"Rubber Ducky Crafting Strategy to Defeat USS Enterprise"
vs. 
Posted on 01/07/2011 1:05:49 PM PST by Brices Crossroads
Barack Obama is, I believe, crafting a two-fold strategy to defeat Sarah Palin in the likely event that she secures the GOP nomination in 2012. Of course, his path to reelection would be made exponentially easier if she is not nominated, but it is becoming increasingly clear to him that she will be the nominee. Both components of his strategy hearken back to past campaigns, one rather distant and one quite recent. Both are, in my judgment, destined to fail.
The first component of this strategy is his so-called move to the center, by which he hopes to replicate Bill Clinton's victory of 1996. There are obviously many distinctions between 1996 and 2012, but both Clinton faced and Obama is facing a GOP controlled House, after an historic repudiation of his policies. However, Clinton's signature accomplishment--Hillarycare--went down in flames, so he was free to face down the GOP, which had a general notions of cutting government but no coherent plan to do so and certainly no concrete program to aim at. Obama, on the other hand, jammed through his signature accomplishment, ObamaCare, in spite of its wild unpopularity, and he and his allies in the Senate will have to oppose repeal. Indeed, in 2012, the GOP is almost certain to make even bigger gains in the Senate and to take control, which means that Obama's veto pen would be the only obstacle to repeal. Having thus succeeded with this and much of his statist agenda, Obama is not free to move to the center as Clinton did. He must stand athwart history, veto pen in hand, yelling at the GOP in Congress, "Stop!" Thus the policy atmospherics of 2012 are distinctly different than those of 1996.
And not just the policy atmospherics, but the likely political atmospherics as well. In 1996, the GOP nominated the quintessential big government, Establishment Republican, the ancient Bob Dole who even his ideological first cousin, George H.W. Bush dubbed in 1988 the "tax collector for the welfare state." The big government, lackluster Dole (aided by a capitulation to Clinton by the Gingrich-led House on spending and the government shutdown) generated a third party candidacy by Ross Perot which garnered 10% of the vote, permitting Clinton to win an easy plurality victory. If the GOP nominates one of Palin's likely three major competitors--Romney, Gingrich or Huckabee--all of whose big government bona fides are beyond cavil--Obama could well ride the 1996 model to a second term. This is the reason for the all out effort to destroy Palin and to dissuade her from running. With Palin in the race, there will be no third party, at least not of the Perot variety, which is the only kind which could significantly damage her. A third party by someone like Bloomberg would damage not Pain but its intended beneficiary, Barack Obama. Hence, you will not see one.
The second leg of Obama's anti-Palin strategy recognizes the flight of white voters away from the Democrats and seeks to staunch the bleeding. The so-called Colorado model, seeks to employ a strategy similar to that of the winning 2010 Colorado Senate race, in which the winner lost blue collar white women by double digits and blue collar white men by more than 2-1, but held his losses among college educated white men by single digits and won college educated women by more than 2-1. Ron Brownstein writes in the Natinal Journal:
"More specifically—and perhaps more revealingly—Axelrod also has his eye on the Colorado example, where the exit poll found that Bennet lost blue-collar white women by double digits and blue-collar white men by more than 2-to-1. Yet he prevailed by amassing strong support from young people, Hispanics, and other minorities; holding his deficit among college-educated white men to single digits; and routing Buck among college-educated white women. A similar formula, Axelrod suggests, could be available to Obama in 2012, especially if the Republican presidential primary process, as he expects, tugs the eventual GOP nominee toward the right. “The Bennet thing was particularly instructive,” Axelrod said. “They made a big effort there not only among Hispanics but women. The contrast he drew with Buck was very meaningful. That’s why I say the gravitational pull of those Republican primaries is going to be very significant.” "
http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/in-2012-obama-may-need-a-new-coalition-20110105?page=5 LINK
Leaving aside the obvious distinctions between Colorado and other states in which this strategy might be employed, the "Colorado model" explains a lot about Obama's obsession to demonize Palin and to do all he can to see that she is not the GOP nominee. This protracted "two minutes of hate" so reminiscent of Orwell's 1984, which has been leveled at Palin, is aimed chiefly at educated voters and, if she is the nominee, it will have to be undertaken with even more ferocity with the likely result being a backlash against Obama by the very same white women he needs to target. (Many of the educated white women in Colorado may have voted against Buck because they perceived him to be misogynistic, not because of any affinity for Bennet).
Palin's nomination will pose a very real threat to the Colorado model, however. First, her percentages with blue collar whites will be even higher against Obama than Buck's were against Bennet. More to the point, however, the attacks on her intelligence and competence may eventually wear thin with the demographic to which they are designed to appeal: educated white women, many of whom have felt the sting of misogyny up close and personal.
