Threat Matrix 2020

Morning

Iran-
Relatively quiet. The ayatollah’s speech yesterday definitely appears to try to patch up relations between the ruling mullah and IGRC.

Israel -
IED balloon attacks appear to have tapered off. Friday is a typical day of protesting and ied balloons are more common then.

N Korea -
An economic outlook for nw is slight improvement from’19 but not by much. Sanctions still will keep a lot of what Kim does on a short leash.

North Korea’n envoys reportedly met with Chinease and the United Nations diplomats. Sources to Yonhap say this trip was “abrupt” but no info on context.

CW2 Richmond VA
In a strange turn of events I noted yesterday, Antifa is announcing they will march along side 2d amendment supporters on the right. In an interview to “Vice” a spokesman stated “I think it’s been pretty important for us to focus on the fact that gun control in America has a legacy of racist enforcement,” an Antifa Seven Hills spokesperson called James, a self-identified anarchist who withheld his real name for fear of getting doxxed, told Vice. “Like taking guns away from black people, because black people were perceived as a threat to property and the sanctity of the state.” Virginians should be careful of the scorpion and the frog tale.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has not only issued temporary flight restrictions for Richmond, Virginia for Monday, but has designated the airspaces are “National Defense Airspace” until after Lobby Day. This includes drones. In related it has been reported that a USAF U-28A aircraft Has been circling the Capitol.

Many believe that a false flag will be initiated to discredit 2d amendment supporters in the state (and country). The governor makes repeated references to Charlottesville protests and accuses 2d amendment supporters of being racists among other insults.

I can’t say one way or another what will happen. Passions are high on all sides and it may not take much to trigger an incident.

Morning, Middle East dominates again.

Israel-
Overnight more IED balloons being launched. Faction in Gaza reportedly state they will act in unison to respond to any Israeli attack (presumably in response to ied balloons). Analysis of balloons indicate they have morphed from flying Molotov cocktails to more advanced explosives.

Iran -
Indicators of more antigovernment protests but few details.

Iraq -
Clashes between security forces and demonstrators in Tayran square, Baghdad. Protests continue to focus on corruption of Iraqi govt by Iran and its supported militias and politicians

Lebanon -
Saturday protests against govt corruption and associated Hezbollah (Iran) influence intensified. Protests started last October when Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned and Hezbollah started trying to put more favorable politicians in place. Govt corruption has caused a huge economic crisis as well. With no one in charge and nothing being done the population keeps getting worse off.

N Korea-

Ri Son Gwon has replaced Ri Yong Ho. Ri Son Gwon will be the new North Korean foreign minister. He is reported to have a fiery temper. Be interesting to see how long he lasts. Also a reputed hardliners.

CW2 -
VCDL calling for 10,000 volunteers to enter the “gun free zone” at the Capitol Monday to potentially “take one for the teams”. If turnout is the 50k+ expected they want armed Virginians surrounding the ‘cage’.

Wild cards are the Antifa affiliated gun groups and out of stare VCDL groups.

Natural disasters -
Taal volcano appears to be building to a major eruption- potentially of the scale of Pinetubo or larger. No direct threat to the US however an eruption of that magnitude is likely to generate significant global cooling. Combined with a Maunder Minimum sunspot cycle impacts to agriculture over the next few years could be significant.

China -
News of a new SARS virus spreading in China is gaining concern. China has been tight on information. This is of concern since the 2002 and 2003, SARS infected more than 8,000 people worldwide, and more than 700 of them ended up dying. This outbreak is still very new, they have never seen this virus before, and they are still trying to figure out exactly how dangerous it is. Concern has increased at US airports with screening of Chinese passengers given two events - one in japan and a second in Thailand where Chinese passengers came down with the virus.

Afternoon

Iraq -
Violent protests in Baghdad over night there. Security forces fired on protestors using live rounds.

Europe -
Over the past few hours US and German officials responded to intelligence indicating an imminent attack. After investigation no threat was identified.

US -
Rumors of a Islamic illegals planning on bringing explosives into the US and conducting an attack. Sources are sketchy at best, but there are reports of jihadists making contacts and associates with Mexican narco-terrorist gangs.

CW2 / Virginia-
Probably one of the most closely watched events in decades. Here’s what the action currently is

Thousands have willingly entered the cage. Tens of thousands more - many well armed - surround it. No reported incidents during the build up. Twitter posting photos of county sheriffs supporting the marchers.

Antifa presence appears to be minimal at the moment. One major Antifa group backtracked an earlier statement that they would march to protect their gun rights too saying they would not march with nazis. Lots of rumors of a hit list of visible conservative / right individuals and rally speakers.

