Human Extinction Isn't That Unlikely

theatlantic.com ^ | April 29, 2016 | ROBINSON MEYER

[PROCON]

“A typical person is more than five times as likely to die in an extinction event as in a car crash,” says a new report.

Nuclear war. Climate change. Pandemics that kill tens of millions.

These are the most viable threats to globally organized civilization. They’re the stuff of nightmares and blockbusters—but unlike sea monsters or zombie viruses, they’re real, part of the calculus that political leaders consider everyday. And according to a new report from the U.K.-based Global Challenges Foundation, they’re much more likely than we might think.

In its annual report on “global catastrophic risk,” the nonprofit debuted a startling statistic: Across the span of their lives, the average American is more than five times likelier to die during a human-extinction event than in a car crash.

[ModelBreaker]

“Across the span of their lives, the average American is more than five times likelier to die during a human-extinction event than in a car crash.”

So, on average, 55,000 Americans die in a human-extinction event each year? Happened to a bunch of folks I know just last year.

[PROCON]

Well, you have to admit there’s a whole lot of “human extinction” going on in our democratically controlled inner-cities.

[FlingWingFlyer]

I thought Obonzo and ObamaCare had all of this handled.

[IronJack]

the U.K.-based Global Challenges Foundation

So fear-mongers have gone pro.

[Zionist Conspirator]

That can’t happen. Don’t they know that the world must inevitably end in “social justice?” [/sarcasm]

[Jack Hammer]

If a study of history indicates anything at all, it indicates that no one ever expects something to happen until it happens.

[KarlInOhio]

>> “A typical person is more than five times as likely to die in an extinction event as in a car crash,” says a new report.

Extinction means everybody dies. With 7 billion people on the planet I think that's a bit more than five times the likelihood of dying in a car crash. The author is dumber than moldy goat cheese.

But multiply that by the odds of such an event. Right now the odds of dying in a car crash in the US is about 1 in 10,000 per year. For a 70 year lifespan that would be about a 0.7% chance to die in a crash. So he is stating that there is a 3.5% chance for the human race to become extinct in the next 70 years.

[TigersEye]

Which makes him a complete idiot.

[Bob434]

the bright side bothers my cataracts

[morphing libertarian]

somebody hit the re-set button

[dr_lew]

Thirty thousand people die each year in car crashes.

According to the internet, "Road traffic deaths" exceed 1 million, globally. With a population of order 6 billion, that gives us each a 1/6000 chance per year. I.e. in 6000 years, under current conditions, a number of people equal to today's global population would be killed in "Road traffic deaths".

This requires a global extinction event every 1200 years to keep up. Seems pretty pessimistic to me.

[The_Media_never_lie]

While we re still non extinct, would someone PLEASE ban stupidity, or al least discourage it.

[Does so]

I have an old 1956 article somewhere that claims over NINETY THOUSAND people in the USA died in car wrecks in 1955.

Now we have widespread marijuana use, so we're safer. :)

[Marcella]

I haven't read all the posts here, but these, in my opinion, are the ones most likely to kill us, in order of the mostly likely first:

1. Virus taking down the internet which takes out all power. Millions die.

2. Nuclear bomb from North Korea submarine, dropped on the west coast. Many thousands killed immediately, more thousands die from radiation.

3. Nuclear bomb blast in the atmosphere in the middle of the country taking out power and millions die. Russia and China could easily do that right now.

4. Pandemic started by terrorists bringing a bottled disease here and dispersing, thousands killed.

5. Natural disaster from cauldron under Yellowstone exploding, wiping out most of the US from direct contact or ash cloud spreading and killing multimillion's. The east coast would survive if they could quickly devise a way to have power and grow enough food to keep them alive which is doubtful. Few people know how to grow food now. They think grocery stores grow food and have cows for milk in the back of the store along with pigs for bacon.

6. If Iran finally gets a nuclear bomb and can deliver it here, they will do it as soon as they have it functional. I only list this one last because they can't do it now but they will definitely do it when they can to get rid of the Great Satan and get their Imam out of the well which means the end times to them.

Most likely: Obama admits he is the Antichrist, declares martial law, his military leaders follow him, and we end up using our defensive weapons to get rid of them all since there are more of us and they can't be everywhere at once.
To the NSA: This one paragraph is sarcasm, I have no defensive weapons (My 5 lb. Yorkie ate them), Obama is a real sweetheart of an Antichrist, and our military are concentrating on having a pleasant place for homosexual soldiers, so they aren't into military stuff, and martial law is actually marital law so same sex couples can marry.

[Nateman]

Graph here The rate of growth is going down as you have noted but it is still positive and that means it's still exponential. It does look like the growth rate is tending towards zero. I suspect this is because in the higher income countries it's simply too expensive to raise kids as opposed to the return they bring to their parents.