Dr Birx said at the presser yesterday that the UK model was revised down to 20k dead in the UK. That is a factor of 25!!
Texas shut down two counties this week using this site; covidactnow.org Look at it, it is obviously wildly inflated. I saw the official tweet that quoted it. I wonder how many other shutdown orders were based on it. And here’s the killer, that covidactnow model was put together by a bunch of democrats and Hillary supporters!!
Here’s an excellent tweet thread about it; https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242546062444957703?s=20
It's not just the models being used. It is also the data being focused on. Americans tend to be overstuffed with vitamins (among other things) and this map shows we have a higher blood level of vitamin D than a lot of countries. Among the lowest were:
Italy
Spain
China
Iran
USSR
Among the highest:
Vietnam
Thailand
(and maybe Taiwan- the map isn't clear)
INTERACTIVE MAPS ON VITAMIN D LEVEL WORLDWIDE
Multiple studies on NIH show a correlation between low Vitamin D levels and influenza.
There is an article on NIH by a Canadian physician (Dr. Gerry Schwalfenberg) who works in nursing homes. He has developed a protocol for reducing flu like illness among his patients. This should be tried against the corona virus in US hospitals:
"A colleague of mine and I have introduced vitamin D at doses that have achieved greater than 100 nmol/L in most of our patients for the past number of years, and we now see very few patients in our clinics with the flu or influenzalike illness. In those patients who do have influenza, we have treated them with the vitamin D hammer, as coined by my colleague. This is a 1-time 50 000 IU dose of vitamin D3 or 10 000 IU 3 times daily for 2 to 3 days. The results are dramatic, with complete resolution of symptoms in 48 to 72 hours. One-time doses of vitamin D at this level have been used safely and have never been shown to be toxic. We urgently need a study of this intervention. The cost of vitamin D is about a penny for 1000 IU, so this treatment costs less than a dollar."
Vitamin D for influenza
There is a presentation by Dr. Robert P Heaney on the healthful effects of adequate vitamin D levels:
Vitamin D Sunshine Optimal Health: Putting it all Together
There is an article by Beata M. Gruber-Bzura on NIH that describes the mechanisms by which vitamin D works with the immune system:
"There are a few arguments which support vitamin D as a likely candidate for the abovementioned “seasonal stimulus”. In summary, most important is the 1α,25(OH)2D-stimulated production of AMPs, such as defensin and cathelicidin. As mentioned, these endogenous antibiotics act directly, destroying not only microbial pathogens, but also viruses, including the influenza virus [24,48,49]. The production of cathelicidin is dose-dependent on the serum level of 1α,25(OH)2D."
Vitamin D and Influenza—Prevention or Therapy?
It has been suggested that a way out of the current "frozen" situation would be controlled exposure of young, healthy volunteers to the virus in order to build up a cadre of people capable of safely going back to work. Such volunteers should be given the option of prepping with Vitamin D beforehand. Any serological testing for the corona virus should include a test of vitamin D level.
While working on my doctorate I became very interested in mathematical modeling and took several courses in the field. At the time, I even sort of believed they would become a tool to predict the future and wrote several involving temperature effect on uptake of radioisotopes by aquatic plants in microcosms. I came to the conclusion that they were interesting only in simulating what had occurred, not what would occur. I translated the Club of Rome’s DYNAMO model into simple BASIC and was appalled at how simpleminded it was.