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I can kind of see why he gamed his model this time. It's because the media (and the Democrats, and the left in general) are totally off the rails this time, distorting everything Trump does. Essentially he's trying to factor in the unprecedented media bias and dishonesty without saying (or maybe realizing) that's what he's doing.

Consider the question of whether the administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. This time around what he's really asking is does the public perceive the administration to have major success. He didn't need to add this unspoken qualifier before, but he does now, because thanks to the media there's such a gaping disconnect between actual reality and the reality being presented to the public--and unfortunately absorbed to a significant degree--that it has to be accounted for.

So IMO what the gamed model is really saying it is this: in normal times the reelection of Donald Trump would be a slam dunk, but these are not normal times...

I like the precision of your analytical ruler, Yarkstick :-)

Maybe the New York Times has been so busy manufacturing lies in the last twenty years -- against Reagan and the Bushes - they never notices they were doing anything outrageoius. The hatred for a free republic is inbred.

The difference is that Trump is very clear about wanting to destroy the corrupt press and permanent State.

Winston Churchill made a comment that maybe parallels the fears at the Fake News today:

"In wartime, the Truth is so precious, she must be protected with a Bodyguard of Lies."