SARS -
China has banned all Lunar New Years celebrations. Initial quarantine of Wuhan now expanded to Huanggang, Zhijiang, Qianjiang, Chibi, Ziantao and Ezhou (approximately 20,000,000 people). Virus spreading globally with confirmed cases now in Taiwan, Hong Kong (setting up quarantine camps), Thailand, S Korea, Japan, US, Singapore, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia. Others being tested in Canada, Mexico and Scotland. The increasingly severe efforts China is placing to stop the spread of the virus may indicate that the virus is more easily spread than is currently being reported.
Food shortages being reported in Wuhan as well as several Wuhan hospitals calling for public donations of masks, scrubs, protective gear, etc. Hospitals also reported to be at maximum capacity due to suspected virus patients. Not a good thing and indicative of the situation in that town becoming more intense and desperate.
A February 2017 Nature article is being circulated indicating that a BSL-4 dangerous pathogen lab was being established in Wuhan. At that time it was reported to be “on the cusp” of being certified. It would be difficult to specifically finger such a facility as the source, since SARS related viruses don’t require a BSL-4 facility to study. Chinese officials are still stating that the initial infections are due to consumption of bats. Coronaviruses are common in animals particularly bats.
Still poor information on mortality rates. Last I saw was about 2%. For reference the Spanish flu mortality rate approximately 10-20%. That was also in an era of substantially poor medical care. Even at a 2% rate, if 100 million get infected, that comes to 2 million deaths.
Finally, beware of a video showing an individual face down in blood on a sidewalk and a Chinese ambulance with biosuited medics. It is reportedly a scene from the Contagion movie and not real life.
Iraq -
Yesterday a gunman shot and killed a commander of the hardline Basij milita - an Iranian supported group nefariously known for brutal attacks on anti-govt protestors. The commander, Abdolhossein Mojaddami was a close ally of Soleimani.
Pro-iranian elements are announcing a million man march to expel US forces from Iraq.
Israel
On alert due to 75th remembrance of the Holocaust. Substantial numbers of diplomates and world leaders present.
Quick notes
SARS -
Please note!!! There is a lot of doom porn, rampant speculation, mis information and flat out fake reports out there. Please remember not to trust everything you read on the internet. With all this junk cluttering up the web it is hard to get a grasp on just what is really happening and the threat it poses. Quick review of what we know
1. China has instituted massive quarantines throughout the country affecting upwards of 60 million. Health services are overwhelmed and military being deployed to assist overwhelmed hospitals.
2. China is holding back critical information (IMHO) to lessen the extent of the infection.
3. Scientists indicate (based on data released) that the Ro (spreading rate) is between 2 - 4. Meaning each infected person infects 2-4 others.
4. Incubation period of 10-14 days. Can spread virus well before symptions are evident.
5. Mortality rate estimated 2-4% range. These numbers can potentially increase if China is suppressing real values.
6. Besides China, infections now throughout numerous nations.
7. Those at most risk are elderly (pneumonia) as well as those with weakened immune systems.
Basic precautions necessary. Hand washing, don’t touch eyes/nose. Avoid crowded areas. Stock up on over the counter flu related supplies (treating symptoms). Obtain some protective N95 masks and nitrile gloves. Store up some water (with back up purification methods) food and extra vitamin c.
Iraq -
Anti us protestors were in the street yesterday demanding US removal. These are pro-Iranian militia members and supporters. Same militias attacked an antigovernment protest in Baghdad killing and wounding many.
Israel/Gaza.
With reports that hamas was going to stop the IED balloon attacks, more were launched overnight. Israel has withheld response probably to give Hamas room to deal with it themselves first.
Taal -
Volcanologists report increased inflation and magma movement. Only minor steam blasts since its initial eruption. Everything still points to a potential major eruption in the near future.