Posted on 02/14/2016 12:44:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Apologies. I have no idea why I indulged myself to write so long to make such a simple point. Long story short: You can't tell people they've been flat wrong about everything for 17 years, without giving the slightest reason why they should change their entire scheme of thinking, and expect them to support you.
This was a brief line in the podcast (which we'll post tomorrow) which I expanded, for reasons I can now no longer guess, into a 1500 word exegesis on the obvious.
Just skip to the brief update.
...
The "ego" in the headline doesn't actually refer to Trump's ego, for once. Rather, it refers to the voters' egos.
I think Trump hurt himself badly tonight, enough to knock him out of his first-place standing in most states. Oh he won't completely disappear -- but 2nd Place Trump is not the same thing as Frontrunner Trump.
Trump damaged himself with his claim that Bush lied us into war in Iraq. Not botched the intelligence, not read too much into thin intelligence.
Most Republicans, I think, would agree that that.
No, Trump claimed that Bush deliberately lied us into war.
First, this is alarming because it once again demonstrates that Trump has a conspiratorial mind. It's not enough for the conspiracist to say someone was wrong -- no, they have unrealistically black/white minds, and if you made a bad call, you must have lied.
That conspiracism was always present in his claims about Obama's birth certificate. But that bit of fantasy was about Obama, someone the average Republican voter isn't exactly eager to man the battlements for.
This corker -- this Al Gore roar of quote -- is about George W. Bush, someone still looked upon with affection by most of the party.
Which brings us to the second problem.
If Donald Trump is right, and George W. Bush deliberately schemed with his neo-con advisers to "lie" us into a phony war with Iraq, what does that say about the average Republican voter who supported Bush from 1999, voted for him, defended him through the recount, cried with him on 9/11, agreed with him on Iraq, defended him from ceaseless liberal attacks on him during the war, defended him from Obama's never-expiring "Blame Bush" blame-shifting, etc.?
If Trump is right, then we're not just wrong to have supported him. If Trump's right, we're goddamned rubes and fools to have defended this Actual Hitler-Level Monster for going on 17 years now.
Everyone has an ego. Even Jeb Bush.
The first duty of every ego is to protect itself from attack.
People want to think well of themselves, and they wish to vote in a way that makes them think well of themselves. It's a critical goal in every campaign to convince the public that voting for this candidate is the Smart, Virtuous, Good thing to do, because people will vote in a way that enables them to luxuriate their egos.
That's how Barack Obama got elected. The media convinced people that they became smart and virtuous and good just by voting for this layabout pinko incompetent.
A good leader will challenge people, and that sometimes requires posing a threat to their egos. By telling someone they are wrong-- or at least aren't thinking about things quite straight --one is attacking their ego.
But someone adroit in persuasion understands when he is in fact attacking the core of someone's sense of self-worth, and does so cautiously, deploying all the reason and tactfulness he can marshal into the effort.
He attacks that person's ego to the smallest extent compatible with his goal (changing the person's mind), and offers him good reasons to change his mind.
He thus offers a lateral move, if you will, from one state of self-valuation to another. You give up on this one way of thinking, which would usually cause some psychic strain to the ego, but, on the other hand, you have been convinced of the rectitude of this other way of thinking. By moving to that new way of thinking, you gain a level of self-worth, so you're net even on the deal. (You might even gain some sense of self-worth for having been smart enough to recognize a good argument and having been openminded enough to consider it.)
It is very unpersuasive, on the other hand, to offer someone a flat contradiction of something they've long believed while offering no reason at all to accept a new replacement belief, except the assertion of it.
Abandoning the old position is damaging to one's sense of self-worth -- how could I have gotten it wrong for so long? But no easy glide-path to the new way of thinking is offered.
You sort of have to just knuckle under someone's flat assertion -- and subordinating oneself to another's claims, with no good reasons for such subordination offered, is even more hostile to the ego than being wrong.
Who wants to be someone else's Thought Bitch?
This is a long way of saying Trump specifically and completely contradicted a belief that 75-80% of Republicans have about Bush -- that he was a fundamentally decent man, perhaps overwhelmed by a very difficult period, who made an erroneous decision based on incomplete information -- and instead offered a new belief, that Bush deliberately lied about Iraq's WMD's, a position that 75-80% of Republicans have long not only rejected but have been actively hostile towards.
With no better reason to adopt this new claim other than that Donald Trump said it.
I doubt very much people will be willing to make this leap with Trump. Gathering political support is all about getting a buy-in of belief at a price that people are willing to pay (usually, a low price-- that's why politicians strain to parrot back to you things you already believe).
I think Trump, who has been a past-master at getting people to buy-in to a very low-cost premise -- "Let's Make America Great Again" -- just made a very high cost premise central to buying into him.
And I think for that reason that many people will be taking a second look at Trump -- and not in a good "second look" way. I think they'll be evaluating things they previously gave him passes on -- donations to Hilary, Reid, Pelosi, etc.; support for partial birth abortion; support for single-peer health care-- and re-evaluate those facts while keeping in mind Trump's big new premise that Republicans supported, voted for, defended, and sustained an actual war criminal who made war on a country he knew to be innocent of the claim he dishonestly profferred against it, for who knows what sinister gain.
