Posted on 02/14/2016 12:44:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Apologies. I have no idea why I indulged myself to write so long to make such a simple point. Long story short: You can't tell people they've been flat wrong about everything for 17 years, without giving the slightest reason why they should change their entire scheme of thinking, and expect them to support you.
This was a brief line in the podcast (which we'll post tomorrow) which I expanded, for reasons I can now no longer guess, into a 1500 word exegesis on the obvious.
Just skip to the brief update.
...
The "ego" in the headline doesn't actually refer to Trump's ego, for once. Rather, it refers to the voters' egos.
I think Trump hurt himself badly tonight, enough to knock him out of his first-place standing in most states. Oh he won't completely disappear -- but 2nd Place Trump is not the same thing as Frontrunner Trump.
Trump damaged himself with his claim that Bush lied us into war in Iraq. Not botched the intelligence, not read too much into thin intelligence.
Most Republicans, I think, would agree that that.
No, Trump claimed that Bush deliberately lied us into war.
First, this is alarming because it once again demonstrates that Trump has a conspiratorial mind. It's not enough for the conspiracist to say someone was wrong -- no, they have unrealistically black/white minds, and if you made a bad call, you must have lied.
That conspiracism was always present in his claims about Obama's birth certificate. But that bit of fantasy was about Obama, someone the average Republican voter isn't exactly eager to man the battlements for.
This corker -- this Al Gore roar of quote -- is about George W. Bush, someone still looked upon with affection by most of the party.
Which brings us to the second problem.
If Donald Trump is right, and George W. Bush deliberately schemed with his neo-con advisers to "lie" us into a phony war with Iraq, what does that say about the average Republican voter who supported Bush from 1999, voted for him, defended him through the recount, cried with him on 9/11, agreed with him on Iraq, defended him from ceaseless liberal attacks on him during the war, defended him from Obama's never-expiring "Blame Bush" blame-shifting, etc.?
If Trump is right, then we're not just wrong to have supported him. If Trump's right, we're goddamned rubes and fools to have defended this Actual Hitler-Level Monster for going on 17 years now.
Everyone has an ego. Even Jeb Bush.
The first duty of every ego is to protect itself from attack.
People want to think well of themselves, and they wish to vote in a way that makes them think well of themselves. It's a critical goal in every campaign to convince the public that voting for this candidate is the Smart, Virtuous, Good thing to do, because people will vote in a way that enables them to luxuriate their egos.
That's how Barack Obama got elected. The media convinced people that they became smart and virtuous and good just by voting for this layabout pinko incompetent.
A good leader will challenge people, and that sometimes requires posing a threat to their egos. By telling someone they are wrong-- or at least aren't thinking about things quite straight --one is attacking their ego.
But someone adroit in persuasion understands when he is in fact attacking the core of someone's sense of self-worth, and does so cautiously, deploying all the reason and tactfulness he can marshal into the effort.
He attacks that person's ego to the smallest extent compatible with his goal (changing the person's mind), and offers him good reasons to change his mind.
He thus offers a lateral move, if you will, from one state of self-valuation to another. You give up on this one way of thinking, which would usually cause some psychic strain to the ego, but, on the other hand, you have been convinced of the rectitude of this other way of thinking. By moving to that new way of thinking, you gain a level of self-worth, so you're net even on the deal. (You might even gain some sense of self-worth for having been smart enough to recognize a good argument and having been openminded enough to consider it.)
It is very unpersuasive, on the other hand, to offer someone a flat contradiction of something they've long believed while offering no reason at all to accept a new replacement belief, except the assertion of it.
Abandoning the old position is damaging to one's sense of self-worth -- how could I have gotten it wrong for so long? But no easy glide-path to the new way of thinking is offered.
You sort of have to just knuckle under someone's flat assertion -- and subordinating oneself to another's claims, with no good reasons for such subordination offered, is even more hostile to the ego than being wrong.
Who wants to be someone else's Thought Bitch?
