POLAND AND RUSSIA HAVE CONFLICTING STRATEGIC INTERESTS (Ukraine)

POLAND AND RUSSIA HAVE CONFLICTING STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND THE SOONER BRUSSELS UNDERSTANDS IT, THE BETTER (Ukraine)

Russia wants to keep Ukraine in its exclusive zone of influence and Poland perceives Ukraine as a EU member in the near future. Those two strategies are irreconcilable.

COMMENTARY: By Joanna Strzelczyk Chief of Staff of Warsaw Mayor Lech Kaczynski Former Foreign Ministry Official (1990-1996) Article published in Rzeczpospolita Polish News Bulletin, Warsaw, Poland, Wed, Jul 13, 2005

Since 1989, with a short break in the late 1990s, the Russian question has been one of the most important ones in Poland's foreign policy, writes Joanna Strzelczyk, chief of staff of Warsaw mayor Lech Kaczynski, former foreign ministry official (1990-1996), in Rzeczpospolita.

Today, the question's significance has been rapidly growing, due chiefly to mounting Polish-Russian disputes and conflicts. That has been a result, on the one hand, of the neo-imperialism of Vladimir Putin, who has exploited historical issues to make short-term political gains, and, on the other, of controversies, present since the early 1990s, in Polish-Russian relations.

In the recent years, those controversies had been hushed for various reasons, so as soon as they became public knowledge, the situation intensified.

That was reflected in historical disputes, stimulated by the Moscow celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the end of world war II, which brought back into the spotlight issues such as the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, the Katyn massacre, or Poland's post-war enslavement. Those are hot media topics, but also issues important for Poland's image in Europe. They are not, however, first-rate issues.

The anniversary celebrations are over and the real problem has now emerged, hidden so far under the historical and hysterical rhetoric: are we doomed to conflict in Polish-Russian relations? The answer is affirmative, and the issue is not new.

It is a consequence of the processes occurring in Europe following the collapse of the bipolar world. This means that Poland and Russia have increasingly divergent interests, and that this process will continue.

What are Poland's interests in Russia? In principle, there are only THREE: [1] regulating the historical issues, [2] access to the Russian markets, and [3] supplies of Russian energy commodities.

And what are Russia's interests in Poland? Only ONE: dominating Poland's energy and fuel markets.

A strategic goal inconsistent with Poland's national interests. And vice versa, as Poland's interests in Russia, with the exception of fuel imports, are inconvenient for Russia.

What are the controversial issues between the two countries? There are several, and all of fundamental significance for Poland and Russia.

The FIRST issue, Ukraine today and Belarus in the future. Russia wants to keep those countries in its exclusive zone of influence.

Poland, in turn, perceives Ukraine as an EU member in a relatively near future, and the other post-Soviet states Georgia, perhaps with time Moldova, and certainly post-Lukashenka Belarus in close relations with Europe. Those two strategies are irreconcilable.

The SECOND issue: energy commodities and the Polish fuel market. Russia is interested in monopolising supplies and promoting Russian investment in the broadly meant energy sector. Russian companies are an instrument of Moscow's foreign policy. That policy concerns all of Europe, but Poland in particular.

Given the above, it has to be admitted that Russia has reasons to feel irritated. The prospect of the moderate right winning the upcoming elections means that the controversial issues will further intensify.

The PO-PiS coalition, if it is successfully formed, will certainly attach great significance to close and friendly relations with Ukraine. It will also try to diversify oil and gas supplies, partly with transit through Ukraine something that Russia has so far managed to prevent.

The new government will also subject the Polish fuel market and all the related issues to closer scrutiny. The parliamentary committee of inquiry into PKN Orlen has already revealed such a strong involvement of official and unofficial Russian factors in this area that new regulations will need to be urgently passed. The very exposing of the mechanisms used by Russia to gain influence has to be irritating enough for the Kremlin.

In this situation, the various Russian secret services can be expected to carry out operations aimed at discrediting the centre-right parties, such as the PO and the PiS, to strengthen the position of not only leftwing formations but also those rightwing ones that Russia perceives as friendly.

Using historical issues to tarnish Poland's image in the EU is an even more tangible threat. As a result of such efforts, Poland appears as an irrational, quarrelsome country that lives in the past and thus attacks all its neighbours.

