Overnight stuff
SARS -
Wuhan coronavirus is reportedly spread to many other countries now, including the US (Everette Washington). Chinese officials have said the virus is mutating and becoming more human transmissible. There are many articles on the interwebs but I’d like to make a few points.
How serious of a threat is this? Based upon REPORTED cases and deaths, there appears to be about a 2-3% mortality rate. The last major outbreak had a mortality rate of nearly 30%. As with other SARS/coronaviruses, they attack the respiratory systems, thus the old and those with weakened immune systems are at the highest risk. Further mutations could increase the mortality rates.
Originally thought to be transmitted from animals to humans, the mutation of the virus to human-human transmission is significant. Generally the virus is contained in mucus from sinuses or saliva that are spewed into the air from coughing /sneezing. As with most viruses, through hand cleaning and sanitation practices are among the best defense. As China is forced to open up information to the medical community in general, better knowledge of transmission and lethality will be better know.
N Korea
New minister of defense appointed. NK projecting an attitude that it will resume nuclear and ballistic missile testing as they wish
Israel/Gaza
Hamas states that the current round of IED balloon attacks being conducted by independent elements, but that if Israel drags its feet in negotiations with Hamas, they will take a more active role.
Libya
More fighting around / in Tripoli as cease fire efforts fail. Many see Turkish intervention a step in their trying to reestablish the califate in the region.
ping to 129
SARS -
China has banned all Lunar New Years celebrations. Initial quarantine of Wuhan now expanded to Huanggang, Zhijiang, Qianjiang, Chibi, Ziantao and Ezhou (approximately 20,000,000 people). Virus spreading globally with confirmed cases now in Taiwan, Hong Kong (setting up quarantine camps), Thailand, S Korea, Japan, US, Singapore, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia. Others being tested in Canada, Mexico and Scotland. The increasingly severe efforts China is placing to stop the spread of the virus may indicate that the virus is more easily spread than is currently being reported.
Food shortages being reported in Wuhan as well as several Wuhan hospitals calling for public donations of masks, scrubs, protective gear, etc. Hospitals also reported to be at maximum capacity due to suspected virus patients. Not a good thing and indicative of the situation in that town becoming more intense and desperate.
A February 2017 Nature article is being circulated indicating that a BSL-4 dangerous pathogen lab was being established in Wuhan. At that time it was reported to be “on the cusp” of being certified. It would be difficult to specifically finger such a facility as the source, since SARS related viruses don’t require a BSL-4 facility to study. Chinese officials are still stating that the initial infections are due to consumption of bats. Coronaviruses are common in animals particularly bats.
Still poor information on mortality rates. Last I saw was about 2%. For reference the Spanish flu mortality rate approximately 10-20%. That was also in an era of substantially poor medical care. Even at a 2% rate, if 100 million get infected, that comes to 2 million deaths.
Finally, beware of a video showing an individual face down in blood on a sidewalk and a Chinese ambulance with biosuited medics. It is reportedly a scene from the Contagion movie and not real life.
Iraq -
Yesterday a gunman shot and killed a commander of the hardline Basij milita - an Iranian supported group nefariously known for brutal attacks on anti-govt protestors. The commander, Abdolhossein Mojaddami was a close ally of Soleimani.
Pro-iranian elements are announcing a million man march to expel US forces from Iraq.
Israel
On alert due to 75th remembrance of the Holocaust. Substantial numbers of diplomates and world leaders present.