Posted on 02/14/2016 12:44:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Apologies. I have no idea why I indulged myself to write so long to make such a simple point. Long story short: You can't tell people they've been flat wrong about everything for 17 years, without giving the slightest reason why they should change their entire scheme of thinking, and expect them to support you.
This was a brief line in the podcast (which we'll post tomorrow) which I expanded, for reasons I can now no longer guess, into a 1500 word exegesis on the obvious.
Just skip to the brief update.
...
The "ego" in the headline doesn't actually refer to Trump's ego, for once. Rather, it refers to the voters' egos.
I think Trump hurt himself badly tonight, enough to knock him out of his first-place standing in most states. Oh he won't completely disappear -- but 2nd Place Trump is not the same thing as Frontrunner Trump.
Trump damaged himself with his claim that Bush lied us into war in Iraq. Not botched the intelligence, not read too much into thin intelligence.
Most Republicans, I think, would agree that that.
No, Trump claimed that Bush deliberately lied us into war.
First, this is alarming because it once again demonstrates that Trump has a conspiratorial mind. It's not enough for the conspiracist to say someone was wrong -- no, they have unrealistically black/white minds, and if you made a bad call, you must have lied.
That conspiracism was always present in his claims about Obama's birth certificate. But that bit of fantasy was about Obama, someone the average Republican voter isn't exactly eager to man the battlements for.
This corker -- this Al Gore roar of quote -- is about George W. Bush, someone still looked upon with affection by most of the party.
Which brings us to the second problem.
If Donald Trump is right, and George W. Bush deliberately schemed with his neo-con advisers to "lie" us into a phony war with Iraq, what does that say about the average Republican voter who supported Bush from 1999, voted for him, defended him through the recount, cried with him on 9/11, agreed with him on Iraq, defended him from ceaseless liberal attacks on him during the war, defended him from Obama's never-expiring "Blame Bush" blame-shifting, etc.?
If Trump is right, then we're not just wrong to have supported him. If Trump's right, we're goddamned rubes and fools to have defended this Actual Hitler-Level Monster for going on 17 years now.
Everyone has an ego. Even Jeb Bush.
The first duty of every ego is to protect itself from attack.
People want to think well of themselves, and they wish to vote in a way that makes them think well of themselves. It's a critical goal in every campaign to convince the public that voting for this candidate is the Smart, Virtuous, Good thing to do, because people will vote in a way that enables them to luxuriate their egos.
That's how Barack Obama got elected. The media convinced people that they became smart and virtuous and good just by voting for this layabout pinko incompetent.
A good leader will challenge people, and that sometimes requires posing a threat to their egos. By telling someone they are wrong-- or at least aren't thinking about things quite straight --one is attacking their ego.
But someone adroit in persuasion understands when he is in fact attacking the core of someone's sense of self-worth, and does so cautiously, deploying all the reason and tactfulness he can marshal into the effort.
He attacks that person's ego to the smallest extent compatible with his goal (changing the person's mind), and offers him good reasons to change his mind.
He thus offers a lateral move, if you will, from one state of self-valuation to another. You give up on this one way of thinking, which would usually cause some psychic strain to the ego, but, on the other hand, you have been convinced of the rectitude of this other way of thinking. By moving to that new way of thinking, you gain a level of self-worth, so you're net even on the deal. (You might even gain some sense of self-worth for having been smart enough to recognize a good argument and having been openminded enough to consider it.)
It is very unpersuasive, on the other hand, to offer someone a flat contradiction of something they've long believed while offering no reason at all to accept a new replacement belief, except the assertion of it.
Abandoning the old position is damaging to one's sense of self-worth -- how could I have gotten it wrong for so long? But no easy glide-path to the new way of thinking is offered.
You sort of have to just knuckle under someone's flat assertion -- and subordinating oneself to another's claims, with no good reasons for such subordination offered, is even more hostile to the ego than being wrong.
Who wants to be someone else's Thought Bitch?
This is a long way of saying Trump specifically and completely contradicted a belief that 75-80% of Republicans have about Bush -- that he was a fundamentally decent man, perhaps overwhelmed by a very difficult period, who made an erroneous decision based on incomplete information -- and instead offered a new belief, that Bush deliberately lied about Iraq's WMD's, a position that 75-80% of Republicans have long not only rejected but have been actively hostile towards.