This is a long way of saying Trump specifically and completely contradicted a belief that 75-80% of Republicans have about Bush -- that he was a fundamentally decent man, perhaps overwhelmed by a very difficult period, who made an erroneous decision based on incomplete information -- and instead offered a new belief, that Bush deliberately lied about Iraq's WMD's, a position that 75-80% of Republicans have long not only rejected but have been actively hostile towards.
With no better reason to adopt this new claim other than that Donald Trump said it.
I doubt very much people will be willing to make this leap with Trump. Gathering political support is all about getting a buy-in of belief at a price that people are willing to pay (usually, a low price-- that's why politicians strain to parrot back to you things you already believe).
I think Trump, who has been a past-master at getting people to buy-in to a very low-cost premise -- "Let's Make America Great Again" -- just made a very high cost premise central to buying into him.
And I think for that reason that many people will be taking a second look at Trump -- and not in a good "second look" way. I think they'll be evaluating things they previously gave him passes on -- donations to Hilary, Reid, Pelosi, etc.; support for partial birth abortion; support for single-peer health care-- and re-evaluate those facts while keeping in mind Trump's big new premise that Republicans supported, voted for, defended, and sustained an actual war criminal who made war on a country he knew to be innocent of the claim he dishonestly profferred against it, for who knows what sinister gain.
We'll see if he tries walking this one back, and to what extent he's successful.
If it is now a part of the agenda that we actually have to buy into all the claims Gore, Pelosi, Obama, etc. made for years, I think this new agenda is going to turn out to be too highly priced for most Republican voters.
And Don't Even Get Me Started on Tribal Signaling. I was just telling someone that every campaign boils down to two four word claims:
I'M ON YOUR SIDE
HE'S NOT LIKE US
Dress it up however you like, the subconscious messaging in every election is just that.
I'm on Your side.
He's not like Us.
With just a few poorly chosen angry words, Trump declared a lot of allegiance to the enemy tribe, and essentially said "I'm not like you."
> “I feel like a fool for getting caught up in the Axis of Evil nonsense. The three leaders were evil.”
Don’t be so hard on yourself. The country had just survived 8 years of the Scumbag from Arkansas and was relieved that GW Bush was in the White House, and to think that he was a conservative, or so they thought.
> “Bush was going into Iraq no matter what was or wasn’t found and no matter what concessions were or weren’t made.”
Here’s my plausible explanation:
After Bush the Elder left office, an assassination was attempted on him while driving in a van in update NY. The assassination attempt was attributed to Sadam’s people.
GW Bush looked for any pretext to go into Iraq and execute Sadam as revenge.
He never went into Truther territory. I just checked the transcript and it confirms what I remember from the debate.
He did say “he lied,” however, then quickly corrected it to “it was based on lies.” I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on that one. Many people believe the decision was based on a British intelligence report that was later “proved” to be false, so somebody lied, but if the falsity of that intelligence report is still accepted, then it wasn’t us who lied, and it wasn’t George W. Bush.
The Trump supporters will twist themselves into all kinds of contortions to dismiss anything Trump said and keep justifying their support for him.
Cruz damaged himself with so many lies. It was pathtic.
Ted Cruz lied - “principled” died.
It’s sad to watch the GOP attack it’s best possible candidate because he’s an outsider.
The whole political show in the USA is just getting worse and worse while the network ratings rise and rise...
Do the Trump supporters really believe that when the primaries are over and say, Trump has won, that the other 60% of the voters who didn’t vote for him are really going to jump over and vote for Trump?
We’re screwed and you Trumpeteers are doing this to us.
If Bush knew Saddam had WMD, it is because George Schultz handed him the Bechtel invoice for the sale. You deal with the Devil, then the chickens come home to roost.
That was my thought at the time plus topping Saddam would serve as a warning our resoluteness to other adversaries
But like others say ...the real issue has always been Arab monarch oil cash....cash that still flows to folks who wish to destroy us....and the Arab Oil Monarchs too paradoxically
This is T E Lawrence mindset on Arabia....maybe lets rethink it
Sure was better than Gore.....but that’s a mighty low benchmark
All those horribly mutilated and brain damaged warriors on TV ads trying to reconnect with their lives and kids and wives due to incessant bombs often financed by Arab and Persian oil
Was it worth it?
