Posted on 12/30/2011 1:36:24 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Evangelicals are in a civil war in Iowa. If they could unite behind a candidate, they could defeat Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the Iowa caucuses, but they can’t. Part of the problem is that three candidates are running for evangelical support but Iowa simply isn’t big enough for the three of them. They’re splitting the vote. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum are all making a play for the social conservatives they need to propel them onward. In 2008, sixty percent of the participants in the Iowa caucuses were evangelical.
Eight days ago Rick Santorum won the personal endorsements of two evangelical leaders—Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader, and Chuck Hurley, President of the Iowa Family Policy Center. The endorsements may have been just enough to push Santorum up in the polls—at Bachmann’s expense. Vander Plaats asked Bachmann to drop out and endorse one of the social conservatives.
The Bachmann team is simply imploding with the defection of a top aide to the Ron Paul camp. She herself has said that it would take nothing less than a “miracle” to win. When you have to keep insisting that you aren’t dropping out—it may be time to drop out. Look to Bachmann to exit stage left after Iowa. The question becomes who will she endorse.
Three new polls—today’s NBC/Marist poll, yesterday’s Rasmussen poll, CNN/Time/ORIC poll—show Santorum moving into third place. This is good new for Santorum. Conservative Republican candidates tend to out-perform in Iowa while moderate Republican candidates tend to under-perform. If this holds, Santorum is effectively in a three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. He is the only one of the candidates to visit all ninety-nine of Iowa counties.
Unlike Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansa,s to whom he is frequently compared, Santorum is a northeasterner, a Pennsylvanian. His appeal may be limited beyond working-class Catholics and Midwestern evangelicals. He’s at 2.7% in South Carolina. Moreover, even if Santorum were to win Iowa—a big if—he has essentially no money and no organization in any other state.
Expect to see Rick Perry start a media blitz against Rick Santorum, which, indeed, he has already begun, releasing a radio ad. If Bachmann drops out, Santorum is all that stands between Perry and winning evangelical voters. Rick Santorum spent sixteen years in office, after all, and that leaves a paper trail.
Despite his social conservative bona fides, Santorum was anything but a fiscal conservative, as Erick Erickson points out over at Red State.
* He supported steel tariffs in Pennsylvania….
* He supported No Child Left Behind.
* He supported the prescription drug benefit.
* He supported the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, according to Club for Growth, “Santorum had the audacity to vote to continue funding the Bridge to Nowhere rather than send the money to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.”
Those kind of attack ads write themselves, and you can be sure that Barack Obama will rest at nothing to mention Santorum’s support for the Bridge to Nowhere over the blacks who suffered in Katrina.
Santorum stands ready to defend those earmarks, but calls his voting in favor of a new drug entitlement a “mistake.” Santorum was crushed in his re-election bid by eighteen points in 2006.
I think that Perry would be leading now had he not a had a few disastrous debates. If he’s still standing against Milt in Pa, I’d vote for him. Bob
Why? He is the only one gaining traction against Mittens and Paul right now. If anyone should reevaluate their value in this race is Bachmann. She is falling apart. Perry isn't looking so hot now and he is flush with cash.
I think that Rick Santorum is the most genuinely Christian of the whole bunch.
As for not moving the Bridge to Nowhere funds to NOLA, NOLA got larger federal subsidies than any other catastrophe I can think of, even though the damage was largely their fault.
And this: “Santorum was anything but a fiscal conservative, as Erick Erickson points out over at Red State. . . . He supported steel tariffs in Pennsylvania. . . .”
Well, I happen to think that if we had retained some of our tariffs—not high ones, but moderate—we wouldn’t have lost so damned many jobs overseas, and we wouldn’t be so dependent on foreign countries for vital products and supplies, including military supplies. It’s not as if it’s really free trade, since it is biased against us in almost every respect.
One-world “free” trade biased against us is conservative? Who knew?
Actually, the numbers that will be reported from the Iowa caucuses will be from a non-binding straw vote. No national delegates to the GOP convention will be selected by the caucuses either.
Caucuses select delegates to the later 99 county conventions, and to the state convention, and the caucuses begin the work of compiling a party platform.
Perry might drop out if he lands 5th, 6th or 7th.
I just watched a segment on Fox , “Perry quietly inching up in the Iowa Polls.” He’s the one to watch to finish in the top three, IMO, and he has the money and the organization to continue in the race.
Evangelicals are in a civil war in Iowa. If they could unite behind a candidate, they could defeat Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the Iowa caucuses, but they can’t.
Bump
I believe we agree, the results are irrelevant, and ar an embarrassment to the State. Or they should be embarrassed by this mess.
What mess? It’s just Iowa neighbors having a coffee klatch. Not Iowa’s fault that the rest of the country goes nuts.
Santorum is a big mistake. The man does not understand freedom as well as he understands morality. Morality can be used as a sharp spear against the constitution...what’s left of it, anyway.
It’s like Sarah Palin getting angry that the Supremes overturned a state law which banned protests at military funerals as hate speech. She was right that protesting a funeral is hate speech; but she did not grasp that if the state could squash hate speech she rejects, socialists would run a bull dozer through that power and squash most of Palin’s Christian/moral speech, which they classify as hate.
Conservatives have to be able to think like lawyers or excellent chess players when seeking power and solutions.
Bottom line is we have FOUR good conservatives (Newt, Perry, Michele, Santorum) splitting the votes amongst themselves versus one liberal (Willard) and one nutjob (Paul).
Yeh, if it wasn't for you, Willard would have won the nomination last time thus fulfilling the white horse prophecy!!!! Shame on you for winning Iowa./s
Yes. Because we need to ensure all GOP voters in this country have only backstabbing RINOs to pick from before the primaries even start.
I think Huck was asking Iowans if they missed him. (No doubt, he’d be at a Hucka-35% now as before MINIMUM and demolishing the field again thanks to Iowan Conservatives and Evangelicals - Smart folks!)
You from Iowa? One of the Romney or McCain counties? Just asking..(I worked in all 99 in ‘07-’08.)
LOL!
Zing.
I'm among those who've wondered aloud why Bachmann hasn't attacked Romney the way she has all the conservatives. My sense is that she's been running to be Romney's VP.
I'm guessing she'll endorse Romney. Her "excuse" to her conservative supporters will be that "Mitt is most likely to win." or some other such nonsense.
I'm officially on record now saying that a vote for Bachmann is a wasted vote. I wish Perry and Santorum and Gingrich weren't splitting the vote in Iowa, but they are. Neither the Perry or Gingrich camp seem to believe they'll do better than 3-5 place.
We should deny Iowa to Romney and push Santorum. Iowans must know that a vote for Paul doesn't say "protest". It says "naive".
Ding ding ding ding -My choice! :)
Why? FOUR straight balanced budgets (remember those?), welfare reform, 11 million NEW jobs, and about 4% (beats 8-9% everyday!) unemployment under Speaker Newt.
Social conservatives had Bachmann and Santorum, why did Perry have to show up?
Perry also speaks in simple sound bites, you can see that he is being spoon fed these bubba bait lines.
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