Posted on 06/18/2016 3:02:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Political risk has rarely had a more powerful impact on markets. As we head toward November, we must dig in and get to the bottom of what’s really going on. A reality TV star and real estate mogul just mowed down 17 accomplished Republican candidates, by May 3rd it was all over but the shouting.
“Investors need to prepare for a Trump presidency.”
Jeff Gundlach, May 2016
Donald J. Trump announced his candidacy for president in June 2015, to criticism, mockery, and doubt by the media and political class. Trump’s candidacy and campaign have been called a joke by many since Trump’s announcement. Today, five months away from the U.S. Presidential election Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee and within a few points of Hillary Clinton (according to Real Clear Politics Polling data), the presumptive Democratic nominee. Still, pundits are discounting Trump. Intrade gives him a 1/3 chance of victory, Forbes gives him a 1/4 chance. But Trump has come this far against all odds, so is winning the general election really that far-fetched? No, it’s not. Trump can win.
Presidential Election Total Votes: 120m low vs 135m high
2012 Share
Independents: 44%
Democrats: 31%....
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
A little kludgy, but market factoring was interesting, and ACG Analytics nod was good.
Sundance had some guy run statistical stuff based on Trumps primary votes vs normal primary runs...and if those statistics bear out in the general and there is really no reason to believe they wont Trump wins in a massive landslide...now if you ad a recession that could hit between now and November...Some people are going to get insurance notifications that thier obamacare premiums are going way up...and there could be more terror attacks plus who knows what legal trouble Hillary may get into.
Hillary does not have to get “indicted” Trump can indict her on the campaign and if some of the hacked emails are released by Assange or Guccifer 2 or whomever has them....the evidence will be there she committed multiple felonies and the government did not arrest her like they would any other joe schlubb...
So we shall see...
Well if that is his plan he had better get started doing it. He has spent a lot of time going after Republicans and not Democrats. But it's his plan, maybe there is a secret sauce ingredient he is keeping to himself. Depending on cross over Democrats is pretty risky I would think.
This race will be decided on only 2 states
Florida and Ohio . we can all go to these states and educate people talk to people into voting for Trump or we can sit back and watch freedom die .It’s really that simple
Markets discount a Trump win.
They like to play it safe and bettors expect Hillary to win.
HOORAY Trump
Just for eliminating low-energy Jeb, Donald J. Trump should be the next President.
No more Bushes, No more Clintons.
We did our part. Thanks, Trump
The ball is in your court independents, 'rats, confused, low-information, voters
NO MORE Clintons
C'mon November
Ballot box BUMP!
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