In the short run, you are correct. The more likely prospect is that the Rep share of that vote will decrease not increase. In 2008, if John McCain had received 60 percent [vice 55 percent] of the “white vote,” he would have won even if Barack Obama had received the entire Hispanic vote. Credible surveys indicate that the major policy concerns of Hispanics/Latinos were no different than the concerns of non-Hispanics/Latinos. The economy and jobs topped the list. There is little evidence that immigration policy was an influential factor in Hispanics’/Latinos’ choice between the two candidates once basic party predispositions are taken into account. The size of the Latino voting population should be kept in perspective alongside other subsets of the electorate. An estimated 11.8 million voters were of Latino ancestry, compared with 17 million African Americans, 19.7 million veterans, 23.6 million young people, 45 million conservatives, and 34 million born-again white Christians.
Republicans are deluded if they believe that altering their views on immigration and amnesty will win them more Hispanic votes. Ronald Reagan signed a “one-time” amnesty in 1986, but that did not change the fact that the majority of Hispanics still vote Democrat. The reality is that historically the majority of immigrants, not only Hispanics, vote Democrat. Unless the Republican Party can slow down the immigration numbers, it will be the permanent minority party or become just another wing of the Democrat Party.
The Democrats have used the rapidly changing demographics of this country, the product of immigration, to stampede many Republican politicians and elites to conclude that the party must “adapt or die” as Michael Barone stated on the issue of immigration. The leaders of extremist Hispanic ethnic groups trumpet their growing political power and cite the Bureau of Census projections that by 2050, one in 3 residents of this country will be Hispanic. The problem is that if the Republican Party does adapt to become more like the Democrat Party, it will die.
Bureau of the Census: An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury
The Democrats created the artificial category of “Hispanics” in the 1970s as a way to create another class of victims, which they could imbue with special rights and privileges, including affirmative action and minority business set asides. The result is another minority group that votes Democrat. It doesn’t matter that, according to the Census Bureau, 51 percent of Hispanics self-identify themselves as white [54% according to Pew.] The Census Bureau has even created the phony category of “non-Hispanic whites,” which are now 66 percent of the population and will be 50 percent in 2039. The reality is that “whites” will still be more than 70 percent of the population in 2039.
That said, Hispanics are becoming a permanent underclass similar to blacks. The Hispanic out of wedlock birth rate is 50%, second only to blacks, and the high school dropout rate is higher than 50% more than blacks. Children from single family households without an education form the social pathology of failure in this country. It also forms a class more dependent upon government, which translates into more Democrat voters.
Hispanic Family Values? Runaway illegitimacy is creating a new U.S. underclass."
"Unless the life chances of children raised by single mothers suddenly improve, the explosive growth of the U.S. Hispanic population over the next couple of decades does not bode well for American social stability. Hispanic immigrants bring near–Third World levels of fertility to America, coupled with what were once thought to be First World levels of illegitimacy. (In fact, family breakdown is higher in many Hispanic countries than here.) Nearly half of the children born to Hispanic mothers in the U.S. are born out of wedlock, a proportion that has been increasing rapidly with no signs of slowing down. Given what psychologists and sociologists now know about the much higher likelihood of social pathology among those who grow up in single-mother households, the Hispanic baby boom is certain to produce more juvenile delinquents, more school failure, more welfare use, and more teen pregnancy in the future."
Republicans need to quit worrying about something they cannot change. It is a flawed and false concept that Hispanics will determine the outcome of any coming election
If we don't change our immigration policies, the die is cast. The Reps will become the permanent minority party. 87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2039, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.
The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 80 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.
Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the world’s third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.977 percent (2010 estimate), principally due to immigration.
The electoral consquences are inescapable. Professor Jim Gimpel, University of Maryland, has done a study (linked below) showing the correlation between immigration and voting in the 50 largest and 100 largest counties in America. I can tell you from first hand knowledge that the changing demographics of Northern Virginia have turned it into a Democrat stronghold. 28% of the population of Fairfax County, the largest county in the state, is foreign born and now goes Democrat since the Kerry race in 2004.
Immigration, Political Realignment, and the Demise of Republican Political Prospects
The Hispanic vote is largely concentrated in several states, but that is changing. The Hispanic vote is changing states like Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. If you don't think that the Hispanic vote can't change elections, look at California. By 2050, the US will have a similar demographic makeup, i.e., one third of the population of CA is Hispanic and one in four residents of the state is foreign born.
And - Arouse a large percentage who did not vote in 2008 to get out and vote Republican Many Conservatives sat out the 2008 elections because McCain was pushed down our throats and Conservatives were belittled at every turn
No Rep would have beaten Obama in 2008. The legacy of Bush and his low approval ratings would have damned any GOP candidate. No one wanted a third Bush term. And the fact that we nominated the worst possible candidate, McCain, just made the result that much worse.
The Democrats believe that demography is on their side. Read Ruy Teixeira's Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties to understand how the Dems view how they will become the permanent majority party. The numbers are sobering because they basically are correct.