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In NY-23, Conservatives Win (Erick Erickson of Red State)
RedState.com ^ | Wednesday, November 4th at 12:04AM EST | Erick Erickson

Posted on 11/03/2009 10:24:33 PM PST by nutmeg

The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens.

This is a huge win for conservatives.

“Whaaaa. . . ?” you say.

There are two big victories at work in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

First, the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain. Now, in NY-23, conservatives rallied and destroyed the Republican candidate the establishment chose.

I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.

And make no mistake, despite the Beltway spin, we know for certain based on statements from the local Republican parties, that they chose Scozzafava based on advice from the Washington crowd.

So we have demonstrated to the GOP that it must not take conservatives for granted. The GOP spent $900,000.00 on a Republican who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Were we to combine Scozzafava and Hoffman’s votes, Hoffman would have won.

Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.

Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

For all intents and purposes, NY-23 is a trial run for Florida. And in Florida, the conservative candidate is operating inside the GOP. If John Cornyn and the NRSC do not want to see Florida go the way of NY-23, they better stand down.


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: conservativevote; hoffman; ny2009; ny23; owens; scozzafava; scuzzafava; scuzzy
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To: Hildy
Why are absentee ballots counted a week after election day?

To allow time for them to arrive in the mail?

61 posted on 11/04/2009 4:17:48 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (Public healthcare looks like it will work as well as public housing did.)
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To: BOBWADE

Both. (And he should not have conceded so soon. He could still end up with a numeric victory).


62 posted on 11/04/2009 4:17:54 AM PST by altair (All I want for Christmas is NO legislation passed for the rest of the year)
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To: nutmeg

bttt


63 posted on 11/04/2009 4:31:02 AM PST by Matchett-PI (Rush has an army.)
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To: rurgan
Re: “The Republicans and Democrats are so similar as to be virtually indistinguishable. “

It all depends on your perspective. One could effectively argue that a dog and a cat are completely different, yet of course they have many similarities. Unfortunately both dems and pubs are both pro-state, pro-Keynesian, pro-government, pro-two party system. On these areas they can't be told apart.

64 posted on 11/04/2009 5:34:08 AM PST by The Truth Will Make You Free
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To: nutmeg
Volokh notes: "NY-23: Winning Democrat Bill Owens was A-rated by NRA (as was Hoffman)."

Not the first time the Dem was the better choice than the Repub in NY.

65 posted on 11/04/2009 5:45:28 AM PST by ctdonath2 (End the coup!)
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To: Lancey Howard
We must also keep in mind that Owens is hardly more liberal than Scozzafava would have been. And Owens himself must recognize that he is in an extremely precarious position. He runs a grave risk of losing this seat next cycle if he is seen as merely one more Pelosi foot soldier.

This is b-a-r-e-l-y and nearly a hollow victory for the Democrats. And they know it.

66 posted on 11/04/2009 6:24:37 AM PST by behzinlea
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To: rurgan

bttt


67 posted on 11/04/2009 6:34:16 AM PST by petercooper (GOP: Big Tent Party??? Not if you are a CONSERVATIVE.)
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To: rurgan

Did Newt endorse Hoffman or his democratic opponent?

What more can be said.

Yes, the dems and repubs are different in the sense that a child’s mom says bedtime is 7:00 or 7:30.

I’m a 11:00 sort of guy. From that perspective, they’re the same.


68 posted on 11/04/2009 7:02:23 AM PST by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: nutmeg

Better an Owens than a Scuzzlebutt.


69 posted on 11/04/2009 7:16:41 AM PST by Grunthor (Thank YOU George Bush, for giving us the GOP of today!)
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To: rurgan

The problem is that this race was a mess from the start and the Republicans messed up and looked every bit as Rino as we expected.

John McHugh defeated Democrat Mike Oot in 2008, garnering 65.3% of the vote. Then he tucked tail and accepted Obama’s nomination as Secretary of the Army.

