Reuters Baffled As Clinton's Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates

Time Magazine Image, Reuters Graphics, RealClearPolitics on zero hedge ^ | 6AUG16 | Reuters, RealClearPolitics copied by Tyler Durden

[vannrox]

Reuters Baffled As Clinton's Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates

by Tyler Durden

Aug 6, 2016 2:55 PM

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We're gonna need another polling methodology 'tweak'...

Having seen her poll numbers suddenly explode higher (and Trump's collapse) following Reuters' decision to tweak its polling methodology, it appears we just witnessed 'Peak Hillary' as Reuters reports Clinton's lead over Trump has tumbled back to just 3 points (the poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points) meaning, as Reuters is forced to admit, that the results suggest the race is roughly even...

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

 

About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even. Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.

Reuters tweaked data shows Hillary's lead has peaked...

Reuters subtly points out the folly of their survey respondents...

Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.

 

Since then, Trump has engaged in a days-long feud with the family of an American soldier killed in Iraq and squabbled with the Republican leadership over his comments and leadership turmoil within his campaign.

But as RealClearPolitics' aggregated data shows, the swings are dramatic to say the least...

 

The noise in these polling numbers is incredible and prompted MishTalk's Mike Shedlock to take a caustic look at the prognostications of the web's forecasters... Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts and Author of Moods and Markets asked an interesting question today: “Have we reached peak Hillary yet?” 

In Atwater’s tweet, he posted a flashback to this January 2014 Time Magazine cover.

The answer to the question “Can anyone stop Hillary?” is pretty obvious: Yes, Trump can easily win if he can ever learn to control his mouth (a recession hits or some dirt that matters comes out on Hillary that matters).

Ridiculous Forecasts

I watch with amusement as Nate Silver posts his ridiculous forecasts on the Presidential Election Odds.

Rest assured, Hillary does not have a 79% chance of winning.

Pure Idiocy

• Supposedly, Hillary has a 79.9% chance of winning in November as of today.
• Supposedly, Trump had a 50.1% chance of winning in November on July 31, just four days ago!
• Supposedly, Hillary had a 77.4% chance of winning in November on July 12.

This is pure idiocy.

Silver is clearly taking the news of the day and projecting it out to November when voters clearly have a time span of about three days.

How Silver can look himself in a mirror and make such widely varying off the wall predictions is a mystery.

Social Mood

Atwater had a second tweet today that is quite interesting...

It says a lot about current social mood when a modest rise in people's level of happiness can upend a candidate. pic.twitter.com/Us4EFpYV3I

— Peter Atwater (@Peter_Atwater) August 4, 2016

Social Mood is clearly in control here.

 

 

Silver is totally clueless about what social mood will be in November, just as he was totally clueless about social mood the entire Republican nomination process.

*  *  *

We leave it to Reuters themselves to conclude with their thoughts on the drop in Hillary's support and revival of Trump...

The reasons behind the shift were unclear.

Unclear indeed.

[PhilDragoo]

[realEmperorNorton]

What goes around comes around, and so forth.

[Gene Eric]

The MSM is the Country’s greatest threat.

[VRWC For Truth]

Her lips are moving ...

[Russ]

Read the headlines on the Fox News website this morning. One negative Trump story after another. According to them this race is as good as over and Trump is finished. I do believe they have joined the “Never Trump” movement...

[Cboldt]

Somebody will manufacture a poll in Hillary's favor. This morning it is ABC/WaPo, showing Hillary with an 8 point lead.

Poll finds Clinton has widened lead ahead of Trump to 8 points - The Washington Post

The Post-ABC survey is in line with most polls conducted in the days after the Democratic convention in Philadelphia ended.

[Fred Nerks]

There are some things money can't buy...

[goat granny]

great movie

[Liz]

Great wrap....hope this gets to The Donald ASAP. Amazing how you tapped into The Donald's predilection for those unerring comebacks:

==========================================

(HAT TIP POINQ) Trump should keep his fire on Hillary. She is lying low.....staying off-camera because people are reminded of how unlikable she is whenever she talks. Hillary is using surrogates to attack Trump (and there's a passel of them all lined up); Hillary hopes Trump spends his ammo attacking them.

Trump should always stay on target and attack Hillary.

<><> If Meg Witman attacks Trump, Trump should say that Hillary is selling her self to another rich person.

<><> If Buffett attacks Trump, Trump should say that Hillary sold out the middle class to Wall Street.

<><>If Buffett asks for Trumps Taxes, Trump should ask for all Hillary’s Wall Street speeches. And the tax returns from her foundation.

[Raycpa]

Why did margin of error become credibility index?

[Liz]

She made a huge strategic error, picking Kaine as her running mate.
She knows SHE is unlikable and stays behind the scenes as much as
possible.....but she sure can't send Kaine out to do the heavy duty campaign
lifting.

Kaine always looks like he's thinking, "what the hell am I doing here?"

Kaine's amazing confession---that he feels like he's
been "kidnapped"----makes it clear that Hillary goofed.

[iontheball]

The media can only maintain their cooked numbers for so long before reality takes over. They were hoping yet again to drive the narrative where Trump would implode. Let’s see, what number are they now on for this latest media blow-back. When will they ever learn.

[PapaBear3625]

Big leads DON’T just suddenly “evaporate”. At this point, who somebody is “for” is fairly settled in their heads.

What more likely happened is the pollers decided that their fraudulently pro-Hillary polls would shortly be exposed as fake, so they had to start using numbers a bit closer to reality.