My primary concern for the outbreak of violence is AFTER the rally. Antifa has historically launched violent attacks as people return to their transportation and leave. That movement gives them an opportunity to isolate smaller groups that they can overwhelm by numbers. I urge freezers to be cautious on reports as there is still a lot of propaganda and misinformation and rumors out there.

China / SARS
China announcing virus spread to numerous cities. They report cases in the low hundreds. Medical community outside China believes they are under reporting and real numbers in the thousands. China also reported human to human transmission of the virus. Virus has now been encountered in S Korea.

Leaked map shows China plans to invade S. Taiwan after taking Kinmen, Penghu

Taiwan News ^ | 20JAN2020 | Keoni Everington,

Posted on 1/20/2020, 2:56:32 PM by AdmSmith

A photo surfaced Sunday (Jan. 19) on Weibo showing People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers sitting next to a map of Taiwan that appears to indicate a southerly route for China's invasion of Taiwan, first going through Kinmen and Penghu, before landing troops in southern Taiwan.

After President Tsai Ing-wen enjoyed a landslide victory in Taiwan's elections on Jan. 11, Communist China has been doubling down on its rhetoric about the tattered "one country, two systems" framework and adhering to the "1992 Consensus" — expressing its opposition to "Taiwan independence" despite the fact that Taiwan has never been a part of Communist China.

In a joint statement issued with Myanmar on Saturday (Jan. 18), China reaffirmed the "one-China" principle and categorized "Taiwan as an inalienable part of the People's Republic of China's territory."

In a statement on Sunday (Jan. 19), Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Joanne Ou responded by saying: "The ministry condemns such false statements that diminish the sovereignty of the Republic of China."

Ou added: "Taiwan is not part of China, and only the Taiwanese government elected by its people can represent Taiwan in the international arena."

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3809633/posts

(Several years ago, I visited Taiwan and met a lot of lovely people who appreciate the USA.)

CW2 / Virginia
Observations and wrap up.
Despite the leftist media hype that this was some sort of a white nationalist protest like Charlottesville, the march ended with no arrests or incidents of violence. Media claims attendance of 22k, but apparently failed to add in the crowds way up the streets leading in.

What is remarkable is the absence of an organized Antifa response. I suspect this could be due to the following factors
1. Cold weather. Only one potential ‘plant’ widely reported from social media.
2. Insufficient armed Antifa available.
3. Numerical advantage of the pro 2d crowd. Antifa thrives on where they can gain a numerical superiority over targets and prefers those targets to be unarmed / unable to resist.

The left lost this engagement. No violent act to try to use to push their agenda and tens of thousands of 2d supporters who refused to back down, even in the face of potential kinetic violence.

Iraq -
Antigovernment protests have ramped way up overnight in Baghdad. Plus 3 rockets have so far been fired into the green zone No injuries reported.

SARS -
Increased global concern about the spread of this virus. China being forced to reveal more information.

Overnight stuff

SARS -
Wuhan coronavirus is reportedly spread to many other countries now, including the US (Everette Washington). Chinese officials have said the virus is mutating and becoming more human transmissible. There are many articles on the interwebs but I’d like to make a few points.

How serious of a threat is this? Based upon REPORTED cases and deaths, there appears to be about a 2-3% mortality rate. The last major outbreak had a mortality rate of nearly 30%. As with other SARS/coronaviruses, they attack the respiratory systems, thus the old and those with weakened immune systems are at the highest risk. Further mutations could increase the mortality rates.
Originally thought to be transmitted from animals to humans, the mutation of the virus to human-human transmission is significant. Generally the virus is contained in mucus from sinuses or saliva that are spewed into the air from coughing /sneezing. As with most viruses, through hand cleaning and sanitation practices are among the best defense. As China is forced to open up information to the medical community in general, better knowledge of transmission and lethality will be better know.

N Korea
New minister of defense appointed. NK projecting an attitude that it will resume nuclear and ballistic missile testing as they wish

Israel/Gaza
Hamas states that the current round of IED balloon attacks being conducted by independent elements, but that if Israel drags its feet in negotiations with Hamas, they will take a more active role.

Libya
More fighting around / in Tripoli as cease fire efforts fail. Many see Turkish intervention a step in their trying to reestablish the califate in the region.

SARS -
China has banned all Lunar New Years celebrations. Initial quarantine of Wuhan now expanded to Huanggang, Zhijiang, Qianjiang, Chibi, Ziantao and Ezhou (approximately 20,000,000 people). Virus spreading globally with confirmed cases now in Taiwan, Hong Kong (setting up quarantine camps), Thailand, S Korea, Japan, US, Singapore, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia. Others being tested in Canada, Mexico and Scotland. The increasingly severe efforts China is placing to stop the spread of the virus may indicate that the virus is more easily spread than is currently being reported.

