Romney vs. Palin (The Huckabee decision and its ramifications)

June 19, 2011 | techno

[techno]

Yesterday I wrote a post based on the premise that the media is deliberately avoiding any mention of the potential showdown between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in the GOP presidential race to determine who will win the GOP nomination next year and then attempted to provide mounting evidence that this was indeed the case, and in addition why the showdown is inevitable.

The potential of anybody in the field to win the nomination is NO longer a valid premise. The departure of Mike Huckabee from the presidential playing field on the evening of May 14th, 2011 on his weekly TV show determined that. To me Huckabee's move is the defining moment of the campaign so far and quite likely will in retrospect be rated the defining moment of the entire 2012 GOP primary season by pundits and historians. Isn't it ironic that five weeks later the Huckabee decision has NOT gained the widespread attention and scrutiny that I thought would accompany it?

Well I am going to try to make up for that neglect by the media and analyze the Huckabee decision from a few different angles.

1)The timing of the Huckabee decision

If you remember back in late January 2011 Mike Huckabee told the world that he would NOT be making any decision of his presidential prospects for 2012 until "the latter part of summer".

So you would think an enterprising journalist would ask the question of why Huck decided to move up his timetable of his decision. Or to look at it from a different angle, did the MSM want to avoid dwelling on the early or premature Huckabee decision in order to avoid discussing its political ramifications as it pertained to the candidacy of Mitt Romney and the potential candidacy of Sarah Palin. Was a decision taken by the media or the people pulling the strings to move on abruptly from the Huckabee decision in order to avoid conjecturing that the GOP presidential horse race might subsequently boil down to a two-person contest between Romney and Palin in a matter of one or two months once enough polls were conducted in what I call the post-Huckabee era?

As for Huck's intentions, let me state categorically I do NOT believe that Huckabee is a dumb man. He knew he could NOT beat both Romney and Palin in the same election cycle but he must have also known based on several polls conducted prior to Huckabee leaving and asking for second choices that a plurality of his support would move over to Sarah Palin and that a smaller slice of it would move over to Mitt Romney thereby causing both candidates to separate themselves from the field in future polls. And that is exactly what happened. Did Huck move up his timetable to give Sarah Palin a better chance or opportunity to compete against Romney? Or to put it another way did Huck want to find a way to make it less likely that Romney would secure the nomination? Perhaps.

2)The ramifications of the Huckabee decision on the polls

Here is a comparison between the poll numbers of the last polls of both Romney and Palin one month before Huckabee pulled out and then polls conducted in the post-Huckabee era one month after Huck pulled out (if there were two polls by the same pollster I have only included the latest poll in my calculation).

a)ROMNEY

5/10-------------PPP---------18

5/5--------------CNN---------13

5/4-------------QUINNPIAC----18

4/29-----------FOX NEWS------19

4/28-----------RASMUSSEN-----17

4/26-----------INSIDER ADV---14

4/22-----------GALLUP--------16

--------------AVERAGE--------16.4

B)PALIN

5/10----------PPP------------12

5/5-----------CNN------------11

5/4-----------QUINNPIAC------15

4/29----------FOX NEWS-------9

4/28----------RASMUSSEN------9

4/26----------INSIDER ADV----12

4/22----------GALLUP---------13

-------------AVERAGE--------11.6

Now post-Huckabee polls for both candidates

a)ROMNEY

5/24--------INSIDER ADV-----16

5/24--------MORRIS----------25

6/7---------ABC/WAPO--------21

6/8---------QUINNPIAC-------25

6/8---------REUTERS/IPSOS---18

6/8---------FOX NEWS--------23

6/11--------FDU-------------26

6/12--------GALLUP----------24

6/13--------CNN-------------24

6/15--------ECON/YOUGOV-----14

6/15--------NBC/WSJ---------30

6/16--------PPP-------------22

------------AVERAGE---------20.3

B)PALIN

5/24-------INSIDER ADV-----11

5/24-------MORRIS----------16

6/7--------ABC/WAPO--------17

6/8--------QUINNPIAC-------15

6/8--------REUTERS/IPSOS---19

6/8--------FOX NEWS--------12

6/11-------FDU-------------11

6/12-------GALLUP----------16

6/13------CNN--------------20

6/15------ECON/YOUGOV------20

6/15------NBC/WSJ----------14

6/16------PPP--------------15

----------AVERAGE----------15.5

NB: The RCP (Real Clear Politics) average of polls has Romney at 24.4 (boosted by a point by the Rasmussen poll where Palin was not polled) and has Palin at 16.0 as the I/A and FDU polls were not included in their calculation.

