SARS -
Disturbing news coming from the medical journal “The Lancet”, one of the first non-internet doom porn reports I’ve read. Basically the report states (based upon Chinease portion of the outbreak) that the transmission rate is as high as a whopping 83%! On top of that, the mortality rate is 15% (initial estimates had it at 2-3%)! If Chinease authorities were aware of these numbers, then perhaps their response to locking down over 63 million into quarenteen makes sense. Here is the link to the article for your reading.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
We still need better information from outside of China due to state censorship. Stock markets in Asia suffering severe losses due to panic associated with the outbreak. US markets expected to follow. Confirmed cases continue to be reported around the globe with 5 currently in the US alone.
Iraq -
More rockets hit the US embassy in Bagdad overnight with a few minor injuries reported.
Israel / US Peace Plan
PM Netanyahu and Blue & White chairman Gantz arrived in Washington Sunday for meetings with President Trump and the release of the plan for Mideast peace. Part of the plan reportedly is that Israel will retain overall security control of the entire West Bank even if a Palestian state is established in parts of it. In response, PA leader Abbas is calling for a ‘day of rage’ the day the release of the plan. NOTE: Abbas and the PA (West bank) have been very quiet in not militarily/violently challenging Israel. Threats include renouncing all signed agreements and hault security coordination with Israel.
Gaza and Hamas/PIJ on the otherhand have been attacking Israel almost daily. Information indicates that Iran may be pushing PIJ to challenge any plan with attacks. Hamas will likely be drawn into any conflict as Israel will continue to hold them responsible for any attacks (as the defacto leadership of Gaza). However, various Israeli sources indiate that the plan makes no mention of the Gaza strip. Yet because the plan also deals with control of Jerusalem, any Israeli control is automatically rejected by Hama/PIJ even if they are not covered in the plan.
Jordan is reported to be tenatively accepting of the deal, but I am not sure how they will like Israeli plans on annexing parts of the Jordan valley origionally under the control of Jordan.
CW2 -
Impeachment “trial” continues today with presentations and rebuttals by the President’s legal council. The big question is what will the senate do when that is finished?
I hope the Lancet article is wrong.
But it does look like a legit. med. site.
SARS -
Overnight the reported number of infections in China increased by about 40%. From about 12 hours ago China reported 4515 confirmed cases and 106 deaths (2.3% mortality rate) . Observers are concerned this is just the tip of the iceberg. Reuters is reporting that “Researchers at Lancaster University estimate that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan have been identified. By Jan. 21, they estimated a total of 11,341 people had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. More than 30,000 people in Wuhan are under observation, according to the city’s health authorities.” More countries around the world reporting infections and more are issuing travel restrictions to china. Getting accurate reports and numbers still a challenge.
On an economic scale, the quarantine in China combined with the associated panic of surrounding nations has really slammed things. Besides medical supplies like protective N95 masks, food and other medicines are becoming scarce and / or expensive.
Watching - medical warnings that china reported infections will reach 250,000 by next week. If this happens, then a lot of concerns about its spread may be justified.
Iran -
OSINT from commercial satellite imagery suggest that Iran is preparing for a satellite launch. Such a launch would defy a UN Security council resolution, but there is no teeth to that resolution other than sanctions by individual nations. Launch may correspond to the marking of the 41st anniversary of the 1979 Islamic takeover of Iran.
Lebanon-
Hezbollah and allies are consolidating their capture of the Lebanese government. Christian and Druze parties left out of the picture. This may not solve the severe economic woes of the country and may further increase tensions between Shia Hezbollah and opposing factions.
Israel / US Peace Plan
Netanyahu and Gantz meet with President Trump separately yesterday to be briefed on the US peace plan. Muslims in Gaza and the West Bank are gearing up to protest the plan. The temple mount is one sore area that may explode in violence. Hamas has called for Muslims around the world to come to their aid. There are reports that representatives of Hamas, PIJ and Fatah (PA) will meet in Ramallah to discuss the plan and coordinate responses. I have not seen any public responses from Hezbollah in regards to the peace plan, but anticipate that they could respond in support to any associated rioting against Israel.
Israel is reported to be reinforcing checkpoint security and deploying ground units for rapid response if necessary.
N Korea -
Not to be missed by the other news, OSINT and US officials note unusual vehicle activity as the Sanumdong plant that builds NK ICBM/SLVs. The report activity consistent with what has been seen prior to other missile tests.