Posted on 10/22/2012 7:27:45 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Friday’s Fox News poll of Ohio shows Obama leading 46/43 which is a 4 point improvement for Mitt Romney over Fox’s last poll of a month ago.
The good news for Obama stops after the headline. This leaves 11 points of “undecided” voters. History tells us 80% or 8.8 points will eventually go to the challenger giving Romney 51.8%
Fox reports Obama getting 89% of Democrats but Romney getting 85% of Republicans.
This is a very curious finding given the 92% of Republican support for Romney found in the battleground Poll which also finds Obama with 88% of Democrat support nationally.
Moreover just next door in Wisconsin Republicans are backing Romney at 92%.
It should be noted that Rasmussen reported the national Party breakdown as 36.8% Republican, 34.2% Democrat and 29% Independent.
It is important to note a report prepared by Pew and released earlier this year flatly accuses Democrats of lying about their Party affiliation. While Pew says most lying Democrats say they are Independents, the 24 point lead (52/28) Romney has among Ohio’s Independents suggests that any Democrat organized lying campaign might have been adjusted to under sample Republicans.
In 2008 Independents were 30% of the electorate in Ohio and they supported Obama 52/44. This is the same 16 point lead Romney lead with Independents… [been]… in every poll for the past 6 weeks.
The Party breakdown …skewed from reality toward liberal daydreams.
Fox used a 42/34/20 Democrat/Republican/Independent spread. In 2008 it was 39/31/30. Even accepting the 3 point increase in Republicans; the 3 point increase in Democrats and the 5 point decrease of Independents skews the results toward Obama.
“…absentee ballots in Ohio have shown a stronger enthusiasm among Republicans than Democrats. The unanimously accepted 8 to 16 point enthusiasm edge Republicans…
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
I'm going to have to find a new road atlas--mine is obviously defective.
Make sure your new ATLAS doesn't have 57 states.
Yes - it will come down to the ground game. Now is the time when we have to decide if we want to diddle around a let a Communist be re-elected, or if we can grin and bear electing a soft pseudo-conservative.
I’m not really convinced that ratios of signage mean anything. On my 40 minute commute, there are 16 Romney signs and 7 Obama signs - in a county that is almost assuredly going to give Obama greater than 75% of its vote. Even the individual precincts I drive through will probably be near that margin.
Well, they're all up there somewhere in Yankeeland, right?
How DARE you insult my beloved Bengals??? Heheheh... Ok, I guess they deserve it. They couldn't even beat the Browns.
The question is will the stupid vote this time around, I don't think they are motivated, "he" ain't cool anymore... I really wonder how many will stay home even with all the new "freebies:"...
That is so out of the realm of rationality that it becomes a problem. I hope all pollsters are seeing Ohio with a 42/34 D:R spread. That means the Republican has to be winning by an entire marathon.
That is just insane. Ohio is always close. A run-away in Ohio is a 4-6 point win by either side. The reason it's a longtime swing state is that the Ds and the Rs balance each other out.
While I agree to an extent with the premise, a quick Midwestern geography lesson.
Ohio is 2/3 states away from Wisconsin. It's the easternmost Midwestern state bordering Pennsylvania and West Virginia to the East/Southeast, Kentucky to the South, Indiana to the West, and Michigan to the north.
To get to Wisconsin from Ohio, one must either drive across Indiana to Illinois and go north from there, or drive into Michigan and either take a ship across Lake Michigan or drive around to the UP.
Ohio has been one of the quintessential swing states for years. That's nothing new.
I followed the Bengals when they first came to town. Paul Brown, Greg Cook, and the early years. I followed them through the Super Bowl era from Anderson to Esiason. Then I tried to follow the Mike Brown Bengals. It became unbearable about 5 years ago, so I pledged never to watch them regular season unless they made the playoffs 2 years in a row.
So, I hope to see them in the playoffs but that hope is fading. Well, they lost to a seriously crippled Steelers team last night. They have a star in AJ Green and only had 3 plays go to Green last night...saw that in the newspaper.
Stupider and stupider.
FWIW, whenever I rebalance a poll in Ohio, I use the 37%R/36% D number that Pew, I think, came out with earlier this summer.
That is just insane. Ohio is always close. A run-away in Ohio is a 4-6 point win by either side. The reason it's a longtime swing state is that the Ds and the Rs balance each other out.
I dunno, I'm not so convinced of that. I will grant that I'm NOT a political scientist, so my methodology may be missing something that I'm just not aware of, but when I rebalanced this poll using the Pew 37%R/36%D numbers, and adjusting Independent spread with the lead for Romney presented in the data set, I have the poll at 49.6% Romney, 42.0% Obama.
Further, when I take the usual 3:1 break of undecideds for the challenger, subtracting 2% for third parties, I project a final result of 54.4% for Romney, 43.6% for Obama.
That could just be way, way off because, as I said earlier, I'm not a political scientist, and I may just be bumbling my way around in the dark like some kind of retarded chemist-trying-to-pretend-to-be-a-political-scientist.
Nevertheless, your statement that Ohio is *always* close is not necessarily accurate. In 1988, Bush I beat Dukakis by 10.85%, and in 1984, Reagan beat Mondale by 18.76%.
Now, sure, Romney is no Ronald Reagan. BUT, Romney is pulling in Ronald Reagan-like numbers with white voters, as shown on another thread earlier. The numbers I calculated from the historical trend in GOP capture of white vote versus actual popular vote tallies projects Romney to get around 52-53% of the total popular vote, which is right in line with Gallup's numbers from the past few days, and which is ALSO around what Bush I got in the popular vote in 1988 (whose winning percentage spread in Ohio was ALSO very close to what I've projected in Ohio for Romney).
Again, maybe I'm an idiot, and I certainly grant that this can be the case, but it just seems to me that too many coincidental numbers are falling into line for my analysis to be totally off the beam. LS, any thoughts from the resident PoliSci guru?
In order for , if history is a guide - knock on wood, throwing salt, and many prayers for R, for Romney to lose OH if Obama has to be up 2 nationally.
I don’t think 3:1 Is going for Romney is anywhere near reasonable. Our walkers are reporting just under 2:1, which makes me giddy.
Alright, you’re the one there on the ground, so you know better. Still 2:1 is a great break for the challenger!
It’s fantastic. I’m hearing just UNDER 2:1, but very close. No way ZEro wins with that split.
I bet a lot of those tweeted death threats to Romney, that we have been reading about, have come from the Blue parts of Ohio. That’s the reason that the Secret Service are doing anything about them.
Agreed, that kind of split means he’s toast.
All the same, let’s pretend like the split is going AGAINST Romney, and not let up in our GOTV and information efforts!
Agreed, that kind of split means he’s toast.
All the same, let’s pretend like the split is going AGAINST Romney, and not let up in our GOTV and information efforts!
C’mon Ohio!!! Freedom is counting on you!
What about that team in Columbus?
Aren’t they on probation?
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