But the bottom line is that the rest of the field other than Romney or Palin have moved little in their RCP average with Huckabee absent from the race. In other words Romney has separated himself from the rest of the field as a result of the Huckabee decision to where Romney for example who had a 7-8 lead over the field other than Palin when Huckabee was in the mix now roughly has a 15 point lead over the rest of the field other than Palin.

What the MSM and its pollsters would have you believe however is that Romney's surge had little or nothing to do with Huckabee leaving the race, that this Romney surge was a product of a lot of hard work behind the scenes by Mitt and that the GOP primary voters were beginning to warm up to Romney. And they would then have you believe that Romney's lead is tenuous and that the rest of the field but Palin has a decent shot to get back into the game. Media smoke and mirrors. They have no shot, other than Palin.

n contrast the media has chosen to completely ignore Palin's surge because of Huckabee's departure despite past polls again that speculated on Huck leaving the race when Huck was still contemplating his decision and found that Palin would get a boost from Huck's departure and in fact would be its main beneficiary. And thus the media has NOT only denied the actual reality of the current Palin surge but also denied or ignored evidence gathered beforehand that predicted Palin's surge. Look up the definition of disingenuous.

And the reason why the media has denied Palin her surge: To deny the reality of how the GOP race is shaping up into a two-person showdown between Romney and Palin.

3)The political ramifications of the Huckabee decision looking ahead to Iowa and beyond

The decision by Huckabee to move up his timetable for leaving the presidential race from the latter part of summer to May 14th sent shock waves throughout the GOP establishment and Team Romney.

Imho, the GOP establishment fully realized in April that Palin was in a down cycle in the polls while Romney who while not hitting on all cylinders polling less than 20% in national polls at least was still the front-runner. And I believe the thinking a couple of months ago with Palin down in the polls caused by the constant deluge of reports she was not running and a constant bombardment by her enemies to demonize her was that it would be easier for the anti-Palin forces to make the case before Palin entered the race officially that she was NOT viable and thus make it easier to push somebody else forward as a possible rival to Romney, albeit a bogus premise. And with Palin hitting a low-water mark in her polls, they might be able to PROSELYTIZE her support which would then cause her poll numbers to even spiral downwards even more.

But with Huckabee bowing out when he did, he injected new "polling life" into the potential Palin candidacy and as you can see by the results of the polls post-Huckabee and the RCP average, Palin shot up in the polls within 3-4 weeks of Huck's departure and separated herself from the rest of the field as well. There are NO secrets in politics so Palin's enemies knew what Huck's decision would mean in terms of Palin's poll numbers. Palin was back in the game and because of one political decision Romney was no longer assured of victory next year.

And folks, that is why I do claim that Huckabee's decision to bow out of May 14th rather than 3-3 and 1/2 months later is the most significant event of the GOP primary season. By bowing out early, Huckabee allowed Palin to recover from her lull in her April polling numbers and to rebound to where any objective observer now would conclude that Palin is definitely in the hunt and the only candidate within striking distance of Romney and the only candidate in the field who is capable of stopping Romney from securing the nomination.

Could Palin have beaten Romney if Huck had stuck to his original timetable? We'll never know. But we do know Huck allowed Palin to regain some legitimacy in her polling numbers which imho would not have been forthcomming if Huckabee were still in the race and Palin had not declared. And that increased polling legitimacy (although denied or ignored by the MSM) together with the debut of The Undefeated and of course Palin's entry into the presidential fray should even further legitimize her campaign and her attempt to narrow the margin between her and Romney over the course of the next few months and finally give Palin the opportunity to catapult past Romney as her surge eventually becomes an absolute juggernaut. Thank you, Mike Huckabee.

In conclusion the GOP presidential race is NOT open. Instead it will become or evolve into a "death match" between Romney and Palin. Everyone else in the race or who gets into the race later other than Palin is simply noise, background or filler.

[secondamendmentkid]

“..I just can’t allow it to happen when I am reading the tea leaves..”

Hey, predictions are okay, just make sure you are not reading marijuana leaves. Also, you may want to take the Herman Cain sign out of your yard.

You omitted baby killing abortionist, tax and spender, twitter sexter, CFR member, among others that you could have been called.