It is impossible, writes Strzelczyk, to talk about history in an honest and adequate way without remembering the Russians and the Germans who started world war II, who was its victim, and what are the moral and political consequences of that.

This, however, again puts Poland in the face of a propaganda war with two enemies. And weakens its position in the EU. For while it is clear that Poland's eastern policy should be part of the EU's policy towards Russia, respecting Poland's interests in the EU policy is a different matter altogether. Warsaw has few arguments convincing for Brussels and formulating them is what it should focus on.

The anniversaries pass and very well, let the atmosphere around them calm down. This does not mean that we should forget about history, but rather that we should look at it anew.

The shifting of stress in presenting historical issues such as the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact or Katyn should consist in remembering what has already been achieved and going forward, rather than stubbornly returning to the starting point.

And quite a lot has been achieved: Russia, formerly the Soviet Union, admitted officially that the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact had been invalid from the point of view of international law. It also admitted that Katyn was a work of the Russians. Discussing those issues anew could tempt Russia to backtrack on its earlier statements. Poland should adopt the principle that issues once agreed will not be discussed again.

An issue that needs to be taken up are war reparations, especially compensations for Poles sent to forced labour and exile in the Soviet Union. The issue, present in Polish-Russian talks for a decade now, has been progressing at a very slow pace. Efforts must be made to bring it to completion, Forced labour compensations already have a precedent, and it is time they became a European standard.

Russia has been loathe to pay the compensations, and has deliberately kept the dispute at an early stage, arguing that it lacks the funds and its own victims of Stalinism were paid only pennies.

Those are unacceptable arguments. As the Soviet Union's continuator, Russia has been paying the Soviet debts without protest. It is therefore time it started paying out compensations. It is the only historical issue that should be Poland's priority today. Warsaw should make all it can for the Polish claims to be understood and supported by Brussels.

As far as economic issues are concerned, the first-rate issue is the planned Baltic gas pipeline linking Russian gas deposits with western Europe. The pipeline will be an alternative for the Yamal pipeline crossing through Poland.

Perhaps it would be worth reminding the Russians that they are bound by a contract under which two lines of the Yamal were supposed to be developed, whereas only one has been developed and that is supposed to be it.

For that reason, Poland will incur substantial financial losses, and it would make sense to demand damages or start talks on alternative solutions offsetting them. Contracts should be kept. Russia does not stand above the law.

The Polish-Russian conflict, political, not historical, is therefore a fact. It cannot be avoided. Too much sets the two countries apart.

In fact, those divisions are inevitable if Poland is to retain its identity and not return from the European and euroatlantic path it has chosen. In its own interest, but also in Europe's. It is worth making sure that Brussels understands this.

"The Polish-Russian conflict, political, not historical, is therefore a fact. It cannot be avoided. Too much sets the two countries apart.

In fact, those divisions are inevitable if Poland is to retain its identity and not return from the European and euroatlantic path it has chosen. In its own interest, but also in Europe's. It is worth making sure that Brussels understands this."
translation
"Historically we have problems, neither of us can solve them; fore till you have old guard in Kremlin nothing would change this goes well with some of our guys in Warsaw. Before this gets personal and goes out of window, I would like to remind you; we have bigger problems to deal with it. History are pages passing as by in lightning speed; however memories are not easy to erase. Lets take this to a level higher then political debate; sense of one creates sense of two in metaphorically speaking = both sides better calm down and work something out; though looking at it; its impossible to reach agreement with Putin. I'm usually laid back lady; however I will stand by my country and reason to reach agreement. I will not stand by deceit and lies that are coming from Kremlin. Putin is playing a very dangerous game; we: like Russians know very well chess game. This may go well with west it won’t fly with us. Slavs have distinctive mentality and we know where points are move; response would be according of opponent moves. Do not underestimate my country; as well, don’t underestimate Russian people; warning for US president; Putin is playing game; time for US President to respond in right way and don't hesitate; Putin is not your soul mate: poison of flower can be deceiving. I'm writing in metaphor in order for you to fathom reality of danger we are all in. More dangerous is war that has already started; sad is life of a blind man.”Dzieki/thank you

POLAND AND RUSSIA HAVE CONFLICTING STRATEGIC INTERESTS ==

It is polish opinion. Partly devised from overesteem of poles.

