Moore’s Law Lives: the Future Is Still Alive

Pajamas Media ^ | May 8, 2011 | Michael S. Malone

[biggredd1]

madge dunham document is real!....
http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2011/05/takeyuki-irei-pi.html

[Kaslin]

Uh oh, looks like the truth comes out after all. Thanks for finding

[Dr. Sivana]

So, are you maintaining that Obama birth documents will double every generation; is that what your post has to do witj Moore’s law?

[Dan(9698)]

Obama birth documents will double every generation;

It appears that is the case.

Good observation.

[LearnsFromMistakes]

ping

[ShadowAce]

[Malsua]

Contrasted with “Bill’s Law”.

Each successive OS will use 4 times as much ram, require 8 times as much processing power and have 32 times as much bloat as the previous generation.

[GOPJ]

Alone, this oddly narrow and technical dictum — that the power, miniaturization, size, and power of integrated circuit chips will, together, double every couple years — has done a better job than any other in determining the pace of daily life, the ups and downs of the economy, the pace of innovation, and the creation of new companies, fads, and lifestyles.

Didn't the original 'law' say 'every 6 months'? Still, it's impressive...

[martin_fierro]

This guy’s writing style — replete with asides — gets really annoying after awhile.

[Gondring]

The paper that started it all:
ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf

[darth]

Check out “The Singularity is Near” by Ray Kurzweil.

It is overly optimistic, but I think Ray has a good handle on where technology is going.

[darth]

Sorry, should have provided a link:

http://product.half.ebay.com/_W0QQprZ53561952

Highly recommend the book.

[Tax-chick]

I myself - brilliant writer that I am - sometimes think of far too many synonyms, antonyms, examples, contrasts - even exclamations! - to include correctly in any sort of comma-divided list. It is a sign ... or so I sometimes delude myself ... of a well-stocked mind.

[Louis Foxwell]

Well stocked indeed, but lacking in systematic application, the root of effective communication.

[Tax-chick]

Oh, well, if communication is your goal, that’s something totally different.

Some of us - we know who we are - are in the wordiness business for the sheer joy of watching the syllables unspool across the screen until they reach their natural termination ... in a period.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

The paper that started it all:

Cramming more components onto integrated circuits

Great link. It shows that Moore projecting his law from 1965 only to 1970 - and here we are able to confirm his projection has been valid for, not merely half a decade, but going on half a century.

IMHO Moore's Law does not actually define the rate at which improved IC circuits are developed, but rather how fast they are demanded. That is, the fact that increased production of a good has, historically, always produced a concomitant reduction in cost for not just transistors but for all goods. The reason that the development of IC improvements has been as rapid as Moore predicted (for much longer than he actually initially predicted) is simply that two years from now the market will absorb twice as many transistors as now, at half the price per transistor as today. Doubling the production of a physical thing of constant size (a car, for example) would depress the price by much more than a factor of two. But two years from now I will be ready to listen if you offer to double my RAM for the same money as my original quantity of RAM.

Even at this late date there are sure to be billions of people who don't have computers, so when you drive down the price with increased production you still have a huge market to tap. As it is, I think many of those people are at least getting cell phones . . .

[Gondring]

And also note that the speed of a processor doesn’t scale with the number of components. The doubling of components doesn’t mean that you get a doubling of speed.

[Gondring]

I liked the style. It’s better than having to sort out misplaced modifiers all thrown at the end of a sentence (or wandering aimlessly throughout the paragraphs).