With no better reason to adopt this new claim other than that Donald Trump said it.
I doubt very much people will be willing to make this leap with Trump. Gathering political support is all about getting a buy-in of belief at a price that people are willing to pay (usually, a low price-- that's why politicians strain to parrot back to you things you already believe).
I think Trump, who has been a past-master at getting people to buy-in to a very low-cost premise -- "Let's Make America Great Again" -- just made a very high cost premise central to buying into him.
And I think for that reason that many people will be taking a second look at Trump -- and not in a good "second look" way. I think they'll be evaluating things they previously gave him passes on -- donations to Hilary, Reid, Pelosi, etc.; support for partial birth abortion; support for single-peer health care-- and re-evaluate those facts while keeping in mind Trump's big new premise that Republicans supported, voted for, defended, and sustained an actual war criminal who made war on a country he knew to be innocent of the claim he dishonestly profferred against it, for who knows what sinister gain.
We'll see if he tries walking this one back, and to what extent he's successful.
If it is now a part of the agenda that we actually have to buy into all the claims Gore, Pelosi, Obama, etc. made for years, I think this new agenda is going to turn out to be too highly priced for most Republican voters.
And Don't Even Get Me Started on Tribal Signaling. I was just telling someone that every campaign boils down to two four word claims:
I'M ON YOUR SIDE
HE'S NOT LIKE US
Dress it up however you like, the subconscious messaging in every election is just that.
I'm on Your side.
He's not like Us.
With just a few poorly chosen angry words, Trump declared a lot of allegiance to the enemy tribe, and essentially said "I'm not like you."
Trump was right on the money all night long.
They want to fight their 15 year war with no end and keep killing Americans, AND they want to start another war.
Bush wants BWIII, Bush War III.
Rich Lowery is a traitor to this nation.
Whoever wants to get us out of that damn war is a patriot. I don’t want my son risking his life over there again so idiot politicians can put a feather in their cap.
FIFTEEN damn years they’ve been killing our sons and daughters. Lousy bastard traitors.
It’s that simple!
Kasich couldnt deliver Ohio and Obama won their twice. Kasich is a pussy who lets the democrats commit massive voter fraud in Ohio.
The only reason it wont happen this year is because Trump takes 25% of the black vote.
Piss off Kasich you LOSER.
Funny how there are no Kasich or Bush supporters on this Forum.
Rubio proved he is hispanic first with his accusation that Cruz doesnt speak spanish.
Cruz proved he is American first and that Rubio is a slick degenerate liar who has never had a real job in his entire life.
Trump proved he doesnt suffer fools gladly, that you mess with him or the USA and he will bite your head off , that the politicians are all talk and no action, havent stopped Obama from doing ANYTHING and let him run up another 12 trillion in debt and drive out the American manufacturing base overseas.
Bush proved that he is a mental case that brings out his 90 plus year old mother out in the snow with her walker to campaign for him, she will break her hip any day now and he will blame Trump.
Carson proved he has a website and that he should go back to brain surgery, much better use of his talent than running for President.
Trump and Cruz continue to show they are the only ones worthy of consideration.
If he damages himself with the voters of the other Republican candidates, then 33% may be all the votes he will rack up in the general. This, I think, is something folks around here ought to weigh a little more carefully when responding to each other. Persuade rather than ridicule. Earn votes for your guy, don’t drive them into sitting home in the general.
You’d have to agree that part of what has so many sick and tired of politics as usual is that a candidate had been put forth that requires too many to have to have to hold their noses while voting (I know I am). If candidates are stinking up the place with their nasty or potty-mouth tactics, it is likely that voters are, once more going to go into November with the same old problem.
Will this time be the time that folks sit out election day choosing principle over expediency? We’d all better think real carefully about this before we start bombing each other and further (not saying you are doing this personally, but we both know that is the regular pattern around here).
After waking and having cup of java, I sit down to read and can’t believe the comments on most threads here on FR. Did I watch the same debate as the rest of these folks?
I saw a rabid dog come out last night. He was screaming, insulting and further more, Quite NASTY as he likes to claim others are. To me he acted
Anything but Presidential. Between his vitriol and the audience(stacked against anti-establishment) and the moderators, it was a colossal slugfest.
My stomach was turning with the added death of a great Supreme.
This is going to get worse before it shakes out.
God Bless America.