There are occasions when certain members will fly off the handle over any thread or post. Buy yourself a lead suit before the EPA finds out about them and outlaws.

[secondamendmentkid]

“..I just can’t allow it to happen when I am reading the tea leaves..”

Hey, predictions are okay, just make sure you are not reading marijuana leaves. Also, you may want to take the Herman Cain sign out of your yard.

You omitted baby killing abortionist, tax and spender, twitter sexter, CFR member, among others that you could have been called.

There are occasions when certain members will fly off the handle over any thread or post. Buy yourself a lead suit before the EPA finds out about them and outlaws.

[secondamendmentkid]

sorry about dupe posts; browser keeps saying service is temporarily unavailable.

[freedumb2003]

>>Buy yourself a lead suit before the EPA finds out about them and outlaws.<<

Dang it, I keep forgetting to suit up.

Does anyone remember poor old Mon El? Just call me “Valor”...

[freedumb2003]

Thanks, AM.

[SoConPubbie]

Bottom line, denotative or connotative, any suggestion that Gov. Palin WON’T run (much less shouldn’t run) is met with insane blind rage. Like yours.

This type of post is considered "Blind Rage" by you?

Since you posted that nonsense, why don't you show us one of these attacks?

Your posts always drip with hyperbole, and exaggeration.

Then when someone exposes that hyperbole and exaggeration for what it is, you pull out the victim card and accuse everyone of attacking you.

Grow up FreeDumb2003, drop the victim nonsense.

[freedumb2003]

Unless and until you understand the difference between denotative and connotative, it is YOU who wars the “victim” mantle.

Gov. Palin either will or won’t run.

I say she won’t.

Look for the exaggeration there.

The most you can find is irritation from prior threads. But I guess irritation is too much for you and your ilk.

I understand and forgive you.

[freedumb2003]

>>You omitted baby killing abortionist, tax and spender, twitter sexter, CFR member, among others that you could have been called.<<

Apparently the new rule is that allegory and sarcasm must now be followed up by specific attribution.

Be prepared to attribute your assertions (we will not call them contentions, since so few understand the difference) to specific posts.

I am sure you, Am2Kid, see the dripping irony.

And thanks for coming along — once the tech problems with FR are solved it should be quite the ride.

Since, as always, the topic is no longer about Gov. Palin — it is a meta topic about Gov. Palin.

[ckilmer]

Because Palin is delaying—texas governor what’s his name is filling the void.

[Lakeshark]

The "blind rage" tag was pretty lame considering I simply challenged a specific line in one of freedumb's earlier posts. It was a simple challenge, no rage, just a request to show us one of those posts that (this is the quote from his post that I challenged):

I await the usual attacks of me as a Romney-supporting homosexual-agenda commie liberal socialist (who needs consistency when you are hurling invective?) illegal-alien-supporter because I DARE predict she won’t run

Why he considered my challenge rage and continued to hyperventilate, I have no idea.

I would suggest he either apologize for the hyperbole of that post, or find some posts that show his statement to be true.

I think you're right, he likes playing the victim........

[freedumb2003]

You aren’t getting my point.

It isn’t me “playing the victim.”

I am pointing out the behavior of many supporters of Gov. Palin. If you don’t get it, I can’t help you.

Your behavior is case in point — I don’t need to refer to any posts beyond this very thread.

Res ipsa loquitur.

[Lakeshark]

Why should we get your point?

You made an insane comment, and can't back it up, or at least apologize for being so stupid to say something that dumb.

Grow up, and yes, you're playing the victim, no one attacked you, I just asked you to back up what appeared to be a dumb statement, and now you're cowering behind "all of Gov Palin's supporters are so mean".

*rolls eyes*

[freedumb2003]

You are so funny. YOU have been caught and now cower behind “oh yeah — prove it!” for a sarcastic comment that hurt your wittle feelings. Your continued attacks on me speak to my underlying point.

Get a pair of big boy pants and take your criticism like gwown-up.

Thanks for the Monday morning LOL.

[Lakeshark]

YOU have been caught

I've been caught? At what, pointing out the absurdity of your statement?

So now you finally admit your comment was sarcastic? A day later?

You need help friend......

[freedumb2003]

You really need to keep up...

Have a great day.

[Lakeshark]

It’s not hard to keep up with a man (?) who can’t admit he said something stupid......

[GlockLady]

Why do you think, last spring, that Huck said he WOULD run if Palin did?