Oregon.
Trump will win Ohio and Pennsylvania and maybe even michigan
Bush won in 2000 without Pennsylvania or Iowa.
I agree. I would not let Hillary clean up your dog’s $hit, either.
Hi.
If Trump wins NH, it’s all over for PIAPS.
5.56mm
I would let Hillary clean up my dog’s shit but only if I rubbed her nose in it first.
Looking at the 2012 map...
I think Trump is polling ahead in Iowa, Florida, and Ohio.
This brings him to 259.
Now, in 2004, Bush got Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico....and Virginia. A few of those, and Trump is over the top.
i am hoping for Conn. RI. and Wisconsin
I think that PA is the key. If Trump wins there he is likely to win OH, NC, GA, FL, and the usual Midwestern states. If Trump doesn't win PA he could still theoretically, but unlikely, win with VA or WI, assuming no other unexpected losses.
What states can Trump flip?
I’m going bold, I say he maintains/flips to RED:
AZ, AK, NV, UT, MT, WY, CO, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, IA, MO, AR, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, TN, KY, IN, OH, PA, NH.
He may even get: OR, WI, MN, NJ, NY, another New England state or two.
I’m praying people go to vote and God takes them over in the moment and they don’t even know why they are doing so but they choose to vote Trump! They may feel guilty or weird about it but by 2018 they are glad they did :) KNOWING full well by then that Hillary would have doomed the USA and what it has stood for as a nation, opportunity, good work ethic, responsibility for yourself and family, less Govt control of people and business etc.
Early voting suggests Minnesota of all places MIIIIIGHT turn red.
This really shocked me.
Latest poll had him within the margin of error in New Hampshire, he’ll definitely pick up at least one, potentially three EV’s in Maine. I saw that he was up in Nevada. I think if you put some of those together with of course Iowa, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, you end up with enough to put him over the top without Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania would certainly be a big help though.
Let’s review:
Using simplest path, Trump needs to flip 63 electoral votes over Romney in 2012. The closest states where Obama edged Romney were:
(lost by % of vote) (EVs) EV total
Florida (<1%) (29) 29
Ohio (1.9) (18) 47
Virginia (3) (13) 60
Colorado (4.7) (9) 69
next five closest
Pennsylvania (5.2) (20) 20
Iowa (5.6) (6) 26
New Hampshire (5.8) (4) 30
Nevada (6.6) (6) 36
Wisconsin (6.7) (10) 46
[North Carolina -2.2] Romney (15) The only ‘close’ state that went GOP in 2012.
Michigan
I heard Al Franken is going to have to come up with more than a trunk full of ballots to help Hillary carry St Louis County (Duluth) Minnesota. I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota flipped. Wouldn’t that be something.
We assuming he retains all the Romney states (this includes the knock-down-drag-out all-out fight in NC).
PLUS Ohio and Iowa and Florida (another complete absolute total war)
That’s 10 short of 269 (a tie) (and a win in the House and in the Senate).
PA with 22 EVs looks VERYVERY DOABLE.
Possibly also Nevada (6) and Colorado (9) and Maine-2nd Congressional District. Sort of in that order.
BUT I’M THINKING WE’RE IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A SURGE. Could be a really big victory!!!!!
I hope he can at least retain Texas.. /sarc
Virginia
Is there any chance in NY (home state), NJ (Christy) or California?