George Will: Deporting All Illegal Immigrants Is Never Going To Happen

Mediaite ^ | July 3, 2011 | Matt Schneider

[ICCtheWay]

Republicans do not need to increase Hispanic voter share... There were about 50 million American Citizens who did not vote in 2008 — many were white people ... Republicans need to quit worrying about something they cannot change. It is a flawed and false concept that Hispanics will determine the outcome of any coming election... Lazy Republican just need to quit hating Conservatives and embrace the Conservatives who make up 40 percent of the voting public...

Republican Formula to win - quit pissing off Conservatives or discouraging them or both as in 2008 with Juan McLame

And - Arouse a large percentage who did not vote in 2008 to get out and vote Republican

Many Conservatives sat out the 2008 elections because McCain was pushed down our throats and Conservatives were belittled at every turn

In 2012 if Conservatives are treated the same way - with a Liberal Republican candidate - we will sit it out again. Despite the consequences ... The Republican Establish just never seems to learn the real lesson and just keep trying to kiss the Hispanic Butt — Hispanics and Blacks WILL NEVER VOTE REPUBLICAN in enough numbers to make a different no matter how much Butt Kissing is done.

[Gaffer]

If Obama's Democrat supporters, at least the citizen ones, were to ever realize that these illegals, their children, grand parents, parents, inlaws, etc. would be the ones keeping them from getting their next government handout, they'd sure as hell scream DEPORT THEM ALL.

It is the job of our CONSERVATIVES in Congress to make that deprivation happen (I won't use the term Republican anymore).

[boop]

Oh hispanics will vote republican, just that for every one who does, there are 3 or 4 who will vote dem. That’s why I despise republican pandering on “immigration reform”. They will NEVER vote as a majority for repubs.

[kabar]

Republicans do not need to increase Hispanic voter share

In the short run, you are correct. The more likely prospect is that the Rep share of that vote will decrease not increase. In 2008, if John McCain had received 60 percent [vice 55 percent] of the “white vote,” he would have won even if Barack Obama had received the entire Hispanic vote. Credible surveys indicate that the major policy concerns of Hispanics/Latinos were no different than the concerns of non-Hispanics/Latinos. The economy and jobs topped the list. There is little evidence that immigration policy was an influential factor in Hispanics’/Latinos’ choice between the two candidates once basic party predispositions are taken into account. The size of the Latino voting population should be kept in perspective alongside other subsets of the electorate. An estimated 11.8 million voters were of Latino ancestry, compared with 17 million African Americans, 19.7 million veterans, 23.6 million young people, 45 million conservatives, and 34 million born-again white Christians.

Republicans are deluded if they believe that altering their views on immigration and amnesty will win them more Hispanic votes. Ronald Reagan signed a “one-time” amnesty in 1986, but that did not change the fact that the majority of Hispanics still vote Democrat. The reality is that historically the majority of immigrants, not only Hispanics, vote Democrat. Unless the Republican Party can slow down the immigration numbers, it will be the permanent minority party or become just another wing of the Democrat Party.

The Democrats have used the rapidly changing demographics of this country, the product of immigration, to stampede many Republican politicians and elites to conclude that the party must “adapt or die” as Michael Barone stated on the issue of immigration. The leaders of extremist Hispanic ethnic groups trumpet their growing political power and cite the Bureau of Census projections that by 2050, one in 3 residents of this country will be Hispanic. The problem is that if the Republican Party does adapt to become more like the Democrat Party, it will die.

Bureau of the Census: An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury

The Democrats created the artificial category of “Hispanics” in the 1970s as a way to create another class of victims, which they could imbue with special rights and privileges, including affirmative action and minority business set asides. The result is another minority group that votes Democrat. It doesn’t matter that, according to the Census Bureau, 51 percent of Hispanics self-identify themselves as white [54% according to Pew.] The Census Bureau has even created the phony category of “non-Hispanic whites,” which are now 66 percent of the population and will be 50 percent in 2039. The reality is that “whites” will still be more than 70 percent of the population in 2039.