So we got a race this year without primary and with the NY GOP choosing a democrat as the Nominee. So if Dede Scozzafava had won she would have been more left than the Democrat candidate and thus another RINO and another vote for Obama agenda. Thankfully, she didn’t do well and she had to drop out. But then, no surprise, Rino Republicans endorsed her and gave her money before she tucked tail and dropped out.

Then to our shock, what did you expect, after dropping out, she went and endorsed the Democrat, but she remained on the ballot so it was like she didn’t drop out at all. Meanwhile those unhappy with a Leftists Rino as the nominee convinced Doug Hoffman to run as an Independent. There was no primary in this race for Doug to challenge Dede. So that was problem.

Then Doug did the best under the circumstances. That he cmae close to winning is a true testament to the fact he did a good job under the situation. But, alas the crap that this race has become was too much to overcome. Doug has in essence fight off a democrat and a Rino. That Doug was not from the district was a big issue as well.

So when Dede quit, but was still on the ballot. The idiot NY GOP had no choice but to go with conservative Hoffman. And all along Hoffman was the best chance to win and not Dede. So they cut a radio ad. A surprising one about voting for conservatives to help the country. But it was all too late as the damage was done. Plus the radio ad didn’t mention Hoffman in the ad.

This race highlights everything wrong with politics and with the Republicans. But furthermore since Dede was on the ballot still she pulled 5% of the vote. Enough that if it had gone to Hoffman he would have won. So this race does give fuel to those who do not want a third party. The reason being that then it splits the vote between a republican and a conservative. But then you also have to realize that anyone voting for Dede did not want Hoffman’s conservatism or why would they vote for Rino.

Bottom line Bill Ownes won. Doug Hoffman came close and maybe if he had more time and a primary he might have won.

49% for Ownes to 45% Hoffman.

I say if the Republicans hadn’t dropped the ball they could have won. That and idiot Mchugh should have tucked his tail for Obama. But it is liberal new York and the district was Republican for year and yet A NY Republican is not the same as a Texas one. Think of Rudy Guliani and George Pataki.


70 posted on 11/04/2009 7:34:17 AM PST by Mozilla
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To: unsycophant
We’ve got a big election coming up in 2010. I hope the conservative teaparty’ers don’t try and help my district.

One wonders why you'd bother signing into a conservative website, when -- by your own admission on your homepage -- you decry conservatives, embracing, instead, any GOP candidate..... liberal or otherwise.

71 posted on 11/04/2009 7:39:46 AM PST by Lazamataz (DEFINITION: rac-ist (rA'sis't) 1. Anyone who disagrees with a liberal about any topic.)
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To: All

The problem with this race in New York was that it was a mess from the start and the Republicans messed up the most and looked every bit as Rino as we expected as got the loss for it.

John McHugh defeated Democrat Mike Oot in 2008, garnering 65.3% of the vote. Then he tucked tail and accepted Obama’s nomination as Secretary of the Army.

So we got a race this year without primary and with the NY GOP choosing a democrat as the defacto nominee. So if Dede Scozzafava had won she would have been more left than the Democrat candidate and thus another RINO and another vote for Obama agenda. Thankfully, she didn’t do well and she had to drop out. But then, no surprise, Rino Republicans endorsed her and gave her money, along with the RNC, before she tucked tail and dropped out.

Then to our shock, what did you expect, after dropping out, she went and endorsed the Democrat, but she remained on the ballot so it was like she didn’t drop out at all. Meanwhile those unhappy with a Leftists Rino as the nominee convinced Doug Hoffman to run as an Independent. There was no primary in this race for Doug to challenge Dede. So that was a big problem right there.

Then Doug did his best under the circumstances. That he came close to winning is a true testament to the fact he did a good job under the situation. But, alas the crap that this race had become was too much to overcome. One can argue The Republican deserved to lose after nominating a leftist and that should be a wake up call to the base and the party.

