SARS -
Overnight the reported number of infections in China increased by about 40%. From about 12 hours ago China reported 4515 confirmed cases and 106 deaths (2.3% mortality rate) . Observers are concerned this is just the tip of the iceberg. Reuters is reporting that “Researchers at Lancaster University estimate that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan have been identified. By Jan. 21, they estimated a total of 11,341 people had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. More than 30,000 people in Wuhan are under observation, according to the city’s health authorities.” More countries around the world reporting infections and more are issuing travel restrictions to china. Getting accurate reports and numbers still a challenge.
On an economic scale, the quarantine in China combined with the associated panic of surrounding nations has really slammed things. Besides medical supplies like protective N95 masks, food and other medicines are becoming scarce and / or expensive.
Watching - medical warnings that china reported infections will reach 250,000 by next week. If this happens, then a lot of concerns about its spread may be justified.
Iran -
OSINT from commercial satellite imagery suggest that Iran is preparing for a satellite launch. Such a launch would defy a UN Security council resolution, but there is no teeth to that resolution other than sanctions by individual nations. Launch may correspond to the marking of the 41st anniversary of the 1979 Islamic takeover of Iran.
Lebanon-
Hezbollah and allies are consolidating their capture of the Lebanese government. Christian and Druze parties left out of the picture. This may not solve the severe economic woes of the country and may further increase tensions between Shia Hezbollah and opposing factions.
Israel / US Peace Plan
Netanyahu and Gantz meet with President Trump separately yesterday to be briefed on the US peace plan. Muslims in Gaza and the West Bank are gearing up to protest the plan. The temple mount is one sore area that may explode in violence. Hamas has called for Muslims around the world to come to their aid. There are reports that representatives of Hamas, PIJ and Fatah (PA) will meet in Ramallah to discuss the plan and coordinate responses. I have not seen any public responses from Hezbollah in regards to the peace plan, but anticipate that they could respond in support to any associated rioting against Israel.
Israel is reported to be reinforcing checkpoint security and deploying ground units for rapid response if necessary.
N Korea -
Not to be missed by the other news, OSINT and US officials note unusual vehicle activity as the Sanumdong plant that builds NK ICBM/SLVs. The report activity consistent with what has been seen prior to other missile tests.
could you post the source of the most recent China Sars report
thanx
The middle east peace plan to be announced at 1 PM DC time. Watch for violence by Palestinians in response.
Israel / US Peace Plan
On cue, Palestinians wasted no time mounting a violent response. Riots near Hebron have reportedly resulted in IDF firing live rounds. Other protests getting ramped up in other towns in the west bank such as Rafah and Ramallah. Hamas has officially announced its rejection and declares it will overthrow it. Protests now reported ramping up in Gaza.
Warning - not sure if Hamas/PIJ will launch rocket attacks in response. This would escalate the situation far above protests. At this stage I am inclined to think not - important stage in forming international support for their side of the story, so to speak. Bad PR. PIJ is a hot head group with very close ties to Iran and may buck Hamas’ leadership on this as they have other times recently.
SARS -
The British paper The Independent is reporting that patients in Germany and Japan who caught the coronavirus did not visit China. Interesting development.