Posted on 03/31/2016 9:36:20 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
In sports we use the “magic number” formula to describe a team’s chances to either clinch a pennant or be eliminated. Ted Cruz has a “magic” elimination number. When either Donald Trump or John Kasich win a combination of 184 delegates, Cruz’s mathematical chance to win the nomination with 1,237 delegates is gone. Since the number of available delegates left to be won is a zero sum game; every delegate not won by Cruz moves him closer to his “magic” number downward.
Even if Cruz sweeps Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing because Trump is either leading or close, Cruz’s magic number will all but bottom out after the April 19th Northeast Super Tuesday which will put 267 delegates up for grabs. Even if Kasich can cut into Trump’s Northeastern hold, it is all but impossible to make a case that Cruz wins enough delegates to hold off the crash of his magic number.
John Kasich has no magic number. His campaign was over the day he announced. Nevertheless, both can act as agents of Mitt Romney’s GOPe and continue to try to keep delegates out of Trump’s column.
After April 19th there will be only one reason to vote for either Cruz or Kasich and that will be to force a disastrous, contested convention in July. That would help only Mitt Romney or whomever he deigns to lay hands on to help him steal the nomination. The voters will recognize this...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
Will Kasich and Cruz willingly play the GOPe’s “Golden Retriever” to help steal Trump’s nomination?
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Reality! Title rewrite. Will Cruz join with the GoPe and guarantee a Hillary victory come November.
Trump vs Cruz head-to-head actual primary election results for the 3 purple states which are must wins, real votes not opinion polls.
|——————Trump v Cruz -——— Trump v Cruz ———— Margin -——|
Ohio ............. 700,464 - 259,694 ...... 35.87% - 13.30% ..... +440,770 Trump
Florida ........ 1,079,741 - 404,804 ..... 45.72% - 17.14% ..... +647,937 Trump
Virginia ......... 355,961 - 173,191 ..... 34.73% - 16.90% ...... +182720 Trump
The facts say, Cruz can’t win FL,OH, or VA. He has to win all of them; therefore a vote for Cruz is a vote for Hillary.
Fantasy polls of potential future match ups or likability are always used as election propaganda and never reflect reality when just 2 candidates face each other.
Don’t be a GoPe useful idiot, vote Trump.
Useful idiot defined= A well intentioned individual who cares for their country but who whether by lack of factual info, preconceived bias, pride, or, not keeping an eye on the goal(keeping Hillary out)and beating the GoPe, votes to harm themselves and the rest of us while thinking their doing the lords work.
His resume and employment history since he got out of school. His votes for TPA cloture and Corker bill. His hiring of Neil Bush, his GOPe endorsements. His hard core globalist wife and her resume. There are none so blind as those whop refuse to see. DO CAP LOCKS MAKE ONE COOL?
Could be, but he has come out for ObamaCare, gay marriage, pro-choice, with the last two in the past month. He just said today that NATO should be built up....into an international spy agency...or some such nonsense. Sounds pretty one world to me.
IIRC, Ryan just used a democrat majority to pass a budget containing everything Obama wanted, authored TPP with Cruz, and is ready to build a ‘United Nations of North America’ along with the CFR.
And they’re fine and dandy with stealing elections.
We see the forces of manipulation in every report issued from any mouthpiece for any level of government or media.
And we wonder whether or not they consider themselves our masters.
They do.
As soon as Cruz is eliminated from 1237, the nomination is Trump’s.
That is the rule - the last candidate who has not been mathematically eliminated from a majority wins the nomination.
Trump/Rubio
************************
A cheap labor importer on the ticket would be liking shooting out one’s own tires
I think it will be Ryan/Rubio. Regardless, the GOPe has already won.
There have been campaigns that continued to the convention. But the result of the convention was in doubt because there were delegates that were not decided until the convention. Reagan's attempt to unseat Ford in 1976 was an example of that. What I have never heard of was a candidate who knew at best they could get 30 or 40 percent of the delegates staying in the campaign in hopes that the leading candidate would be unseated, too. Like, for spite instead of in hopes of winning.
I have been following campaigns since 1968, and I have read the history of many of them, including the Eisenhower one in 1952, in which some dirty tricks were played on Taft. But in that one, many of the states did not have primaries and you did not know ahead of time how the delegates would vote. This one is different. The party has set up a system where, ostensibly, its state primaries and caucuses select the winner. A clear leader has emerged from the pack, more clearly than McCain and Romney did in the prior two elections. Evenyone else dropped out at this point in those prior campaigns, because they could not overtake the leader.
Cruz can't win. He knows it. He just hopes to deny the majority to Trump. In so doing, he elects Hillary. It is unforgiveable.
Trump has already lost the Cruz supporters.
Oh goodie which supporters has trump rejected?
