[poconopundit]

FRiends. For your analytical enjoyment. I revisited the investigation I did of Lichtman's election model back in 2016.

Lichtman is really trying to pull the wool over everybody's eyes this year. See my interpretation.

Curious if you agree/disagree with my thinking or have other points to make.

By the way, Charlie Kirk has produced his own prediction -- a very different, common sense model -- and it's a really solid piece of analysis explained in a podcast:

10 Indicators That Trump Will Win In November

Check it out!

[tinyowl]

I totally agree with you on all points.

The question, of course, as you mentioned, is how blind or duped are our fellow Americans. In some ways, that's ALL this election is about because if you remove the lies and hoaxes and Karen-ish emotional reaction to Trump ... he's a shoe in, and even if you personally don't like him ... are you (royal you) REALLY willing to put your financial security in Biden's hands?

I think the shy/secret voter puts Trump in easily, and/but then of course the dems have their post election mail in prosthetic vote program.

What a year!

[j.havenfarm]

The facts of this year are so singular I wouldn’t trust any models constructed on these lines

[Spirit of Liberty]

“In the face of all this, Lichtman, incredibly, is saying Trump is not charismatic because he believes half the country doesn’t like him. So I guess nobody can measure up to Lichtman’s standard of charisma.”

But this guy accurately predicted Obama’s election in 2008 and 2012? I can GUARANTEE half the country didn’t like him! I guess the difference is Obama didn’t believe it?

[genghis]

Hood job

[Verginius Rufus]

Lichtman’s hatred of President Trump is pathological. Very early in the Trump administration he published a book calling for Trump’s impeachment.

[Yardstick]

I can kind of see why he gamed his model this time. It's because the media (and the Democrats, and the left in general) are totally off the rails this time, distorting everything Trump does. Essentially he's trying to factor in the unprecedented media bias and dishonesty without saying (or maybe realizing) that's what he's doing.

Consider the question of whether the administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. This time around what he's really asking is does the public perceive the administration to have major success. He didn't need to add this unspoken qualifier before, but he does now, because thanks to the media there's such a gaping disconnect between actual reality and the reality being presented to the public--and unfortunately absorbed to a significant degree--that it has to be accounted for.

So IMO what the gamed model is really saying it is this: in normal times the reelection of Donald Trump would be a slam dunk, but these are not normal times...

[USS Alaska]

Now below I inserted my own answers and analysis based on Lichtman's model and I came up with a strong Trump victory using the exact same Key Questions. So I leave it to you, dear FReepers, to compare the two interpretations and see which you believe.

You are 100% correct. Lichtmann sold out for

And then he hanged himself.