Just so Bush could win daddy approval and show the world we meant business?
Eff no!
Even men far greater than George Bush make mistakes
Churchill ....South Affican family internments and Gallipoli
Bush love him or leave him represents the old GOPe patrician moderate greater good sorts
Either Trump or Cruz can defeat that and it must be defeated.....very few Trump folk here won’t ride with Cruz should he get lucky
Given the ornery nature of Cruz or nothing folks here.....I hope they come around
It’s an odd juxtaposition
Cruz speaks right mostly
Trump is less encumbered albeit less ideological but has more grit and rests less upon slick and polish like Cruz and the other politicians do
This debate format is made for them except when Trump upends it and they scream lack of decorum
It’s our process in action and this time to me at least it’s inspiring
An ideologue we like near duking it out with a firebrand can do guy with a pretty strong history of acomplishmemt
But all the media and pols can say is it’s unpresidential
In 7 months Donald J Trump has said more frank truth that most whispering politicians will utter in their entire careers
And I like that....he’s flawed and unpolished but he gets it
Immigration
Islam
Fiscal responsibility.
And now the Scalia vacuum
I’ve no doubt he’ll stay with who brought him to the dance on that
He’s in the general election with his 33% vote?
…………33%? What percentages do the other GOP candidates have right now?
I never liked DJT, but if people voted him in that was the way of things.
After hearing him call GWB a deliberate liar insinuate (for the second time ) that GWB allowed 911, after all of that it is evident to me that DJT is just a rotten SOB, who should stay on TV and away from politics.
It is also evident that DJT believes these terrible things about GWB, which, in my opinion, makes him extremely gullible - that alone disqualifies him for any political office ... The man is a character without character ... a chameleon at best.
“He’s in the general election with his 33% vote?”
Much more than any other candidate.
That's simply not true. There are three possibilities at play here and they relate to The Weapons of Mass Destruction":
1. Iraq did have the weapons and moved them to Syria before the war started.
2. Iraq did not have those weapons but the Intelligence community botched it and Bush believed them.
3. Iraq did not have those weapons and Bush new it but wanted to invade Iraq. So he lied to the American people in order to go to war.
In fact, #1 is most likely correct and it is the position of most Freepers.
Most Americans believe #2 and that is an admittedly rational position given the biased news reporting.
#3 Is the Trump/Pelosi/Reid/NYT/Gore/LAT/MSNBC/CBS/NBC/ABC position and the position of all the Dem Crazies out there.
Trump is a lunatic closet leftist and last night he proved it.
“Trump has won, that the other 60% of the voters who didn’t vote for him are really going to jump over and vote for Trump?”
Yes, that is the way it has always been. Most voters are not nearly as filled with the venom and hatred that some here are.
For the 60% of voters who did vote for Trump, there are about 80% of the voters who did not vote for his opponents.
“After hearing him call GWB a deliberate liar insinuate (for the second time ) that GWB allowed 911”
“allowed 911” as in refusing to stop it?
No. Trump did NOT say that. Has NEVER said that. It is like Jeb! coming unglued with fake rage over the fact that Trump supposedly said something negatively about his “mentor” Reagan. No, Trump had just said Reagan was a great president.
“Praises Planned Parenthood.”
No, he was referring back in time, and trying to explain why he had said what he said about PP helping women’s health, statements he made before the hideous abortion tapes came out. No one knew that was going on.
Of course, you probably understand that, just like Jeb! or whoever it was that tried to tag him with it.
“But he went into Truther territory.”
I suppose the transcripts of that debate will come out and it will reveal that he definitely did not go into truther territory.
“The whole point of the frequent and very long debate series is for the media to exhaust the Republican candidates into desperation, one against the other.”
You got that right.
Does anybody ever remember such a long & drawn out campaign with debates lasting hours?? This is absurd, the theater of the absurd.
> “The Trump supporters will twist themselves into all kinds of contortions to dismiss anything Trump said and keep justifying their support for him.”
Yeah, ain’t it wonderful? Ain’t it a bitch?
I’m sticking with the grizzly regardless of what you pussies whine about.
Life’s not fair. Get used to it.
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