In Russia people doesn't know that they "conflict" with someone over Ukraine.
So silly idea:)).

Ukranians are our brothers. Now our relations partly difficult since they are so "independent". Let them be.
Let see what will be in future.

Now we all just try to get rich.

If your read more than headline, then you should know that it is conflict of strategic interest between governments not nations.==

Lukasz what mentioned by article stategic interests? I don't really understand. Forget article, its full of imaginaries.
Just think and tell what real strategic interests maybe today?

Today Russia has the huge pile of nukes so no one in the world will try to touch russian territory. Maybe except terrorists.
Russia has territory so big that it will take centuries to develop it.

I'd say that today economical priorities of Russia lay in high techonology and science in area of russian specialization. ENERGY PRODUCTION.
Hydrogen based energy technology. Thermonuclier reactor. DO you know that planned europian thermonuclier reactor based on work of soviet-russian scientists?

Here Russia has strategic interests if you want. How Ukraine, Moldavia, Georgia can help Russia in her priotity areas? They cann't. They lost everything they got during soviet times. Scientists gone, institutions buildings rust. Russia lost something but not all.

SO russian stategic interest lays in developed countries today. France, Germany, Italy, Britain and so on.

Today Russia needs peace to develop herself in high speed. SO she try to make peace with neibors.
Russia needs markets to sell for her energy products. So she need good and honest neibors who will buy and pay.

That is all with Ukraine and others.

So if Ukraine or whoever else want to hug and kiss any alse let it be. It is nothing to do with Russia till they all pay in time and doesn't steal gas.

What are Poland's interests in Russia? In principle, there are only THREE: [1] regulating the historical issues, [2] access to the Russian markets, and [3] supplies of Russian energy commodities.

And what are Russia's interests in Poland? Only ONE: dominating Poland's energy and fuel markets.

Has Poland ever think to get its oil from Central Asia? It is a little far, but there is one project to build an oil pipeline through Bulgaria from Central Asia, and it might be brought from the junction in Bulgaria through Ukraine and into Poland. That will allow Poland to rely less on Russian oil.

Has Poland ever think to get its oil from Central Asia?

We must build pipeline from Polish Plock to Ukrainian city of Brody. I hope that when rightist will won elections they at last start to do something in this direction. Actually from few years we hear only plans. I read that both Ukrainians and Poles talking with the Kazakhs, the crucial partner in that deal.

It is a little far, but there is one project to build an oil pipeline through Bulgaria from Central Asia, and it might be brought from the junction in Bulgaria through Ukraine and into Poland. That will allow Poland to rely less on Russian oil.

You mean probably Bulgaria-Macedonia-Albania project? To be honest it is next potential threat, cause this pipe will suck Caspian oil, like Baku-Thibilisi-Ceyhan and Russian pipe from Kazakhstan. Question, is whether Kazakhstan is able to provide its oil to all pipes?

You mean probably Bulgaria-Macedonia-Albania project?

I don't know if it is the same program but this is my source below.
EUROPE: GAS PIPELINE FROM CENTRAL ASIA PLANNED

I think I have heard some where it was a route through Turkey and into Europe. By the way, it was the first time I heard about the Bulgaria-Macedonia-Albania oil pipeline project, if it were not the same. Anyways, I think Poland and Ukraine would be able to benefit from that project as well. The only thing Poland and Ukraine would have to do is ask Bulgaria to connect a junction from Bulgaria and take it northwards through Romania, Ukraine and into Poland. What about the route from Kazakhstan? Is this a route to go through Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Black Sea? If so, not bad. At least it doesn't go through Russia which they may cut the oil when they want. If these two were different, I think it would still be benificial, so that Poland may have two pipes from a direction for one to be used for emergency incuding political unrest within one route.

Question, is whether Kazakhstan is able to provide its oil to all pipes?

Good question. Guess what. That is where China gets involved. Poland, Ukraine and other European countries interested in the oil from that country would have to get Kazakhstan out of influence by China so that it will be more likely for Kazakhstan to provide more oil to the European countries instead of China. China is attempting to strengthen relations with Kazakhstan and building up a oil pipeline with Kazakhstan that would allow China to dominate the oil from that country. Poland and other European countries will have to invest and do more business with Kazakhstan so Poland would have more political influence over Kazakhstan and gain more chance of getting larger shares of oil. Isn't it exciting that Poland is playing oil wars with China that is in the Far East? This might be something that US, Poland and other European countries may come together to get rid of China's political influence by investing more in Kazakhstan.