Food shortages being reported in Wuhan as well as several Wuhan hospitals calling for public donations of masks, scrubs, protective gear, etc. Hospitals also reported to be at maximum capacity due to suspected virus patients. Not a good thing and indicative of the situation in that town becoming more intense and desperate.

A February 2017 Nature article is being circulated indicating that a BSL-4 dangerous pathogen lab was being established in Wuhan. At that time it was reported to be “on the cusp” of being certified. It would be difficult to specifically finger such a facility as the source, since SARS related viruses don’t require a BSL-4 facility to study. Chinese officials are still stating that the initial infections are due to consumption of bats. Coronaviruses are common in animals particularly bats.

Still poor information on mortality rates. Last I saw was about 2%. For reference the Spanish flu mortality rate approximately 10-20%. That was also in an era of substantially poor medical care. Even at a 2% rate, if 100 million get infected, that comes to 2 million deaths.

Finally, beware of a video showing an individual face down in blood on a sidewalk and a Chinese ambulance with biosuited medics. It is reportedly a scene from the Contagion movie and not real life.

Iraq -
Yesterday a gunman shot and killed a commander of the hardline Basij milita - an Iranian supported group nefariously known for brutal attacks on anti-govt protestors. The commander, Abdolhossein Mojaddami was a close ally of Soleimani.

Pro-iranian elements are announcing a million man march to expel US forces from Iraq.

Israel
On alert due to 75th remembrance of the Holocaust. Substantial numbers of diplomates and world leaders present.

Quick notes

SARS -

Please note!!! There is a lot of doom porn, rampant speculation, mis information and flat out fake reports out there. Please remember not to trust everything you read on the internet. With all this junk cluttering up the web it is hard to get a grasp on just what is really happening and the threat it poses. Quick review of what we know

1. China has instituted massive quarantines throughout the country affecting upwards of 60 million. Health services are overwhelmed and military being deployed to assist overwhelmed hospitals.
2. China is holding back critical information (IMHO) to lessen the extent of the infection.
3. Scientists indicate (based on data released) that the Ro (spreading rate) is between 2 - 4. Meaning each infected person infects 2-4 others.
4. Incubation period of 10-14 days. Can spread virus well before symptions are evident.
5. Mortality rate estimated 2-4% range. These numbers can potentially increase if China is suppressing real values.
6. Besides China, infections now throughout numerous nations.
7. Those at most risk are elderly (pneumonia) as well as those with weakened immune systems.

Basic precautions necessary. Hand washing, don’t touch eyes/nose. Avoid crowded areas. Stock up on over the counter flu related supplies (treating symptoms). Obtain some protective N95 masks and nitrile gloves. Store up some water (with back up purification methods) food and extra vitamin c.

Iraq -
Anti us protestors were in the street yesterday demanding US removal. These are pro-Iranian militia members and supporters. Same militias attacked an antigovernment protest in Baghdad killing and wounding many.

Israel/Gaza.
With reports that hamas was going to stop the IED balloon attacks, more were launched overnight. Israel has withheld response probably to give Hamas room to deal with it themselves first.

Taal -
Volcanologists report increased inflation and magma movement. Only minor steam blasts since its initial eruption. Everything still points to a potential major eruption in the near future.

SARS -
Time will tell. One noted modeler indicates that by the end of next week there will be 250k infections through China. Numbers I’ve seen still has a mortality rate of about 3-4 percent. Many nations organizing evacuations of citizens from quarantined cities.

Israel/Gaza.
Israel struck several Hamas bases tonight in response to continued ied balloons

Iraq -
In Iraq, celebration’s tonight take place in Tahrir Square, Baghdad due to the withdrawl of Muqtada al-Sadr backed militants from the protest areas. However, Al-Sadr has said that he is “disappointed” in the people participating in these protests earlier today. Earlier these Iranian supported militias fired into the anti government protesters.

SARS -
Still no clarity on actual numbers infected and dead. Everyone posting different numbers. Still consistent though -
1. Ro is still very high at 2-4.
2. Best guess mortality rate 2-3%.
3. 10-15 day incubation but spreadable after as few as 5 days after infection.
4. WHO still hasn’t called for a global response.

Israel/Gaza.
Rumors of potential Israeli buildup to counter any Hamas or PIJ response to the Trump peace plan. Relatively quiet following Israeli air strike response to ied balloons

Iraq
Considerable violence between anti govt protesters and Iranian backed militias overnight.
4-5 rockets targeted the green zone overnight. No reported injuries.

Candor7 wrote:

BIO WAR would suit Xi just fine. It looks accidental, innocuous, a perfect weapon .....

