Posted on 07/18/2018 9:56:26 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
In earlier posts I have made the flat assertion the Republicans, however undeserving they are, will win 11 Democrat Senate seats from the crashing Democrats. I stand by that prediction.
One of the races that will be seen as an upset by a lot of people, will be the Democrats' loss of Bob Menendez's seat in New Jersey. That loss will bring the Democrats' loss total to eleven. He will lose to Republican challenger Bob Hugin.
Those who only read yesterday’s headlines probably laughed at this confident prediction and probably didn’t even “bother” to read the reasoning behind it. That makes no difference; it's going to happen anyway.
My initial reaction to Hugin’s campaign was to note that he was “running” away from President Trump saying, “I’m a different kind of Republican.”
He is. He has conservative credentials – former Marine officer – small business owner – self financed – okay so far but what else?
He is pro- choice and boasts, “I’ll stand up to anyone, even the current occupant of the White House to stand up for New Jersey.” In a state like New Jersey he is hitting all the right notes for a Republican trying to win a statewide election.
Hugin’s first month of campaigning consisted of a steady stream of the same TV spot pounding Menendez for his slithering out of a corruption trial – in Newark of course. Since the spots were on broadcast TV it was easy to see that he meant business, is well financed, and intends to win. All of which sounds very much like the “.. current occupant of the White House.”
After a month, the first poll came out; and its results were as weird as anyone has ever seen. It showed Menendez leading 28 to 24, yes 28 to 24 with 46% undecided. This was a sure tip that Menendez is in trouble.
The guy is running for US Senate from a deep Blue State for the third time. In 2012 running with Barack Obama, Menendez won by 59/40 with Barack Obama winning New Jersey by 58/40. Now he is at 28% with 46% “undecided?”
The second poll in this race was just released and while its results are not weird, they are very scary for Senator Menendez.
A Gravis Poll shows Hugin trailing by just 43/41 with a 4.1 Margin of Error (which means Hugin could be leading already) and 16% “undecided.” This is BIG trouble for a Democrat incumbent in a Blue state in a year that Trump is right across the Hudson River.
Moreover, “A majority of voters–56 percent in total, split 28 percent apiece–say Menendez’s corruption trial is either somewhat or heavily impacting their voting decision.” Everybody in New Jersey knew Menendez would walk from a sham “trial” in his own neighborhood and almost 60% want to right that wrong.
No matter what Menendez says or does he cannot escape numbers like this. What’s more the 9% who say they are “not sure” if Menendez's corruption trial will impact their vote are there for Hugin’s taking. It is likely they do think it is an important factor but they just don’t want to say it out loud.
The importance of this very weak showing cannot be overstated as it relates to National Democrats’ hopes for being able to pick off a few Republican House seats in New Jersey.
This “blood in the water” news will energize New Jersey Republicans as they have not been energized and enthused about voting in many years. Conversely, it is clear that New Jersey Democrats are not enthusiastic about voting for Menendez which will be more trouble in November.
When he gets his visit from the new leader of the Democrat Party, Alexandria Ocasio – Cortez and is handed the platform he MUST run on, if Menendez caves in he is finished.
If he doesn’t he will find himself fighting her AND Hugin. She is right next door in New York City and has just announced she wants her Crazies to start “occupying” airports. If she picks Newark Airport what will Menendez do?
Remember the ridiculous Survey Monkey has Joe Manchin from West Virginia (where Trump won by 42 points) and Jon Tester of Montana (who won by just 3.5% in 2012), both leading by the same 12 points that Debbie Stabenow is leading by in Michigan where Trump won by just .3% in 2016.
Does that make any sense at all? Of course not.
In 2016 Survey Monkey was exposed by Wikileaks as a willing collaborator with NBC to produce fake polls showing Hillary Clinton leading. They are back to making things up again.
Bob Menendez goes in the loser bin and along with Bill Nelson of Florida, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Jon Tester of Montana. Menendez makes number seven and counting.
The other four will be identified in a future installment.
Thanks for posting this day-brightening article. I really needed a break from doom and gloom.
I have zero confidence in computer elections.
Don’t live anywhere near NJ & certainly can’t vote there,but it will feel really good to see that loser Menendez voted out.
I doubt we will win 11, but 5 or 6 will do fine.
And even then he would still have problems!
Jim, Ya gotta give this guy, kudos for line of the month of July, and if you do it with a formal recognition, I will donate an additional $ 100 this quarter {to help offset even more Free Riders}.
I know this sounds like a bribe, but think of it as an incentive for more creative thinking.
There's an overuse of quote marks. Things like, "..and probably didn’t even “bother” to read" and, "...note that he was “running” away from President Trump", shouldn't have those quoted words. They are perfectly good words and you aren't quoting anyone.
I agree, a 28%-24% poll for an incumbent Democrat US Senator, in New Jersey of all places, is a devastating result.
Any incumbent polling below 40% support a few months out from an election is on his way out.
You and me - a lifelong programmer - both.
Nonsensical crap. It won’t divide the Trump supporters or destroy their awareness that MM has done a fine job getting judges confirmed and, in the face of the Gop, the tax cuts and other policies have been passed.
You blowhards have no idea of what being the Majority Leader involves, not a clue.
Whatever you say, Mitch.
I can’t seem more than four vulnerable seats, but eleven sounds greatly.
It is encouraging to see that the Freepers who wake up each morning looking for something to be afraid of seems to have peaked. It is getting harder and harder for them to find something to hang on to in this Trump Tornado. What they will do when the Second Quarter GDP number is posted is anyone’s guess. Nevertheless, the rest of us realize that it is just as wrong to UNDERESTIMATE your position than to OVERESTIMATE it. Hint on next four: I’ve mentioned one already and this is the big question What if anything separates the recognized losers from the likely next loser to fall over the cliff? The answer is nothing as they are all “just another Democrat.”
I will wait a while for a few things I see to develop before identifying the next loser.
Check the “Dumbass Manual of Responses,” that one was pitifully weak.
Seems to have gotten under your micrometer-thin skin.
Eleven? I hope so! Murkowski and Collins et al would no longer matter.
No better, try again.
The fact that you keep responding tells me everything I need to know.
One more time. I promise to let your little thin skin have the last word.
McConnell ... and Boehner.....
We cant get anything done with only one half of one branch of government (The House)....
Give them The Senate too and.... well, we need The Executive....
Trump wins and they proceed to fight him
Tooth and nail....
Yertle the Turtle needs to go!
If it looks like menendez is going to lose, they will just replace him with Frank Lautenberg in the 25th hour.
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