That said, Hispanics are becoming a permanent underclass similar to blacks. The Hispanic out of wedlock birth rate is 50%, second only to blacks, and the high school dropout rate is higher than 50% more than blacks. Children from single family households without an education form the social pathology of failure in this country. It also forms a class more dependent upon government, which translates into more Democrat voters.

Hispanic Family Values? Runaway illegitimacy is creating a new U.S. underclass."

"Unless the life chances of children raised by single mothers suddenly improve, the explosive growth of the U.S. Hispanic population over the next couple of decades does not bode well for American social stability. Hispanic immigrants bring near–Third World levels of fertility to America, coupled with what were once thought to be First World levels of illegitimacy. (In fact, family breakdown is higher in many Hispanic countries than here.) Nearly half of the children born to Hispanic mothers in the U.S. are born out of wedlock, a proportion that has been increasing rapidly with no signs of slowing down. Given what psychologists and sociologists now know about the much higher likelihood of social pathology among those who grow up in single-mother households, the Hispanic baby boom is certain to produce more juvenile delinquents, more school failure, more welfare use, and more teen pregnancy in the future."

Republicans need to quit worrying about something they cannot change. It is a flawed and false concept that Hispanics will determine the outcome of any coming election

If we don't change our immigration policies, the die is cast. The Reps will become the permanent minority party. 87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2039, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.

The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 80 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the world’s third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.977 percent (2010 estimate), principally due to immigration.

The electoral consquences are inescapable. Professor Jim Gimpel, University of Maryland, has done a study (linked below) showing the correlation between immigration and voting in the 50 largest and 100 largest counties in America. I can tell you from first hand knowledge that the changing demographics of Northern Virginia have turned it into a Democrat stronghold. 28% of the population of Fairfax County, the largest county in the state, is foreign born and now goes Democrat since the Kerry race in 2004.

Immigration, Political Realignment, and the Demise of Republican Political Prospects

The Hispanic vote is largely concentrated in several states, but that is changing. The Hispanic vote is changing states like Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. If you don't think that the Hispanic vote can't change elections, look at California. By 2050, the US will have a similar demographic makeup, i.e., one third of the population of CA is Hispanic and one in four residents of the state is foreign born.

And - Arouse a large percentage who did not vote in 2008 to get out and vote Republican Many Conservatives sat out the 2008 elections because McCain was pushed down our throats and Conservatives were belittled at every turn

No Rep would have beaten Obama in 2008. The legacy of Bush and his low approval ratings would have damned any GOP candidate. No one wanted a third Bush term. And the fact that we nominated the worst possible candidate, McCain, just made the result that much worse.

The Democrats believe that demography is on their side. Read Ruy Teixeira's Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties to understand how the Dems view how they will become the permanent majority party. The numbers are sobering because they basically are correct.

[TBP]

Cut them off anyway.

[TBP]

The first one to deport is Soros.

[2ndDivisionVet]

“Deport” him? I’d do more than that!

[ICCtheWay]

You can cite all the demographics you wish ... bottom line... as long as the Establishment Republicans cherish Hispanics MORE than Conservatives - then Republicans will lose... Over the next thirty years at least... courting Hispanics based on their concern for illegal aliens is JUST PLAIN STUPID...

All I can say - if the Aloof Republican Establishment - the RNC and certain elected officials and other big time donors — KEEP DISSING Conservatives - then we can expect that obama will be re-elected. Personally - I will NOT contribute a dime to any Republican candidate who is NOT a Conservative -— and I will not go vote for a Republican Candidate unless they are a TRUE Principled Conservative. The Republican Establishment will learn the hard lesson - or it will be their downfall... A Third Party will arise if Conservative keep getting pushed aside — and Screw the Minority vote ... Idiot Republicans will NEVER realize that that getting the so called Minority vote (blacks and Hispanics) is NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN... Better to focus on getting 10 to 20 percent of the 50 million who DID NOT VOTE in 2008... Personally I consider the leadership of the Republican Party to be as bad as obama.