In 1980, the Carter-Mondale campaign launched a number of attacks on Ronald Reagan. Two of the most salient were: 1) Reagan is going to cut social security and throw grandma out into the snow; and 2) He is too old and senile to be President. These attacks, particularly the social security canard, seemed to have gained real traction against Reagan according to the polls. I remember reading about him answering a question at a gathering of senior citizens about the so-called threat he posed to social security, Reagan gave a standard policy answer and, I suppose, saw he was losing his audience. He just stopped and in his "aw shucks" manner, said, "Hey. I am one of you." In 1980, in spite of the virulent age driven attacks on Reagan, he carried voters over 60 by 54-40 (Anderson got 4%), whereas Gerald Ford had won them by only 52-47 in 1976.
When Barack Obama ramps up his "Colorado Strategy" and stands on the debate stage with Palin, an accomplished, self reliant woman who has spent her whole career deconstructing "the good old boys" network, he had better hope that his target audience---educated white women---don't turn en masse to one another and say, "She's one of us."
If (or should I say, when) that happens, it will be "Katy bar the door" for his Presidency.
Dude, you rock!
I think if a solid conservative man runs for it, Palin will opt out. The left’s hatred of her is so palpable that I’m afraid one of their extremist nutjobs would try something overt (the left is more likely to act on their obsessions although they accuse the “right” of being in reality what they themselves actually are). I do believe her that she and her husband are praying on it and will follow the guidance they receive about it. - I also have to wonder whether at this juncture, a country that sunk so low as to elect the community organizer, Chicago thug, teleprompter reader is really worthy of Governor Palin.
Thanks, T-dud!. I am just saying what most of us know.
Excuse...t-dude, not dud ;)
Excellent post yet again BC. many thanks!
Sarah Palin can run circles around Zero...circles...it is going to be hard for him to run in 2012. There will be important states who will require to even be put on their ballot an authentic long form BC...
Typical... they always want to go after white wimmin. LOL
8^D
8^D
You are wishing for some "GREAT WHITE HOPE MALE CONSERVATIVE" to come to the fore. That isn't going to happen! This was also the great wish of many here, in '07-'08 and that didn't happen then.
Most of Perot's supporters were political naifs, had little to no idea what he stood for, nor how politics works. None of that is true for Governor's Palin's supporters here, or amonst those who have never heard of this site.
Ross had never held an elected office and had made most of his money sucking off the government teat...vis-a-vis government contracts. He also hated the Bush family with a burning, visceral emotion. Again, nothing even remotely akin to Governor Palin.
The MSM,"comics", pundits of every stripe, and many of the GOP elitists have been going after not just Sarah Palin, but everyone in her family since she was chosen to be McCain's running-mate and she, unlike every other pols, ever, has fought back and, for the most part, won. Anyone who will be the the GOP presidential candidate in '12, WILL get the same treatment and not a one of them will know how to fight back, as she does!
If anyone is not seeing reality, it is you..........go buy a damned clue or three.
I’ll be back.
“I also have to wonder whether at this juncture, a country that sunk so low as to elect the community organizer, Chicago thug, teleprompter reader is really worthy of Governor Palin.”
The same country that elected Jimmy Carter (another Dem who sold himself under false premises) in 1976 threw him out on his ear with a resounding 44 state thud just four years later. So it can very easily happen. Palin is the only one of the current crop who makes it likely that it will happen.
;-\
"Rubber Ducky Crafting Strategy to Defeat USS Enterprise"
vs.
“Regan was an amiable dunce,”
Are you of this opinion or are you saying the media portrayed him in this manner. Reagan was by far not a dunce.
“The MSM,”comics”, pundits of every stripe, and many of the GOP elitists have been going after not just Sarah Palin, but everyone in her family since she was chosen to be McCain’s running-mate and she, unlike every other pols, ever, has fought back and, for the most part, won. Anyone who will be the the GOP presidential candidate in ‘12, WILL get the same treatment and not a one of them will know how to fight back, as she does!”
Great post top to bottom. There is no great male hope. SP is the only one who knows how to handle the MSM onslaught that is sure to come against anyone whho dares oppose Obama. What is so hard about that?
Sarah Palin is not going to get the nomination if she runs for it. The experiment with something besides a white male is over and the voters will return to that comfort zone in 2012.
“Barack Obama is, I believe, crafting a two-fold strategy to defeat Sarah Palin
“Rubber Ducky Crafting Strategy to Defeat USS Enterprise””
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LOL. That is priceless. A picture is worth a thousand words.
<< Sarah Palin is not going to get the nomination if she runs for it. The experiment with something besides a white male is over and the voters will return to that comfort zone in 2012. >>
Palin has more balls than all of the White males that she’ll be running against, COMBINED!
ROFLOLOLOLOLOL
KEEPER!
Of course, I’ve already bookmarked BC’s thread!
Spot on...and she combines that unique trait with intelligence. No one else (to date) comes close, in comparison, IMO.
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