Posted on 01/31/2012 7:43:35 PM PST by rbmillerjr
The Clear Conservative Path To GOP Nomination
(Graphic Here)
Romney had a big victory in Florida, but it wasn't as big as Fox News and the Establishment want to persuade conservatives:
1. Florida Delegates were only 50 versus 100, due to Florida violating Primary rules.
2. Ron Paul didn't campaign in Florida
3. Santorum had personal affairs to tend to and campaigned little in Florida and went to Nevada.
The Path (Click Here)
These factors lead to a bigger percentage win for Romney, which the GOP Establishment will play up as a huge victory. It's not a huge victory, it's a big victory.
There are also two Critical Factors that will neutralize Romney's new momentum.
1. The majority of future states are proportional states, meaning he will split most states with Gingrich, Santorum and Paul.
2. The combined conservative vote of Gingrich and Santorum; and economic conservative/libertarian vote of Ron Paul is much more than Romney's ability to rack up large percentage wins.
At present levels of Delegates plus factoring in the present levels of support (Gingrich winning in both Missouri and Ohio and Santorum and Paul maintaining levels of support around 15%) this Primary is going to the Convention.
It is not possible under current support assumptions for Romney to get the 50% of all the Delegates he needs to win under the Republican Primary rules. It is possible for Gingrich, Santorum and Paul to agree to prevent the Liberal Romney from winning.
A Conservative Deal is not that far fetched. Why would Gingrich, Santorum or Paul sway their Delegates to RINO Romney. We could have a conservative President, Vice President, and high level Cabinet position for the third place candidate.
It's not grandiose, it's very practical. The top Delegate finisher is President and 2nd place finisher is Vice President of the United States.
The pitfalls are twofold: 1) Fox and GOP-E persuade conservatives that it is over and voters stay away, giving 2) One of the three bolts to Romney. There is no valid reason for any of the three to bolt to Romney if the are Principled conservatives.
This arrangement, The Conservative Deal would embolden a new Conservative Alliance that hasn't been seen since Reagan managed to bring in Economic, Social, and National Security conservatives. This Alliance could bring all three plus bring in the young economic libertarians as part of a lasting Coalition.
This arrangement would be a nail into the coffin of Obama and a stake to the heart of the RINO Establishment of the GOP.
As an American citizen Rick S has the right to run for POTUS
But I wish he would reconsider about this time
He cant win...
If he drops out now and endorses Newt he will put himself in a great spot to run in a few years...
Id think about voting for him then...
and Im sure he would have the backing of Newt as past POTUS etc...
which would be invaluable for him then...
“Newt’s failure to have a strong organization and the money he needs, is why he is loosing.”
LOL...he is not loosing. He’s finishing a commanding 2nd.
Guess what...Myth doesn’t have the means to get 50% of the Votes/Delegates.
Conservative vote still dominates, even with Santorum and Paul not campaigning in Florida.
It’s a HUGE problem for Romney and GOP Central knows it, which is why they are forcing him to spend/saturate the airwaves with lies and attack ads.
The Establishment had to propagandize that Romney is inevitable....
The Truth is that it is just the opposite. He is blocked.
Mitt has put together a plan, an organizartion and the funding to win it all. I’m not a supporter, I’m just saying that we are fools if we think anyone can beat him at this game. Let’s focus on the House and Senate instead. Let’s get some conservatives elected. Leave Romney to play out his game. We have other fish to fry.
I agree Nana...but he isn’t going to get out...thus my scenario.
Whether he cuts a deal now and endorses Gingrich...or finishes 2nd and it goes to the Convention ...which it will, Romney has no path....I see Santorum ending up in 2 and getting the VP nod.
Reality though is that he won’t get out.
If you don’t have a strong organization and money, you will never win an election. Newt’s failure to have a strong organization and the money he needs, is why he is loosing. That is how things work. Nothing sinister about it.
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Kid that means nothing
If it was so why then did your Willie Mitty not win in SC ???
I was in SC in 2008 the week leading up to the election
Willie had “a strong organization and money”
FRed had “a strong organization and money”
Ron Paul had “a strong organization and money”
McCain had a mess..
But McCain won...
Oh noez
What you say is not true.
The Path is Clear to put a Conservative in the WH.
Romney can’t get half the Delegates to win.
We can have a conservative in the WH and increase our House lead and take the Senate.
The Synergy of Gingrich’s experience, accomplishments and vision, with Santorum’s strong Social Conservative base...adding in Ron Paul’s economic libertarians...would absolutely REENERGIZE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
I have been out of it for a few days, I am wondering, since this is at such a high water mark these days, did Rush Limbaugh do any kind of endorsement in this race, either direct or implicit? I did hear that his brother, David, did endorse. Anyone can bring me up to speed?