[kabar]

You can cite all the demographics you wish ... bottom line... as long as the Establishment Republicans cherish Hispanics MORE than Conservatives - then Republicans will lose... Over the next thirty years at least... courting Hispanics based on their concern for illegal aliens is JUST PLAIN STUPID...

I said just that. Did you comprehend what I wrote?

Personally I consider the leadership of the Republican Party to be as bad as obama.

If the Reps don't change our immigration policies, this country is finished. We are being colonized by the Third World. As I said before, we are going to lose this country thru the ballot box. We are being overwhelmed by the sheer numbers. Look what is happening in North Carolina. That is becoming a purple state like VA. Demography is destiny. It is happening in Europe as well.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

George Will: Deporting All Illegal Immigrants Is Never Going To Happen

No but then, stopping all murders is never going to happen, catching all rapists is never going to happen, all politicians will never be tarred and feathered but they are all worthy goals and should be pursued.

Then how did President Eisenhower do it?

He didn't. But you don't have to. You make it hard to be here and a number will leave. Make it hard to get in and many will not come. Then you can deport the ones you find.

The number of those you don't find will be small and manageable.

[ICCtheWay]

No Demography is not destiny ... not at least for the next 30 years... Arousing 10-20 percent of the 50 million AMERICANS who did not vote in 2008 is the answer that you chose to ignore... again and again ...

Allowing true / actual Conservatives to rise to the fore in Republican Presidential nominations is the answer... and that excludes most of the ‘chosen’ few that the RNC would love to see run...

I say again - if the Republicans keep slapping down the 40% of American voters - CALLED CONSERVATIVES then they will become a NON PARTY... and currently the ELITIST REPUBLICANS are doing just that ... and will not stop.

For the 2012 Elections - courting Hispanics and Blacks is a WASTE of time that the Republican Party should just GET OVER.

[kabar]

No Demography is not destiny ... not at least for the next 30 years... Arousing 10-20 percent of the 50 million AMERICANS who did not vote in 2008 is the answer that you chose to ignore... again and again ...

I am not ignoring anything. The demographic changes that have happened over the last 40 years have electoral consequences. In 1970, one in 21 was foreign born in this country. Hispanics made up 1% to 2% of the population. Today, one in 8 is foreign born and 16% of the population is Hispanic. Add the 14% black population and the 5% Asian population and you have a growing Democrat constituency that supports the welfare state.

I provided you the data from the 25 largest counties in America that show how Reps are losing power and influence over the past 10 years. Your mythological 50 million conservative whites who did not vote in 2008 are not going to save the day. 130 million Americans voted in 2008 compared to 120 million in 2004. Obama received 10 million more votes than Kerry in 2004 and McCain 3 million less than Bush in 2004.

You are in a state of denial about the demographic impact that immigration and minority birth rates are having on the electoral process. The Census Bureau states, "The non-Hispanic, single-race white population is projected to be only slightly larger in 2050 (203.3 million) than in 2008 (199.8 million). In fact, this group is projected to lose population in the 2030s and 2040s and comprise 46 percent of the total population in 2050, down from 66 percent in 2008." We don't have 20 to 30 years to regain control of this country.

Allowing true / actual Conservatives to rise to the fore in Republican Presidential nominations is the answer... and that excludes most of the ‘chosen’ few that the RNC would love to see run...

It is not a matter of allowing. Unless the Conservatives can muster the votes and influence, that is not going to happen. The 2010 election results should have sent a clear signal to the Republican establishment, especially the Tea Party movement, which I am deeply involved in here in VA. If the GOP establishment fails to get the message, there will be a third party movement. Conservatives are not going to hold their noses to vote for some one who does not represent their values. A third party movement will more than likely guarantee a victory for the Dems in the short term at least.

