Posted on 09/07/2020 1:22:14 PM PDT by TheRef
My poll averages show the race has closed to within 17 electoral votes. Click the links to the right to see the polls and the map to see the electoral college. Likely voters in blue wall and red base states are coming back to Trump. Biden is acting like a candidate in trouble because he is. Blue state changes: WI, MN, MI; red ones: IA, GA, OH.
Despite national and some battleground polls showing Biden with a high single digit lead, the voter turnout assumptions undergirding those leads are not only wrong but laughably so.
Most polls reflecting such leads are assuming 100% turnout, yes, that is a 100% you just read. That is what a registered voter poll is, an assumption that every registered voter will turn out, and six of the seven national polls to come out the past few days are registered voter polls. Registered voter polls almost always pad the Democrat's lead. More on that below.
One so-called likely voter poll assumes 98% of registered voters will turn out and vote. Because about 20% of Americans are not registered to vote and about 80% are, this poll assumes almost an 80% turnout of the adult population. That hasn't happened since the US Civil War. Registered voter polls assume the same thing.
We usually get about 65-70% of registered voters and about 55% of the total eligible population. Obama only managed to squeeze out one election with a D+7 turnout and he brought just about every possible Democratic vote out.
In the last nine elections, Democrats have averaged a 3.5% advantage over Republicans and that includes Obama's D+6 and D+7 years which bumped up the average. Numerous factors indicate that turnout will be down. This year new registrations for Democrats are way down from normal.
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Polls are for sheep.
Biden doesn’t have a chance in Georgia so you can move that one from the list of him even being close. I’ve heard people who sat out the 2016 race say they are definitely voting for Trump this time around. Plus, look at the numbers from the boat parade at Lake Lanier over the weekend. That is a lot of Trump voters and some are probably former Democrats. Trump signs, Police support signs, and American flags are also everywhere. Biden signs are sporadic.
Biden is bleading black voters. Has been all election.
More than tightened.
I only see a couple of toss up states:
WI, MI, and the 2nd districts in NE and ME. That’s it.
Trump start the night with 267 and Hiden Biden at 243 with Biden only picking up AZ from Hillary’s 2016 map.
People need to just stop.
Trump is not and has never been behind.
They are including the voter fraud mail in ballots.
I think Trump gets the 2 electoral votes from NE and ME. That’s 269, which puts it in the house if Biden carries AZ, WI and MI. I still think AZ is more likely to go Trump the further we get away from the spike in Covid there.
I’d like to see more polling from Nevada also, Trump “might” have an outside chance of picking that off
I told my husband weeks ago that President Trump would win re-election in a landslide. I stand by that.
Can't see the turnout be similar to what we saw in 2016.
Let us know what happens on November 5th. The polls might be more accurate. (although the democrats plan on changing the votes for at least two weeks before it gives them the results they crave.)
Yes but Trump is losing white suburban women.
Good analysis but the overall point you are making is not that different from what the FiveThirtyEight guys are making - that all the battlegrounds (with the exception of Minnesota) are where Trump won in 2016. So the battle is on Trump’s turf, and he needs to win MI/WI/FL/PA to win again.
“Electoral College has tightened despite media narrative that Biden is up”
The Electoral College has voted ALREADY! /s
One recent poll there shows a 44-39 lead for Biden. Independents split evenly and they are performing almost evenly with their parties. D’s have a registration advantage of about
Poll - https://www.busr.ag/polls
Nevada Registration - Dems have a 4.5% registration advantage, so it comes down to turnout. Trump could do it.
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