We'll see if he tries walking this one back, and to what extent he's successful.
If it is now a part of the agenda that we actually have to buy into all the claims Gore, Pelosi, Obama, etc. made for years, I think this new agenda is going to turn out to be too highly priced for most Republican voters.
And Don't Even Get Me Started on Tribal Signaling. I was just telling someone that every campaign boils down to two four word claims:
I'M ON YOUR SIDE
HE'S NOT LIKE US
Dress it up however you like, the subconscious messaging in every election is just that.
I'm on Your side.
He's not like Us.
With just a few poorly chosen angry words, Trump declared a lot of allegiance to the enemy tribe, and essentially said "I'm not like you."
Thank you!
“the Middle East has always been ruled by dictators, that removing one or another results in destabilizing the region”
If the above is Trumps position, I’m wondering .. what kept him from stating it in such a clear way ... why on earth couldn’t he have stayed calm?
Instead, he blasted away with statements that made himself seem like a 9/11 truther, whether he is or not.
I fear for November, because with the help of the establishment, we’re going to end up with a weak candidate facing either Mrs. Bill or The Bern.
I’ll vote for Trump if is comes to that. Over Hillary or the Socialist/Communist? Are you kidding? I’ll support any Republican over those two.
But Trump looked un-presidential last night. He looked the fool. Sad to say.
You fooled me. Anyway, since you’ll vote for him, he doesn’t need to market to you (or me) and he’s not. He’s got many millions of others he needs to reach, and he won’t get there by being hard-right, and he knows it.
If this is a common trait of conspiracy theorists, it's very interesting to me. I know an otherwise brilliant young man who perfectly fits this description of black and white, and there's no room for any shades of gray for him, in anything.
He has a lot of odd theories, and this may explain one reason he won't budge from his theories ... because if he were to back down to any other explanation, and with no room for gray, he would be a liar in his own mind.
I think we just witnessed an epic final act of the Trump Campaign.
The point of the Debates is to give the Dems talking points against the GOP...for use in the General
Yeah, we want wimpy spineless cowards afraid to speak up! Give us Jeb Bush dammit!!!
Kasich couldnt deliver Ohio and Obama won their twice.
thats exactly what I tell people when they ask me about Katich. Also remember Boehner saying Ohio would vote for Romney in the latest election.
I disregarded both of them right after the W by Obama. If you can’t deliver your home state, then don’t predict a W....
JEB was a fool to invoke W’s record into this process. Poor optics.
GWB isn’t running, and I agree all Jeb does is try to ride coat tails of his dad and brother. then he mistakenly brings his mother into it.
Donald is nuking him through his family only because Jeb can’t just run as himself.
The point of the Debates is to give the Dems talking points against the GOP...for use in the General
And in that regard The Donald checkmated them
1. I was against Iraq - Hillary you were for it - Hilly Loses
2. Bush lied for whatever interpretation you want to put on it - their line, they can’t say he originated it...
Exactly
that;s the BEST explanation I’ve heard so far.
because the whole invasion defies logic otherwise.
our poor vets!!!
Trump showed he was a chump when he said the reason we went into Iraq was because of WMDs. ...Iraq had violated 17 United Nations no-nos and the UN consented on taking down Saddam’s country. ...Intelligence agencies in the US, Russia, England and other countries said there were WMDs there. ....Why does Trump use the old Democrat lie that they didn’t find WMDs, just to attack loser Bush??
When the coalition forces took over they found mobile labs that had been making the deadly gases that Saddam had used on the Kurds. They also found buried WMDs whose effective use-by dates had expired. Iraqi officers admitted to using truck convoys and cargo aircraft to transfer WMDs to Syria, some of which were used later by Assad against his opposition.
“Of course he had WMDs. We gave them to him to use against Iran. But we were told there was more than that.
we were told about mobile production facilities. we were told about active nuclear biological chemical weapon weapons programs and production facilities. we were told about links to al quaeda. we were told that he represented a clear and present danger to the US and that preemptive military was necessary. we were told the intelligence was credible. we were told we would be greeted as liberators. We were told major combat operations were over. None of it was true.
Americans were already scared to death after 9-11 and he exploited that fear to sell the war. “
EVERY single talking point has been thoroughly discredited so many times that one more by me won’t get past your skull. One question though: WHAT was Bush’s motivation? Hmmmm?
The UN authorized the US to form a coalition and take down Saddam because he had violated at least 17 resolutions and was killing his own people, including the Kurds with WMDs.
Thanks for posting the links regarding the Iraq WMDs!
Cruz damaged himself with so many lies. It was pathtic.
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I asked you on another thread to list the lies, but you apparently are unable to do so.
Repeating your mantra of “Cruz lied” during the debate, without presenting proof, is what’s pathetic.
It’s sad to watch the GOP attack it’s best possible candidate because he’s an outsider.
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But Cruz is still standing up to the Trump, Carson and GOP-e attacks!
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