favor him, and often by large margins. Some signs point to a massive turnout by this segment on election day itself. In studying generational electoral data for over twenty years, I’ve rarely seen a generation in such a potentially pivotal position.
Generational election stories get obscured by the standard age categories (e.g. 30–39) commonly used by political pollsters. Shame, because these stories can be crucial. With turnout, generational dynamics can sometimes bring voters to the polls far more than gender, race or socioeconomics. Some generational election stories are worth knowing.
This one is an updated version of that old 1946–1964 baby boom story. Today’s seniors were born primarily during that boom. Originally, all born then were lumped into one long generation. But many experts have since seen two distinct generations. I see the Baby Boom Generation born 1942 to 1953; Generation Jones born 1954 to 1965.
They came of age politically during fundamentally different eras. Boomers became the stereotypic 1960’s peace-and-love liberals, Jonesers the 1980’s Reagan Youth. For many years, Boomers were usually the most Democrat-voting generation, Jonesers the most GOP. Ironic that the two politically opposite generations would ever have been combined as one.
As both aged, they became more conservative; the typical life cycle effect. Boomers became GOP-voters, but squishy ones; still libs at heart. Jonesers somehow became even more conservative. Which is saying something.
Enter Trump. Boomers said yes in 2016. Then things soured. Boomers started leaving Trump even before the pandemic. Jonesers voted Trump in 2016 as well. Then things didn’t sour.
Can the huge Jones support translate into a Trump victory? Yes. The formative common denominators within a generation can be extraordinarily powerful motivators of voter turnout. And Trump has a secret weapon of sorts here with Generation Jones. A…well, trump card: Grievance. With a capital “G”.
Jonesers’ collective sense of grievance stems from huge expectations left unfulfilled. Jonesers had arguably the biggest childhood expectations in U.S. history. As they grew up, they were confronted with a dramatically different reality. Generation Jones was left with a certain underlying craving, jonesin’ quality (a main connotation of its moniker). A flip side of this jonesin’ is grievance. Jonesers crave what they were promised, and resent not getting it. No other American generation feels nearly as aggrieved.
Trump’s grievance comes from a whole other place. But the point is this man feels grievance. Very, very deep grievance. Jonesers bond with this viscerally and strongly. Super glue-strong.
Especially the aggrieved white working class male Jonesers. In the entire electorate, Trump support is most concentrated in them. They are arguably the core of the core of the Trump base. This is a substantial segment of GenJones, and many of them didn’t vote in 2016. The generational component magnifies the gender and socioeconomic factors. Their election day turnout numbers could be explosive.
Can Generation Jones be stoked by grievance to save a controversial, non-popular-vote-elected GOP President? It’s happened before. In 2004, like 2020, there were relatively few persuadable voters. Bush masterfully used grievance with cultural wedge issues to turn out his largely GenJones base. Especially the white working class male Jonesers who typically don’t vote. That support coalesced dramatically in the closing days. His final turnout numbers with GenJones were extraordinary, particularly in some battleground States. A Mason-Dixon Polling analysis found it was specifically the GenJones vote in the key battleground States which beat Kerry. Jones saved Bush. As the Polling Report’s post-election cover story concluded: “History will show that one generation of voters — Generation Jones — provided the decisive vote that re-elected George W. Bush.”
Will Generation Jones save Donald Trump? No predictable predictions from me. This essay doesn’t argue it will or won’t happen (nor is it for or against Trump). The point is that it realistically could happen. Neither Democrats nor Republicans should assume it’s over for Trump. Some generational election stories are worth knowing. In these final days before election day, it’s worth keeping up with the Jonesers.
I read many years ago that the cohort born 1960-64 was the most conservative age cohort in the US: the earlier Boomers got the party; the tail end of the boom got the ‘60s hangover, which soured us on leftist utopian BS.
Every 65+ member of our church including my husband and myself are ADAMENT Trump supporters. But then we’re in Texas.
How the hell could anybody aged 65+ vote for Democrats when the Democrats are promising to take away their Medicare and give them something else instead. That something else is Medicare for All and for Everybody in the World.
Born 1961...undoubtedly the most conservative member of my family and my workplace. The other quality of Generation Jones: We don’t believe what anyone is dealing out.
Right there with you. Born 1960 in MA. Apparently the only Conservative my family has ever produced.
And so many were worried that we were listening to heavy metal and flashing devil signs and indulging only in sex drugs and rock and roll and were going to be monsters :-)
you know it’s been 15 minutes since I wrote that first paragraph and I’m still trying to figure out how the heck we ended up being a pretty much conservative group :-)
I guess in the end it was just music and we knew it was just music. And any of the more cutting edge bands were just like musical horror movies. Nothing more and nothing less.
We mostly came from good families and we acted out in our teens like most teens do and that was that
Those of us approaching retirement want a president who will not kill our 401K’s.
Mine has done very well under Trump, thank you very much.
I arrived in 1967, just past the “official” Jones generation, but I can relate to this. Was definitely a Reagan youth. I’m the youngest of 5 boomers who are all conservative to varying degrees.
This article is bs..
People born 42-53 are not all aged hippies who turned into squishy Republicans.
Sure people get a bit more conservative as they age...
But the liberal hippies stayed mostly liberal, and most older conservatives were never liberal even when we were young.
I went to rock concerts and played in a band - but my parents were Goldwater conservatives and I never voted fir a Democrat in my life.
This article is missing the whole point of Donald Trump: he is a hard working uncorrupted businessman who is fighting for the American working class - that’s what any sane American wants running the country - including a lot of Democrats.
That’s why he will win - not because of shifting demographics...
He has the right message - and the Democrats have nothing..
We were a generation that understood irony, unlike the present younger cohort of wokescold ignoramuses.
I was born in 65. Dad was Goldwater conservative and all siblings are conservative but I’m the most conservative. I remember the economic misery of the 70’s and the go-go 80’s. In the 80’s you knew Reagan had the back of the average American and Main Street, and the country. I got to know first hand in the 70’s what misery Democrats and globalist can cause. I’ll take Trump again for continued growth and love of country.
Shut up and play music lol
Well I was born in 1968 so it was more the hair band era I grew up in.
They didn’t much mention politics but here and there the same BS came out.. Anti-nuke, anti-gun...but it was infrequent enough to ignore.
And guys like Dio and some others...like I said...they were the musical equivalent of a horror movie, usually a bad one lol, but I liked it :)
If all it takes is a song and an album cover to convert you to satan worship...you were in some trouble to begin with :)
Yea, the 70’s were grand. My school system in northern Ohio couldn’t afford to heat the schools, so we went in shifts in one old school, and a nearby factory sent some steam over in an underground tunnel for heat! Moved 1100 miles away for my first job- in my wrecked Chevette. Shall I continue?
Save Trump from what?
Great point. In fact, it was Jonesers — back in the 1970’s — who really fueled the sense of postmodern irony that has become such an integral part of out culture.
Um...losing the election. Who knows what happens here, but there is no denying that Trump is behind in the polls.
When we think about generations, we are not saying that every member possesses all the stereotypic characteristics. Of course “People born 42-53 are not all aged hippies who turned into squishy Republicans”. But in broad strokes it rings true.
People do tend to become more conservative as they age. As the British Parlamentarian Edmund Burke put it: “If you’re not a liberal at 20, you have no heart; if you’re not a conservative at 40, you have no head”
And as far as Trump: he has his good and bad points, but to claim he is an “uncorrupted businessman” is to ignore the Mount Everest of evidence that obviously says otherwise.
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