Doug has in essence to fight off a democrat and a Rino. That Doug was not from the district was a big issue as well.
So when Dede quit, but was still on the ballot, the idiot NY GOP had no choice but to go with conservative Hoffman. And all along Hoffman was the best chance to win and not Dede.

So they cut a radio ad. A surprising one about voting for conservatives to help the country. But it was all too late as the damage was done. Plus the radio ad didn’t mention Hoffman in the ad.

This race highlights everything wrong with politics and with the Republicans. But furthermore since Dede was on the ballot still she pulled 5% of the vote. Enough that if it had gone to Hoffman he would have won. So this race does give fuel to those who do not want a third party. The reason being that then it splits the vote between a republican and a conservative. But then you also have to realize that anyone voting for Dede did not want Hoffman’s conservatism or why would they vote for Rino.

Bottom line Bill Ownes won. Doug Hoffman came close and maybe if he had more time and a primary he might have won.

49% for Ownes to 45% Hoffman.

I say if the Republicans hadn’t dropped the ball they could have won. That and McHugh shouldn’t have tucked his tail for Obama. But it is liberal New York and the district was Republican for years and yet A NY Republican is not the same as a Texas one. Think of Rudy Guliani and George Pataki.


72 posted on 11/04/2009 7:45:38 AM PST by Mozilla
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To: This_far

3rd party is good for sending a message — rarely for actually winning an election.

But 3rd-party is also a civil war, and they rarely work out well. The other side, when you finally win, wants to burn the house down on the way out.

Better to send a rare message like this, and then work within the party, taking it over through the majority rule.


73 posted on 11/04/2009 8:05:59 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Sasquatch the Original

It’s a victory because DeDe would have voted with the Dems on cap&trade, on abortion, on card check, on the health care bill. All would be called “bi-partisan” votes because of DeDE.


74 posted on 11/04/2009 8:31:28 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Defiant
Scuzzy was a Dem all along, as conservatives pointed out. Good riddance to her. One year with the Dem, and a real conservative will take the seat back.

My own $.02
If Scuzzy would have won then she's most likely do as people on this thread suggested and caucus with the Dims. Pelosi would have her vote and the GOP party hacks wouldn't run anyone in the primary next year against her, she is an 'R' after all. An even worse scenareo, she pulls an Arlen Spector at the last second and they are caught off guard.

As it stands now, they're forced to put someone up and if they know what's good for them it'll be a conservative, maybe Hoffman, maybe not but it will have to be a conservative.

75 posted on 11/04/2009 1:14:19 PM PST by YankeeReb
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To: Defiant

What was the turn out like? Was there a low turnout? Did the Democrat patronage machine get its people out?


76 posted on 11/04/2009 1:23:13 PM PST by cradle of freedom (Long live the Republic !)
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To: cradle of freedom
What was the turn out like?

Sorry, I don't know.

77 posted on 11/04/2009 1:54:22 PM PST by Defiant (The absence of bias appears to be bias to those who are biased.)
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To: Lazamataz

LOL. Wannbe.


78 posted on 11/04/2009 5:54:14 PM PST by unsycophant
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To: nutmeg

Limbaugh is right about that. For a “carpetbagger,” Hoffman made a good show.


79 posted on 11/04/2009 6:05:20 PM PST by GVnana ("Obama is incredibly naive and grossly egotistical." Sarkozy)
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To: unsycophant
LOL. Wannbe.

Tut tut, my sweaty and portly friend. It appears the wine has taken a toll on your typing. Did you mean 'wannabe', or are you closely following the retirement of the Northeast Indian Seventh-Day Adventist priest Kungsong Wanbe?

I'm suspecting the latter. You're kooky like that.

80 posted on 11/04/2009 6:34:51 PM PST by Lazamataz (DEFINITION: rac-ist (rA'sis't) 1. Anyone who disagrees with a liberal about any topic.)
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