Can Willy buy his votes?
Willy-Boy, Willy-Boy.
Can Willy buy his votes?
Charming Willy.
He can buy a lot of votes,
In a twinkling of an eye.
But he’s cool shark,
And cannot leave his Pac Men.
He is totally beatable. FL is not a bellwether for GOP politics. SC is. It is meaningless to me that he won there and there are so many states left, there is little reason to abandon hope now. Mittens had over half of GOP voters go against him after spending so much time and money. He is damaged goods. I will start to panic when Milt breaks 50% of the base vote in these elections.
I heard it reported (I think by Newt?!) that George Soros has actually stated that there is no difference in his mind between Romney and Obama.
Rush hasn’t endorsed. He’s been guarded about who he supports but I think he did a very nuanced attack on Gingrich from the time period right after Newt’s big win in SC up until a few days ago.
For several days his 3 hours consisted of continual reading and playing the recordings of audio attacks on Newt....
with responses like...”It’s true...this is a devastating attack from Abrams...etc etc”
Not a few freepers have soured on him. I find it amazing in such a crucial election that he is not coming out and attacking Mittens more...he claims he critiqued all the candidates...but his fine dance was with machette heels imo.
Some disagree, but Rush has never been a reporting journalists, he’s always weighed in at crucial junctures.
i believe they will yes ... sigh
I just want to say one thing, and it’s not against Gingrich, for anybody.
It’s funny though that up until 4 hours ago, all we heard at FR was how evil Santorum was for staying in the race, and that if just he and Paul could drop out, conservatives could rally around Gingrich.
Now what do we here, how great it was that with 4 people in the race, Romney was unable to break 50% — something he would have done if Santorum wasn’t in the race.
It would be nice to see at least one Gingrich supporter have the guts to thank Santorum for preventing a clear majority win for Romney, something that would have been devastating. Instead, I see more vitriol and rancid hatred around in other threads.
And I guess it would be entirely too much to expect that at least one of the Gingrich supporters who blasted Santorum and his supporters, claiming that if Santorum dropped out, Gingrich would win, could apologize for attacking Santorum and his supporters, now that they see that Santorum and Gingrich together didn’t get enough votes to beat Romney.
But I don’t expect either to happen, just more brazen attacks — not on Romney, the supposed target we are trying to beat, but against a conservative, Santorum, and the conservatives who support him.
BTW, I should have said I think your suggestion is useful. It certainly is one possibility, that by backing whichever conservatives can win delegates in each contest, we acheive a brokered convention with conservatives holding a majority of the delegates.
If that were true, that would be a pretty ignorant thing for them to do, given that it wasn’t that hard to register, and it clearly was important to vote.
I find it hard to believe that real tea party people, who are more politically savvy than most, would deliberately take themselves out of the nomination process.
He refused today to say who he was voting for.
I don’t think that a candidate with the kind of baggage Gingrich has can win. As for Santorum I don’t think he’s ready on anything but social issues. Obama would make mince meat out of both of them in a debate.
rbmillerjr: “The best way to win this nomination is for the three to work together in the end.”
From your post to their ears. If Newt, Santorum, and Ron Paul cooperate, each should be able to get some of what they want. The three already have compatible positions on plenty of issues. The real problem with that is likely to be Ron Paul who doesn’t appear capable of compromise. After all, his political reputation rests in part on not surrendering his principles. I wonder if the campaigns are discussing any of this. Romney is the liberal to beat, and he’s a shoe-in if the other three continue the infighting.
Charles, I think the attacks between supporters of Gingrich and Santorum are just a natural consequence of what is going on in the campaign.
Each supporter thinks his or hers candidate is the best option.
BTW, the same day Santorum gave his concession speech in Nevada re: Florida (where he castigated the Romney/Gingrich attack cycle, Santorum is running an attack ad out in Nevada on Gingrich.
So, these attacks on each other are going to continue, Romney opened up the can of worms in Iowa. Point being, hard to rage on supporters for going back and forth when the candidates are doing it to each other.
Also, I think it’s obvious that Mitts saturation attacks are pointed to Gingrich only.
Santorum has gotten a free ride in this Romney campaign. Not being argumentative regarding your point, just giving an explanation for what is going on.
“I don’t think that a candidate with the kind of baggage Gingrich has can win. As for Santorum I don’t think he’s ready on anything but social issues. Obama would make mince meat out of both of them in a debate.”
Politics and baggage go hand in hand. See Clinton. Romney has policy baggage of his Governance record, Paul has baggage of his connections to racists in his past and his foreign policy,
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