Hot Air Candidate Approval results

Hot Air ^ | April 19, 2011 | Patrick Ishmael

[onyx]

I’m going to start off with the Presidential picks even though it’s secondary to our main purpose, and then get to the nitty gritty in the rest of the data. As always, contact me if you have questions or comments; the number of approaches I could take to highlight the data are nearly endless, so tell me if you have a particular wrinkle in mind. 7222 readers participated in the survey.

Sarah Palin once again leads the Primary race among Hot Air readers. She is again followed by Herman Cain in second. Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels take third and fourth place respectively, while Mitt Romney leads a very tight pack of Rand Paul and Michele Bachmann, in fifth.

As always, the numbers are pretty consistent month to month, with the candidate spread widening as people leave the field and votes get reassigned.

There are a lot of ways to look at the favorability data, so since I’ve laid out the overall vote already, let’s start that way. As a reminder, favorability questions were based on a 1-to-7 scale, with 7 being the highest mark.

The blue line is the overall approval average of a candidate. The red line is a peer average — that is, the candidate’s favorability with those who said they voted for someone else. You’ll note that the peer average is always lower than the overall average, since candidates’ supporters have an interest in giving their person marks higher than everyone else.

Supporters on average gave their candidate a rating of 6.49. Non-supporters on average gave those candidates a 3.60 rating. The field as a whole was rated at 3.76, or roughly average-to-below average.

The following chart is sorted by average supporter rating. For what it’s worth, I think it’s fair to call this a measure of supporter “intensity.”

This next graph is the same as the graph above, but rearranged by peer average.

One bar sticks way out. Sarah Palin is well-liked at Hot Air even among those who don’t support her for President, but I think a lot of the flame wars that break out in the comments section are a result of this approval/intensity disparity. Lots of strong Palin supporters skew the overall average up, but when you remove those voters, you get an idea of where everyone else is at. You’ll also note that the farther to the left you go on this chart, the greater the “grassroots rockstar,” but approval doesn’t always translate into votes. Compare to the totals at the top of this post.

Since Donald Trump is presently newsworthy, I’ll also point out that he’s the second-least favored candidate in the Hot Air field. The least favored is, surprisingly, Jon Huntsman, who I didn’t think had yet garnered a high enough profile to elicit that kind of a distinction. We’ll see if that changes going forward.

The overall results follow for each candidate, broken down by rating. Again, this is without supporters removed.

We’ll do another formal Presidential survey in just a few weeks. Stay tuned.

[onyx]

A nightstick the size of a telephone poll and the muscle to wield it effortlessly!

GAME ON! FIGHT LIKE A GIRL!

[Gargantua]

You are obviously a gentleman of exceptional breeding and impeccable taste. Not to mention a connoisseur of exquisite humor...

8^D

[Friendofgeorge]

Well I stand by that, and in fact I am on record going back as far as I have been coming here to this site that the science of polling in a partisan media world is dead. I said that before I even heard of Sarah Palin.

There is no pollster that I trust, even if I happen to like the numbers. Gallup is bought and payed for by the MSM ever since George Gallup (a wonderful Christian man) sold the business some years ago.

Fox Opinion Dynamics, total garbage.

So all the pollsters do now is manufacture opinion, it does take it`s toll on who ever they target though, this is true.

So the next time someone says to you...The American People are very smart, don't buy it.

Just look at the situation with Donald Trump, he is being pushed by the MSM in polling. Even RCP that includes the PPP poll in it`s ridiculous non scientific theory of averaging phony polls, even they did not include the one that PPP released with Trump up big, 26% I believe.

So the MSM is pushing Trump in phony polls and lying about Sarah Palin as they go. They were pushing Bachmann, but have replaced her with Trump at the moment. Manufactured polling that even Freepers (some) are falling for.

So that`s my rant... btw I never claimed to be perfect.

[dforest]

Well, I agree with you.

The person that posted this asked for comments on this poll. I didn’t pick on anyone in my response. I was merely saying that any poll that politely asks people to only vote once is about like posting a sign in a democrat polling place and expecting that they will only vote once.

Snark wasn’t necessary.

You and I would probably also agree that in a Hot Air poll, even if people only voted once, Palin would most likey win.

A few months ago they had a poll in which Herman Cain won. We would agree that Cain fans stormed the poll because the outcome isn’t realistic. Herman is a good guy though.

We probably agree that the ABC poll posted here today was a crock. They over sampled democrats and polled adults, not likely voters.

See, we don’t have to be nasty. I have already said I will vote and support the nominee, whoever that may be to get rid of Obama. However, if it is Romney, it won’t be sweet.

[dsc]

“Just look at the situation with Donald Trump, he is being pushed by the MSM in polling.”

Of course. How happy they would be if the stupid party nominated him. Who else could be counted upon to lose to the Hildebeeste with such a high level of confidence?

[Friendofgeorge]

Thank You for the very sensible post, well said :) I will try to be sensible as well. Now enough out of me :) Some of what I said in past was tongue in cheek btw.

Not about Sarah Palin though, I am totally in the tank for her!

[Friendofgeorge]

Well said!

[dforest]

No! You are kidding me. /sarc ;^)

[NoGrayZone]

Holy carp, I LOVE those!!! Is it okay if I steal the 2nd one? =)