Electoral College has tightened despite media narrative that Biden is up

Freedom Window ^ | 09/07/20 | Aaron Rossiter

[TheRef]

My poll averages show the race has closed to within 17 electoral votes. Click the links to the right to see the polls and the map to see the electoral college. Likely voters in blue wall and red base states are coming back to Trump. Biden is acting like a candidate in trouble because he is. Blue state changes: WI, MN, MI; red ones: IA, GA, OH.

Despite national and some battleground polls showing Biden with a high single digit lead, the voter turnout assumptions undergirding those leads are not only wrong but laughably so.

Most polls reflecting such leads are assuming 100% turnout, yes, that is a 100% you just read. That is what a registered voter poll is, an assumption that every registered voter will turn out, and six of the seven national polls to come out the past few days are registered voter polls. Registered voter polls almost always pad the Democrat's lead. More on that below.

One so-called likely voter poll assumes 98% of registered voters will turn out and vote. Because about 20% of Americans are not registered to vote and about 80% are, this poll assumes almost an 80% turnout of the adult population. That hasn't happened since the US Civil War. Registered voter polls assume the same thing.

We usually get about 65-70% of registered voters and about 55% of the total eligible population. Obama only managed to squeeze out one election with a D+7 turnout and he brought just about every possible Democratic vote out.

In the last nine elections, Democrats have averaged a 3.5% advantage over Republicans and that includes Obama's D+6 and D+7 years which bumped up the average. Numerous factors indicate that turnout will be down. This year new registrations for Democrats are way down from normal.

[TECTopcat]

Very solid analysis

[TECTopcat]

yes , his tweets and arguing with reporters put off them offsuburban women, especially single women,

my question is : what is the impact of most colleges being online-do college students (+Biden voters) who usually vote at campus now NOT vote or?

[TheRef]

He needs to win FL and PA, not even AZ, MN, WI or MI. If he wins the House that could be enough if he gets all 5 Nebraska votes and 1 from Maine. If he doesn’t win the House, he needs he needs one of either NV, AZ, MI, WI, MN or NH.

[Mozzafiato]

Not after they have seen the pics of war torn Kenosha, Wisconsin and Minneapolis, Minnesota.

White suburban women are watching The View or CNN, so they're largely unaware that riots are taking place.

[4Liberty]

[preacher]

l8r

[TheRef]

I hear you. I think Trump wins in the end. I’m just trying to make sense of the polls as they come out. I try to look at all the poll internals and identify the mistaken and/or biased assumptions of the pollsters and adjust them to make some sense out of them. Take the Fox News poll that came out over the weekend showing Biden up 9 in Arizona for instance. A ridiculous poll result from my perspective. Here’s my explanation:

Fox News assumed a voter turnout of D+3, or 46D/11I/43R. The 2016 exit polls showed it was R+4, a seven-point swing. Pollsters, including Fox, are assuming massive Democratic turnout.

The D+3 sample badly oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to R+4, or 42D/11I/46R. According to the poll data, Biden won D’s 92-3, I’s 29-19 and Trump won R’s 85-8. Applying these voter ratios to the much more likely 42D/11I/46R voter turnout, Biden receives 45.5 to Trump 42.5.

I think their likely voter screen is also letting a lot people in who won’t vote, which bumps Biden’s number up, but that’s hard to correct for. I put the number they report in a pollster average and the number I came to in my average, and go with that.

I’m doing this with every poll that comes out. I figure if these polls go unchallenged and unexplained, that’s going to lead some astray. As for Trump not being behind, I don’t view this map as him being behind. The Democrats have a few states that give them a lot of electoral votes. Any Democrat starts with 199 electoral votes, maybe even 212 with the way Northern Virginia has taken over the state.

[TheRef]

Your tagline, hilarious. Throughout undergrad and law school I had only two professors that I knew were conservative, an Econ professor and a Wills and Trusts professor. I’m sure there were plenty more, but they probably felt they had to keep it hush hush. Tragic. Also, that poor abused dog. ;-)

[TheRef]

Thanks

[TheRef]

I agree with you about Georgia. Also, Trump has hidden strength in Florida and Pennsylvania, a fact revealed by the Knight Foundation 100 Million Project Well worth the read. https://knightfoundation.org/reports/the-100-million-project/

[pghbjugop]

No,No and No, Obviously all R have to win Fl, He only needs ONE of MI, Wi or PA. The other 2 were surplus, He went over by 36 EV. Why do people insist on stating stuff that just isn’t true. Take a few minutes to learn instead of spouting off what other idiots who don’t take the time to learn. If he wins MN, he doesn’t need WI, MI or PA. Actually with the 3, WI, MI and PA he didn’t even need FL last time.

[nwrep]

I understand that very well. My previous statement was meant to say the same thing, FL and one of MI/WI/PA.

[TheConservativeTejano]

Partner, we know already know that they see CNN and the "View".

We have never seen the outright burning of Cities, the looting that is going around and the murdering of folks right before a presidential election.

If Suburban women keep their heads in the sand then it is their fault.

Everywhere we turn the cities in this country are seeing violence, rioting, and looting to the nth degree and Police Department budgets being eliminated.

Already Police Chiefs are quitting from Major Cities.

We already know that the morals and values of our graduating classes have been fed a lot of liberalism in their classes in college.

We are seeing an unpredented migration of folks from Northern states to the South or West. Why because Taxes are way too high and folks are not getting the services for the tax money they are paying to the states and cities.