Posted on 03/27/2020 6:10:36 AM PDT by NOBO2012
No, I’m not talking about Melania; due to the ongoing Covid 19 crisis, FLOTUS Friday, like much of America, has been suspended until further notice and the country remains on lockdown.
For what it’s worth this is my take so far:
It would seem that the models used to forecast the run of the Wuhan virus run are faulty.
The forecast used to predict 2.2 million U.S. deaths and 510,00 deaths in Great Britain was produced by Imperial College in London. It is “the epidemiological modeling which has informed policymaking in the United Kingdom and other countries in recent weeks.”
OK, but is the information reliable? Epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta is doubtful.
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” he said in the Financial Times.
Gupta’s team of researchers at Oxford believe both the hospitalization and mortality rates are much lower than the worst estimates, and immunity is more widespread than previously thought.
“Some say” the models are not just wrong but wrong by an order of magnitude.
The Wall Street Journal has published an op-ed from professors of medicine at Stanford who said “projections of the death toll” reaching 2 million to 4 million “could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.” They believe “epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for” a number of important factors.
Why ever does this not surprise us? Perhaps because we have already seen faulty models used to whip up panic and manipulate the world to bend to the “science” of fake modeling promoted by our betters. Where else have we heard that we must “bend the curve”?
If I’m feeling kind I might excuse our betters for inciting such panic. They fear that the highly contagious virus without a massive shutdown will result in so many critical cases at once that it would overwhelm our hospitals and medical personnel. That certainly is true in some countries. But in America we have ships standing at the ready to serve as floating hospitals, and auto manufacturers that know how to makeshift production facilities on a dime to produce more respirators. We’re kind of unique that way.
At this point history alone will prove which course is best – duck and cover or come out and fight.
Meanwhile we remain on lockdown here in Park City after our unelected health director issued a “stay at home” diktat. He deemed that “grocery stores, banks, hardware stores, post offices, essential transportation services, senior care facilities, farming operations and media outlets. Restaurants that have transitioned to providing curbside and delivery service in compliance with a previous order may also remain open.” Plus the state has directed that state owned liquor stores will remain open.
That is pretty much the way things have been here since March 15th so the big announcement is more hoopla than news. Essentially this means that aside from formalizing what’s already taken place the diktat forces the closure of one jewelry store on Main Street along with a couple of galleries trying to hang on by the skin of their teeth.
That will show them who’s in charge around here.
The jury is still out on the status of our local gun range,
As licensed concealed weapons carriers, we consider firearms training/practice to be essential, although we’re not sure our betters would agree.
We don’t want a bunch of untrained cowboys running around packin’ now do we? Just because somebody’s model was wrong.
Posted from: MOTUS A.D.
Duck and cover. You don’t want to ever make the mistake of reacting to an invitation to go out and fight someone you know nothing about.
Yeah, you’re likely gonna lose everyone right at the dopey Melania “joke”.
As the male of the species, I can say with absolute certainty that your model at the gun range is not wrong.
Dr Birx said at the presser yesterday that the UK model was revised down to 20k dead in the UK. That is a factor of 25!!
Texas shut down two counties this week using this site; covidactnow.org Look at it, it is obviously wildly inflated. I saw the official tweet that quoted it. I wonder how many other shutdown orders were based on it. And here’s the killer, that covidactnow model was put together by a bunch of democrats and Hillary supporters!!
Here’s an excellent tweet thread about it; https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242546062444957703?s=20
Some of us have an attention span longer than 1.5 seconds.
Why the unnecessary shot at FLOTUS in the very first sentence? Makes me want to disregard the entire article.
To quote the famous American statistician George E. P Box “All models are wrong, but some are useful!”
Yes, they’re often referred to as “sheeple”, easily lead, since they lack critical thinking skills. Persuasive writers should know their target readers.
While working on my doctorate I became very interested in mathematical modeling and took several courses in the field. At the time, I even sort of believed they would become a tool to predict the future and wrote several involving temperature effect on uptake of radioisotopes by aquatic plants in microcosms. I came to the conclusion that they were interesting only in simulating what had occurred, not what would occur. I translated the Club of Rome’s DYNAMO model into simple BASIC and was appalled at how simpleminded it was.
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