For the 2012 Elections - courting Hispanics and Blacks is a WASTE of time that the Republican Party should just GET OVER

Couldn't agree more. I have been telling Reps from Cantor to local GOP functionaries that we should be going after white, blue collar workers. Conservatives have a golden opportunity to take advantage of the Democrat’s abandonment of the American worker. By increasing the supply of labor between 1980 and 2000, immigration reduced the average annual earnings of native-born men by an estimated $1,700 or roughly 4 percent. Among natives without a high school education, who roughly correspond to the poorest tenth of the workforce, the estimated impact was even larger, reducing their wages by 7.4 percent. Conservatives need to target blue collar Democrats using immigration as a wedge issue. American jobs for American workers.

Instead, both parties are controlled by corporate elites. They have become disconnected from most of the the electorate.

[kabar]

From Teixiera's report I provided to you:

Heavily Democratic minority voters (80 percent for Obama) increased their share of votes in U.S. presidential elections by 11 percentage points between 1988 and 2008, while the share of increasingly Democratic white college graduate voters rose 4 points. But the share of white working-class (not college-educated) voters, who have remained conservative in their orientation, has plummeted by 15 points.

That’s a pattern that’s repeated in state after state, helping send those states in a Democratic direction. In Pennsylvania, for example, the white working class declined by 25 points between 1988 and 2008, while white college graduates increased by 16 points and minorities by 8 points. And in Nevada, the white working class is down 24 points over the same time period, while minority voters are up an amazing 19 points and white college graduates by 4 points.

These trends will continue, and the United States will be majority-minority nation by 2042. By 2050, the country will be 54 percent minority as Latinos double from 15 percent to 30 percent of the population, Asian Americans increase from 5 percent to 9 percent, and African Americans move from 14 to 15 percent.

Other demographic trends accentuate Democrats’ advantage. The Millennial generation (those born between 1978 and 2000) is adding 4 million eligible voters to the voting pool every year, and this group voted for Obama by a stunning 66-32 margin in 2008. By 2020—the first presidential election in which all Millennials will have reached voting age—this generation will be 103 million strong, and about 90 million of them will be eligible voters. Those 90 million Millennial eligible voters will represent just under 40 percent of America’s total eligible voters.

Professionals are now the most Democratic and fastest-growing occupational group in the United States, and they are a huge chunk of the burgeoning white college graduate population. They gave Obama an estimated 68 percent of their vote in 2008. By the middle of this decade, professionals will account for around one in five American workers.

Democrats also generally do better among women than men, and they do particularly well among growing female subgroups such as the unmarried and the college educated. Seventy percent of unmarried women voted for Obama, and an estimated 65 percent of college-educated women supported him. Unmarried women are now 47 percent, or almost half, of adult women, up from 38 percent in 1970, and college-educated women are an especially rapidly growing population. Their numbers have more than have tripled in recent decades, from just 8 percent of the 25-and-older female population in 1970 to 28 percent today.

Finally, growing religious diversity favors Democrats as well, especially rapid increases among the unaffiliated (75 percent of whom voted for Obama). Unaffiliated or secular voters—not white evangelical Protestants—are the fastest-growing “religious” group in the United States. The percentage of adults reporting no religious affiliation almost tripled from 1944 to 2004, rising from 5 percent to 14 percent. Projections indicate that by 2024, 20 percent to 25 percent of U.S. adults will be unaffiliated.

This trend—combined with growth among non-Christian faiths and race-ethnic trends—will ensure that by the 2016 election (or 2020 at the outside) the United States will have ceased to be a white Christian nation. Looking even farther down the road, white Christians will be only around 35 percent of the population by 2040, and conservative white Christians, who have been such a critical part of the Republican base, will be only about a third of that—a minority within a minority.