Then, along came Trump. A billionaire, who through use of his own resources might be able to break the stranglehold that the party has on the Presidency, and through gaining the Presidency, then change the ownership and structure of the RNC and party establishment. He provides a way to eliminate the biggest impediment that conservatives face, the GOPe, without requiring the formation of a new party, one that would take years to get traction, and which might give the Democrats control of the country for decades to come. It is far, far better than a third party option, if it works. If it doesn't work, if the party succeeds in its all out battle against the man who has won the primary elections that the party organized, in spite of the road blocks the party has put in front of him, then it will be more clear than ever that the Republican party cannot be a vehicle for the kind of change we as conservatives want to achieve, now or ever.
At that point, we will have no choice but to form a new party, and there will be no reason not to. I would feel differently if conservatives were a small outlier on the border of the Republican base, like the libertarians are. If they were, and were unable to ever see their candidates win and their policies adopted, I could understand that. But conservatives are the heart and soul of this country and of the Republican party. They form the vast majority of the party's voters. They brought the party to its greatest heights under Reagan and Gingrich. If conservatives cannot ever get a candidate through the rigged GOPe system, and if when they finally have someone, the party sabotages conservatives, then that party is the problem, not the solution. Time to leave it in the dustbin, with the Whigs. A billionaire can help us fund that movement, in time for the next election cycle.
Meanwhile, St. Cruz of Winnipeg can go to hell.
Both McCain and Romney had majorities going into the convention. If Trump has a majority I will agree with you but if he doesn’t then it’s just his to lose. You need a majority to be nominated and I can’t see too many Cruz, Kasich and Rubio delegates switching to Trump.
Trump provides a unique opportunity to disrupt the establishment. Of course, we are gambling, but with the establishment we aren’t gambling....we know we don’t like what we are getting.
Cruz had to eventually more over closer to the establishment, since he doesn’t have the money to run a national general election campaign.
Trump does, so I don’t think Cruz is much of an anti-establishment candidate. He might come through, but probably not.
McCain and Romney were behind Trump at this stage in their races. But their rivals dropped out when it became clear that their rivals could not overtake McCain and Romney. Gingrich, Santorum or whoever was in second and third in those races could have stayed in and perhaps been able to deny a majority to McCain and Romney with the expressed purpose of opening the convention up so that someone else could be the nominee.
No one has ever done that. It is suicidal to the party to do that, to continue a campaign you can't win in order to damage the one in the lead who without you staying in would easily win a majority, and may even win one if you do stay. The only thing that happens in that situation is that the party continues to damage itself for the general. It is insane. But so is Ted Cruz.
I agree it was always necessary that Cruz move towards the establishment if he made it far into the race, but it was not necessary that he cozy up to them instead of working with Trump and against them when push came to shove. In doing that, he has shown where his loyalty and tendencies lie. He, like Rubio, is conservative in many boilerplate theoretical ways, but by being part of the establishment, makes himeself part of an organization that is antithetical to conservatism.
Cruz thinks he still got a chance if Trump doesn’t get a majority. And he’s right in large part due to the clumsy manner that Trump has handled this by dividing the party.
Trump hasn't divided the party. The party has attacked him, nonstop and ceaselessly, from the moment he entered the race. That he has prospered nonetheless is a sign of the depth of feeling against the Republican establishment. Cruz should have tapped into it. Instead, he is working with the establishment to fracture the party and ensure democrat victory in November. The establishment is fine with that. They just don't want Trump to end their gravy train.
The party has attacked him. Which is another way of saying he’s divided the party. It’s not just a few elites in Washington who don’t want him. The majority of Republicans don’t want him. He’s got a plurality, nothing more. So it will come down to who the folk’s second choice is. There aren’t too many who list Trump as their second choice.
none I guess? It was about Ksick and Crude.
That statement makes no sense. It's like saying Obama attacked Romney, therefore Romney divided the country. No, it just means that the attacker is trying to harm the one being attacked. Trump has not divided the party; the party was in strong opposition to its base, and its base supports Trump, so the party is now in full attack mode, enlisting the media, who always love a milquetoast loser as Republican candidate.
The majority of Republicans don’t want him. He’s got a plurality, nothing more.
As did Romney and McCain at this stage. Trump has had to fight through 17 contenders, not the 7 or 8 that Romney and McCain had to deal with, and it has been even harder to gain a majority. But that is the nature of the primary, and when it is down to 2, someone starts getting a majority, and when it is down to 1, they sweep the remaining states and claim a large majority of delegates. This time, Cruz, in league with the establishment, wants to continue even though he cannot possilby win a majority.
If you are going to fashion yourself as Brilliant, you ought to be more astute.
Sure, if it stays closed to the rule 40 nominees after the first ballot.
But what if the GOPe is telling Cruz that he'll win the second ballot to keep him in the race now to block Trump from getting an outright majority, but then they revoke rule 40 at the convention and open round 2 to any nominee? Or, more likely lower rule 40 to 4 states and then get the New England states to give their delegates to Romney so he can meet the threshold of delegate support to be entered into nomination in round 2?
Remember, rule 40 doesn't say the nominee has to WIN a majority in 8 states, they just have to have the SUPPORT of a majority, however that support is obtained. That will be how a non-contestant will enter the convention, and Cruz will be left abandoned at the altar.
-PJ
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