************************************

“George Soros owns WuXi Pharma Biotech, located at 666 Gaoxin Road East Lake High-tech Development Zone Wuhan 430075, China.

http://tinfoilcowboyhat.com/soroscos.htm

https://www.wuxiapptec.com/about/location

From:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3810647/posts?page=711#711

SARS -
Disturbing news coming from the medical journal “The Lancet”, one of the first non-internet doom porn reports I’ve read. Basically the report states (based upon Chinease portion of the outbreak) that the transmission rate is as high as a whopping 83%! On top of that, the mortality rate is 15% (initial estimates had it at 2-3%)! If Chinease authorities were aware of these numbers, then perhaps their response to locking down over 63 million into quarenteen makes sense. Here is the link to the article for your reading.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

We still need better information from outside of China due to state censorship. Stock markets in Asia suffering severe losses due to panic associated with the outbreak. US markets expected to follow. Confirmed cases continue to be reported around the globe with 5 currently in the US alone.

Iraq -
More rockets hit the US embassy in Bagdad overnight with a few minor injuries reported.

Israel / US Peace Plan
PM Netanyahu and Blue & White chairman Gantz arrived in Washington Sunday for meetings with President Trump and the release of the plan for Mideast peace. Part of the plan reportedly is that Israel will retain overall security control of the entire West Bank even if a Palestian state is established in parts of it. In response, PA leader Abbas is calling for a ‘day of rage’ the day the release of the plan. NOTE: Abbas and the PA (West bank) have been very quiet in not militarily/violently challenging Israel. Threats include renouncing all signed agreements and hault security coordination with Israel.

Gaza and Hamas/PIJ on the otherhand have been attacking Israel almost daily. Information indicates that Iran may be pushing PIJ to challenge any plan with attacks. Hamas will likely be drawn into any conflict as Israel will continue to hold them responsible for any attacks (as the defacto leadership of Gaza). However, various Israeli sources indiate that the plan makes no mention of the Gaza strip. Yet because the plan also deals with control of Jerusalem, any Israeli control is automatically rejected by Hama/PIJ even if they are not covered in the plan.

Jordan is reported to be tenatively accepting of the deal, but I am not sure how they will like Israeli plans on annexing parts of the Jordan valley origionally under the control of Jordan.

CW2 -
Impeachment “trial” continues today with presentations and rebuttals by the President’s legal council. The big question is what will the senate do when that is finished?

SARS -
Overnight the reported number of infections in China increased by about 40%. From about 12 hours ago China reported 4515 confirmed cases and 106 deaths (2.3% mortality rate) . Observers are concerned this is just the tip of the iceberg. Reuters is reporting that “Researchers at Lancaster University estimate that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan have been identified. By Jan. 21, they estimated a total of 11,341 people had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. More than 30,000 people in Wuhan are under observation, according to the city’s health authorities.” More countries around the world reporting infections and more are issuing travel restrictions to china. Getting accurate reports and numbers still a challenge.

On an economic scale, the quarantine in China combined with the associated panic of surrounding nations has really slammed things. Besides medical supplies like protective N95 masks, food and other medicines are becoming scarce and / or expensive.
Watching - medical warnings that china reported infections will reach 250,000 by next week. If this happens, then a lot of concerns about its spread may be justified.

Iran -
OSINT from commercial satellite imagery suggest that Iran is preparing for a satellite launch. Such a launch would defy a UN Security council resolution, but there is no teeth to that resolution other than sanctions by individual nations. Launch may correspond to the marking of the 41st anniversary of the 1979 Islamic takeover of Iran.

Lebanon-
Hezbollah and allies are consolidating their capture of the Lebanese government. Christian and Druze parties left out of the picture. This may not solve the severe economic woes of the country and may further increase tensions between Shia Hezbollah and opposing factions.

Israel / US Peace Plan
Netanyahu and Gantz meet with President Trump separately yesterday to be briefed on the US peace plan. Muslims in Gaza and the West Bank are gearing up to protest the plan. The temple mount is one sore area that may explode in violence. Hamas has called for Muslims around the world to come to their aid. There are reports that representatives of Hamas, PIJ and Fatah (PA) will meet in Ramallah to discuss the plan and coordinate responses. I have not seen any public responses from Hezbollah in regards to the peace plan, but anticipate that they could respond in support to any associated rioting against Israel.

Israel is reported to be reinforcing checkpoint security and deploying ground units for rapid response if necessary.

N Korea -
Not to be missed by the other news, OSINT and US officials note unusual vehicle activity as the Sanumdong plant that builds NK ICBM/SLVs. The report activity consistent with what has been seen prior to other missile tests.

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