By the way, do you have any source about the Bulgaria-Macedonia-Albania route? I would like to know more about it.

As much as I would like to see Polish-Russian relations improved after centuries of hostility between two Slavic nations, unfortunately it won't be possible with current Putin regime. All that is needed is to say that black is black and white is white meaning that Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and Katyn massacre are indefensible crimes and is part of communist crimes.

Otherwise Eastern Europeans keep on equating Russia with Soviet Union because Russian leadership again tries to whitewash the Soviet Regime crimes. Acknowledging and outright condemning all the Communist Regime crimes will be a big step in improving Russian-Polish and wider Russian-E.Europe relations.

thank you"Wiz" "She has good article but it’s in polish; unless Lukasz would like to put some of it in English or she will see if this can be translated. Let’s get back to Oil/Gas situation. This wouldn't be a problem if Kremlin would stop acting irrational and stop their animosity towards Warsaw. There are also financial difficulties that need to be iron out. You also don't want to go over territories with political instability which could further derail project. Kazakhstan could be an answer however it also could create headaches. What we have is strategic impasse and these folds well with Kremlin Strategic Energy document release in 2003 which outlines Kremlin energy policies towards 2020. Hopefully animosity can be put aside and something can be workout between these two Kremlin and Warsaw."+

"Wiz if you need help in translation of this map let her know, I can't speak for Lukasz; though I would think he would help you as well" thank you"Wiz"

Why they are so angry that their candidate lost elections in Ukraine, why they supporting separatists and de facto occupying Georgian and Moldovian territories?==

You mixed 2 problem as one quetion.

As far as I know no one angry on result of election in Ukraine. Don't you notice where Yuschenko went in his first time foreign visit as president? Moscow.

Russia don't support separatists.
Accually in Georgia live different ethnicity, name: abhazi. They never have been as part of Georgia. Stalin made them in 1930th. SO they proclaimed themselves free.
In 1993 georgians attacked them and war began. Russia wan't involved.
All abhazian people went to war and won over Georgia. Accualy it was Russia who saved Shevarnadze who personally commanded georgians from abhazi encirlement.
Today abhazies simply loathe georgians.
So it is just one of local wars when one ethnicity got free from bigger.

If you are for freedom then you may support abhazies.

Moldavia is same thing. Dnestri republic are populated by nonmoldavians. SO they break free form them. It was moldavians who started local war in 1992(?).
All population took arms and drove moldavians back. They loathe moldavian ever since.

Russia hold huge soviet time weaponry depots there. It is all from Russia involvement. Dnestri republic doesn't allow Russia to evacuate those depots until there no peace treatyu with Moldavia.

FYI Ukraine plays bigger role there. Since it is thier border and population of Dnestri republic connected with Ukraine. Ukranian nationalists fought moldavians in 1992 on side of Dnestri republic.

All that is needed is to say that black is black and white is white meaning that Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and Katyn massacre are indefensible crimes and is part of communist crimes. ==

Sergey you are pathetic again.

None in Russia defends those acts! WHo many times you may repeat your nonsense?
Russia goes against that when poles tells that russians are responsible for that ALONE. Soviet Union wasn't Russia (just look name!) hence russians cann't be responsible for Soviet Union.

Pilsudskii' Poland opposite was polish state. And Pilsudskii' Poland itself partitioned Checkoslovakia in 1938 with same Hitler in same type of pact like Molotov-Ribbentrop.
SO for JUSTICE poles has to shut up since they did same thing to other country which was done to thiers but did even before Soviet Union. Looks who started it!

Dzieki "sergey1973"/Thank you
translation
"I concur. I don't like putting all people in one sentence. Neither Russian nor Polish people have anything to do with this. This is strictly political impasse by two stubborn old gentlemen who just can't let it go. Putin is impossible to work with so are some of our guys in Belweder. I know where he’s heading and in which direction; question is can others see same thing? I know a lot of Russian people who are in 20's and are my good friends and they can't even stand him. We always find couple who are whacked out on both sides and this is what you get; absolute cluster rollercoaster."thank you"Sergey1973"

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