Poll: Former Supreme Court clerks think the mandate is done for

The Washington Post ^ | June 20, 2012 | Sarah Kliff

[2ndDivisionVet]

A new poll of 56 former Supreme Court clerks finds that 57 percent think the individual mandate will be overturned. That’s a 22-point jump from the last time the same group of clerks was surveyed, right before oral arguments. Back then, 35 percent thought the court would toss out the required purchase of health insurance.

Most of the clerks found the Supreme Court’s questioning to be more skeptical than they had expected. As one clerk put it to Purple Strategies’ Doug Usher, who conducted the research, “I feel like a dope, because I was one of those who predicted that the Court would uphold the statute by a lopsided majority…it now appears pretty likely that this prediction was way off.”

That seems to capture the mood of the rest of the country, too...

[CitizenUSA]

I think the mandate will be overturned, too. The big deal is whether the rest of Obamacare survives. I’m guessing that was the topic for the most heated SCOTUS internal discussions. Personally? I don’t see how this house of cards can stand if its foundation is ripped out.

To my knowledge, Congress did not include a severability clause. Yet, they routinely put serverability clauses in other legislation. Meaning: it was intentionally left out. At least that should be a reasonable interpretation.

Secondly, Obamacare only works if healthy people are forced to participate. Otherwise, the other mandates won’t be funded as intended. How else can the insurance pools afford to cover uninsured people who join only after they’re sick?

[Michael.SF.]

I feel like a dope, because I was one of those who predicted that the Court would uphold the statute by a lopsided majority

Sounds like a future conservative.

[I see my hands]

The left has a plan should the ruling be unfavorable to them. What does the right have? I'd expect meek acceptance.

[nutmeg]

ping

[tsowellfan]

I think the Obama Admin has something up their sleeve even if the mandate is overturned. They seem a whole lot less concerned over the last week or so than they were before. I think they figured something out. Perhaps an EO or something like that. It does not have to be legal in Obamas eyes. The ends justify the means.

[tsowellfan]

The left has a plan should the ruling be unfavorable to them.

I agree with you. I can sense it. Perhaps it's because they mysteriously have gone silent on the issue and it was just after announcing they would look for a way to save it if the decision is unfavorable. They're no longer talking about it and seem less concerned now.

[BuckeyeTexan]

SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES

FReepmail me to subscribe to or unsubscribe from the SCOTUS ping list.

[Hostage]

The individual mandate (IM) was always a head fake, a red herring.

Obama never cared for the IM, his people wanted a massive tax increase from the beginning but they could not package the legislation as a tax increase.

In Title IX of the Act there are Revenue provisions. These are taxes on incomes and taxes on Employer Sponsored health Plans (ESHPs), as well as myriad other taxes.

The taxes on ESHPs are 40% above a certain value. The ‘value’ is determined by the government and the level is arbitrary. IOW the fed government has the power to force employers to abandon ESHPs.

The taxes on incomes are small and apply to incomes > 200k but these taxes will grow as they always do.

Severability was not included because to have done so would have invited an analysis of whether the plan would work with severability and they were touting the IM was essential which it is not because the taxes in Title IX can be expanded and amended at midnight until they have the massive tax and control that they were after.

This is a poker game and the dems are good at it.

Pelosi said we would have to read the Bill to see what was in it. Well we have and we know it’s a massive tax increase to be rolled out in the next 5 years.

And the awful reality is that Romney if elected will follow through with the tax provisions of Obamacare and he will increase them.

It’s been known since 1996 and before that the USA has to raise tax rates to 86% to meet entitlement obligations. Nearly all legislation coming out now is driven by NWO persons to avoid the US insolvency by cleverly passing tax increases. This is the motivation behind Obamacare, not anything to do with health care.

[maddog55]

I think we won’t know until the decision is read othrwise it’s a guessing game much like the weather.. supposed to be nice tomorrow but it could rain.

[John W]

And, if SCOTUS throws the whole thing out, what then?

[wita]

How else can the insurance pools afford to cover uninsured people who join only after they’re sick?

They cannot, and anyone with a brain knows it.

Just as after the accident automobile insurance would be unaffordable if not already unavailable, it should be easy to understand why after the sickness insurance has not been available, until democrats have demanded and mandated that it be so. That said, still doesn’t make it so.

[dps.inspect]

Then a Republican Congress and POTUS “improve” health care in America, not “fix it”, by crafting legislation that addresses segments of the industry, and passing bills the old fashioned way; bipartisan and free market.

[samtheman]

The individual mandate (IM) was always a head fake, a red herring.

The dems are so good at that game. Like how they put taxpayer funded abortions in the bill just so they could get everyone fighting over that and when that gets pulled then a few mis-guided pseudo-conservatives with all the brains god gave a gnat could declare "now, with this victory, I can support this bill".

The dems are good at playing the "conservatives" in this country (not real conservatives, but those who think they are and don't even understand what the word actually means) like a fiddle.

[databoss]

i agree with you...obama thinks his “defy congress once a week” strategy is a winner in the ballot box

[submarinerswife]

What of the “severability clause”? Since the Dems inserted it into the bill they could have shot themselves in the foot but that decision is just as important. They could throw the entire bill out.

I would love to see that happen.

[uncbob]

Polls mean nothing

[sport]

Polls don't mean squat. I hope that the Supreme Court will overturn the law, but I expect them to uphold it.

But our problems as a Nation have nothing to do with either obama or obamacare. It has to do with voters who elect and re-elect individuals such as Bill Clinton,Hillary Clinton, obama, and Jimmy Carter. Instead of being educated to think and fend fro themselves, the population is being indoctrinated toward slavery. And most [about 99%] do not know or care that this is happening.

[jaydee770]

And the awful reality is that Romney if elected will follow through with the tax provisions of Obamacare and he will increase them.

I'm thinking whether or not Romney will repeal, let-stand as-is or extend Obamacare will depend entirely upon the collective desire of the congressional majority.

I doubt anyone views Romney him as a political risk-taker that ignores the legislature and goes out on limbs all by his lonesome. Seriously, the guy sticks his finger in the wind and goes whichever way it blows him. I can't imagine the boob making *ANY* demands of congress that are not pre-negotiated with congressional leaders. Whenever he acts tough, it will be purely for show. I think you are crediting him with *FAR* larger cojones than he has ever previously indicated.

I guess the bottom line is: Regardless of how you intend to vote (or not) for President, make darn sure you vote down-ticket.