[I want the USA back]

The deceitful media has been working hard to destroy Trump. They have been working in concert with hillary to present her as the best alternative. They will be stepping up the pace of their attacks on Trump. We can hope that the public gets its head out of its collective anal exit passageway and sees what a disaster hillary would be.

[DaveA37]

“Please stay safe, Mr. Trump. Lots of Hillary opponents and associates have been “randomly” killed or committed “suicide”’lately. /sadly not kidding”............

Supposedly there was a recent story about some guy who was caught sneaking into the Trump Tower with an illegal firearm, illegal silencer, etc. and his fingerprints matched those of a dead FBI agent. Does anyone have a link to that story? Thanks

[Liz]

.......what did Tim Kaine say when Hillary asked him to be vice-president........

He said, "Vice-president of what?"

[DaveA37]

“Polls are only meaningful if executed honestly, otherwise they are meaningless.”..

Meaning, “the system is rigged”. Exactly what I have been stating for some time.

[DaveA37]

“Read the headlines on the Fox News website this morning:.....

No thanks, I stopped reading anything from Fox a long time ago. The only GOOD thing they posted were the photos of pretty girls in bikinis.

[KeyLargo]

Clinton Chooses Black Lives Matter Over Law Enforcement Support

Kerry Picket
Reporter
2:28 PM 08/06/2016

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton pursued the endorsement of Black Lives Matter activists but blew off the largest police union in the United States.

After almost a year of meeting with Black Lives Matter representatives, Clinton failed to garner the support of the movement’s co-founder Alicia Garza, but she managed to receive the endorsement of mothers championed by the Black Lives Matter movement.

Garza recently slammed Clinton, saying the former secretary of state only “uses black people for votes” and “photo ops,” but doesn’t “do anything for black communities” after getting elected.

Nevertheless the Clinton-Kaine campaign touts the support she received during the Democratic National Convention from mothers of the Black Lives Matter movement.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/06/clinton-chooses-black-lives-matter-over-law-enforcement-support/

[tomd2]

Bill Still (if you believe him) says they are paniced. It is a good story.
all rigged
Still Report #1096 - How Clinton Rigs the Polls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLf63B1R5aY
Published on Aug 6, 2016
Good morning, I’m still reporting on the invasion.
To make any good invasion work, you have to have the element of surprise. And to have the element of surprise, you have to control the flow of information to the public.
According to an insider at Nate Silver’s political advocacy group, 538, Donald Trump was right again. The system is rigged. The polls are rigged.
According to an Aug. 2 interview in “Real. True. News.”, an unnamed source at 538 says that despite the brave front Hillary Clinton continues to display to the public, Democrats are in an absolute panic because Donald Trump has taken a commanding lead in nearly all demographic groups.
But in the battle for hearts and minds, the information control game goes on without embarrassment about a basic lack of a tie to reality.
For example, yesterday’s headline on “FiveThirtyEight” was “Trump’s Slump Deepens in Polls.”
Therein, 538 head, Nate Silver, notes that Trump is trailing Clinton by 9 to 14 point margins now in the majority of big national polls, and he is predicting a Clinton win by 4 points on Nov. 8 and projects the odds of a Clinton win at 74% - her highest mark yet.
This despite the latest USC Daybreak poll showing a less than 1% margin. How is this possible?
Well, the insider gives us our first peek under the tent of Poll Control Central.
He tells a different story - one of nation-wide collusion with the Clinton machine and poll-buying, first whispered of during Trump’s primary run.
According to 538 guy:
“Nate [Silver] is a liberal. No secret there.
“It’s a big social club. The pollsters all work together.”
When the RTN reporter questioned the conspiratorial nature of that concept, the 538 insider said:
“Sure—what? You think it’s . . . random? Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results.
“You’re buying media. It’s like ads or . . . I don’t know. Like newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want.”
Interestingly he chose Florida for his example because polls the day before the Florida primary showed the race between Trump and Rubio to be exceptionally close. But the next day, the vote turned out to be a Trump blowout.
538 guy then explained that Silver’s office is where the expectations of Clinton’s nationwide poll buys are managed.
“We have a Slack-room that’s sharing all kinds of results and skews and that’s how we keep it all orderly.”
“Oh—we drive it. You set the expectations ahead of time. It’s called pre-loading. You’d be surprised how we can fine-tune things. Mass belief is powerful.
“The problem here is … not everyone plays nice. Fox is rogue. Rasumssen was … bad. They were doing real polling.”
Then, 538 guy commented on the difficulty Poll Control had in dealing with the rising tide of Trump support:
“This time … Trump just caught us by surprise. The impact was so big – it came on so fast – Hillary just collapsed.”
“There were a few hours when the server was showing real projections and while traffic was pretty high, let me tell you, it was a melt-down politically.”
Then, 538 guy admitted that Nate Silver’s Poll Control Central gets its marching orders directly from the White House.
“[Nate Silver] was just really pissed. I mean he got a call from the White House telling him to fix it and sh*t.”
“Our business model is predicated on making liberals feel better about the election.”
“[Nate] had us look for bugs—something gone wrong—looking at the feeds. Of course nothing was wrong. Nothing had changed.
“Then he got on the phone with his people embedded with Q-Pac and Survey Monkey and PPP and all those guys—”
Then 538 guy predicted that the White House’s Stalinesque control of the information flow to the American people was coming unglued.
“I don’t know, man. There are a bunch of smaller groups out there doing real polls. I don’t know if anyone can keep this under wraps.”
Part of that is that their polls are so different from the available metrics on social media flows so favor Trump. We’ll take a look at that in our next report.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
realtruenews
http://www.realtruenews.org/single-post/2016/08/02/POLL-PANIC-Nate-Silver-Scrambles-to-Save-Liberals