Potential Republican Crack-Up

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.

Update: Lunar Mission

(Follow-up to post #1518) -- Link

In addition to our human cargo, (our pilots), and the package for NASA, we will deliver to the moon a base development and exploration package consisting of the Moonworm and these “spider robots.” Let me describe them further.

The spider robots will look very much like spiders, with the expected multiple legs and spider-like eyes. Their metal extensions will be moved by ferrofluid* muscles attached in much the way our muscles are attached to our limbs. As electromagnetohydrodynamic* pumps push the fluid through tubes into loosely filled bladders, the distending bladders will thicken, and shorten, appearing like bulging biceps wherever contraction is required.

With balanced “muscles” on opposite sides of each joint, we can manipulate the spider limbs and three-fingered “hands” in a very natural manner. Essentially, all we have to do is slip our arm or leg into a sleeve which monitors its motions, and duplicates them in the tele-operated* spider.

Operator training time is thereby reduced. It also makes the design of the spider arms or legs very simple. We will follow the pattern of our own bodies. Typically, for forward motion, two “arms” will be raised, while three “legs” on each side will alternate as tripods for the robot. One could control the robot by having three tripod legs imitate the actions of one human leg, and the opposite triplet would follow the motions of the opposite human leg.

Once arriving at a work site, the operator would assume a position and begin using the “hands” and “arms” of the robot. Note that all the robot’s extensions are interchangeably either a hand or an arm, as the need arises. If a “leg” were to be damaged and rendered unusable, one need only switch to a different direction which makes that “leg” an “arm” and then walk back to the repair facility. “If you break a leg, don’t come running to me!” Instead, one would walk.

The three-fingered hands will be difficult to use for any real precision, but with proper design of those objects we expect to manipulate, this should not be a problem. All tools to be used by the robots will be designed to be held by such a hand. These awkward hands will also be designed to act as feet when in the clenched fist position. This should minimize damage to them, and the wear surfaces will be appropriately thickened.

We will make training robots available for new operators. These are reduced in scale for the training purposes, although full-sized spider robots are useful in some of our assembly procedures here. Terrestrial units are strengthened for Earth gravity and use hydraulics rather than synthetic muscles.

For this reason, they are made large, since a larger robot is a stronger robot, and a robot no stronger than a man can be replaced by a man. These robots are used in the construction work going on either underwater, or in the dank bowels of our subterranean domain. They are a part of what makes our enterprise self-sufficient and give us the ability to change and modify things quickly.

The name "Moonworm" is taken, obviously, from its corollary the Earthworm. It will be powered by two of the Gas-Cooled Nuclear Reactors, and will provide replenishment power for the batteries of the spider robots.

As implied, the Moonworm will burrow down into the rock and dusty surface of the moon, using articulation similar in function to its Earthly counterpart, with a rotating boring rig at its business end, and hydraulic actuators to help propel it along either the surface or sub-surface.

Physical conditions permitting, we may be able to establish underground tunnels for storage and experimentation. This will depend on the nature of the underground materials, and we won't know that until later.

In the worst case, the spider robots will have to take shelter as best they can, following their tours of duty on the surface. The primary purpose of the Moonworm will be to deliver remote-control laboratory and material processing equipment to the Moon, so that we can use it to process Lunar materials for construction projects like a mass-driver or electric catapult.

Glossary:

Electromagnetohydrodynamic -- This tongue-twister of a word describes the operation below, that crossed electrical and magnetic fields can exert a force on a ferromagnetic material, (even if it is a liquid), and denotes the interlinked functioning of such systems. They can be motors, generators, or in this case, muscles, all acting silently, and without physical moving parts.

Ferrofluid -- a fluid, such as hydraulic oil, or a specialized synthetic lubricant for high temperature use, in which magnetic material is suspended in colloidal fashion. Such fluids can act as a form of motor as crossed magnetic and electrical fields exert a force on them. The advantage of this technique is that there are no moving parts.

Tele-operation -- This is the technique by which operator inputs at one location are fed electronically to actuators somewhere else. While this would be invaluable for reducing the risk to life and limb here on Earth, or under it, in mining operations, we are concentrating on its use in space. Our operators can be comfortable and safe in shirtsleeve environments, while the robots will be subject to vacuum and extreme temperatures.

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