Posted on 09/12/2014 10:36:44 AM PDT by dignitasnews
As the 2014 midterm races heat up Democrats across the nation are faced with the reality that they have lost the confidence of nearly every demographic group who will cast their votes in November. Recent polling indicates that women voters, a long-held Democratic Party constituency now prefer the Republican Party, leaving black Americans as the only group the Democratic Party has not lost the support of. As President Obama has suffered through historically low public support heading into his final election of consequence, he still maintains 89 percent approval ratings among African-Americans, compared to only 38 percent of all likely voters.
The biggest worry for Democratic Party strategists is the Presidents loss of support among women, 55 percent of whom disapprove of his job performance against 38 percent that approve, according to a recent Fox News poll of likely voters. This translates to increased support for GOP candidates in the November elections, with 45 percent of women indicating they will vote for the Republicans in this years House midterms, with 44 percent voting or leaning Democrat. More disturbing for Democrats, the gap grows larger in Senate races, with 47 percent of women leaning Republican with 43 percent trending Democrat.
In fact the only major demographic group in which Democrats can count on come November are black voters. 72 percent of black voters will cast votes for Democratic congressional candidates in the fall, with only 11 percent siding with the GOP. In the all-important Senate races, 15 percent of African-Americans are leaning toward Republican candidates, with 74 percent maintaining loyalty for the Democratic Party. The question for Democrats will be how to get these voters to the polls, as voter enthusiasm among blacks and all Democrats is far behind that expressed on the Republican side.
Among likely voters, 68 percent of Republicans indicated they are either "extremely or very interested" in November's elections, compared to only 52 percent of registered Democrats. This figure was slightly higher among black voters, at 54 percent, although still considerably lower than GOP enthusiasts. Among the various demographic groups included in the polling, self-identified Tea Party members showed the highest level of enthusiasm for November's elections, at 78 percent.
The poll serves as a striking rebuke of Democratic Party leadership over the past six years. While the President was swept into office amidst of wave of enthusiasm and optimism, this has turned sharply as the few Americans have seen the Obama economy benefit them personally, as despite Democratic Party talking points of battling "income inequality" data shows that only the wealthiest 10 percent have benefited from the Presidents policies, while the other 90 percent continue to find themselves struggling.
Despite this, the Democratic Party hold on the black vote remains solid. While Republicans have increased outreach efforts to African-Americans, black voters remain as loyal to the Democrats as ever. High percentages of unemployment among black workers and an increase in income gaps between whites and blacks have done little to erode confidence in the President and his party among those voters. In fact, as key indicators of success for black Americans continue to drop, loyalty to their Democratic Party leaders seems to increase. In 1964, just prior to the inception of the Democrats "Great Society" social-welfare programs, close to 40 percent of African-Americans identified themselves as Republicans and black single parent birth rates stood at 24 percent. Today nearly 70 percent of black children are born into single parent households and African-American support for Democrats averages out at 90 percent.
Much of this advantage enjoyed by Democrats has come from a strategy that emphasizes racial differences and harnessing the fears and suspicions of black Americans. In successfully arguing that America is inherently unfair and that as a consequence black progress is unlikely, they have convinced millions within this group to forgo dreams of individual success and acquiesce to mere survival and to find victories in fights against "social injustice." Democrats have also capitalized on disproportionate dependence on welfare and food stamp programs among blacks, resulting in a fear among many African-Americans that a decline in Democratic Party power would result in a loss of daily subsidence.
An interesting statistical anomaly continues to show in the Fox News polling. As has been the case in every Fox News poll over the past four years, President Obama's support among Tea Party enthusiasts is higher than that of overall Republican voters. While only eight percent of GOP voters approve of the job of the President, 13 percent of the Tea Party give him a positive mark. This is consistent with previous polling, in which there is generally a five to seven point "bump" for the President among the Tea Party, against Republican voters.
As the President deals with numerous challenges domestically and abroad, his party is largely taking the brunt of his perceived failures. With women now trending toward the GOP, Democratic Party leaders will be forced to focus on the only group they still maintain high of levels of popularity with, black Americans. Part of their strategy will be to exploit the anger and fears resulting from the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri as a way to get black voters to the polls in November. Time will tell if this strategy bears fruit, both for Democrats and African-Americans who have apparently tied their entire destiny to a party that has been viewed as corrupt and incapable by the rest of America.
Commentary by Paul M Winters Editor in Chief, Dignitas News Service
Sources:
There has been a drop in Black support for Obama and the Dems. Not big movement but noticable nonetheless.
Iirc Romney actually got something like 19% of the young Black male vote in 2012. So there is some chipping away at the margin, which if its a trend might start making a difference a couple elections down the road.
Actually, a plurality of white women have voted Republican since at least 1980.
Even young white women usually vote Republican.
In 2012, Romney beat Obama 49%-48% among young white women (age 18-29).
In sharp contrast, almost 100% of young Black women, and almost 80% of young Hispanic women, voted for Obama.
That 19% number might be a little high, but not by much.
I checked the NBC exit poll for 2012.
All Blacks (age 18-29): 8% for Romney
There was no gender data for the individual age groups.
I know that young Black women voted almost 100% for Obama, so your number is close.
Am I the only one who hears voices softly pleading?
“Help, Cecil, Help! Help, Cecil, Help!”
And they are oblivious that the responding and angry,
“I’m coming, Beanie Boy!!!” will never come!
Obama won unmarried women 67 to 31, as would any Dem, the young and the poor: leading to the conclusion Dems get all of the dumb slut vote.
(Actually I use “dumb sluts” to refer to everyone who has no sense of value and can therefor be easily manipulated. e.g.: the typical ‘dumb slut’)
Where are you getting your numbers? They’re very good.
That is the exit polling organization that all the major USA news media use for presidential and mid-term elections.
NEP has all its numbers behind a pay wall now, but I don't subscribe.
The most comprehensive 2012 exit polling that I know is still up and running is at NBC News:
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all#.Us88F4mA3ZF
Also, the “Roper Center,” “Annenberg Research,” and “Pew Research” all use a lot of NEP numbers, and they do their own polls, too.
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