Posted on 11/05/2016 4:18:00 PM PDT by grey_whiskers
I agree with your assessment. Also, very skeptical that Trump is up that high among independents in Nevada. If I had to guess, I think Clinton wins the state by around 3 percent. Hope I’m wrong.
I think it will be tight in Nevada, hence certain precincts in Clark county will be unreported until they are able to get the correct vote count.
I'll speculate that Obama’s lead in Dem/GOP early voting was significantly higher than Hillary's lead in 2016, which appears to be less than 5%.
The numbers I dug up earlier today indicated that the actual voter registration tallies in Nevada as of 10/31 (or somewhere around then) were 39.7%-32.6%-27.7%.
So it looks like the Democrats are slightly outperforming their registrations, the Republicans are doing even better, and the unaffiliated voters are running a few points behind.
Let's all keep in mind that Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012, so it's critical for Trump to do well among unaffiliated and minor-party voters.
2012
Obama 528,801
Romney 462,422
Others about 19000
Compute what % has voted of the 2012 numbers, and assume some population growth
Lots of Mormons in NV, and Obamugabe beat Romney handily in NV in 2012.
Early voting in Week 2 was 360,000.
Total votes cast in 2012 was just slightly over 1 million.
It seems likely that early voters in 2016 will be at least 40% of the total vote.
From numbers above, Dems are currently at 61% of their total 2012 vote.
GOP at 60% of their 2012 vote.
Yes, assuming all Dems vote Clinton etc.
There are likely about 420,000 votes yet to be cast Tues. 45K is 11% of those. GOP on election day has to win by 11% to win this state.
From 2012:
Obama won 52-46 (528,801 - 462,422)
D/R/I was 38/28/34
M/F was 47/53
Racial breakdwon:
White 64%
Hispanic 19%
Black 9%
Asian 5%
Other 4%
I would assume the Hispanic population has gone up. By how much I have no idea.
“her support is that unenthusiastic.”
And in MD too, where my kid lives. We were down there last month and I don’t think I saw one hillary sign, in the same area that was awash in Obama bumper stickers, etc. four years ago.
Looks like the Vegas Unions lined up their members to vote. Not as bad as what was previously reported.
Some more granularity. Let’s give trump 55/45 of non affiliated.
That cuts the lead of 45600 down to 28,800.
This is 7% of the votes yet to be cast. GOP would need to win by 7% on Tues to win the state, if the EVs/Absentees among unaffiliated went 55/45 Trump.
I found the following from a poster (who got this from another poster) on another thread:
I just ran the numbers. 767,000 Nevadans have voted so far. Among the ballots returned: 42% Democrat, 37% Republican, 21% Independent.
To allocate the votes to specific candidates, I averaged the cross-tabs on Democrats, Republicans, and Independents from the last 3 Nevada polls. I did not include the previous poll before that (Emerson) as it was taken 10 days ago. The last 3 polls are all within the last week.
Based on the last 3 Nevada polls, the cross-tabs are:
Democrats: 82% Clinton, 14% Trump
Republicans: 85% Trump, 9% Clinton
Independents: 46% Trump, 34% Clinton
As you can see, Trump has a significant cross-over advantage and handily wins Independents.
Applying these cross-tabs to the early vote numbers, you get:
Trump - 360,413 votes Clinton - 344,459 votes
That puts Trump at a 2% lead.
Obviously this is all contingent on the poll cross-tabs being accurate. But based on the available data, Trump is likely narrowly winning Nevada.
And even more granularity. Let’s give Trump a crossover advantage of 3% (more dems vote for him than never trump types vote hillary). That’s 3% of the total D/R EV/Absentees or about 18000 votes.
That would bring the lead down to about 11000.
11000 is only 2.6% of the probable 420,000 votes yet remaining. Not that big a lead to make up.
Ya, a % or two crossover is really powerful in the numbers. I just pulled 3% out of the air, but it’s a huge 3%.
Conclusion is Trump doesn’t have all that much lead to make up Tuesday.
If Trump is +25 on indies its about dead heat with repubs generally better turnout on election day
The tail that wags the dog - wherever Clark County goeth, Nevada follows.
Very true, unfortunately...
Till I heard about this i was confident trump would win the election based on all the other early voting now im not so sure.
How does RAT votes being up 18,899 favor Trump?
It looks very bad.
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