My biggest problem with Bush is that he took us into Iraq, wasted SO MUCH MONEY and SO MANY LIVES but wouldn’t let our military do their job. He played footsie with the muslims and dragged it out too long.
I don’t know if he lied or not, but he sure was wrong about the WMD.
The dems need to be banished from American history and outlawed.
No matter what GW Bush said, they were going to say the opposite.
If Bush had said there are no WMDs in Iraq, the dems would say he was in cahoots with Sadam.
If Bush had said we were not going to invade Iraq, the dems would declare he was derelict in protecting our national security.
Maybe just once, JUST ONE TIME, the dems inadvertently aligned near the truth when they said “Bush Lied, People Died”.
Question: if the rats manage to accidentally, unintentionally tell the truth, does that mean conservatives should shun such truth if it were coming from dems?
You’re right, it doesn’t feel comfortable. But when Donald Trump, and also Ben Carson, both say that the Middle East has always been ruled by dictators, that removing one or another results in destabilizing the region, should this fact be ignored because disgusting corrupt dems back it up?
I’m coming around to Donald and Ben’s view. We did lose thousands of great men in Iraq. We did spend trillions there. It was not worth it because we are not an empire and we don’t have a political system that cares to sustain a long-term occupation in foreign hostile regions unless we completely defeat the enemies (assuming we have a clear enemy) and reduce the region to complete misery and submission as was the case in WWII. We are never going to nuke Mecca unless, and perhaps, a mushroom cloud is seen over an American city.
So regardless if Bush lied, or Bush did not lie, or he lied unknowingly, fine American men did die. And in retrospect, with near 20/20 hindsight, it was not worth it.
Will this time be the time that folks sit out election day choosing principle over expediency?”
And allow Hillary to waltz in and finish off the country before your very eyes? Then you can take your principle and comfort yourself with it.
I like Trump. He fought back. It is time we had someone who will fight.
I just don’t see how anyone else is going to beat him for the nomination…what’s going to change? I think he can beat Hillary. Look at NH, he won all demographics.
Trump has the highest dislike of all of the candidates. That’s a fact, Jack. People will vote for Sanders first. He has alienated a hell of a lot of people.Including me. The country is voting for a celebrity who has an ego bigger than the grand canyon and who’s in it for himself. If that means he makes more money and goes to all of the coolest parties and you can’t see that.........
The high watermark for him was NH with 37%.
I don’t see him breaking that number once all the way thru super Tuesday. With current field it could be enough to win in several places.
Look at the long game. Trumps negatives are too high.
Would we want to risk a high negative candidate against another high negative candidate in Clinton?
In that scenario it comes down to voting mechanics on election day and the D would win.
Too much at stake to risk that.
Trump supported PP last night the mask is off the 60% negatives will rise.
Again though, Trump is leading his opponents almost everywhere by double digits…those polls were verified by NH’s real voters across the spectrum. So any argument your making against Trump must then be applied two-fold to the rest of the field.
I just made a quick check of your forum page to see where you are coming from.
About the first post I saw was one where you claim Trump was in favor of single payer, a well known lie and ploy of crazed Cruz-bots.
Can you come up with something original?
You do realize polls for the general are worthless. Reagan was DOA when he won the nomination and so will Trump.
He should not call Bush a liar or responsible for 911, but he won the rest of the debate even though he was going against the entire room.
Pray America wakes
Trump’s debate was largely because of the audience being loaded with Bush and Rubio donors, and the faux-moderators. He had to fight back and he did. Wasn’t pretty, but needed.
Can you quote all the words Trump said about PP last night?
Bush ignored warning signs of 9/11. In that way he was partially responsible. Clinton was more responsible, But Bush has some blame.
Can you quote all the words Trump said about PP last night.
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No I can’t and I have no inclination to fetch rocks for you. However a quick search found this:
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2) Trump said Planned Parenthood does “many wonderful things for women’s health” while trying at the same time to dismiss abortion. Keep in mind Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards makes this same argument in order to keep $500 million in taxpayer funding each year. The abortion giant repeatedly claims it only uses taxpayer money for women’s health, not for abortion, ignoring the fact that money is fungible.
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If you want to explain what wonderful things that Planned PArenthood does that warrants taxpayer money feel free to defend your idol. Cruz fought to defend the mass murderers Trump disagrees. Post where Trump says the taxpayers should provide any money to Planned PArenthood.
Read 109, and quote correctly.
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